Free Essay

Energy Sector

In: Business and Management

Submitted By af2014
Words 639
Pages 3
Energy & Geostrategy

1. Europe's dependence on Russian gas

- 30% of Europe's gas comes from Russia and some nations are 70-100% dependent - dependence gives Putin political leverage - why is this an issue? - Lets look back to 2006 - Gazprom (SOE of RUS) raised NG prices from 50 - 230/1000 cubic meters unilaterally for the Ukraine (to exercise their influence) -> Ukraine denied the price hike and the pipes were turned off. As Ukraine is comprised of many Soviet-era pipelines and these pipelines supplied 80% of the 25% of gas that Europe depends on RUS for Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Poland all reported gas pressure in their pipelines down 30%.

- Yes, Europe has made progress since then to decrease dependence but is still relies on Russian gas via Ukrainian pipelines for 15% of its gas - with decreasing production of Norwegian and Britain gas (increasing offshore drilling prices) - this number only looks to increase

- Europe is on a steady, but fragile recovery after the credit crisis. One thing is for certain - to continue this growth energy is needed - next point

2. Americas role in coming decades

- between the period of 2008 - 2013 US has increased crude oil production by 50%. They have surpassed Russia's production and are set to pass Saudi Arabia as yearly as next year. The US is set to not only become an energy exporter but a energy superpower.

- what implications does this have? - as US production continues to increases, this will put downward pressure on energy prices thus decreasing the geopolitical leverage that certain nations, such as Russia hold over others, such as Europe. - Vlad the Bad needs money to finance his imperialistic expansion - oil revenue is what is funding this - a petro dollar on US is one less petro dollar for RUS

- who stands to benefit from

- what are we going to do about the 25 LNG companies awaiting approval? This is a political decision - they are only receiving so much environmental and safety scrutiny because of the green-dollars flowing to Obama - something needs to be done which it will - it defies economic logic too. Because the US was so reliant on energy imports in past decades they already have established infrastructure that can be used for exporting

- just follow the money - Polish, Hungarian, Czech, and Slovakian ambassadors have reached out the US in requests for LNG supply - flows can be reversed into Ukraine - yes it may cost a little more to import from the states but this extra cost is offset by the risk mitigation of increased collusion from RUS SOE and decreasing political leverage -

3. How can Europe mitigate against this potential crippling dependence?

- Need greater clarity - need for trans-atlantic super power (EU/NA) - protected by NATO - A vast realization needs to be made - there are undemocratic states alive and thriving and are increasingly unpredictable - haven't seen this level on tension between the West and East since the cold war - strategic moves need to be made - greater alliances need to be made between like minded societies. - Bejing remained silent in this whole Crimea incident - they fear democracy more than sovereignty - not saying they are aligning with RUS but not picking sides

- despite growing globalization - protecting national interests steams from economic independence. This is what the NA/EU needs to work towards. At this point I am not suggesting a Trans-atlantic economic union - but greater trade integration needs to be made between NA/EU - this is for certain. So if this happens what sectors seek to benefit? Energy sector specifically LNG companies.

- establish energy infrastructure to support imports of LNG (ill touch on where that will come from in a minute). Lithuania (currently 100% dependent) is building port to be completed by end of 2015. Spain has port with connection to pipeline network - Rotterdam as mentioned before (whats your name?).

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