...Industry Industry Forecasting Joey Willoughby BUS620 Managerial Marketing Instructor: Dr. Mary Wright July 2, 2012 Industry Forecasting An organizational environment is composed of “the actors and forces” outside marketing that affect marketing management’s power to develop and sustain successful transactions with its target consumers. Macro-forecasting in industrial settings is basically concerned with the forecasting of markets in total. This concerns the existing level of market demand, while also considering the market’s future. New homes are a product offered within an industry (construction), in which macro-trends could have a major impact over the next five (5) years. An organization’s macro-environment relates to the larger forces having a direct impression on society as a whole. An organization has little, if any ability to sway these said forces, and thus can only adapt its marketing mix to provide a reason for the resulting opportunities and threats. (Weigand, Robert A. 2012) There are many features of an industry that may determine the degree of competition, as well as the relative position of profitability in an organization. Several macro-trends encompass industry forecasting and can impact either negatively or positively within an organization. The macro-trends include: Economic trends: In this particular...
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...Industry Forecasting Joey Willoughby BUS620 Managerial Marketing Instructor: Dr. Mary Wright July 2, 2012 Industry Forecasting An organizational environment is composed of “the actors and forces” outside marketing that affect marketing management’s power to develop and sustain successful transactions with its target consumers. Macro-forecasting in industrial settings is basically concerned with the forecasting of markets in total. This concerns the existing level of market demand, while also considering the market’s future. New homes are a product offered within an industry (construction), in which macro-trends could have a major impact over the next five (5) years. An organization’s macro-environment relates to the larger forces having a direct impression on society as a whole. An organization has little, if any ability to sway these said forces, and thus can only adapt its marketing mix to provide a reason for the resulting opportunities and threats. (Weigand, Robert A. 2012) There are many features of an industry that may determine the degree of competition, as well as the relative position of profitability in an organization. Several macro-trends encompass industry forecasting and can impact either negatively or positively within an organization. The macro-trends include: Economic trends: In this particular macro-trend...
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...Explanation Forecasting is defined as actively predicting a future event or condition, Many forecasting decision or methods or informal such as a gut feeling or intuition, recent experiences, rule of thumb, advice from a friend or friends, or a combination but some use models and math mathematical methods. Since forecasting informal methods can be highly subjective, those utilized by government or business need to be more formal as informal approaches may problematic and untainted. More systematic methods are often employed as business and government forecasting approaches need to be made in the interest of the public, community or business (McCalman, 2012) This topic was chosen for academic as well professional interest as correct and accurate forecasting can serve as great cost saving methods or revenue generator for an organization. Article Review & Comparison McCalman defines forecasting as the prediction of future events comparing both informal and formal methods both in business and government. The most informal method or formalization discussed by McCalman is forecasting based on most recent observation. Systematic forecasting existing at the opposite extreme uses data and mathematical methods used largely or restricted forty years ago to experts with large computing power. As time has progressed the systematic methods not only utilized technology and data but statistical information and statistical software programs, which has opened forecasting up to those...
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...Forecasting is an important aspect in today’s business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the company’s business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is done. Understanding the Financial Relationships of the Business Enterprise Forecasters use current information to predict the future business activities of the company. This information is found on the financial statements of the company. For example, the balance sheet provides a snapshot of the business’ assets, liabilities and equity at a specific point in time, whereas the incomes statement provides a view of the flow of costs during a specific time frame. Financial ratios measure the relationships between various items on the financial statements. By comparing various ratios with those of previous years, trends can be identified. Because many financial ratios tend to be perserved over time, these ratios are very valuable for the forcaster. The forecaster can estimate only one financial statement line item and, by applying this number to the various ratios, he can make a complete forecast. Grounding Business Forecasts in the Reality of the Industry and Macroenvironment An accurate forecast is made by recognizing not only internal data, but also external data. The environment...
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...a p p e n d i x C DEMAND FORECASTING IN MARKETING * When you finish this appendix you should • Understand the principles of forecasting. • Know the differences between Time Series and Regression Analyses. • Understand how expert opinion, sales forces and consumer opinions can all contribute to better forecasts. * by Beverley Thompson, The University of Western Sydney, Nepean Demand Forecasting in Mar keting w 689 An important part of the marketing planning process is the setting of goals that are realistic and achievable, given a particular marketing environment and level of marketing commitment. In marketing, such goals are usually based on market share objectives and sales targets, both of which require accurate forecasts of total market size, market size of target segments and likely market share within a targeted segment. W H AT A R E W E F O R E C A S T I N G ? Accurate forecasting requires a clear definition of the market in question. Markets may be differentiated on the basis of the following variables. GEOGRAPHY A market may be defined at world, country, state, region, sales territory, town, store or customer level. When formulating a forecast or other marketing plans, the geographical dimension must be clearly indicated. Planning Coca Cola consumption for the year 2000 Sydney Olympics for example, will necessitate the forecasting of increased consumption for the Sydney sales region, but not necessarily for Brisbane...
