Demand Forecasting, Production Optimization and Capacity Management for Pran Food Products Bangladesh Limited

In: Business and Management

Submitted By fotkabazz
Words 3185
Pages 13
MGT314.8





DEMAND FORECASTING, PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION AND CAPACITY MANAGEMENT

FOR

PRAN FOOD PRODUCTS BANGLADESH LIMITED





Prepared By:
Abdullah Al Rafi 111 0129 530
SM Nabil Afroj 113 0818 030






Faculty: Dr. Kais Zaman






North South University

Table of Contents
Objectives 3

Brief Company Profile 4

Methodologies 5

Need for the forecasting 5

Forecasting Methods 8

Qualitative Analysis 10

Linear Programming 13

Conclusion 17

















Objectives
The primary objective is to find the demand and supply management techniques and the tools that the company uses to predict the demand for their products. The project will also determine the appropriate changes the company makes in their production process and their capacity management with regard to their forecasted demands.

Many companies were and are still established to derive financial profit. In this regard the main aim of PRAN RFL Group is to maximize (optimize) profit. This report is on using Linear programming technique along with forecasting methods to derive the maximum profit from production of soft drink for PRAN RFL, Bangladesh Ltd. Linear Programming of the operations of the company was formulated and optimum results derived using Microsoft Excel. The result shows that two particular items should be produced even when the company should satisfy demands of the other - not - so profitable items in the surrounding of the plants.























Brief Company Profile
PRAN GROUP was born in 1980. PRAN stands for Programme for Rural Advancement Nationally. Keeping in view the corporate mission of the group they have over the years diversified their activities. Today PRAN is the largest processors of fruits & vegetables in Bangladesh. They encourage contract farmers and help them grow…...

Similar Documents

Food Production

...INTRODUCTION Total quality is a description about the standard, attitude and culture of the company and the organization. Knowing the customer behavior and full fill the needs is as per the quality is very important for any organization by providing good services to their customers. Every organization should have made a strategy by which they can provide the quality standard of the guest in all the hotel chain. The standard should be maintain with the equipment, food & beverage services, accommodation and any transfer etc which understood the guests expectation( Gillespie & Morrison, 2001). Every strategy has a positive aim to deliver the excellence services and product with their experience. According to Drucker quality is not a goods which given by the supplier in a product or services, it is the things which increase the willingness to use it again and ready to pay for it. By John s. Oakland quality is a word which specifies the products or services excellence. Satisfied the requirements and internal or external needs of the customer is a good standard which every organization have to obey for their future. Quality makes a balance between customer and suppliers to get the aim. Quality means an organization which has an excellence standard of their product and the services of any things either goods or the staff, who gave the good services with the experiences. Right services in a right time and in a right place are a picture of a good company. (Taylor and Pearson...

Words: 2783 - Pages: 12

Food Policy Capacity of Bangladesh

... policy related research. * Department of Production Economics, Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Department of Agricultural Finance and Management within Sylhet Agricultural University also working for food policy of Bangladesh. * Think tanks * There are many independent policy think tanks in Bangladesh and also operating since the independence. * Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) is the first policy think tank founded in 1971 after the independence. Since then, this has remained as the leading nongovernmental policy think tanks and has contributed to identify, analyze, and respond the development policy issues including those in food and agriculture sectors. * The other two major policy think tanks that are actively engaged in food and agriculture related policy issues are Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI), Centre for Policy Dialogue * N on-profit research organization * BRAC established in 1972.It is the leading non-governmental organization that undertakes research on agricultural policy issues in Bangladesh. BRAC also operating other countries in Asia and Africa. * Economic Research Group conduct socioeconomic and policy research in agriculture and natural resource management sectors. Human, Financial and Physical Resource in Food Policy Research * Human Capacity * Human resource availability * There are total of 122 full-time equivalent (FTE) food policy researchers spread across...

