Free Essay

Confirmation Bias

In: Psychology

Submitted By sugartitts
Words 276
Pages 2
“Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for information that confirms one’s preconceptions. We are eager to verify our beliefs but less inclined to seek evidence that might disprove them” (Myers, 2007). With that being said people believe that their emotions, thoughts, and judgments are right based on their beliefs based on what they can prove if they can. They may structure their judgment by confirming or searching for ways to provide evidence on their beliefs. In addition, people at times ignore theories that go against what they believe in. “Experiments have repeatedly found that people tend to test hypotheses in a one-sided way, by searching for evidence consistent with the hypothesis they hold at a given time. Rather than searching through all the relevant evidence, they ask questions that are phrased so that an affirmative answer supports their hypothesis. They look for the consequences that they would expect if their hypothesis were true, rather than what would happen if it were false” (Wikipedia, 2011). People will refuse to hear things that are not based on their beliefs, even if someone tries to prove that they are wrong with evidence. One example is religion, there are so many different cultures with different religions (that no matter if one religion like Jehovah witnesses, tries to convince a Christian believer that Jehovah witnesses is the true salvation) people will stick to what they believe in. A Christian believer will reject any thought in their mind that’s against what they believe in. People’s perception is the world, what they see and why they see it, and how they will systematize what they distinguish.

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Confirmation Bias

...Confirmation Bias PSY/285 July 2, 2015 Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias can influence perceptions for things that have already occurred but also, our predictions of what may yet occur. We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we want to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we wanted to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions. . Our perception of these truths is what we need to confirm within ourselves so we tend to put ourselves up on that pedestal and talk down onto others. We do this just so we can search for a way to be correct in our minds. It helps us to live with our bad decisions and is a coping mechanism for our errors and faults. We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we wanted to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions. We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we wanted to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions. Self-confirmations motivate us to verify our self-conceptions so that we truly believe that they are true. We want to enhance our......

Words: 415 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Lol 009

...| Confirmation Bias | PSY/285 Why can’t we all just get along | | 8/1/2014 | | Confirmation bias also known as the (myside bias) is a propensity that’s meant for individuals to honor their figures to prove an assumption. This means that a person will put together different types of facts they want to remember and use it in a way that fits their idea. Confirmation bias can pressure ideas of past experiences, but also our future guess of what is going to happen. Our understandings and guesses are known as confirmation bias and can cause their own proving.. Overconfidence which is the master of confirmation bias can be started with the shortage of knowing what the subject or chore is. A person may ask a over confident person how well they are at a chore knowing that the over confident person had no clue about the task , the overconfident person would reply with a confidence “ stating I would be great for that’. The overconfidence could possibly be raised because of the persons lack of knowledge of what the task consist of. Many times our memories will lead us to distance into a untrue mindset of confidence, we remember times when we were almost correct. Our mind often remembers what is wanted instead of actual true data, often hearing what is selected to be heard. Many times we convince ourselves there are causes for our smaller conscious decisions. A wonder that fortifies confirmation bias happening known as intellectual deceit .Such examples of (I......

Words: 397 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Heuristics and Biases Illustrations

...tends to rely on these heuristic methods which lend themselves to bias, which in turn negatively influences important decision making, and can lead to faulty or non-optimal judgments. Therefore, the resulting errors from applying heuristics are biases. Many biases are documented, namely overconfidence, confirmation trap, hindsight bias, etc. The confirmation bias refers to the tendency to selectively search for and consider information that confirms one's beliefs. It is a consequence of the way perception works. Beliefs shape expectations, which in turn shape perceptions, which then shape conclusions. Thus we see what we expect to see and conclude what we expect to conclude. People use confirmation bias to prove themselves right and hold on to beliefs that we believe to be true. Confirmation bias also helps us overlook any information that may disprove our belief. Like in the case of my friend Julia, who used to work as a bartender and had a pair of lucky jeans that she liked to wear to work. She felt that as long as she wore those jeans, she would make good money that night and it would be a good night. However, there were several nights that it did not go as well as she would have liked but because she had convinced herself that her lucky jeans were lucky, she still had that expectation of getting a good amount money and being an good night whenever she would wear them. So in this case Julia used confirmation bias to push the things that have happened at work while she......

