...THE EVOLUTION OF STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY OVER TIME: A SURVEY OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE Kian-Ping Lim Universiti Malaysia Sabah and Monash University and Robert Brooks Monash University Background This paper provides an insight into the empirical literature as pertains the evolution of stock market efficiency over time, with a keen focus on the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The authors provide a systematic review of the correlation between several financial factors namely: Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH), Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH), Evolving Return Predictability, Stock markets and Weak-form EMH. The authors pay keen attention on how return predictability from past price changes is affected by key players and determinants on the stock markets. From the survey they conduct, the posit that the bulk of the empirical studies examine whether the stock market under study is or is not weak-form efficient in the absolute sense, assuming that the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. The authors acknowledge that one field that has drawn extensive investigation by scholars and other players alike is the predictability of stock returns on the basis of past price changes. This is partly due to its direct implication on weak-form market efficiency. They find that a vast majority of the literature implicitly assumes the level of market efficiency remains unchanged throughout the estimation period. However, the possibility...
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...Neuro-finance and stock trading Experiment tests A preliminary research proposal Paul Farah Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Procedures and methodology .................................................................................................................. 4 Experiments ............................................................................................................................................ 5 References .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction The ability to attribute mental states, including beliefs, desires, intentions, and emotions to others is a crucial social ability. Known as Theory of Mind (ToM), it is the capacity to use a working model that attributes internal mental states to others in order to manage interpersonal relations, regulate one’s own behavior, and predict the behavior of others (Premack and Woodruff (1978)). It is the ability to think about what another person is thinking about, even if the latter makes no sense in one’s own mind; and it is the ability to think about what another person thinks about you; etc. (Hampton, Bossaerts and ] O'Doherty (2007)). A variety of behavioral tests have been developed to measure ToM abilities (Baron-Cohen, Jolliffe, Mortimore and Robertson...
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...Developed and Developing Equity Markets Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah Assistant Professor-Finance, Department of Business Administration Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University Islamabad E-mail: zulfiqar.shah@gmail.com Muhammad Husnain Ph.D Scholar (Finance) Mohammad Ali Jinnah University Islamabad Email: Husnain_ctn@yahoo.com Abstract Financial economists have continuously questioned the efficient market hypothesis especially in last decade. Major part of discussion is whether the equity markets are efficient and if not then up to what extent one can forecast the meaningful future movement of equity prices. On one side there are believers of random walk and contrary there are followers of chartist theories. Those who negate the random walk suggested that there exist anomalies in the equity markets and hence are not perfectly efficient. The major objective of this study is to check the weak form of efficiency and presence of calendar anomalies in equity markets of developing and developed countries. On the basis of most recent and relatively longer horizon (14 Year) data on daily basis and a range of powerful econometrics this study suggested that in broader sense both of developed and developing equity markets are weak form inefficient. Hence there is no remarkable difference in term of market efficiency in equity markets of developed and developing countries. Hence one can reject the random walk hypothesis and therefore presence of markets efficiency is again a matter...
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...class of people so ISMAR should advertise their positions in English newspaper or if it seems costly then contact groups that are working in social websites for jobs. b. University Campaigns: Training workshops that gives the knowledge of financial market technicalities and present scenario of investment will encourage the students to come in this field. Currently ISMAR is conducting workshops on technical analysis that is less understood by the students. We should change our strategy and should come towards Seminar or conference. Also recruitment tests will do wonder if taken in universities that will also create goodwill of ISMAR among students c. Employee Referrals: The students who are on the training or the employees of ISMAR can refer their friends or colleagues who have the abilities to grow. This will supply the trust worthy and talented workforce to ISMAR. d. Social Networking sites: Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin and other social networking sites may generate talented people if proper advertisement is done. e. Company own Website: There should be a career section in the website where candidates can apply online. Ways to filter them (Selection): a. Aptitude Test: There should be an aptitude test for internship in ISMAR. The test should consist of 4 parts: Numerical reasoning, Verbal reasoning, Figural Reasoning and General knowledge. That will help in analyzing candidate’s logical and analytical...
