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Economics

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Submitted By hainimona
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MODUL 04

ESTIMASI PERMINTAAN

METODE LANGSUNG ESTIMASI DEMAND

❖ Wawancara Konsumen Konsumen adalah yang paling mengetahui tentang fungsi permintaan individu mereka untuk komoditas tertentu. Karena itu maka cara yang paling mudah mengestimasi demand mereka menanyakan kepada mereka berapa jumlah komoditi yang akan dibeli mereka pada variasi harga komoditi tersebut, tentu saja dengan memperhatikan juga penentu lain dari demand seperti harga komoditi substitusi dan komplemen.

Bentuk yang paling sederhana adalah wawancara konsumen di pasar tentang berapa banyak barang yang dibeli pada harga yang berbeda. Bentuk yang lebih canggih yaitu dengan wawancara kuesioner.

Masalah yang timbul dalam melakukan metode ini adalah : (1) memilih sampel yang representatif, (2) respons konsumen yang bias, dan (3) ketidakmampuan responden untuk menjawab dengan benar. Sampel yang representatif biasanya adalah sampel yang diambil secara acak yang dapat merepleksikan sifat keseluruhan populasi. Respons yang bias dari konsumen umpamanya ketika mereka yang diwawancarai memberikan jawaban Hipotetis terhadap pertanyaan yang juga Hipotetis.

❖ Eksperimen Pasar Barang dijual di pasar dengan cara pengendalian terhadap semua variabel kecuali harga barang yang dibuat variasi. Tidak ada iklan, konsumen hanya membeli karena kebutuhan mereka. Dari sini dapat diketahui respons konsumen terhadap barang yang dijual paa harga yang berbeda. Analisis dapat dilakukan untuk mengetahui harga yang paling sesuai bagi konsumen dan juga prosedur.

❖ Wawancara Pedagang Pedagang atau produsen dapat diwawancarai untuk mengetahui potensi permintaan pasar. Metode ini merupakan salah satu teknik dari Rapid Marketing Appraisal yang dikembangkan FAO untuk mengetahui secara cepat permintaan pasar terhadap komoditas pertanian. Namun teknik ini bisa dikembangkan untuk seluruh komoditi yang memang memiliki pasar yang jelas.

Katakanlah anda ingin mengetahui potensi pasar Pisang di kota Bogor, maka dari pada mewawancarai konsumen pisang yang jumlahnya bisa ribuan orang dalam sehari, yang bisa anda lakukan sebagai alternatif adalah mewawancarai pedagang pisang. Langkah-langkah yang harus anda lakukan adalah sebagai berikut : 1. Identifikasi berapa jumlah Pasar (P) yang ada di Bogor yang menjual pisang. Dari jumlah itu Katakanlah anda memilih beberapa sampel (p) sebagai lokasi wawancara. 2. Identifikasi berapa rata-rata jumlah pedagang pisang (B) yang ada di pasar, dari mereka tentukan jumlah pedagang pisang (b) yang bisa anda wawancarai. 3. Tanyakan pedagang pisang sampel anda berapa rata-rata jumlah pisang yang dijual setiap hari (h) oleh setiap pedagang, dan berapa hari dalam sebulan (H) kios yang bersangkutan dibuka juga anda harus menanyakan berapa harga pisang setiap hari. 4. Katakanlah anda ingin mengetahui potensi pasar pisang per bulan (Q) di Bogor, maka anda dapat mengestimasinya sebagai berikut : Q = (H* h)* (B)*(P).

I. SPESIFIKASI FUNGSI DEMAN EMPERIS Fungsi permintaan Generik = Qx = ( (Px, Pr, T, Epx, I, N). Dimana Qx = adalah kuantitas barang x yang diminta, Px adalah harga barang x, Pr adalah harga barang lain, baik barang substitusi maupun komplemen, T adalah selera dan rasa, Epx adalah ekspektasi barang x, I adalah pendapatan konsumen, dan N adalah jumlah konsumen. Dalam menentukan variabel pendapatan atau variabel lainnya yang dasar perhitungannya secara regional, pastikan bahwa variabel tersebut dihitung atau ditentukan pada region yang menjadi tujuan studi. Sebagai contoh bila anda menghitung permintaan semen di Sumatera Barat, Hendaklah pendapatan konsumen, atau variabel lainnya seperti penduduk, inflasi juga pada untuk wilayah Sumatera Barat, bukan untuk wilayah lain.

Fungsi demand memiliki berbagai bentuk, sesuai dengan komoditi dan sifat dari permintaan itu sendiri. Namun dua bentuk fungsi yang umum digunakan karena relatif mudah dalam mengestimasinya adalah bentuk Linier dan Log-linear (elastisitas konstan).

