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Economic Growth Models

In: Business and Management

Submitted By aromani1989
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THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE*

Dani Rodrik Harvard University August 2011

*

This is a paper prepared for the 2011 Jackson Hole Symposium of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 25-27, 2011. I am grateful to Arvind Subramanian for helpful conversations and to UNIDO for making their INDSTAT4 data base available. I also thank Cynthia Balloch for research assistance and the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard for financial assistance.

I. Introduction Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart‘s timely comic novel ―Super Sad True Love Story‖ (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country‘s bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America‘s most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (―low net worth individuals‖) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency. This is sheer fantasy of course, but one that seems to resonate well with the collective mood A future in which the U.S and other advanced economies are forced to play second fiddle to the dynamic emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere is rapidly becoming cliché. This vision is based in part on the very rapid pace of economic growth that emerging and developing economies experienced in the run-up to the...

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