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STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE

T.P. Bhat

November 2011

Institute for Studies in Industrial Development
New Delhi

A Study Prepared as a Part of a Research Programme

STRUCTURAL CHANGES, INDUSTRY AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE INDIAN ECONOMY Macro‐economic Implications of Emerging Pattern Sponsored by Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) New Delhi

Contents

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18.

Historical Backdrop Foreign Trade in 2nd and 3rd Plan Development of Complex Regime Episode of trade Liberalization Economic Growth and Policy Framework of Foreign Trade Foreign Trade Policy Reforms after 1991‐92 Service Sector and Reform Export‐Import Growth Scenario Commodity Composition of Export and Import Basket Factor Intensity Analysis of Exports Factor Intensity Analysis of Imports Structural Weakness of India’s Foreign Trade Stability of India’s Comparative Advantage Rise of Service Sector Exports Relationship Between Economic Growth and Export Growth Relationship Between Trade and Employment Can India Skip Industrialization Phase? Conclusions

List of Tables 1 2 3 4 5 Indicators of Long‐Term Indian Economic Performance, 1950‐2010 (Average annual growth) India’s Exports, Export Growth and Share in GDP Trade and Capital Account Balances (Million $) Evolution of India’s Trade Balances (Rs. Crores) SEZ Exports and India’s total Exports: A Comparison

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6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Exports, Imports, Trade Balance and Growth Rates for 1950‐51 to 1969‐70 (value in million US$ & percentages) Exports and Imports in 1970s and 1980s (Exports and Imports in million $ & growth in %) Export, Import and Balance Payments from 1990‐91 to…...

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