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Fred Housing Data Project

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Submitted By kytho95
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ECON 2315 1:35-­‐3:15

Kyle Ozuna

Macro Theory Second Paper: Housing Market

Data Sources: Housing Starts -­‐ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST S&P Case Shiller -­‐ http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm Housing Supply -­‐ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MSACSR

*Used recessions beginning in 1970 since the FRED housing data only goes back to 1963 and there was no recession between 1963-­‐1970 ** All data supplied is seasonally adjusted

The first indicator I used to measure the housing market was housing starts, the beginning of new residential construction projects. When compiling the data, I chose to compare level of housing starts per month during the recoveries. The recovery since the 2009 recession has definitely been slower than that of previous recessions in the United States. For starters, the level of housing starts in the 2009 recovery is lower than that of any previous recovery; housing starts have averaged 1633 units per month in past 5 year recovery periods following recessions, however, in the recovery since the 2009 recession, housing starts have only averaged 733 units per month.

The next indicator that I used to measure the housing market was the S&P/Case-­‐Shiller Index, which measures repeat sales of single-­‐family homes. I compared the index for each month in the recovery as compared to the month that the recession officially ended. In addition to fewer houses being built, housing prices, after seeing a significant drop when the housing bubble burst in 2008, are increasing slower than they did in past recoveries. During recessions, the Case-­‐
Shiller
Index is characterized by a sharp decline as housing prices fall followed by an increase as the market eventually recovers. In previous recoveries, the Index started increasing one to two months after the recessions officially ended. However, in relation to the 2009 recovery, housing prices acted quite differently. Instead of increasing right off the bat, prices fluctuated between small increases and decreases

ECON 2315 1:35-­‐3:15

Kyle Ozuna

for 46 months following the June 2009 trough. It wasn’t until a full 47 months after the recovery ended that housing prices saw sustained increases. At the end of the 5-­‐ year recovery (2009 to 2014), housing prices only increased by 10%. On average for previous recoveries, housing prices increased almost 40% in the same 5-­‐year timespan.

The final indicator I used to measure the recovery of the housing market was the monthly supply of houses, which measures the ratio of homes for sale to homes sold. Generally, a ratio of 6.0 is considered indicative of a healthy market. A ratio above 6.0 indicates an excess of sellers, while a ratio under 6.0 indicates an excess of buyers. Until about halfway through the 2009-­‐2014 recovery, the market had a ratio far above 6.0, meaning that there were many homes on the market that people simply weren’t buying. At around 29 months after the June 2009 trough, the monthly supply decreased to between 4.0 and 5.0 for the rest of the recovery. These numbers indicate that the second half of the recovery saw a decrease in the housing inventory, a fact supported by the decrease in housing starts.

These three indicators signify that while the economy is recovering it’s recovering at a slower pace than that of previous recessions. Fewer houses are being built, prices are increasing at a slow pace, and the inventory of houses for sale is minimal.

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