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Dividends in Russia

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UДивиденды-2011: последние лакомые кусочки? http://www.comon.ru/community/578/forum/topic/?i=7628 Основной рост рынка в последние годы был обеспечен принятыми мерами по стимулированию экономики, таких как запуск печатного станка для монетизации глобального долга, вливание ликвидности и т. д. В этом году инвесторы верят в минимальную вероятность долговой катастрофы в еврозоне. Основной акцент - на дивидендные истории и динамику инвестиций фондов.

Мы предлагаем 29 компаний из торгуемых на ММВБ в рублях РФ, по которым мы провели детальный анализ для расчета возможных выплат по дивидендам за 2011 год.

2011 год, возможно, останется самым удачным для многих компаний с точки зрения финансовой отчетности, особенно учитывая текущую сложную глобальную экономическую ситуацию, которая явно может ухудшиться в 2012-2013 году. Вопреки рекордным ценам на нефть и внутреннему спросу потребителей многие компании будут думать больше о сохранении средств перед растущей неизвестностью. Последние меры по повышению экспортной пошлины и общая неопределенность касательно налоговой реформы для нефтяной отрасли будут также этому способствовать. Некоторые компании металлургических и производственных секторов, как ММК и ЧТПЗ, уже ощущают на себе высокую стоимость на энергоносители, демонстрируя убытки.

Соответственно, мы рекомендуем покупать бумаги с наибольшей дивидендной доходностью до возможной даты закрытия реестра, из наиболее ликвидных - это компании нефтегазового сектора и банки. Первыми закроют свой реестр "Сбербанк" и "Газпром нефть".

В относительном сравнении "Газпром" и "Сбербанк", безусловно, являются рекордсменами по доли выплат от чистой прибыли. В абсолютном значении основным лидером по размерам выплат дивидендной доходности является "Мечел" преф. В целом "Мечел" показал худшую динамику за год, упав на 67%, что в большей степени отражает высокую дивидендную доходность. Также много опасений вызывает кредитное качество компании, что в большой степени отражено в цене. "Мечел" преф торгуется недавно, но выглядит достаточно перспективным с технической стороны.

"Башнефть" преф и "Сургутнефтегаз" преф - традиционные лидеры по дивидендной доходности, далее следуют ТНК-BP, "Татнефть" и МТС.

По нашим оценкам, российские компании выплатят акционерам по итогам прошлого года рекордную сумму - 33,2 млрд долларов, что на 22% выше, чем за прошлый год. Данный рост оправдан, учитывая рекордные прибыли, на которые вышли многие компании - в особенности из нефтегазового и банковского секторов.

Дивиденды: самые лакомые


Источник: Московский Фондовый Центр, РТС, Bloomberg

Преимущества дивидендной политики:
- повышение оценки компании;
- высокие дивидендные выплаты снижают волатильность акций.

Дивидендная политика в России в сравнении с другими странами.
- Дивидендная политика российских компаний - худшая на развивающихся рынках: выплачивается в среднем только 19% чистой прибыли и 9% EBITDA (средние дивидендные выплаты на развивающихся рынках составляют 35% чистой прибыли и 19% EBITDA).
- Средний уровень дивидендной доходности в России за прошлый год составил 2,1% против среднего показателя в 3% по Европе и 2,81% в США.
- В США максимальные выплаты по дивидендам в этом году ожидаются от компаний потребительского сектора, таких как AT&T (5,63% из расчета стоимости дивидендов на акцию/текущую цену), Verizon Comm (5,28%), Merck (4,44%). Наименьшие выплаты - от банков и промышленных компаний, такие как Bank of America (0,63%), Alcoa (1,9%). American express (1,40%) и Exxon Mobil (2,33%). Данный уровень сопоставим с уровнем инфляции в США. В России доходности выглядят значительно ниже.
- В США порядка 400 из 500 компаний S&P500 планируют выплаты по дивидендам за 2011 год. В России - только 35 компаний из 200 более или менее ликвидных.

Почему в России традиционно сложились низкие выплаты по дивидендам, причины для изменения:
- Основная причина - это отсутствие долгосрочного финансирования. Традиционно до кризиса кредитный портфель российских компаний был краткосрочным, все финансирование велось за счет собственных денежных средств.
- В последние время ситуация изменилась, так как дюрация долга значительно увеличилась, и в основном на краткосрочные обязательства использовались денежные средства. В этом и основное преимущество российских компаний - низкие кредитные обязательства. Также отметим, что финансовые денежные потоки составляют 9% EBITDA у российских компаний и всего 3% в среднем по компаниям развивающихся рынков

Нормативы по дивидендам


Источник: Московский Фондовый Центр

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