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# Essay 1

Submitted By linovctr
Words 1556
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Assignment 1

Question 3 a) Use a three-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4-12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the Mean Error and the Mean Absolute Error. Month | Demand | MV3 | MV3(arredondado) | ME | MAE | 1 | 20 | - | - | - | - | 2 | 18 | - | - | - | - | 3 | 21 | - | - | - | - | 4 | 25 | 19.67 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 21.33 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 23.33 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25.33 | 26 | -3 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 24.33 | 25 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 26.33 | 27 | -3 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 25.00 | 25 | -5 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 24.33 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 24.00 | 24 | -2 | 2 | 13 (NEW) | | 23.67 | 24 | 0.93 | 3.96 | b) Use exponential smoothing with an α of 0.6 to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4-12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the Mean Error and the Mean Absolute Error Month | Demand | ESF | ESF(arredondado) | ME | MAE | 1 | 20 | - | - | - | - | 2 | 18 | - | - | - | - | 3 | 21 | 21.00 | 21 | - | - | 4 | 25 | 21.00 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 23.40 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 23.76 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 25.70 | 26 | -4 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 23.48 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 27.39 | 28 | -4 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 24.76 | 25 | -5 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 21.90 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 26.16 | 27 | -4 | 4 | 13 (NEW) | | 23.66 | 24 | 0.49 | 4.27 |

c) Compare the Mean Error and the Mean Absolute Error you obtained in (a) and (b) above. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend and why? As was discussed in question 2, the forecast has to be close enough to the reality to be a good and help the demand management in allocation of resources, production, etc. Both forecasting have similar results, but not equal. To be a good forecast, the forecast has to have ME and MAE as close to zero as possible. So, the ME tell us to choose the exponential smoothing and the MAE tell us to choose the Moving Average. The Mean Error show that the exponential smoothing compensate the higher forecasts with lower forecasts(and vice-versa) more than the three-months moving average does. However, the MAE tell us that the three-months moving average has lower errors magnitude than the exponential smoothing. Analyzing the month by month error, we can see that the exponential smoothing have the highest error (in month 11, the forecast exceed the demand in 7 units) and, as was told by the MAE, it has a higher error magnitude. So, in order to choose the more accurate forecast method, I would recommend the three-months moving average.

Reference Vollman, T. E., Berry, W., L., Whybark, D. C., Jacobs, F. R., “Manufacturing Planning & Control for Supply Chain Management”, McGraw-Hill, 2005.

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