...William Jaeger From: Consulting Group Date: January 19, 2013 Subject: Options and Best Practices for Winery From my research, word of mouth and your product itself, I am aware that Freemark Abbey Winery’s reputation is one of its greatest strengths. However, I understand that the weather plays as both a threat and opportunity for the wine industry as a whole. There are reports of a rainstorm in route to Napa Valley with a 50% chance of striking your winery; this is why you have reached out to my firm, Consulting Group. We have carefully analyzed all options and are ready to offer our recommendation. Problem Freemark Abbey Winery is known for producing premium wines; nevertheless, not choosing the best action to take in anticipation of this rainstorm may hinder your ability to even produce a premium wine for sale this quarter. A decision tree was constructed to weigh out Freemark Abbey Winery’s options. The winery has two alternatives: 1. do nothing and wait for the storm to greet the winery or 2. harvest the grapes immediately to avoid the rainstorm’s effects. Both options yield vastly different alternatives that we deem critical to your winery’s profit, revenue and reputation. Evaluation If Freemark Abbey immediately harvests its grapes, it incurs little risk and no further worry at first glance. Conversely, this option allows the winery to harvest “not quite-ripe grapes” resulting in weak revenues. This option contributes $2.85 of profit per bottle...
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...Freemark Abbey Winery Group ZZZ 1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of “Do not harvest & Bottling”: $39240 EV of “Do not harvest & Not bottling”: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640 EV of “Harvest”: $34200 If the winery’s reputation is of great importance for long term profitability, he should choose to sell the wine in bulk, or sell the grapes directly to avoid impairing reputation. Besides, Riesling wines contribute only about 1,000 cases of wine, and the whole winery produced about 25,000 cases of wine bottled each year. Since the Riesling takes only about 4% of winery’s total production and the decision analysis only affects a small proportion of winery revenues, an expected value approach is used (not expected utility approach). However, if Jaeger is extremely risk average or the winery could not afford any risks at that time, he could choose to harvest immediately to reduce uncertainty. 3. Incorporate the option that Jaeger can obtain perfect weather information on the path of the storm into your decision tree. Note that the type of storm remains uncertain. 4. What should he do now? And at most how much he is willing to pay for this...
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...information you provided on the imminent storm and its potential consequences, I have made significant headway in determining what course(s) of action Freemark Abbey Winery can take confidently. However, more important than what the two page summary explains is the information it disregards. The limited scope of information in regards to harvesting options, brand reputation, competitive analysis, managerial risk tolerance, and consumer preferences contribute to a considerable framing bias. Additionally, we have failed to consider the decision of when/how to harvest the Riesling grapes from the perspectives of the various parties involved, including but not limited to other owners, your families, company shareholders, competitors, employees, retailers, and your own. These perspectives are essential in formulating the appropriate problem from which to solve your dilemma. If short-term profit maximization is your goal, with no regard for any of the considerations listed above (a non-exhaustive list), then your best alternative is not to harvest any of your Riesling grapes before the storm. Your Expected Monetary Value for this option is $3.27/bottle; you could expect revenues of $39,240. The highest expected revenue given the “No Harvest” decision is $67,200 ($8.00/bottle), and the lowest is $24,000 ($2.00/bottle). Given Freemark Abbey’s aspirations to compete with Chateau Lafite-Rothschild products, however, it would be short-sighted to ignore the impact of a sub-standard product...
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...Freemark Abbey Winery Case The Freemark Abbey Winery must decide whether to harvest their grape crop before or after an incoming storm. If the storm is light there is a chance of the grapes developing a mold, which is beneficial to the flavor and increases the wine’s value. There is also a possibility that the grapes will not become botrytised and will simply absorb water which will reduce the wine value. There are a number of options available to the winery in this situation. The grapes may be harvested immediately, resulting in a reduced revenue. This option is low risk, but also has low return as the grapes will reach a market value of $2.85 per case. If harvested and sold in bulk the grapes will be values at only $1.00 per case. If 12,000 cases are produced the total revenue will be $34,200 maximum and $12,000 minimum. The advantages of this are that the entire grape crop is not going to be lost (low risk), that there will be a guarantee of some profit, and that production can begin earlier. On the other hand there is a higher likelihood of a low return, particularly on the grapes sold in bulk. If the grapes are left on the vine and a storm does not come they will only ripen more. This option could lead to equal or greater profits than those found by harvesting immediately. The grapes left on the vine will have the potential to develop to bring in anywhere from $30000 to $46000. The disadvantages of this option would be the potential that the grapes’ sugar will not develop...
