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Financial Management Case

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Submitted By bibenw
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Question 5 (5 points):

An investor group is considering creating a company to exploit a business opportunity. The investment necessary today is 200 million Euros. If the venture is successful, the business will produce a payoff of 300 million next year; if the venture fails, the payoff will be only 50 million. Everyone is risk neutral and the discount rate in this economy is zero. The prospective investors have to hire a manager to run the business. The probability of success of the venture depends on whether the manager spends effort to make the business work:
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If the manager provides effort, the probability of success is 0.8 and the probability of failure is 0.2
If the manager does not provide effort, the probability of success is 0.5 and the probability of failure is also 0.5
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Unfortunately, investors cannot observe the manager's actions (they can only observe the final outcome) and effort is costly for the manager. As a simplification, assume that the manager's cost of doing effort is equivalent to 3 million Euros.

1. What is the net present value (NPV) of the business if the manager provides effort? What is the NPV of the business if the manager does not provide effort?
In this case the NPV is: (Probability of success * Payoff if Success) + (Probability of Failure * Payoff if Failure) - Initial investment
If the manager provides effort, the NPV will be:
0.8 * 300 + 0.2 * 50 – 200 = 50 million USD = NPV1

If the manager does not provide effort, the NPV will be:
0.5 * 300 + 0.5 * 50 – 200 = -25 million USD = NPV2

2. If the investors offer a contract to the manager that implies giving him a fixed wage of 4 million,
Will he provide effort? [Note: the wage, since it is fixed, must be paid irrespective of the business actual performance]
The manager won’t provide any effort, because if he does, he will earn 4-3(cost of effort) = 1 million$,

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