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Euro off four-month high by Alice Ross

The euro remained close to a four-month high but pared some gains as risk-related currencies pulled back ahead of uncertainty over monetary easing plans in the US in the week ahead.
The euro traded below $1.28 for much of the day, having earlier hit a session high of $1.2812 following a global risk rally sparked by the European Central Bank’s plans to buy government bonds to help address the eurozone debt crisis outlined last Thursday.
Currency analysts said that expectations the US Federal Reserve could announce monetary easing this week, following weak jobs figures highlighting the fragile US economy on Friday, would be the main driver of the forex market in the coming sessions.
A decision by the German constitutional court on whether to ratify the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone’s new bailout fund, on Wednesday was also seen as crucial for risk appetite.
“If the ESM laws are upheld, the event will pass with only modest additional benefit for the euro and risk sentiment,” said analysts at Credit Suisse. “However, a ruling against the legislation would likely represent a major risk aversion and systemic stress event.”
The euro pared recent gains against the Swiss franc, after hitting its strongest level all year on Friday as pressure on the Swiss haven lessened following the ECB’s action, which was widely seen as boosting confidence in the eurozone.
On Monday the euro was lower against the franc, slipping 0.2 per cent to SFr1.2078, as analysts warned that buying of the franc could return. “Slowing eurozone activity, ECB rate cuts and slowing portfolio inflows into the eurozone suggest it’s too early to expect a sustained euro rally. While the euro-franc could make it as high as 1.22 ahead of Thursday’s SNB meeting, we expect it to be back at 1.20 heading into the fourth quarter,” said Chris Turner, currency analyst at ING.

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