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...distribution channels. These developments were occurring in an environment of rapidly growing demand from new consumers in nontraditional markets. BRLH’s roots could be traced back to 1853 when Thomas Hardy, a 23-year-old English vineyard laborer, acquired land and planted it with vines. In 1857 he produced his first vintage, exporting two hogsheads to England, and by 1882 he had won his first international gold medal at Bordeaux. When Hardy died in 1912, his company was Australia’s largest winemaker, but also one of the most respected. After his death his sons took over the company and formed Australia’s first cooperative winery in 1916, naming it the Renmano Wine Cooperative. With the success and the development in the market Hardy felt they need to expand on its UK sales. This move led management to begin talking about the possibility of buying European wineries that could provide their newly acquired distributors with the critical mass and credibility to give Hardy’s wines greater access to Europe. Hardy’s board felt this was an ideal time to invest. Almost immediately, however, problems surfaced in all three of the European acquisitions and millions of dollars. Combined with a recession driven market slowdown at home, these problems plunged Hardy into losses. When one of Hardy’s banks called in a loan and the company was forced to look for a financial partner, BRL was there. BRL management decided to propose a merger. Following the merger, ex-BRL executives assumed the majority...
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...and they are shorthanded on developers. The company is confronted with two major alternatives (1) Stay with their current business model or (2) Create a different business model in order to not only stay on business but to compete and regain the members both individuals and wineries that they have lost to their competitors. Situation Analysis Since Cork’d inception in February 2006, the company was designed for and by wine lovers. Time showed that this industry had such a demand that needed more dedication and that is when Gary Vaynerchuck bought the company. He, then later appointed CEO, Lindsay Ronga to run the company. Under the new administration, individuals could register for free; however, the main source of income came from the $999 winery annual signup fees. There is brief mention of other source of revenue, which are the commissions Cork’d receives for outbound clicks to an external third-party site that sold wines. Being that their business model did not utilized any other type of strategy to attract customers (wineries and individuals) not even through web advertisements, Cork’d was constrain to their sole revenue source. After the re-launched of the new and improved website, 42 wineries signed up, as previously mentioned at $999 each. However, this amount of money ($41,958) was not going to be able to cover for their expenses as follow described: • Labor costs - Lindsay Ronga – CEO - Harvard MBA - Full-time CTO - Five summer interns • Other costs...
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...NAME, LOCATION & NATURE Name: Winery Comply Location: Napa, Ca Nature: To provide affordable compliance solutions and services to the wine industry. From tax preparation, inventory and shipping sales tax tracking control with new software programs with first hand technical and training support. SELF-ANALYSIS. Skills, abilities and competencies We provide first rate winery compliance software to better meet the needs of those in the winery business. One of our great strengths is the program was written internally and is owned by that same person. Having a great computer programming background we are able to change the software on the spot to better meet the needs of the individual wineries then having them have to adopt to the software to meet their needs are having to conduct business with more than one software. We provide both installation and training onsite or remotely to better meet the needs of the customer. This is outlined in the contract that I signed before install. Unlike most other companies we are providing a tech support team that has regular office hours for remote work and we can scheduled on site demonstrations for other shareholder in the winery as well as training for those individuals. We are taking the mandated laws on shipping wine for accurate sales tax and partnering it with winery operations. Reports can be pulled to determine amount of money that has to be paid to the shipped to state and you can also pull monthly inventory reports to...
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...E & J Gallo Winery is a winery and distributor in Modesto, California. Two brothers Ernest Gallo and Julio Gallo founded E & J Gallo Winery in 1933. In 2006 wine in the United States represented a $28 billion industry with 716 million gallons sold. 92 million gallons were desert wines. The desert wine segment is 8% of US wine sales so it’s not that important in the wine industry. According to time Thunderbird and Night train account for less than 3% of sales for Gallo, although Gallo's brands make up 16.1% of the dessert wine category. The redeeming features would be both brands, although thought to be "wino" drinks, provide an entry to the market place for some drinkers. They are sweet, and more palatable to the new drinker as well as readily available. The key success factors in the dessert wine segment have been placement of this product. Supermarkets, corner liquor stores, warehouse clubs carry it. Like it or not it is a staple on the shelves. These wines were the beginning of Gallo and it was not until the late '70's that Gallo started doing premium wines and wine coolers (80's). At first the premium wines were marketed without Gallo's name on them. Now, as years have passed and Gallo's various premium wines have won acclaim the Gallo name is on the premium wine, and not on the dessert wines. While there is not a strategic fit per se between the two there is an economy of scale present and both Gallo and the liquor distributors/ retailers benefit by the company offering...