Bentuk Liner = Qx = a + bPx + cI + dPr + eN, pada persamaan ini a, b, c, d, dan e adalah parameter persamaan. Parameter b mengukur perubahan jumlah yang diminta akibat perubahan satu unit harga atau sama dengan (Qx / (Px.

Dari data emperis, anda dapat menghitung rata-rata Qx (jumlah yang diminta) dan Px (harga) rata-rata. Kemudian juga elastisitas harga yang adalah sebagai berikut :

E – Harga = [pic]

Dengan cara yang sama, elastisitas pendapatan, elastisitas harga barang lain, dan elastisitas jumlah penduduk dapat juga dihitung.

Bentuk Log-Linier adalah sebagai berikut : Qx = aPxb Ic Prd Ne. Bila dilogaritmakan maka persamaan ini menjadi : Log Qx = Log (a) + b Log (Px) + c Log (I) + d Log (Pr) + e Log (N) Bentuk fungsi demand yang log-linear dapat dengan mudah diestimasi dengan menggunakan teknik pendugaan persamaan linier terhadap data yang terlebih dahulu sudah dilogaritmakan. Tidak seperti pada fungsi demand linear dimana elastisitas harus dihitung, pada fungsi demand dengan persamaan Log-liniear ini, elastisitas dapat secara langsung pada koefisiennya. Jadi b adalah elastisitas harga, c adalah elastisitas pendapatan, dan seterusnya sama untuk variabel lain. Contoh berikut adalah cara untuk verifikasi apakah memang koefisien fungsi merupakan elastisitas. Qx = aPxb Ic Prd Ne [pic] = bQx (Px)-1 E-harga = [bQx (Px)-1] * (Px) * (Qx)-1. dengan mengalikan komponen-komponen persamaan ini maka hasilnya adalah b. dengan demikian b adalah elastisitas, yang dalam hal ini merupakan elastisitas harga.

II. MASALAH SIMULTANITAS DALAM ESTIMASI DEMAND Sejauh ini estimasi demand dilakukan secara parsial yaitu bahwa kuantitas atau jumlah yang diminta diperlakukan sebagai variabel dependent (tidak bebas) atau disebut juga variabel endogenous (yang ditentukan di dalam model atau oleh persamaan). Sedangkan harga diperlakukan sebagai variabel independent (bebas), ditentukan diluar model (exogenous) dan juga disebut dengan variabel explanatory atau variabel yang menerangkan. Dengan cara ini maka harga dipandang sebagai sesuatu yang sudah ada dan langsung dipakai sebagai variabel yang menerangkan atau menentukan jumlah yang diminta (Quantity Demandend). Dalam kenyataannya ternyata perilaku harga dan jumlah yang diminta tidak sesederhana itu. Ada dua hal utama yang patut dipertimbangkan : 1) Dalam dunia nyata harga dan jumlah yang diminta (kuantitas) saling mempengaruhi. Harga seharusnya merupakan variabel yang juga ditentukan dalam model (endogenous). 2) Yang menentukan harga bukan saja demand tetapi juga supply (pemasangan). Keseimbangan atau ekuilibrium antara supply dan demand inilah yang menentukan jumlah yang diminta, yang sekaligus juga merupakan jumlah yang ditawarkan (Quantity Supplied) dan harga. Dengan demikian maka baik kuantitas maupun harga harus merupakan variabel yang ditentukan dalam model secara bersama-sama atau simultanitas. Jadi persoalan simultanitas muncul pada saat estimasi permintaan pasar akan komoditas tertentu dimana variasi harga dan kuantitas barang ditentukan secara bersama oleh perubahan baik pada demand maupun supply.

Demand = Qx = a - bPx Supply = Qx = g + hPx Keseimbangan : Demand = Supply

III. IDENTIFIAKSI FUNGSI DEMAN Fungsi demand hanya dapat teridentifikasi secara simultan bilamana terjadi perubahan (shifting). Pada supply yang disebabkan oleh perubahan salah satu faktor eksplanatorinya tanpa secara simultan mengakibatkan terjadinya perubahan demand. Dengan kata lain sepanjang persamaan supply mengandung sekurang-kurangnya satu variabel yang dapat merubah supply namun variabel tersebut tidak muncul pada persamaan demand maka persamaan demand dapat diidentifikasi dan karena diestimasi. Bila demand tidak dapat diidentifikasi maka estimasi demand akan menghasilkan angka-angka yang salah yang tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan.