Words: 1989 - Pages: 8

Demand Forecasting

... example, they might search for a single analogy that suits their prior beliefs. The structured-analogies method uses a formal process to overcome biased and inefficient use of information from analogous situations. To use the structured analogies method, an administrator prepares a description of the target situation and selects experts who are likely to know analogous situations; preferably from direct experience. The experts identify and describe analogous situations, rate their similarity to the target situation, and match the outcomes of their analogies with potential outcomes of the target situation. The administrator derives a forecast from each expert’s analysis of his most similar analogy; one forecast per expert. The limited research to date on structured analogies has been promising. Green and Armstrong (2007) found that structured analogies were 41% more accurate than unaided judgment in the difficult task of forecasting decisions in eight real conflicts, which included union-management disputes, a hostile takeover initiative, and a supply channel negotiation. The structured analogies method is especially appropriate when demand is affected by the actions of competitors, governments, or interest groups such as environmental and animal activists. Game theory The authors of textbooks and research papers recommend game theory for making forecasts about negotiations and other conflicts. Game theory involves identifying the incentives that motivate parties and deducing......

Words: 12973 - Pages: 52

Forecasting Hotel Demand

...? * We have not include while calculating the dates on which the rooms sold exceeded the capacity of 198 rooms – as the solver could not be run and the hotel had overbooked based on the demand * As per the optimization model the rates for which on a particular day the PU value is zero in thee below given matrix, Table -2 are closed for the particular date and corresponding rate * As per the optimization model run all the rates for which the final value the solver sensitivity analysis is zero are closed as mentioned in Table -3 Table – 2 Q3 - How will you overbook? Come up with a strategy (no calculations needed) * We can develop a strategy for overbooking based on the newsvendor model * Here we have 2 separate parameters to consider when over booking a)No show no behave on the customers who have booked the hotel b) protection level set by the hotel for revenue maximization * The no show scenario can be modeled as a binomial distribution with P as the probability of a show and 1-P as a probability of a no show * A probability density function can be derived from the forecasts and used to determine the protection level for each of the following scenarios * Protection level for a $119 room vs $135 room * Protection level for a $135 room vs $205 room * Prottection level for a $ 205 room vs $235 room * These can be used to calculate the critical news vendor ratio in each case and the cost of over stocking. Reference:......

Words: 515 - Pages: 3

Demand Forecasting

...DEMAND AND FORECASTING FOR Forestville, MD As one of the premier fast food establishments, Domino’s Pizza has had a long history of satisfying the hunger pains of millions of consistently faithful customers with its mouth watering pizza and other food selections in its product offerings such as pizza bread, sandwiches and party chicken wings. A fan favorite amongst pizza connoisseurs worldwide and internationally, its management and executive team are considering other potential locations to call Domino’s Pizza home. With thousands of highly successful domestic franchises already situated throughout the United States, Domino’s Pizza is interested in entering into the fast food marketplace in Maryland. One of the commercial retail territories that Domino’s Pizza is considering establishing dominance is in the Forestville suburb of Prince George’s County, Maryland. In order to make analyze whether or not Forestville, Maryland will prove to further establish Domino’s Pizza as the global giant in pizza satisfaction, Domino’s Pizza has enlisted our company to provide a thorough recommendation on whether or not it will be beneficial for their company to plan to build a Domino’s Pizza franchise in the vicinity of Forestville, Maryland. Based on information contained within the body of the company’s 2011 Annual Report, Domino’s Pizza accounted for “4,513 franchise stores and 394 company-owned stores domestically,” (Domino’s Pizza, 2011). These impressive numbers highlight the...

