# Decisions of Uncertainity

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Decisions of Uncertainty Introduction The Decision What is the probability of hiring a qualified employee upon selecting one from 52 applicants 26 are male and 26 are female? Probability Concepts The probability of the event –hiring a qualified male employee—is the proportion of times the company would expect to obtain a qualified male employee over the long run if the HR managers selected applicants many times. I will refer to each repetition of the situation – in this case the selection of a qualified male future employee—as a sampling experiment. The probability of the event is the proportion of times we would expect the event to occur in an infinitely long series of identical sampling experiments. The Outcome In this case, the probability of selecting a qualified male employee is 0 .50 or 50%. I arrived at this conclusion by using the knowledge that there are 52 applicants who areapplying for the open position, 26 are female and 26 are male. If the company assume that each of the 52 possibilities is equally likely, it is reasonable to expect that the company would select a male applicant that is qualified for the open position 0.50 of the time of a period of time ( 26/52 = ½ = 0.50 ). This illustrates the basic rule for obtaining probabilities in situations in which each of the possible outcomes is equally likely, the probability of the occurrence of an event is equal to the proportion of the possible outcomes characterized by the event. In the case of hiring a qualified male employee, 26, or 0.50, of the 52 possible outcomes will be characterized by the event “a qualified male employee.” Tradeoffs in accuracy and precision Conclusion References Duan, Li. “The uncertainity sensitivity index method (USIM) and its extension’, Naval Research Logistics, 1988. Haimes, Yacov Y. "Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis", Risk...

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