IV. TEKNIK TWO-STAGES LEAST SQUARES (2 SLS) Fungsi simultan supply dan demand harus diestimasi dengan menggunakan 2 SLS. Hal ini untuk menghindari bias dari koefisien yang diestimasi. Secara teknis, ini berarti menghindari adanya korelasi antara harga dengan alat baku (terms error) yang dihasilkan oleh fungsi yang diestimasi. Proses estimasi 2 SLS adalah sebagai berikut : Katakanlah : demand tembaga (Qt) adalah ditentukan oleh harga Tembaga (Pt), pendapatan (I), dan harga aluminium (Pa). sementara supply tembaga (Qt) ditentukan oleh harga tembaga (Pt), teknologi (T), dan rasio konsumsi terhadap tembaga pada tahun sebelumnya, dinotasikan dengan X. dengan demikian maka bila konsumsi turun relatif terhadap produksi maka X akan turun juga dan produksi tahun sesudahnya diharapkan juga menurun. Berdasarkan informasi ini maka dapat dikemukakan : Demand = Qt = ( (Pt, I, Pa) Supply = Qt = ( (Pt, T, X) Dengan informasi ini, pertanyaannya apakah fungsi demand teridentifikasi ? karena fungsi supply mengandung dua eksplanatori variabel yang tidak terdapat pada fungsi demand (T dan X) maka fungsi demand teridentifikasi dan karena itu dapat teridentifikasi dan karena itu dapat diestimasi. Prosedur estimasi dengan 2 SLS adalah : Langkah pertama harta tembaga (Pt) sebagai variabel endogenous diregresikan dengan semua explanatory variabel sebagai berikut : Pt = ( (I, Pa, T, dan X) Hasil estimasi fungsi ini digunakan untuk menurunkan nilai prediksi harga (Pt). selanjutnya langkah kedua adalah kuantitas tembaga (Qt) diregresikan dengan prediksi harga Pt, pendapatan (I), dan harga aluminium (Pa) Qt = ( (Pt, I, dan Pa) Hasilnya yaitu nilai koefisien fungsi yang merupakan koefisien fungsi demand.

V. FUNGSI DEMAND PERUSAHAAN YANG PRICE-TAKING DAN PRICE-SETTING : Demand perusahaan berbeda dengan demand industri untuk demand perusahaan, masalah identifikasi mungkin tidak akan muncul. Perusahaan dapat menentukan harga (price-setter) tetapi juga bisa hanya mengambil harga yang berlaku di pasar (price-taker). Untuk perusahaan price-taker fungsi demandnya adalah berbentuk horizontal karena berapapun kuantiti yang dijualnya, harga tetap konstan. Untuk perusahaan yang menentukan harga (price-setter) harga tidak tergantung pada kuantitas barang yang diminta tetapi bisa saja ditentukan oleh perusahaan menurut keinginannya. Karena itu harga bukan endogenous variabel. Ini berarti 2 SLS tidak perlu dilakukan dan langsung hanya menggunakan estimasi demand secara langsung dengan harga sebagai salah satu eksplanatory variabel.

VI. ANALISIS REGRESI Metode statistik yang digunakan untuk mengestimasi berbagai hubungan ekonomi manajerial.

Mengestimasi Parameter Regresi

Y = a + bX Metode kuadrat terkecil (Ols) diterapkan untuk memilih nilai a dan b. Dalam pers diatas setiap titik dapat dispesifikasi dengan hubungan : Yt = â + [pic] xt + et ( Yt = [pic] + ct

Dimana c adalah nilai residual yang mencakup pengaruh semua faktor penentu penjualan lainnya yang tidak dimasukkan dalam persamaan regresi. Et = Yt – Ŷt = Yt – â - [pic]xt Jadi, ekspresi untuk perjualan bagian-bagian kesalahan yang dikuadratkan adalah : (et2 = (Yt - Ŷt)2 = ( (Yt – â - [pic]xt)2 [pic] = [pic] â = [pic]- [pic][pic]

VII. UKURAN KEKUATAN EKSPLANATORI KESELURUHAN Koefisien determinasi (R2) menunjukkan seberapa baik keseluruhan model regresi dalam menerangkan perubahan dalam nilai variabel dependent. Yaitu variabel total dalam variabel dependent yang diterangkan oleh keseluruhan variabel independent yang dicakup dalam sebuah model. Variasi total dalam Y = ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 ( TSS Variasi yang diterangkan = ( (Ŷ - [pic])2 ( ESS Variasi yang tidak diterangkan = ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 = (ut2 ( RSS ( (Yt – [pic] = ( (Ŷt - [pic] + ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 ( TSS = ESS + RSS R2 = [pic] Koefisien determinasi yang dikoreksi [pic]2 [pic]2 = R2 - [pic] Statistik F adalah untuk memberikan bukti apakah proporsi yang secara statistik signifikan dari variasi total dalam variabel dependent telah diterangkan.