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...Alternative Actions: Identify at least three possible courses of action to address problem: Key Decision Criteria: Identify specific criteria used to evaluate alternatives: Analysis of Alternatives: Recommendations: Initial Implementation plans for the Delivery alternative : Monitoring/Control procedures E & J Gallo Winery Summary of Situation: Identification and brief explanation of key information in the case affecting eventual decisions: The below information’s I believe to great extend affects the eventual decisions of the case. Ernest and Julio Gallo were the founders of E. & J. Gallo Winery. Since its establishment in 1993, E. & J. Gallo Winery had undergone rapid growth from a small-scale firm to an equivalent “Campbell Soup company of the wine industry”. Today, the company stands as a global wine producer. Its well-reputable brand name stems from its well-diversified product line, manufactured under various labels for a number of different price ranges to attract all types of consumers, and global recognition and awards. E. & J. Gallo was the first American company to date to be recognized three times as International Winery of the Year. In 2006, Gallo received the Gold and Best of Class awards at the San Francisco Wine Competition and won individual awards for its cabernet sauvignon and chardonnay. The possession of major competitive advantages that its competitors did not hold largely contributed to Gallo’s success in the wine industry. Some...
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...From the top to the bottom and back again--Some may hear this and think of a rollercoaster. Some may hear it and think of a yo-yo. But ask Martha Stewart and she'll say, "That was my life". Let's take a ride on the Martha Roller-Coaster. • 1976: Martha Stewart founds a catering company in Connecticut. • 1982: Stewart's first book, Entertaining, is published. • 1987: Kmart signs Stewart to a five-year consulting contract. • 1990: The first issue of Martha Stewart Living is published by Time Inc. • 1993: Stewart begins hosting a weekly television show, Martha Stewart Living. • 1995: Martha Stewart Living is voted "Magazine of the Year" by Ad Age; the Martha by Mail catalogue is launched. • 1997: Stewart buys the company bearing her name from Time Warner. • 1999: Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. goes public on the New York Stock Exchange. The initial public offering was one of the most successful ever and made her a billionaire. • 2001: Stewart avoided a loss of $45,673 by selling all 3,928 shares of her ImClone Systems stock • 2002: Martha Stewart resigned her position, held for four months, on the board of directors of the New York Stock Exchange, following a deal prosecutors made with Douglas Faneuil, assistant to Bacanovic • 2003: Stewart was indicted by the government on nine-counts including charges of securities fraud and obstruction of justice. Stewart voluntarily stepped down as CEO and Chairwoman of MSLO but stayed on as chief creative...
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...------------------------------------------------- Firm Analysis – E&J Gallo Winery Prepared for: Gianluigi Giustiziero Prepared by: Salem Najjar Date: 8 December 2011 ------------------------------------------------- Performance E.&J. Gallo is the world’s largest family owned wine maker, the largest U.S. wine maker by volume, and the largest U.S. exporter of wine. Gallo cultivates more than 3,000 acres in the Napa and Sanoma valleys in California. With over 60 brands including table, sparkling and dessert wines, malt beverages, and distilled products; production and distribution facilities throughout the world; and a strong international presence; E.&.J Gallo is third largest wine firm in the world, with a 3.8% market share (Global Wine Manufacturing, 32-36). Refer to chart below. Gallo is the largest wine supplier in the U.S., commanding 22.7% of the market. Also, in comparison with the financial metrics of other firms in the industry, Gallo’s profit over revenue stands at 17.09%, whereas the industry average is 7.6%. Gallo’s sales grew 7% in 2010 as a result of acquisitions and the ongoing success of its Millennial-targeted Barefoot Cellars (up 33.3%) and Twin Valley (10.3%) brands. Twin Valley is described as a “step above” boxed wine (Mintel, Wine-US). With its strong brand and competitive strategy, E.&J. Gallo Winery has been able to weather the economic recession fairly well, capturing over $3.2 billion in revenues last year (Global Wine...
