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Equity Research Report

In: Business and Management

Submitted By
Words 18586
Pages 75
Friday 29 June 2007

Change of recommendation

Reliance Industries Earnings to provide a reality check
We downgrade RIL to Sell with a target price of Rs1,300. We believe consensus valuation of its E&P assets is too aggressive. The stock also looks expensive on earnings multiples, given our cautious view on the commodity cycles and belief in rupee appreciation.
Key forecasts
FY05A Revenue (Rsm) EBITDA (Rsm) Reported net profit (Rsm) Normalised net profit (Rsm)¹ Normalised EPS (Rs) Dividend per share (Rs) Dividend yield (%) Normalised PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Price/book value (x) ROIC (%)
1. Post-goodwill amortisation and pre-exceptional items Accounting Standard: Local GAAP Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

Sell n/a Neutral

(from Hold)

Absolute performance Short term (0-60 days) Market relative to region Integrated Oil & Gas


FY06A 812113 144050 96046.9 96046.9 78.5 10.0 0.59 21.6 17.6 6.60 13.0 FY07F 1053630 182100 115113 115113 94.1 11.0& 0.65 18.1 14.6 4.29 17.5 FY08F 982038 FY09F 927646 660513 126574 75716.4 75716.4 61.8 7.50 0.44 27.5 19.6 5.18 9.74
Target price

181809& 210725% 122300% 137078% 122300 100.0% 12.0 0.71 17.0& 15.0 3.48 10.6 137078 106.8% 14.0% 0.82 15.9& 12.3 2.54 10.3


(from Rs1250.00)

Market capitalisation

Rs2.37t (US$57.99bn)
Avg (12mth) daily turnover

Rs1376.07m (US$31.05m)
Reuters Bloomberg



year to Mar, fully diluted

Limited earnings growth We estimate RIL's EPS at Rs100-113 over FY08-10, growth of just 6% pa. Our FY10 estimates are 26% below consensus on account of our cautious view on refining/petchem margins and assumption of an appreciating rupee (Rs/US$ will average 41 in FY08, 39.35 in FY09 and 38.40 thereafter). Our FY09-10 estimates now assume oil from KG-D6 and higher prices for KG-D6 gas. Impressive execution capability We...

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