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From Superstorms to Factory Fires

In: Business and Management

Submitted By francolete
Words 538
Pages 3
Resumen textos logística

1) From superstorms to factory fires

La idea es manejar la interrupción de ciertos productos de la cadena de suministros.
Es útil saber la probabilidad de tener disrupción en cierta materia prima. Esto se puede saber con datos históricos.
Es distinto cuando hablamos de eventos con baja probabilidad y alto impacto, como huracán catrina. En estos casos e muy difícil manejar la probabilidad de que ocurran ya que casi no hay datos históricos.
Para esto se hace un modelo matemático que cuantifica la cadena de suministro y puede ser computarizada. Mide el impacto economico y operacional de que un abastecedor este ausente por un tiempo definido.
TTR: Time to recovery and the risk exposure index
El tiempo que tardaría un nodo en restaurarse luego de sufrir una disrupción. Este tiempo es calculado examinando datos históricos y entrevistando a las firmas.
Para realizar el análisis, el modelo remueve un nodo a la vez y ve el impacto que esto tiene. Para obtener el impacto busca el mejor escenario.
PI: performance impact, hay distintas medidas de PI, como ganancia, unidades perdidas,etc.
Luego viene el REI: que es risk exposure index, que mide lo riesgoso que es un cierto nodo. El nodo con PI mas grande, tiene el REI mas grande (1.0) y el menos un REI de 0.
El riesgo es medido según el mejor escenario, es decir considerando que se usarían materias primas suplementarias, etc.
Beneficios del enfoque:
• Identificar exposiciones ocultas: Tener un valor correcto del riesgo de exposición a falta de suministro.
• Evitar la necesidad de predecir eventos raros: No calcula la probabilidad, si no que el impacto
• Revela la dependencia de la cadena de suministros y cuello de botella. Puede identificar que suministro es necesario tener mas opciones
• Promueve discusión y aprendizaje: Se puede ver los nodos con más problemas y tratar de mejorarlo.

Acciones Previas que deben ser tomadas

Podemos categorizar abastecedores según dos categorías:
• Según la cantidad de dinero que una firma gasta en cada abastecedor por año
• El PI (impacto) que tiene la disrupción de cada nodo

Veamos las estrategias de riesgo para cada segmento:

Alto riesgo obvio
Proveedores que tienen alto riesgo y alto costo, son llamadas componentes estratégicas, Estrategias son incentivar a abastecedores a tener varios puntos de producción y crear planes estratégicos.

Bajo costo
No requiere invertir demasiado en reducir el riesgo. Muchas compañías tienen sobreinventario o contratos a largo plazo.

Riesgo oculto
Abastecedores muy riesgosos con alto impacto económico, pero para los cuales no se han tomado las medidas necesarias. Son normalmente piezas baratas, pero que sólo las fabrican unas pocas empresas, por ejemplo, válvulas de autos. Que de faltar, habría que cortar toda la línea de producción.

Caso de estudio: Compañía Ford Motor
Se vieron dos escenarios, en el primero el proveedor de materia es cortado por 2 semanas, en el segundo, el proveedor de herramientas debe ser reemplazado, alterando la operación por 8 semanas.
El 60% de los abastecedores de ford no tienen un efecto significativo, el 2% si, los cuales fueron una sorpresa.
Ejemplo, un abastecedor de resina tuvo una explosión en su fábrica, lo que afectó fuertemente a Ford. Desde eso tienen abastecedores por todo el mundo, reduciendo el riesgo.

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