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Economic Forcast

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Macroeconomic Forecast
Since the recession ended in mid-2009, U.S. economy has been recovering sustainably from the crisis, though the pace has been uneven and slowed from 2010 to 2014. During the past five years, GDP grows up to nearly 2% each year and the stock market has heated up from its lows. However, significant economic weakness still remains evident with the weak recovery of the global economy.
As the graph shows below, real GDP grew roughly 2.5% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011, 2.3% in 2012, 2.2% in 2013, and 2.4% in 2014. Assuming that US economy will keep growing steadily, it’s reasonable that we expect a roughly growth of 1% in next two quarters after December 2015.

An inspection of unemployment rate shows that, the unemployment rate has been decreasing from 9.6% in 2010 to 6.2% in 2014, after its peak of 10.1% in October 2009. More specifically, the US gained 3.116 million jobs in the year of 2014. More jobs will be created in the next two quarters with our positive anticipation, but it’s hard to give an exact number due to a great many uncertainties in US economy.

Inflation rate measures the increase in the general price level of goods and services over a period of time. According to Phillips curve, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Therefore, moderate inflation is acceptable in many cases because it usually means less unemployment and a booming market. As is shown in the chart, the inflation rates for the US are steadily around 1.5% to 3% during 2010-2014. As the latest inflation rate is nearly zero through 2015, we forecast that the inflation rate will remain as low as 0-1% in the next two quarters.

A change in the long-term interest rate impacts the value of accumulated savings and the cost of borrowings. It also influences prices of investment assets and the sustainability of fiscal deficits. A report from OECD indicates that US

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