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...securities market inefficiency. First we discuss how we define the securities market efficiency. According to the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH), the financial markets are “informationally efficient”. That is, no one can consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns by using any information that market already knows. That means when the investment is made, the information is publicly available. One important characteristic of the efficient market is we assume the prices of securities are fully reflective of all publicly known information about the security at all time. For Philip Service Corp. case, the head of this public company tried to artificially inflate its stock price by falsely overstating the amounts of Philip’s goodwill and inventory. The information which affected the price was the inventory and goodwill being overstated. Did this information belong to the publicly known information? The answer is no. This information was not publicly information. Then when did these problems present to the public? It was in year 1998. So we can assume this information did not present in Philip’s financial statements of year 1995 and 1996 and the first nine months of year 1997. Philip Service deliberately concealed certain information. The missing inventory, writeoffs of restructuring costs and goodwill writedowns were inside information until 1998. Market prices were certainly wrong in absence of these inside information. However, the market efficiency...
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... | FS3032 – Capital Markets MODULE HANDBOOK 2014/15 - Semester 1 Module Lecturer: Dr Phan Tran Trung Dzung Faculty of Banking and Finance / FTU fandzung@ftu.edu.vn This module is supported by Weblearn – students are advised to access the site on a regular basis, at least once a week FS3032 Capital Markets |Teaching Location |A1101 | |Teaching Semester |1 | |Module Level |H | |Home Academic Department |LMBS | |Module Leader |Dr Phan Tran Trung Dzung | |Module Web Site |FS3032C | |Teaching Mode |Day | |Module Title |Capital Markets | |Timeslot | | |Credit Rating For Module |15 | Module Summary CODE: FS3032C TITLE: Capital Markets: Investment & Portfolio Management BRIEF DESCRIPTION: The world of finance...
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...Explain why market prices are useful to a financial manager. It certainly depends on what industry you are in. A finance manager needs to know the price of things and getting a good handle on the market prices is a very good start. There is nothing more valuable to a shareholder or a director than a finance manager that saves the company heaps of money. Managers are interested in market prices for reasons better explain by market of economic theory. The classic market of economic theory is a call auction market where all market participants meet in one place at one time to arrive at a market clearing price through open outcry of bids and offers. In agricultural societies, these markets were often held annually, at harvest time, but the development of futures contracts has spread commodities trading over the year. Financial markets have traditionally been open each business day. As volume in many markets has grown, efficient continuous markets - some operating on a twenty-four-hour basis - have become the norm in currencies and in a few widely held securities. In general, market forces have dealt effectively with the reallocation of price and rate risk and have provided liquidity through securitization and the allocation of capital to market making. Market forces have not yet dealt adequately with the risk of market discontinuities. Discuss how the Valuation Principle helps a financial manager make decisions. The concept of value is at the heart of financial management, yet...
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...Vaidyanathan T he Capital Asset Pricing model is based on two parameter portfolio analysis model developed by Markowitz (1952). This model was simultaneously and independently developed by John Lintner (1965), Jan Mossin (1966) and William Sharpe (1964). In equation form the model can be expressed as follows: E (Ri) = Rf + (i [E(rm) – Rf] = Rf +(im / (m (E(Rm) – Rf / (m) Where E(Ri) is expected return on asset i, Rf is the risk-free rate of return, E(Rm) is expected return on market proxy and (i; is a measure of risk specific to asset i. This relationship between expected return on asset i and expected return on market portfolio is also called the security market line. If CAPM is valid, all securities will lie in a straight line called the security market line in the E(R), (i frontier. The security market line implies that return is a linearly increasing function of risk. Moreover, only the market risk affects the return and the investor receive no extra return for bearing diversifiable (residual) risk. The set of assumptions employed in the development of the CAPM can be summarized as follows [Sears and Trennepohl (1993)]: 1. Investors are risk-averse and they have a preference for expected return and a dislike for risk. 2. Investors make investment decisions based on expected return and the variances of security returns, i.e. two-parameter utility function. 3. Investors behave in a normative sense and desire to...