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...Administration Fall 2011 Date Submitted August 31, 2011 Forecasting is an important aspect in today's business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the company’s business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is done. Understanding the Financial Relationships of the Business Enterprise Forecasters use current information to predict the future business activities of the company. This information is found on the financial statements of the company. For example, the balance sheet provides a snapshot of the business’ assets, liabilities and equity at a specific point in time, whereas the incomes statement provides a view of the flow of costs during a specific time frame. Financial ratios measure the relationships between various items on the financial statements. By comparing various ratios with those of previous years, trends can be identified. Because many financial ratios tend to be preserved over time, these ratios are very valuable for the forecaster. The forecaster can estimate only one financial statement line item and, by applying this number to the various ratios, he can make a complete forecast. Grounding Business Forecasts in the Reality of the Industry and Macroenvironment An accurate forecast is made by recognizing...
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...Forecasting is described as, “the art and science of predicting future events” (Heizer, Render, & Griffen, 2014). It’s used a planning tool that helps management cope with the uncertainty of the future. Forecasting has many purposes within businesses and the purpose will vary depending on what type of organization you’re running or working for. Forecasting includes many different types of techniques that have the ability to give detailed information about future measurements, challenges of future events, and the changes in the environment. It can also analyze present data and effective planning in both the short run and the long run fully depends on the forecasts established for the company’s products. Forecasting gives confidence in those making important decisions due to the relevant and reliable information predicted. Forecasting may involve the use of historical data through mathematical equations to track future trends, which is known as quantitative forecasts. Quantitative methods of forecasting falls into two categories, the Time Series Models such as Naïve Approach, Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing as well as the Associative Model that includes Trend Projection and Linear Regression. Forecasting may also be used in a more subjective or intuitive prediction if historical data is not present, which is known as qualitative forecasts. This category of forecasting involves four specific techniques used, Jury of executive opinion, Delphi Method, Sales Force Composite...
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...ecological imperatives must be in built to the total planning process if the longterm goal of making industrial development sustainable is to be achieved. Here we will try to define and discuss the role of Environmental Analysis in the strategic management process of organization. The present complex world require as far as is feasible, it consider impact of important factors related to organizations in strategic planning. The strategic planning of business includes all functional subdivisions and forwards them in a united direction. One of these subsystems is human resource management. Strategic human resource management comes after the strategic planning, and followed by strategic human resource planning as a major activity in all the industries. In strategic planning, it can use...
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...complexity and degree of change existing in an organization’s external environment certainly has a significant impact on an organization’s ability to keep up and remain competitive. On a positive note, complexity and change in an organization’s external environment can generate creativity and innovation in the strategic decision making process. Question: Compare and contrast trend extrapolation with the writing of scenarios as forecasting techniques. Answer: About 70% of the world’s largest corporations use trend extrapolation as their method for forecasting. Extrapolation is nothing more than the extension of current trends into the future. The primary problem with trend extrapolation is that it assumes that the global economic situation is fairly consistent and doesn’t change very much in the short-term. In addition, trend extrapolation is based on a series of patterns and/or relationships among many competing variables, where a change in any one variable can drastically alter the future direction of the historical trend. On the other hand, scenario writing is the more widely used forecasting method. Scenario writing enables the preparer to describe in writing some future state of an organization or business unit. It is merely a...
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...APPLE’S MAKE - VS. - BUY DECISION Abstract In today’s society having high performance employees are vital to the success of a company. These employees are ultimately the product of effective HR resources. It is important companies to use their resources to produce top performers, while improving the profitability of the organization. Keywords: performance, recruiting, resources, employees, budgeting In today’s economy, recruitment is the key to growing a successful company. The ability to identify the right person for a job is pivotal in the success or failure of a company. Strategic planning is required as well as an implemented recruiting system in the search for those top employees. There are various recruitment approaches that would be best suited for Apple in hopes of securing the most valuable candidates. Job postings, referrals, and advertisements will inform the community about the various positions they have open, while also creating buzz about the company potentially leading to more business. Proactive referrals are key to recruiting top candidates. Rather than waiting for key individuals to refer candidates, going directly to the top performers and asking them for targeted referrals can help to secure a qualified candidate. Asking them specifically to refer their mentees, best retirees they know, and former colleagues will increase the chances of obtaining the best recruits. This approach would help Apple because it would eliminate the chances of hiring someone...