Words: 1735 - Pages: 7

Demand Forecasting, Production Optimization and Capacity Management for Pran Food Products Bangladesh Limited

...MGT314.8 DEMAND FORECASTING, PRODUCTION OPTIMIZATION AND CAPACITY MANAGEMENT FOR PRAN FOOD PRODUCTS BANGLADESH LIMITED Prepared By: Abdullah Al Rafi 111 0129 530 SM Nabil Afroj 113 0818 030 Faculty: Dr. Kais Zaman North South University Table of Contents Objectives 3 Brief Company Profile 4 Methodologies 5 Need for the forecasting 5 Forecasting Methods 8 Qualitative Analysis 10 Linear Programming 13 Conclusion 17 Objectives The primary objective is to find the demand and supply management techniques and the tools that the company uses to predict the demand for their products. The project will also determine the appropriate changes the company makes in their production process and their capacity management with regard to their forecasted demands. Many companies were and are still established to derive financial profit. In this regard the main aim of PRAN RFL Group is to maximize (optimize) profit. This report is on using Linear programming technique along with forecasting methods to derive the maximum profit from production of soft drink for PRAN RFL, Bangladesh Ltd. Linear Programming of the operations of the company was formulated and optimum results derived using Microsoft Excel. The result shows that two particular items should be produced even when the company should satisfy demands of the other - not - so profitable items in the surrounding of the...

Words: 3185 - Pages: 13

Forecasting Demand

... — — — — — 8 20 15 26 2013 48 — — — — — 21 — 17 12 2014 — 28 Nov 36 58 9 Dec 18 18 35 Total 164 162 142 Exhibit 4 : Monthly New Bottle Warehouse Transfers (in thousands of cases) Source: Company files. Year Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 N/A N/A 5 — — — 10 8 19 32 2013 32 16 — — — — 27 16 18 — 2014 35 22 Nov 18 — Dec 9 18 Total 101 127 PAST BOTTLE PURCHASES Prior to 2009, because of a tight working capital situation, the plant manager controlled expenditures for new bottles closely so that just enough were available to meet demand. In 2010, extra funds became available and this policy was relaxed. Because of an unexpectedly large increase in sales during 2011, however, Krishnan’s new bottle order of 66,000 cases in 2010 was barely large enough. By mid-February of 2011, the company ran out of finished goods and empty bottles in the warehouse. Bottling operations were cut back in the plant, and capacity depended on the speed at which daily empty returns were washed. Delivery salesmen waited for the finished goods to load their trucks. February sales suffered with this bottle shortage crisis and were 17,000 cases less, than in February of 2010. In 2011, Krishnan made sure sufficient bottles would be available and ordered 182,000 cases; in 2012, 195,000 cases were ordered. Empty bottle stocks at the end of February 2013 were the highest in the company’s history, and he reduced the 2013 order to 122,000 cases. Krishnan always met with......

Words: 2265 - Pages: 10

Capacity Management

...2. Flow rate or capacity of each resource. a. Receptionist: capacity = (1 patient / 3 min) (60 min/hr) = 20 patients / hr b. Changing Rooms: Each patient requires 5 min in step 2 as well as 5 minutes in step 6 for a total of ten minutes. capacity = (1 patient / 10 min) (60 min/hr) (3 changing rooms) = 18 patients / hr c. Nurse 1: capacity = (1 patient / 6min) (60 min / hr) = 10 patients / hr d. Nurse 2: capacity = [1 patient / (3 + 1 min)] (60 min / hr) = 15 patients /hr e. Nurse 3 / MRI Machine: capacity = (1 patient / 10 min) (60 min / hr) = 6 patients / hr 3. Bottleneck is Nurse 3/MRI Machine because that resource’s capacity is least. The process capacity is the bottleneck because the maximum number of patients this setup can handle is 6 patients per hour, no more. 4. The best case lead time for one patient without delays is 33 minutes, calculated by the time it takes without delays to go through all six steps- 3 min (step1) + 5 min (step2) + 6 min (step3) + 4 min (step 4) + 10 min (step 5) + 5 min (step 6) = 33 minutes. 5. If a patient could start at step 6 to begin the day, the bottleneck of 6 patients per hour should be multiplied by 12 hours to determine that 72 patients should be scheduled in a day. However, with a patient required to begin at step 1 at 8am, patient #1 does not reach step 5 (the bottleneck of 10 min) till 8:19am. Therefore, from 8:19 am to 7:49pm, Nurse 3 / MRI...

