VALUE LINE PUBLISHING, OCTOBER 2002 | | | | | | | | | | Financial forecast for Lowe's | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fiscal year | ASSUMPTIONS | | 2001 | 2002F | 2003F | 2004F | 2005F | 2006F | | | | | | | | | | | Growth in new stores | | 14.5% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 13.0% | | Sales growth for existing stores | | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | | Total sales growth | | 17.3% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 17.7% | 17.9% | 19.4% | | | | | | | | | | | Gross margin | | 28.8% | 29.2% | 29.5% | 29.5% | 29.5% | 29.5% | | Cash operating expenses/Sales | | 18.3% | 17.7% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 17.7% | 17.5% | | Depreciation/Sales | | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | | Income tax rate | | 37.0% | 37.4% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | | | | | | | | | | | Cash & ST Inv/Sales | | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | | Receivable turnover | | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | 133.5 | | Inventory turnover | | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | | P&E Turnover | | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | | Payables/COGS | | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | | Other curr liab/Sales | | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | | | | | | | | | | FORECAST | | | | | | | | | Number of stores | | 744 | 870 | 1,008 | 1,147 | 1,296 | 1,464 | | Net sales | | 22,111 | 26,502 | 31,400 | 36,958 | 43,573 | 52,026 | | Cost of sales | | 15,743 | 18,764 | 22,137 | 26,055 | 30,719 | 36,679 | | Gross profit | | 6,368 | 7,739 | 9,263 | 10,903 | 12,854 | 15,348 | | Cash operating expenses | | 4,036 | 4,691 | 5,652 | 6,652 | 7,712