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TOPIC 1. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING
TOPIC I
TOPIC I. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING Contents
1. Meaning of forecasting
2. Features, importance and limitations of forecasting
3. Forecast types 1. Meaning of forecasting
Forecast is a likely, scientifically well-grounded opinion about the possible state of the events, objects or processes in the future.
Forecasting is a process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data.
Economic Forecasting is a process of making forecasts based on analysis of past trends and regularities of the economic processes. Economic forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation – for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit – or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific companies.
Economic forecasting provides information about the potential future events and their consequences for the organization. It may not reduce the complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. Economic forecasting includes the following steps:
1. Identifying items to be forecast. The items of socio-economic forecasting are the economic processes (for example, inflation, demand, supply), any indicator describing the company activity (for example, price, profit, income, costs), any indicator describing the national economics (for example, gross domestic product, national income, export, import, external debt), any indicator describing the social processes (for example, wage, bonus fund, incentive fund, overtime payments).
2. Setting time limits (time horizon) to forecast. There are the following types of forecasts, such as:

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