Words: 1216 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Giant Pool of Money

...Giant Pool of Money In this radio story about the events leading up to the subprime mortgage crisis, it’s clearly demonstrated that a few psychological biases and heuristics were present and played important roles in forming the crisis. The most critical ones I’ve identified are the confirmation bias and the social proof phenomenon in the development of the crisis. Confirmation Bias Mainly two types of confirmation bias were observed in the subprime crisis: the confirmation trap as well as anchoring heuristics. Anchoring caused the banks to miscalculate real risks of the mortgages and related MBS/CDO, while the confirmation trap caused most people in the industry to ignore potential risks and keep playing the dangerous game. Bazerman and Moore defined the anchoring heuristic as “Individuals make estimates for values based on an initial value (derived from past events…), and typically make insufficient adjustments from that anchor when establishing a final value.” And the Wall Street banks made exactly this mistake leading up to the mortgage crisis. When estimating the default rate for subprime mortgage products, Wall Street banks used historical data which indicated an average default rate of 2%, then extrapolated to estimate the absolute worst-case scenario to be at worst 10% to 12%. However, such anchoring is misleading because most of the data were years old were based on loans with strict income, asset and credit requirements. On the contrary, the subprime loans on......

Words: 1006 - Pages: 5

Free Essay

Bias

...Lately, the concept of unconscious bias or “hidden bias” has come into the forefront of our work as diversity advocates because the dynamics of diversity are changing as we enter the 21st Century. Our tradition paradigm has generally assumed that patterns of discriminatory behavior in organizations are conscious; that people who know better do the right thing, and those who do not cause bias. As a result, we have developed a “good person/bad person” paradigm of diversity: a belief that good people are not biased, but inclusive, and that bad people are the biased ones (R. Cook 2008). Forms of unconscious bias with foreign employees: Out of the 10 unconscious biases mentioned in the article by Cook Ross (2014), I have noted the following to have a negative impact on the international business relations. Diagnosis bias, having foreign employees from India, employees make a quick decision on how to act with a person just based on initial perceived opinion. Pattern recognition, employees decide that if the Indian employee has completed a task wrong once before, they will do it wrongly again. Value attribution, employees consider that foreign Indian employees have values that they take for granted. Confirmational behavior, employees in Finland have noted to consider that what confirms their beliefs and then ignore what contradicts their beliefs while also disregarding the facts that contradict their points of view. Automatic perception, the Finnish employees have a reflexive......

Words: 894 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Reasining

...that support your point of view or that rebut mine. Accordingly, reasoning should display a confirmation bias: it should be more likely to find arguments that support our point of view or rebut those that we oppose. Short (but emphatic) answer: it does, and very much so. The confirmation bias is one of the most robust and prevalent biases in reasoning. This is a very puzzling trait of reasoning if reasoning had a classical, Cartesian function of bettering our beliefs—especially as the confirmation bias is responsible for all sorts of mischief (cf. prediction #4). Interestingly, the confirmation bias needs not be a drag on a group’s ability to argue. To the extent that it is mostly the production, and not the evaluation of arguments that is biased—and that seems to be the case—then a group of people arguing should still be able to settle on the best answer, despite the confirmation bias (which they do, cf. prediction #2). As a matter of fact, the confirmation bias can then even be considered a form of division of cognitive labor: instead of all group members having to laboriously go through the pros and cons of each option, if each member is biased towards one option, she will find the pros of that options, and the cons of the others—which is much easier—and the others will do their own bit. Prediction #4. When people reason alone, there is often nothing to hold their confirmation bias in check. This might lead to distortions of their beliefs. As mentioned above, this is very......

Words: 2312 - Pages: 10

Free Essay

Bias

...Bias is “Prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair,” as defined by the oxford dictionary. History is a subject that studies the history of the past events where historians express their judgment. In the recorded history, we often come across cases were we are able to discern bias in ones viewpoint. Few years ago, India experienced one of the most disastrous terrorist attacks on the decade. The 2008 Mumbai attacks, which dated from the 26th November 2008 to 29th November 2008. There was a lot of controversy as to who was the main culprit of these attacks. The ties between the two countries – India and Pakistan have been frail and contentious, therefore before any evidence was brought to the eyes of the world; already a lot of bias was perceptible not only by the Indian media but also American officials. Through this essay I want to objectively explore the confirmation bias that is deeply woven into the fabric of the language used by the media to inform us about the history of the Mumbai attacks. Confirmation bias is a “is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.” Looking back at the history of India and Pakistan, the bond between the two countries has been extremely fragile. Any mishap in the two countries automatically victimizes the other one and vice versa. The modern world can be referred to as the information society as every individual or...