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...Freemark Abbey Strategic Decision Making Problem Freemark Abbey has an invaluable reputation as a winery that produces high quality, premium wines from the best variety of grapes. The quality and brand built throughout the years is the cumulative result of making well thought out, informed decisions that have earned Freemark Abbey the respect and demand in the winemaking industry. Several considerations are given in producing a consistently high quality product. The seeds, soil, weather, maturation time of the grapes, timing of the harvest, fermentation time, acidity and sugar levels all play an important role in product delivery. Careful consideration must be given in order to uphold one of Freemark Abbey's greatest strengths, it's reputation. For this decision, we considered multiple points in the decision making process, considering the probability of rain, sugar and acidity levels, as well as the possibility of botrytis mold forming after a potential rainstorm. With reports of a rainstorm ahead with a 50% chance of it striking the winery, we constructed a decision tree and analysis to help guide the decision process and support the resulting recommendation. Initially, Mr. Jaeger is faced with two options; harvest the grapes immediately or wait for the storm to occur at a 50% probability. The options provide very different outcomes that will ultimately affect the winery's earnings and brand. If the grapes are harvested immediately, there is very list risk...
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...that would sell wholesale for only about $2.00 per bottle and costing Freemark Abbey Winery its reputation. It could sell the wine in bulk or sell the grapes directly to preserve its reputation but these options would bring only half as much revenue, which is the second decision problem. Hence, Freemark Abbey Winery might be better off harvesting immediately before the storm and eliminating the risk of the rain spoiling the grapes. The not-so-ripe grapes could yield wine that sells for $2.85 per bottle. If Jaeger decided to harvest later and the storm did not strike, there is a high chance that the acidity of the grapes would not fall below about 0.7 percent. In this case, the resulting wines would still sell at a higher price than wine produced from the not-so-ripe grapes harvested now, regardless of what the weather condition is like. However, there is a slight chance that the acidity of the of the grapes would drop below about 0.7, in which case the resulting wine would sell at a slightly lower price of $2.50 per bottle. To make this decision, a decision tree, Michael Porters (1997) five forces analysis, and SWOT analysis are used to aid in the decision making process. Both five forces analysis and SWOT analysis reveal that Freemark Abbey Winery should pursue a differentiation strategy. The bargaining power of customers for small wineries is lower than that for mid-size wineries. Small wineries in areas frequented by tourists can...
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...Decision Analysis DISC 321 Case 2 Group 3 Hafsa Siddique 17110055 Faisal Ali 17110282 Aleem ud din Khan 17110267 Hassaan Butt 17110117 We first divided the mess being analyzed into a clear, structured problem statement as follows Objective: To decide if Freemark Abbey Winery should harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or leave them on the vines despite the approaching storm. Assumptions: 1-We assumed that the list of possibilities provided is mutually exclusive as well as exhaustive. This means that either one has to occur, as well as no other possible option exists. 2-The payoffs are calculated based on 1000 cases of wine. 3-The given probabilities accurately reflect reality Analysis: At the moment Freemark Abbey Winery has two alternatives: to harvest or not to harvest. If they choose not to harvest there is 50% chance that storm might hit. And if the storm hits there is a probability of 40% that Botryis mold will form which will significantly affect the revenue. Freemark Abbey Winery faces another decision if the storm hits and Botryis mold will not form, because if Botryis mold will not form the sugar level which determines the quality of wine and revenue will be different, so the decision that they faces is that whether to sell the grapes in bulk or to make and sell the wine themselves. If the storm hits and mold is formed then the revenue will be 67,200 but the chance of this happening is only 40%. As compared to this there is a 60% chance that mold...
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...Arkansas State University | Freemark Abbey Winery | Team 1 | | Assignment | 11/28/2012 | | Case Summary Freemark Abbey Winery should make a decision whether to harvest or not, taking into consideration the possibility of rain. Rain may damage the crop but delaying the harvest would be risky too. Keeping in mind rain could be beneficial and will increase the value of the resulting wine. This decision is complicated by the fact that ripe Riesling grapes can be converted to wine in two ways, resulting in two different types of wine. Factors that should be taken into consideration Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, and reputation. Mr. Jaeger’s possible choices: Harvest now or later. Solution: The payoffs are calculated based on 1000 cases of wine. 1. There are two alternatives: * Waiting (W) for the storm to come. * Harvest (H) now. * If he waited, the storm may or may not hit. * If the storm hits, the mold may or may not form, which greatly affect the revenue. * If the storm hits and no mold form, the sugar level which determines the quality of the wine is uncertain. The quality of wine produced affects the company’s reputation. * If storm hits and mold do not form: Sell the grapes in bulk (B), or make the thin (light) wine and sell it (T). * The best decision: Where the expected value (EV) maximizes current returns. * The blue values represent selling the harvest in bulk (B)...
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