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Forecasting with Indices

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Forecasting with Indices Jamie Prather QRB/501 April 23rd, 2012

Measuring the winter historical inventory data for the next 12 months consists of preparing a simple exponential forecast method to determine the method of simple average during the 12 separate indices. The forecast was processed by Running mean Absolute Deviation (RMAD) was computed by taking the average of two one-year-wide averages that are offset by one period relative to each other. Computing the ratio divided by the moving average in each period. Running sum of forecast errors were computed by taking the differences between the actual and the forecast demand for the periods being evaluated.

| | | | | | Alpha | 0.2 | | | | Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | | Forecast | ABS Value | RMAD | RSFE | TS | 1 | | 39800 | 32180 | 62300 | 189,480 | 189,480 | | | | | 2 | 57350 | 64100 | 38600 | 66500 | 226,550 | 189480 | 37070 | 37070 | 37,070 | 1 | 3 | 15400 | 47600 | 25020 | 31400 | 119,420 | 196894 | 77474 | 114544 | -40,404 | -0.35274 | 4 | 27700 | 43050 | 51300 | 36400 | 158,450 | 181399.2 | 22949.2 | 137493.2 | -63,353 | -0.46077 | 5 | 21400 | 39300 | 31790 | 16800 | 109,290 | 176809.4 | 67519.36 | 205012.6 | -130,873 | -0.63836 | 6 | 17100 | 10300 | 31100 | 18900 | 77,400 | 163305.5 | 85905.49 | 290918 | -216,778 | -0.74515 | 7 | 18000 | 45100 | 59800 | 35500 | 158,400 | 146124.4 | 12275.61 | 303193.7 | -204,502 | -0.67449 | 8 | 19800 | 46530 | 30740 | 51250 | 148,320 | 148579.5 | 259.5123 | 303453.2 | -204,762 | -0.67477 | 9 | 15700 | 22100 | 47800 | 34400 | 120,000 | 148527.6 | 28527.61 | 331980.8 | -233,290 | -0.70272 | 10 | 53600 | 41350 | 73890 | 68000 | 236,840 | 142822.1 | 94017.91 | 425998.7 | -139,272 | -0.32693 | 11 | 83200 | 46000 | 60200 | 68100 | 257,500 | 161625.7 | 95874.33 | 521873 | -43,397 | -0.08316 | 12 | 72900 | 41800 | 55200 | 61100 | 231,000 | 180800.5 | 50199.46 | 572072.5 | 6,802 | 0.01189 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

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