Words: 967 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Small Team

...and work together effectively, avoiding important pitfalls is the best way to reach those goals. [What a successful rethinking and recreation of your introduction! Your introduction is excellent! ] First of all, confirmation bias should be avoided in order to make a small group work well. Confirmation bias is the circumstance that members in the group gather information selectively or interpret evidence in a biased way. Garold Stasser, a social psychologist, conducted an experiment on confirmation bias with a group of eight people. He gave two pieces of information to every member of the group; additionally, two members received two more pieces of information, and only one member was given another two. Stasser found that even if there were six pieces of helpful information, each group member used just the two shared pieces of information that they similarly had for their discussions and dismissed the four extra details (as cited in Surowiecki, p. 445-446). In other words, the decisions which were made from this group were entirely based on a very limited analysis and supply of information since they did not consider all evidence equally. This study suggests that consequential mistakes might occur because a group looks at evidence in a biased way. Confirmation bias is also relevant to the action that people in a group try to interpret information in a way that confirms their conclusion. This means that the group does not begin discussion with information that it has; on......

Words: 1433 - Pages: 6

Free Essay

Management Organization

...Biases i. Confirmation Bias ii. Hindsight Bias iii. Escalation of Commitment iv. Positive (ego-centric) Illusions c. Emotion-related Biases i. Priming 6. The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is an error that occurs when the conditional probability of some hypothesis H given some evidence E is assessed without taking into account the prior probability ("base rate") of H and the total probability of evidence E. 7. The misconception of chance is another bias. Often, especially while gambling, we interpret a ‘normal’ event as rare, believing that chance will ‘correct’ a series of rare events. For instance, every week you buy a lottery ticket and tell yourself that this is the week that you will become a multimillionaire – when the fact is that the odds of this happening are upward of one in several million 8. In regression to the mean fallacy- The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. When his pain got worse, he went to a doctor, after which the pain subsided a little. Therefore, he benefited from the doctor's treatment. The pain subsiding a little after it has gotten worse is more easily explained by regression towards the mean. Assuming it was caused by the doctor is fallacious. 9. Conjunction Fallacy- The conjunction fallacy is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one 10. Anchor adjustment- Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive......

Words: 702 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Psych

...Pop Culture paper Psychology 12/6/14 Confirmation bias in Family Guy There are a lot of psychology principals and theories shown in animated television shows because it is easy to show how true and funny they really are. There is a clip in the television show called, family guy. The clip starts out as Lois and another person are trying to run for government and they are taking questions from undecided voters to see who will be mayor. It then goes to an undecided voter who asks a question to the guy Lois is running against and instead of answering the question the guy just goes up to the undecided voter and shakes his hand and looks him in the eye. The voter replies “Oh I like him he looks me in the eye” and there is a commotion among the crowd and someone says “I am voting for him”. It then goes to Lois who is very confused because she does not get why the people love the other guy when he did not even answer the question. Then Brian who is a different character on the show says “Just say short things that everyone agrees on”. So then it is Lois turn to answer a question from the undecided voters and it did not matter what the question was she kept replying “911 is bad.” The crowd of undecided cheered every time she said that despite the fact that 9-11 had nothing to do with the questions. For example one time she said that 911 is bad someone from the crowd said I agree with that like as if he was going to vote for her just because of that. This fits in psychology......

Words: 694 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

Giant Pool of Money

...The Giant Pool of Money The individuals in the radio story fell prey to the confirmation bias/heuristic and availability bias/heuristic. The confirmation bias refers to “The tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms Preconceptions”. The giant pool of money, which refers the subset of global savings allocated for fixed income securities, amounted to $70 trillion in 2006. In this case, the central banker held fed interest rate to a low level of 1%. The global army of investment managers, who managed the $70 trillion giant pool of money, wanted a low-risk high-return investment as the US treasury bonds didn’t look attractive at 1% interest. These investment managers invested in mortgage backed-securities (MBS) via big investment firms at Wall Street. Mike Francis, executive director at Morgan Stanley on the residential mortgage trading desk, sold financial instrument MBS to the global pool of money. To meet the high demands of global pool of money for MBS, Mike Francis needed to buy as many mortgages as possible to make MBS. Mike bought mortgages from mortgage banks and repacked them to MBS. People like Mike Francis were link to the global of money. Mike Garner, an employee at Silver State Mortgage, the largest private mortgage bank in Nevada, bought the individual mortgages and bundled 200 or 300 of them together, and then sold them up the chain to Wall Street investment banks, to guys like Mike Francis. The pool of money demand for these......