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...Chapter 16: Market efficiency: Concept of market efficiency An efficient market has been defined as one in which the prices of securities fully reflect all available information. This requires that the reaction of the market prices to new information should be instantaneous and unbiased. If such conditions exist, it will not be possible (except by chance) to employ either past information or a mechanical trading strategy to generate returns in excess of the returns warranted by the level of risk involved. In short, consistent excess profits will not be made. Or in an efficient market it is not possible to consistently make an abnormal return. Statement 1 What would cause a market to be efficient? The main argument in support of efficiency is the existence of a competitive market in which numerous investors are competing in an effort to make abnormal returns. It is suggested that, in such a market, investors will seek information and take immediate action to buy or sell securities based on any new information. As a result, information will be impounded very quickly in market prices. Market efficiency may be improved by an increase in the quantity and quality of information that is made publicly available, and a reduction in restrictions on insider trading. Statement 1 * New information regarding securities comes to the market in random fashion. * Profit maximising investors cause security prices to adjust rapidly to reflect the effect of new information. ...
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...October 28, 2011 The Efficient-Market Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis Burton G. Malkiel* Abstract The world-wide financial crisis of 2008-2009 has left in its wake severely damaged economies in the United States and Europe. The crisis has also shaken the foundations of modern-day financial theory, which rested on the proposition that our financial markets were basically efficient. Critics have even suggested that the efficient--market–hypotheses (EMH) was in large part, responsible for the crises. This paper argues that the critics of EMH are using a far too restrictive interpretation of what EMH means. EMH does not imply that asset prices are always “correct.” Prices are always wrong, but no one knows for sure if they are too high or too low. EMH does not imply that bubbles in asset prices are impossible nor does it deny that environmental and behavioral factors cannot have profound influences on required rates of return and risk premiums. At its core, EMH implies that arbitrage opportunities for riskless gains do not exist in an *Princeton University. I am indebted to Alan Blinder and to the participants in the Russell Sage Conference on Economic Lessons From the Financial Crisis for extremely helpful comments. 2 efficiently functioning market and if they do appear from time to time that they do not persist. The evidence is clear that this version of EMH is strongly supported by the data. EMH can comfortably coexist with behavior finance, and the insights of Hyman...
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...OFFERINGS: EVIDENCE FROM THE SINGAPORE IPO MARKET VOON PEIJUN (Bachelor of Business Administration (Hons), NUS) A THESIS SUBMITTED FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF SCIENCE (BUSINESS) DEPART DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND ACCOUNTING NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE 2009 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my warmest gratitude to Professor Michael Shih for his patient guidance and encouragement all this while. A very big thank you, Sir. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank my family for their love and concern all these years. Thank you Dad, Mum and Brother. Without their support, I would not have come so far. Thank you! Voon Peijun 2009 Page i ABSTRACT The study explores the role of issue managers in the initial public offering (IPO) process. Empirical research shows that IPOs are associated with two significant market anomalies: short-run underpricing puzzle and long-run underperformance phenomenon. This paper examines the reputational influence of issue managers on the two anomalies. Employing the newly developed ‘twelve-month rolling’ reputation ranking approach, our study is the first to furnish a comprehensive ranking of all the issue managers with a substantial presence in Singapore. Based on a sample of 384 IPOs listed on the Singapore Exchange between January 1, 1997 and August 22, 2008, we find evidence of prevalent short-run underpricing and long-run underperformance in the domestic market. Our findings indicate that the IPOs backed...