F = [pic] Statistik F dapat dihitung dalam bentuk koefisien determinasi sebagai : F = [pic]

KESALAHAN STANDAR DARI ESTIMASI

Untuk menentukan kisaran dimana kita dapat memprediksi variabel dependent dengan tingkat keyakinan statistik yang telah ditetapkan.

UKURAN KEKUATAN EKSPLANATORI VARIABEL INDIVIDUAL

Statistik t dipergunakan untuk mengukur keyakinan yang dapat ditempatkan pada parameter regresi yang diestimasi untuk setiap variabel dependent. t = [pic] Se ([pic]

Uji t dua sisi (Pengujian Selang Keyakinan) Pr [[pic]- t(/2 Se ([pic]) < b < [pic] + t(/2 Se ([pic])] = 1 - (

1. Dengan data pada tabel berikut :
|No. |Quantitas (Qx) |Harga (Px) |Iklan (A) |Pendapatan Konsumen (I) |
| |42100 |11,77 |46100 |38000 |
| |55500 |9,96 |47200 |39100 |
| |71100 |12,36 |60900 |40100 |
| |63200 |12,49 |55600 |44200 |
| |77200 |10,68 |64400 |41800 |
| |70900 |12,07 |60700 |44800 |
| |55600 |11,97 |52100 |39900 |
| |70700 |11,23 |57900 |43600 |
| |71400 |11,26 |55600 |41700 |
| |79400 |9,79 |60100 |41200 |
| |60600 |12,29 |50700 |44000 |
| |50800 |12,70 |46500 |43300 |
| |61800 |12,33 |58900 |41000 |
| |40500 |10,88 |42860 |38300 |
| |85200 |10,14 |64800 |42100 |

- Lakukan analisis regresi sederhana, masing-masing a. Qx = ( (Px, A, 1) b. Tentukan koefisiennya, standar deviasinya dan t hitungnya. c. Hitung elastisitas perubahan Qx akibat perubahan Px, A dan I. d. Mana dari ketiga variabel Px, A, dan I yang paling mempengaruhi Qx ?
2. Dalam melakukan wewenang konsumen, ada tiga masalah yang dihadapi, berikan contoh-contoh masalah tersebut.
3. Untuk fungsi demand dan supply berikut ini, tentukan apakah fungsi demand teridentifikasi dan terangkan kenapa ya atau tidak. a. D : Q = a + bP S : Q = e + (P b. D : Q = a + bP + cM S : Q = c + (P c. D : Q = a + bP S : Q = e + (P + gT d. D : Q = a + bP = cM S : Q = c + (P + gT + hK

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...classified and analyzed. The first studies on the economic impact of port activity emerged in the United States in the second half of the 1960s. The ports of New York and New Jersey were the first to be taken into consideration. In the 1970s, the first methodological discussions took place, based on the development of the input–output model and its application to the measurement of the impact of ports. The main stances opposing this kind of study were advocated by Robert C. Waters, while those in favour had Semoon Chang as their main champion, and most of Waters’ criticisms were dealt with. 1. PORT ECONOMIC IMPACTS Ports contribute much to their economies, and port economic impact analysis is the major tool for documenting those contributions. The primary objective of port impact studies is to inform the public of the importance of port services, and additional benefits that may exist vary with particular studies. And also, the decision of local governmental agencies to construct port facilities is often preceded by a port economic impact study. The majority of existing port impact studies begin with definitions of port impacts, as an improper notion of port impact might well lead to an entirely wrong estimation of the total economic impact of a port. One of the major challenges in port impact studies is to identify the port-related industries and find out the degree of port dependency of these industries. Generally, economic impacts of port on the local economy can be divided...

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...stirred up a massive cause for debate, and for the correct reason. The decision the English citizen is going to comprehend is crucial for the welfare for the English economy, and is known to be the ‘’most important decision you’ll make in a generation’’ As quoted by George Osbourne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, in an article about foreign relations with Brussels. It is a very important decision to the English taxpayer, but is equally important for the British economy, but I think, is arguably most important for the small or large, private or public, English Business. The English economy is growing by 1.5% per annum, this is not enough. Compared to foreign relations such as China, with a G.D.P growth rate or economic growth rate of nearly 9% a year, China has a faster economic growth rate by 6x. Now what do these numerical figures mean in contrast to leaving the EU? Well, whether or not to leave the EU has a massive effect on our economy, influenced by trade. But how does this correlate to affecting British businesses? Well a faster, well protected economy will allow businesses to run faster, trade faster, produce faster, and become efficient, which...