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...Industry Forecasting Conducting sales forecasts can prove to be one of the more complex responsibilities for management. Organizations must attempt to look to the future to plan for investments, commence new services or products, and make a decision on whether to suspend or extract other services or products that are currently on the market. Sales forecasts assist with preparing the budget, campaigns and new approaches for the future marketing plans. According to Mullins and Walker (2010) an organization must decide upon a technique to organize for forecasting. The organization must take into account the market potential to determine the consumer demand for new services or products. Forecasting assists in predicting sales revenue for at least five years in advance. Forecasting will also serve as a means to identify the target market and trends that could impact the sales of the new service or product. The cell phone industry has proven to be one with continuous evolvement. As technology advances the innovation and competitive market continues to generate more options for consumers at low competitive pricing. Consumers in the cell phone market are demanding higher quality cell phones with multi functioning capabilities that have forced manufacturers to create cell phones that combine numerous electronic devices into one cell phone. Cell phones are now being manufactured with the functioning of cameras, video cameras, computers, personal organizers, music players, global positioning...
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...ecological imperatives must be in built to the total planning process if the longterm goal of making industrial development sustainable is to be achieved. Here we will try to define and discuss the role of Environmental Analysis in the strategic management process of organization. The present complex world require as far as is feasible, it consider impact of important factors related to organizations in strategic planning. The strategic planning of business includes all functional subdivisions and forwards them in a united direction. One of these subsystems is human resource management. Strategic human resource management comes after the strategic planning, and followed by strategic human resource planning as a major activity in all the industries. In strategic planning, it can use...
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...Industry Forecasting Introduction Trend analysis and forecasting play a big part in projecting a product’s assumed success or failure within the different markets. This paper will identify a particular product and present research illustrating the major trends that will impact that industry over the next five years. Finally, I will synthesize how those anticipated trends might impact the successful marketing of the product. Product The iPad is a highly portable tablet pc designed by Apple to enable its users to surf the internet, wherever there is an internet connection and with the cellphone industry providing Wi-Fi, this connection can be made practically anywhere. Apple released the iPad to the public in April 3, 2010 and functions like a touch screen computer with access to web browsing, email, photos, videos, music, games, e-books, and much more (Apple, 2010). This high definition portable pc has revolutionized the way people define computers and innovatively captured the market share. Future Trends The Apple iPad has without a doubt made a tremendous splash in the ocean of portable computing. In terms of trend setting, Apple seems to be the leader when it comes to creating and producing a product, while others stumble over to mimic. This is supported by the idea that those organizations that can identify and effectively deal with the key trends before its competitors do, is much more likely to win and retain the competitive advantage (Mullins & Walker...
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...CHAPTER PART 2 2 Forecasting Demand and Supply FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY LEARNING OBJECTIVES • • • • • • Understand and select information required to forecast HRP Identify members of the HR planning team Understand the four steps in the HRP process Apply techniques to forecast HR demand and supply Describe various methods for assessing labour planning (quantitative and qualitative) Discuss key challenges in forecasting HR demand and supply 26 Part 2 | Forecasting Demand and Supply ■ PROFILE The Great Pyramid of Giza The Great Pyramid of Giza has fascinated the world for centuries and is revered as one of the greatest mysteries of time. When it was first built it was 145 metres tall, making it the tallest structure on the earth for over 4,300 years. Egyptologists argue that even with all of the human and computer advancements achieved to date, it would be near impossible to replicate the production of these pyramids. The HR planning scale of the project would be among the biggest challenges to face. Archaeologists have their own methods for determining how many workers (mostly slaves) were employed at Giza, but a majority agree that the Great Pyramid was built by approximately 4,000 primary labourers—quarry workers, haulers, and masons. These primary labourers would have been supported by 16,000 to 20,000 secondary workers—ramp builders, tool-makers, mortar mixers, and those providing back-up services such as supplying food, clothing, and fuel. These estimates suggest...
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...how my chosen corporation American Express applies some of the forecasting techniques to better develop the company. There will also be the analysis of production plans, master production schedules, and carrying inventory and how it relates to the overall American Express budget. Along with all the above we will also compare and contrast how planning usage differentiates between a service organization such as American Express and a manufacturing organization. Lastly we will also compare and contrast the use of material requirements planning system concepts. When it comes to forecasting it is first important to determine the different types of forecasting and how they are classified. In forecasting there are four basic types which are qualitative, time series analysis, casual relationship, and simulation. The first forecasting type qualitative is "subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions", (Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano, 2006). Some of the main characteristics of qualitative forecasting are market research which is encompassed by collecting data by surveys and interviews which help determine market hypothesis. This research is most commonly used for long range and new product sales. This would be a great description as to when American Express uses surveys to improve on new production of invoicing and reporting tools to provide to our clients. Another characteristic to qualitative forecasting is historical analogy. This is the one characteristic that would...
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