Words: 898 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

Seven Floors Social Pscychology

...A concept can be used to help understand the main purpose of something or to help explain it. An example of a concept in the story that stood out was the hindsight bias. The hindsight bias is the tendency to exaggerate after learning an outcome. On page 4 in the beginning of the third paragraph, Givoni was asked to move to a different room due to a mother needing to be near her children and he graciously agreed. After agreeing the head nurse stated, “ such courageous act doesn’t surprise me coming from a person like yourself.” The nurse acted as though he expected Givoni to say yes but only knew this after the fact. The way the nurse was able to get Giovani to agree to move was by using the low ball technique. The low ball technique is a tactic used to get someone to agree to something with chances of agreeing to something larger. It wasn’t until after Giovanni agree when he threw in that the room he would have to move to was on a lower floor. Giovani was displeased but still agreed . Another concept that can be found in the story was the self serving bias. The self serving bias is the tendency to perceive oneself favorable. In the story Givoni compared himself to the general population on each floor he was moved to. For example, on page 6 in the beginning of paragraph 3 Givoni demonstrated the self-serving bias by believing he was the most fortunate in the section. Granted he only thought that because he was going off what the doctors, nurses and patients were telling......

Words: 936 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

Lala

...following do you believe most Californians would say causes more deaths in the U.S.? A. Shark attack B. Being struck by a falling part or object from an airplane ‐‐Chemical company example… Anchoring Tendency 12/19/14 Anchoring and Adjustment •We make assessments by starting from an initial value and adjusting away from that to form a final judgment. However, the adjustment from the anchor is typically insufficient. •Example—real estate appraisers Confirmation Tendency Confirmation Tendency • We have preferences/hypotheses and then tend to seek confirming evidence in support, and we give confirming evidence greater weight than disconfirming evidence. 12/19/14 Confirmation Tendency • We have preferences/hypotheses and then tend to seek confirming evidence in support, and we give confirming evidence greater weight than disconfirming evidence. • Study of experienced Big‐4 tax professionals… Last Tendency… Overconfidence Bias Overconfidence Bias Most of us are overconfident in our judgment abilities and do not acknowledge the actual level of uncertainty that exists. 12/19/14 Overconfidence among Experts • “Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossible” Overconfidence among Experts • “Heavier‐than‐air flying machines are impossible” Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of the British Royal Society, c. 1895 Overconfidence among Experts •......

Words: 1172 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

Critical Thinking

...article based on week two assignment questions. According to the book we have to always evaluate our “claim” free from mistakes and biases through various perspectives. We have to provide logical supports as much as we can in order to achieve a correct knowledge and awareness (Boss, 2014, p. 109). Contradictory evidence, confirmation bias -In this article the author denies the existence of “flying saucer” based of the evidence of “flying saucer” has been seen by a lot of people who they would not be able to describe it in details how they look, so the article referring to this statement as not strong enough to support the fact of existing of “flying saucer” (Boss, 2014, p. 109). In my opinion author’s evaluation is based on contradictory evidence and confirmation bias. According to the meaning of contradictory evidence, the author instead of referring to the credible sources in order to prove the idea of not existing “flying saucer” he is using the indication of those people who would not be able to describe “flying saucer” in details, so this evaluation is presenting a contradictory evidence (Boss, 2014, p, 109- 131). I think there is a confirmation bias when the author refers to the definition of “UNKNOWNS” in related to “flying saucers” and indicates the insufficiency of “evidence” to validate them, it seems a belief is involved (Boss, 2014, p.109- 131). In my opinion the author does not make valid claims about evidence. It seems the author is rationalist and as we......

Words: 804 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

The 12 Cognitive Biases That Prevent You from Being Rational

...circular arguments, appeal to force, etc.). A cognitive bias, on the other hand, is a genuine deficiency or limitation in our thinking — a flaw in judgment that arises from errors of memory, social attribution, and miscalculations (such as statistical errors or a false sense of probability). Some social psychologists believe our cognitive biases help us process information more efficiently, especially in dangerous situations. Still, they lead us to make grave mistakes. We may be prone to such errors in judgment, but at least we can be aware of them. Here are some important ones to keep in mind. Confirmation Bias We love to agree with people who agree with us. It's why we only visit websites that express our political opinions, and why we mostly hang around people who hold similar views and tastes. We tend to be put off by individuals, groups, and news sources that make us feel uncomfortable or insecure about our views — what the behavioral psychologist B. F. Skinner called cognitive dissonance. It's this preferential mode of behavior that leads to the confirmation bias — the often unconscious act of referencing only those perspectives that fuel our pre-existing views, while at the same time ignoring or dismissing opinions — no matter how valid — that threaten our world view. And paradoxically, the internet has only made this tendency even worse. Ingroup Bias Somewhat similar to the confirmation bias is the ingroup bias, a manifestation of our innate tribalistic......

Words: 1880 - Pages: 8