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Economic

...Economic Decisions Individuals and societies alike face many decisions. Individuals tend to make economic decisions when faced with trade-offs, and because of that, individuals are required to compare costs and benefits of their alternative actions referred to as the opportunity cost. Rational individuals tend to think of marginal change during the process of decision-making, and therefore, may respond differently to incentives whilst making economic decisions. This paper discusses the four principles of economics, a decision associated with marginal change, the incentive(s) that could lead to making different decision, and finally, how the principles of economics affect decision-making, interaction and the workings of the economy as whole. The Principles of Economics A trade-off is often referred to as the “technique of reducing or forgoing one or more desirable outcomes in exchange for increasing or obtaining other desirable outcomes to maximize the total return or effectiveness under given circumstances.” (BusinessDictionary.com, 2009) In brief, individuals choose something over something else, or give up something in order to get something else. Whatever “it” is that individuals sacrifice in order to get something, is generally “its” cost, and cost is often linked and associated with money, an opportunity cost however, could be the cost of anything i.e. time or health sacrificed in order to get something. Marginal changes are incremental adjustments individuals make...

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...single monopoly and share production and profit. However, if this price-fixing game is repeated indefinitely, it would come to a moment that one firm cheats on their collusive agreement. If the cheater cuts its price and the complier remains the agreed price. As shown in the figure, for the complier, ATC now exceeds price and for the cheater, the price exceeds ATC. The industry output is larger than the monopoly output and the industry price is lower than the monopoly price. The total economic profit made by the industry is also smaller than the monopoly’s economic profit. Therefore the complier incurs an economic loss while the cheater gains economic profit. If since both firms have an incentive to cheat as long as price exceeds marginal cost. In this price-fixing game, it will occur a situation that both firms cheat. If both firms produce more cigarettes than the number agreed, the industry output will be increased, the price of cigarettes will fall and both firms makes zero economic profit, as shown in the figure. -In monopolistic competition a company in the short run, makes its output and price decision just like a monopoly company does. The following figure illustrates the monopolistic competition in the short run. As you can see, when the marginal revenue equals its marginal cost (MR = MC), the firm charges the highest price (P) that buyers are willing to pay for this quantity, which is highly higher than the average total cost (ATC). Therefore the firm makes...

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...both Macro and Micro Economic principles and is aligned with the California State Standards for Social Science in Economics. It is designed to provide a basic understanding of the core concepts, ideas, and theories relevant to the study of Economics as a social science in today’s world. Although many of the topics we cover will be new to many students, it is my goal to relate them to both the life of a teenager about to embark on his or her own economic odyssey and the larger issues filling up space on the pages of our newspapers and the screens of our computers. Whether you like it (or even know it) or not, we are all subject to the economic system we live in and its ever-changing conditions. We are all economic actors! Course Topics: 1. What is Economics? What are the basic ideas, questions, and vocabulary underlying the study of economics as a social science? 2. Economic Systems How do society’s decide what to make, how to make it, and who gets what is made? 3. Supply and Demand How are prices, the language consumers and producers use to communicate, determined in a free market system? 4. Labor Unions What do they do, what are their pros and cons, what is their history, and their current status? 5. Financial Markets What are the fundamentals of our financial system and how can you begin to learn to take advantage of it for your own benefit? 6. Macroeconomics How are large-scale economic indicators, such as...

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...Title: Economics Name: Professor’s name: Course title: Date: Economics Suggest how an economist would approach the problem of alcohol abuse. Provide two (2) possible solutions to this problem. Include the four (4) elements of the economic way of thinking in your analysis. It is a genuine case of negative externalities both in production and consumption. Alcohol production also causes pollution of the environment especially due to the large CO2 emissions produced by factories and some of the byproducts. Two possible solutions to these problems proposed by economists are: • Coase theorem. Negotiating for compensation with no any government intervention on condition that the cost of negotiation is not high and the property rights are secured. • Pigouvian regulations or taxes: Drunk driving is incorporated. An economist would raise cost through reduced availability and added taxes Analyze how prescription drugs affect the demand and supply of other products and services in this country. According to Garrod and Willis (2007), in economics, the law of supply and demand is regard as one of the fundamental principles running an economy. It is illustrated as the situation where as supply raises the price will likely drop or vice versa. As demand raises the price will likely increase or vice versa. Essentially this is a standard that nearly all people intuitively understand concerning the relationship of services and goods against the demand for...

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