Country Risk Analysis Venezuela

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Submitted By mcbranger
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Exercise country analysis and country risk Venezuela

Hypump, a US company producing hydraulic pumps used in oil producing industry, likes to investigate the possibility of starting a new subsidiary in Venezuela, and asked you to make a country analysis and country risk report.

The facts, key indicators and back ground information of Venezuela you found after research are presented in the Appendix.
Use that information to answer the following questions:

Moderate poverty and inequality have decreased from 1998 onwards due to the program called ‘Missiones’ according to the World bank (see appendix).

1. Use the fact sheet Venezuela whether this can be confirmed with figures.
Assess:
a. Level of development
b. Income inequality
2. Assess Venezuela’s export structure. What is it based on?

Use GDP and expenditure components for Q 3 and Q4 to assess Venezuela’s attractiveness from the table:
3. How can you see 2014 and 2015 are forecasts?
4. Characterize the phase of business cycle Venezuela has faced in 2013 and 2014 (Explain which key indicator(s) are used to answer the question)

5. Make a ‘first level analysis’ of the aggregate components of GDP to explain the economic (GDP) growth during 2013.
6. Explain the influence of imports on GDP in 2013.
7. Make a ‘second level’ analysis of the aggregate components of GDP to find some reason(s) for the movement of the various components.

‘The decrease in revenues from exports, mainly oil is consistent with lower oil production’
According to an internal government report, international reserves even plummet 33% in a year.

8. Which external position indicator has directly been influenced by the decrease in revenues of oil exports?
9. Explain whether the development this indicator shows, affects the transfer risk for the pump…...

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