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...Lecture 1 Capital Market and Long Term Finance * Capital Formation (Raise capital to increase their assets and fund working capital) * Markets * Common Stock (long-term security) * Bonds (long-term security) * Derivatives (long-term security) Financial Markets * Exchanges * Specialists (NYSE has SPECIALISTS maintain an orderly market in a stock at a trading station) * Intermediary Firms (NASDAQ has INTERMEDIARY FIRMS maintain a market for a given share * Publicly Traded (Security, corporations register through the FCC) Forms of Ownership * Partnership * Corporation (Shareholders have limited liability of their own share) * Privately Held * Publicly Trade Common Stock: Is a share in the ownership of the firm Issuer Advantages (the company): 1. Beyond the public offering there are no fixed charges. 2. There is not fixed maturity. 3. Common stock increases the credit worthiness of a firm. 4. Common stock can at times be sold more easily than debt. Issuer Disadvantages (the company): 1. Extends voting rights or control to additional stockholders 2. Gives more owners the right to share income. 3. Initial costs of “underwriting” and distribution are higher than bonds. 4. Changes the debt/equity mix of the firm. 5. Dividends are not deductible form taxable income. (why isn’t dividends a deductible for companies) Investor Advantages (the individual): 1. Participate in growth of firms...
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...towards various investment avenues in Capital Market with special reference to Derivatives. by Dr. K. RAVICHANDRAN, READER, Bharathidasan Institute of Management, (School of Excellence of Bharathidasan University), Tiruchirapalli. Introduction: In India, generally all capital market investment avenues are perceived to be risky by the investors. But the younger generation investors are willing to invest in capital market instruments and that too very highly in Derivatives segment. Even though the knowledge to the investors in the Derivative segment is not adequate, they tend to take decisions with the help of the brokers or through their friends and were trying to invest in this market. This study was undertaken to find out the awareness level of various capital market instruments and also to find out their risk preference in various segments. Need for the study: To educate investors who are risk averse for trade in derivatives Awareness about the various uses of derivatives can help investors to reduce the risk and minimize the losses REVIEW OF LITERATURE “Investment property portfolio management and financial derivatives” by Patrick McAllister, John R. Mansfield. His study on Derivatives has been an expanding and controversial feature of the financial markets since the late 1980s. They are used by a wide range of manufacturers and investors to manage risk. This paper analyses the role and potential of financial derivatives investment property portfolio management...
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...The EMH is in performance vital role in financial economics literature, EMH is recognized technique for calculating the future assessment of the stock price. Usually an asset market is mentioned to be an efficient if the asset price in inquiry must completely reflect on all obtainable information and if, it is correct information that cannot be likely for market to contributors to earn abnormal profit. For calculating the estimate is recognized technique is EMH are three variations: • All historical price information, which is reflected in stock prices in the weak form efficiency in managing information set. • Semi-strong form efficiency is all publicly available information (e.g. dividends, earnings and merger announcements shares is reflected...
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...PPT 17 March 2015 BANK REGULATION AND MANAGEMENT (Assets Quality and Financial Ratios) CHAPTER 9b Dr. Norliza Che Yahya Center for Economics and Finance Studies Faculty of Business and Management Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 42300 Puncak Alam Campus, Office: PFI 04 -032 Office (tel): 03-3258 7077 Email: norliza9911@puncakalam.uitm.edu.my or norlizacheyahya@yahoo.com LOGO 1 LOGO Content of Syllabus CODE CHAPTER WEEK NOTE Ppt 1- 4 Introduction and Overview of Financial System 1-3 Ppt 5-6 Interest rates and the role of a central bank 4 Test 1 Ppt 7-8 Money Market & Foreign Exchange market 5-6 (15%) Ppt 9-10 Capital market – Equity and Bond market 7-8 Ppt 11 Derivatives market Ppt 12 Offshore market 9 - 10 Ppt 13 Financial Legal Framework 10 - 11 Test 2 Ppt 14 Banking products & services 11 - 12 (15%) Ppt 15-16 Banking regulation and management 12 - 14 9 2 Chapter Outline NO. 1. LOGO CONTENT Asset quality – loan portfolio and problem loan management Bank credit process (loan life cycle) Problem loan detection (red flags): (i) accounts operation, (ii) business operations and (iii) external factors Loan recovery techniques – Collective workout agreement, collateral liquidation and bankruptcy 2. Performance evaluation of banks – financial statement analysis Ratios – Profitability, Liquidity, Asset Quality, Capital ...
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