Words: 534 - Pages: 3

Hr Demand: Demand Forecasting Techniques

... | |2008 |3600 |193 |18.64 | |2009 |3850 |207 |1864 | This technique is also known as trend analysis. Index or trend analysis reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the number of employees required by the organization (demand for labour). Although sales level is probably the most common index used by organizations, other operational indices include (1) the number of units produced, (2) the number of client served, and (3) the production (i.e., direct labour) hours. There are five steps to conducting an effective index/trend analysis. (1) Select the appropriate business/operational index: The HR forecaster must select a readily available business index, such as sales level, that is (i) known to have a direct influence on the organizational demand for labour, and (ii) subjected to future forecasting as a result of the normal business planning process. (2) Track the business index over time: Once the index has been selected, it is necessary to go back in time for at least the four or five most recent years, but preferably for a decade or more, to record the quantitative or numerical levels of the index over time. (3) Track the workforce size over time: The forecaster......

Words: 1911 - Pages: 8

Methods of Demand Forecasting

... used in the production of this final product. The end-use technique of demand forecasting comprises of four different stages of estimation. (1) Obtain the information about the potential uses of the product in question... (2) Determine suitable technical ‘norms’ of consumption for each and every use of the product under study. (3) For the application of the norms, it is necessary to know the desired or targeted levels of output of the individual industries for the reference year and also the likely development in other economic activities which use the product and the likely output targets. (4) Finally, the product-wise content of the item for which the demand is to be forecast, is aggregated which gives the estimate of demand for the product as a whole for the as a whole for the terminal year in question. Thus, end-use demand estimation of an intermediate product may involve many final goods industries using this product at home and abroad. Once the demand for final consumption goods including their export net of imports is known, the demand for the product used as intermediate good in the production of these final consumption goods with the help of input-output coefficients can be estimated. The input-output tables containing input-output coefficients for particular periods are made available in every country either by the government or by research organizations. Except in the case of intermediate products, demand forecasting through end-use method is neither...

Words: 2994 - Pages: 12

Forecasting Production Demand

...The Importance of Accurate Demand Forecasting An Analysis of VMU America Inc. Christopher Chun & William McMahan Oakland University Abstract Most strategic business decisions, such as financial planning and production management, rely heavily on forecasts that attempt to paint an accurate picture of the future periods. Ineffective forecasting can lead businesses to improper conclusions about the environment in which they operate. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effectiveness of VMU Power Systems’ forecasting methods on production demand. Once the type/s of forecasting used is identified, a closer look highlights the fact that improvements to their methods could put the company in a better position to handle their current market demand. The underlying issue is that they are not including all of their products & services in their data set, or more simply put, they are basing their decisions off of incomplete data. This is causing their forecasted results to be far below the actual demand resulting in a lack of resources to produce at the levels required. Other research has been cited throughout this paper to further support the claims that it is possible for VMU to forecast their type of intermittent demand. There are two main recommendations made at the end of this analysis that, if implemented, could improve the accuracy of their models. The first suggestion is to use the SBA forecasting method on their after-sales demand. The second...

Words: 2776 - Pages: 12

Food Containers Markets in China: Industry Growth, Economic Trends, Demand, Capacity, Analysis Report

...ResearchBeam has announced a new Report Package "Food Containers Markets in China: Industry Growth, Economic Trends, Demand, Capacity, Analysis Report" Report Overview China's demand for Food Containers has grown at a fast pace in the past decade. In the next decade, both production and demand will continue to grow. The Chinese economy maintains a high speed growth which has been stimulated by the consecutive increases of industrial output, import & export, consumer consumption and capital investment for over two decades. This new study examines China's economic trends, investment environment, industry development, supply and demand, industry capacity, industry structure, marketing channels and major industry participants. Historical data (2004, 2009 and 2014) and long-term forecasts through 2019 and 2024 are presented. Major producers in China are profiled. Browse Complete Report at: http://www.researchbeam.com/food-containers-in-china-market The primary and secondary research is done in China in order to access up-to-date government regulations, market information and industry data. Data were collected from the Chinese government publications, Chinese language newspapers and magazines, industry associations, local governments’ industry bureaus, industry publications, and our in-house databases. Interviews are conducted with Chinese industry experts, university professors, and producers in China. Economic models and quantitative methods are applied in this...

