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European Monetary Policy

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1)Les deux piliers de la politique monétaire européenne

Quels sont les deux piliers de la politique monétaire de la BCE ?

Le premier pilier de la politique monétaire de la BCE est une analyse fine de la sphère monétaire, et le second est une analyse des autres données économiques et financières. Ces deux piliers sont réellement plus des moyens permettant d’atteindre le seul « but ultime » de la BCE, qui est le maintien de la stabilité des prix dans la zone euro. * Le premier pilier est primordial puisqu’en vue de cette stabilité des prix, il faut maitriser l’inflation, dont la première origine est monétaire.
Avantage : facilité de recueil de ces données monétaires. * Le deuxième pilier permet de rassembler des informations rentrant aussi en jeu dans la stabilité des prix, autre que la branche monétaire : perturbations économiques à un moment donné (problème d’offre, de demande, origine externe, interne, caractère permanent, transitoire ??). Projection macroéconomiques ++.

Sur quelles théories économiques repose la politique monétaire de la BCE ?

* Le premier pilier est basé sur la théorie économique d’Irving Fischer qui met en relation la masse monétaire en circulation et le niveau général des prix selon l’équation suivante : M*V = P*Y
Avec M la masse monétaire
V la vitesse de circulation de la monnaie
P le niveau des prix
Y la production sur une période (PIB)

* Le deuxième pilier est basé sur la courbe de Phillips. Celle-ci décrit une relation décroissante entre le taux de chômage est l’inflation.
En effet (selon Keynes) : sans chômage, les salariés peuvent se permettre de demander une augmentation de leurs salaires (ce qu’ils ne peuvent pas faire en période de chômage sous risque de se faire remplacer par n’importe que chômeur attendant un travail). Si les entreprises dépensent plus d’argent dans les salaires, ils vont compenser cette « perte » en augmentant leurs prix, ce qui va créer l’inflation. Il y a donc une relation inverse entre chômage et inflation.
Rappel : On n’aime pas l’inflation si elle est trop forte (prix trop élevés=blocage de la consommation), on n’aime pas non plus la déflation (les prix baissent donc les gens ont tendance à attendre « demain » avant de consommer puisqu’ils s’imaginent que les prix vont continuer à baisser avec le temps). On veut donc une inflation, mais faible, pour que la consommation soit idéale. Inflation souhaitée = 2%.

Extraits montrant la conformité de la politique monétaire actuelle aux deux piliers.

Pilier 1 :« With the measures that have been put in place, monetary policy has responded to the outlook for low inflation(…)in line with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2%. As they work their way through to the economy, our monetary policy measures will together contribute to a return of inflation rates to levels closer to our aim.
Pilier 2: “Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis(…)The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside. In particular, the weakening in the euro area’s growth momentum, alongside heightened geopolitical risks, could dampen confidence and, in particular, private investment. In addition, insufficient progress in structural reforms in euro area countries constitutes a key downward risk to the economic outlook.”
Pilier 1 et 2 : “To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirms the recent decisions taken by the Governing Council to provide further monetary policy accommodation and to support lending to the real economy. Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance contributes to supporting economic activity. However, in order to strengthen investment activity, boost job creation and raise productivity growth, other policy areas need to contribute decisively.

Bulletin mensuel de novembre 2014 de la BCE

Taux d’intérêt a) Il s’agit des taux d’intérêts appliqués aux prêts et dépôts par les IFM (Institution financière monétaire). Ces taux d’intérêts touchent à la fois les ménages et les sociétés non financières (SNF).
Taux directeurs de la BCE (10 septembre):
Facilité de dépôt -0.20 (variation = -0.10)
Facilité de prêt 0.30 (variation = -0.10)
De façon générale, le taux d’intérêt payé par le client (consommateur ou entreprise) est égal à un taux de référence + SPREAD.
2 taux de références : * EURIBOR 3 mois * Obligations d’Etat 10 ans

Le spread (marge) dépend de 2 choses : * Risque client * Coûts de structure des banques * L’intensité concurrentielle sur le marché du crédit

Tableau des taux d’intérêt accordés dans les tableaux à la fin du bulletin.
Globalement, les taux sont nettement plus élevés que l’EURIBOR ou les obligations d’Etat à cause notamment de la risquophobie des banques depuis la crise de 2008 (elles surestiment le risque lié au client). Les taux appliqués aux entreprises sont moins importants que les taux appliqués au ménage.
e. Avec quels instruments la BCE peut-elle réguler les taux ?

La BCE a la possibilité d’agir sur les taux directeurs et sur la masse monétaire en menant des politiques d’open-market qui lui permettent de réguler la masse monétaire.
Les opérations d'open-market qui consistent à agir sur la masse monétaire en circulation ainsi que sur les actifs financiers

1.6 Quelles sont les orientations de la politique monétaire de la BCE, quelles sont les mesures spéciales prises récemment par la BCE ? (voir annexe 4)

Ce sont des politiques monétaires non conventionnelles : * Repo : taux repo qu’on prête à 3 ans. Le taux repo est habituellement hebdomadaire. C’est une façon d’injecter des liquidités dans l’économie, d’indiquer qu’elle ne va pas remonter ses taux tant qu’il n’y a pas de reprise économique, et donner de la crédibilité dans les actifs donnés par la banque. * LTROs (Long Term re-Financing Operations) : prêt à long terme accordé aux banques commerciales par la banque centrale. Intérêt pour les agents : avoir de la liquidité * « Forward guidance » pour influencer les anticipations par des mesures de politiques monétaires et les rachats de titres sont un élément essentiel. Le risque de taux d’intérêt est éliminé également, parce que ce qui peut faire augmenter les taux d’intérêt sur les marchés financiers c’est le risque. Comme de toute façon, la BCE rachètera une partie de ces titres, c’est une façon d’éliminer ou de réduire le risque. Les titres deviennent alors de moins en moins risqués. En même temps, on augmente la masse monétaire en circulation.
Annexe 4, BNP page 12

Les canaux traditionnels ne marchent plus car on se trouve dans une trappe à liquidité (= les taux d’intérêt sont trop bas et les politiques monétaires traditionnelles ne sont pas efficaces).

ABS = titres adossés à des actifs

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