Words: 432 - Pages: 2

Working Capital Management of Mjl Bangladesh Limited

.... Sincerely, Zonayed Mahid 17-182 2 Table of Content Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….4 Overview of MJL Bangladesh Limited………………………………………………………...6 Managing Cash Flow……………………………………………………………………………7 Performance Indicator…………………………………………………………………………..8 Risk Factor to Working Capital Management……………………………………………......9 Working Capital Cycle…………………………………………………………………………10 Inventory Management………………………………………………………………………..12 Cash Forecasting………………………………………………………………………………14 Accounts Receivable Management………………………………………………………….17 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………..18 3 Executive Summary For being a strong enterprise it is necessary to go beyond analyzing supply-demand and capital structure of the business, and in that ‘Working Capital Management’ carries the most weightage. Sometimes it makes the very difference of a company becoming successful. This report is about analyzing and evaluating the working capital management of MJLBL. MJLBL is renowned petroleum Oil Company with three main operation: oil tanker unit, manufacturing unit and trading unit. As being manufacturing enterprise, the company has shown significant keenness in managing its asset and liabilities efficiently. The company was first tested about its management of cash inflow and outflow where they there cash and near cash asset for hedges and temporary investment was procured very well, though the cash transaction slacked a bit in the reason period. Along......

Words: 3601 - Pages: 15

Demand Forecasting

...3.5 Inferential Statistics: The Plot Thickens We have been talking about ways to calculate and describe characteristics about data. Descriptive statistics tell us information about the distribution of our data, how varied the data are, and the shape of the data. Now we are also interested in information related to our data parameters. In other words, we want to know if we have relationships, associations, or differences within our data and whether statistical significance exists. Inferential statistics help us make these determinations and allow us to generalize the results to a larger population. We provide background about parametric and nonparametric statistics and then show basic inferential statistics that examine associations among variables and tests of differences between groups. Parametric and Nonparametric Statistics In the world of statistics, distinctions are made in the types of analyses that can be used by the evaluator based on distribution assumptions and the levels of measurement data. For example, parametric statistics are based on the assumption of normal distribution and randomized sampling that results in interval or ratio data. The statistical tests usually determine significance of difference or relationships. These parametric statistical tests commonly include t-tests, Pearson product-moment correlations, and analyses of variance. Nonparametric statistics are known as distribution-free tests because they are not based on the...

Words: 1788 - Pages: 8

Demand Forecasting

... to balance to avoid any over stock or stock out. 1. Demand side: focuses on efficient ways in understanding the demand. Which signal closer to the source, to capture the accurate demand signals by shaping the demand through the promotion and pricing strategies in order to meet business objectives. 2. Supply side: refers to minimizing the support on the forecasting tools by increasing the responsiveness when we know the actual demand. Depending on the market or industry, companies use the different strategies on order to meet the demand (Industry Week, 2013). 3.1 Demand Forecasting Since demand is a crucial component in the supply chain network, it is a time sensitive and interconnected element. According to the Economic Discussion (2015) website, demand forecasting covers the area of predictive analytics used to forecast quantities for products and services in the future, taking into consideration controlled and uncontrolled forces. Forecasting of demand not only tries to minimize the risk of various business activities but also helps the organization to critically analyze their investment capital and taking important development decisions. 3.2 Demand Forecasting Methods Appropriate demand forecasting models are vital to ensure a company’s competitiveness in the market place is increased. According to Your Article Library (2015) website, in the supply chain management, two main methods of demand forecasting exist namely; Opinion polling methods...

Words: 5698 - Pages: 23