...| INDIA AND SUBPRIME CRISIS | | INDIA AND SUB-PRIME CRISIS Sub-prime, as the word suggests, is something that is not prime. In the Sub-prime crisis context it simply means lending money to Sub-prime borrowers i.e. lending to people with low or poor credit worthiness. Sub-prime crisis was caused because the lending norms in the USA were very lax. It is joked about in the academic circles that any man who was not on a respirator was given a loan without any regard to his or her creditworthiness. This was brought about by the “Spend yourself out of the post dot com bust recession” policy of the American government at that time. The end result of the Sub-prime crisis is manifesting itself in myriad ways. There are direct and indirect implications not only for the United States but for the entire world. The Sub-prime that was brought upon by the American financial system upon itself is spreading its tentacles around the world. People who were not even remotely connected with the Sub-prime crisis are being adversely affected. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official agency in charge of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession. They define recession as: “significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, which is normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”. BUSINESS CYCLE The term business cycle (or economic cycle)...
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...Project Report On Impact of Recession in India Submitted to: Submitted by: Mrs. Kawaljeet Kaur Harsimranjeet Kaur Regd: 625241502 In the partial fulfillment of the requirement for the BBA degree course of the Swami Satyanand College of Management & Technology. INDEX Introduction to recession Definition of recession Attributes of recession Causes & Effects of recession Stock Market & Recession Recession & Politics History of Recession Current crisis in the US Impact of recession in India Consequences of US Recession Conclusion Bibliography Acknowledgement If words are considered to be sign of gratitude then let these words convey the very same. I am highly indebted to lecturer Miss. Shveta, who has provide me with the necessary information and also for the support and her valuable suggestions and comments on bringing out this report in the best way possible. I feel great pleasure to cordial thanks to all faculty members of management department of SSCMT who sincerely supported me with the valuable insights into the completion of this project and I am thankful to that power that always inspire me to take right step in the journey of success...
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...recession India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate. Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08) Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997). Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to begin...
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...Project Report on US Recession and its Impact on Indian Economy Submitted to Prof. V.P.Singh Submitted By Sona Nair 38 Shrenik Shah 54 MansiKinjawdekar 32 ParleTilakVidyalaya’s Institute of Management Dixit Road, VileParle East,Mumbai-400057 Index Sr.no Table of Contents Page no 1. Introduction 2. Factors affecting Recession 3. Impact on Indian Economy 4. Corrective Steps taken to check Recession 5. Case Study- 6. Conclusion 7. Executive Summary 8. Bibliography INTRODUCTION What is Recession? A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The official agency in charge of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). They define recession as a “A period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” This is normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For this reason, the official designation of recession may not come until after we are in a recession for six months or even longer. Some economists also suggest that a recession occurs when the natural growth rate in GDP is less than the average of 2%. Typically, a normal economic recession lasts for approximately 1 year. The newspapers in America often quote theThumbRulethat...
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...Term Project ON Euro Crisis: Origin, consequences and impact on world and Indian economy Submitted By: Ajay Sharma 2011SMF6623 Nitesh Goyal 2011SMF66 Sajal Agarwal 2011SMF66 Contents Description | Page No. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Impact on India | | Impact of FDI in India | | Snapshot of impact on India | | Conclusion | | References | | Impact on India Though India is primarily a domestic economy, India’s exports are positively linked to the global economic growth. This is likely to adversely impact India’s export growth in the coming months. However, growth will be only marginally affected by the slowdown in the euro region debt stricken countries as our exposure is low. Software services and other export oriented sectors would benefit from the rupee depreciation. FDI has not been significantly affected by the crisis while the FIIs are showing outflow in the last couple of months. International commodity price moderation is not being translated in domestic prices. Inflationary Concerns: Further, exchange rate depreciation would worsen the inflationary conditions in the economy. Therefore, the RBI would have to continue with its anti-inflationary stance in the near term if domestic conditions do not improve Source: World Bank, Ministry of Commerce, Government of India Interpretation of Graph - Graph 1 show that the share of the euro zone exports...
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...EUROZONE CRISIS ABSTRACT Euro crisis was not fortunate. It was something that could be avoided if proper care was taken. The European sovereign debt crisis has emerged out of a situation that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third party. It was not only the government sector that lead to this crisis but major cause of it was the private sectors taking up too much of loans. The report also states the impact of euro zone crisis on the world and the India. The Eurozone crisis is systemic in nature. It is a result of policy failures in the way European Monetary Union (EMU) was designed, constructed and implemented. In particular, the crisis is a consequence of the failure to put in place certain necessary institutional components. INTRODUCTION The global economy has experienced slow growth since the U.S. financial crisis of 2008-2009, which has exposed the unsustainable fiscal policies of countries in Europe and around the globe. Greece, which spent heartily for years and failed to undertake fiscal reforms, was one of the first to feel the pinch of weaker growth. When growth slows, so do tax revenues – making high budget deficits unsustainable. The result was that the new Prime Minister George Papandreou, in late 2009, was forced to announce that previous governments had failed to reveal the size of the nation’s deficits. In truth, Greece’s debts were so large that they actually...
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...TRENDS IN NATIONAL INCOME SINCE 1950/51: The National income of India has shown progressive growth since 1950 till 2012 except during a few periods of decline in performance. Growth rate during the 1950’s averaged to around 3.5% until a deceleration during the period post 1965. The next decline in economic performance was due to oil shocks and currency devaluation prior to New Economic Policy of 1991. Apart from this the economic performance was affected by crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis and the global financial crisis of 2008. During the period of 1965-66, the economic performance deteriorated and there was a huge trade deficit. Subsequently there was currency devaluation to the extent of 56.75%. This was due to reasons like the war with Pakistan and China and the drought that hit the country. The first oil shock in 1973 resulted in a decline in economic performance but was absorbed by buoyant exports. The second oil shock of 1979 was more severe and the government has to resort to heavy borrowing. This was further aggravated by the Gulf war in 1990-91. Despite the recovery in 2009-2010 and 2010-11, the economic performance on the country deteriorated in 2011-12 due to adverse external environmental factors and low domestic investment. In addition to observing the trend in national income, it is also necessary to look at the structural shift of the economy over the years. The Indian economy has shifted from an agrarian economy with a decline from 57% in 1950-51...
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...Impact of Global financial crisis On Pakistan By: Nauman Ayubi Butt Roll # 8511 Table of contents 1) Reason of choosing this topic 2) Introduction 3) The term ‘Financial Crises’ 4) Financial Crisis 2007-2009 5) Causes of the crisis 6) The crisis getting global 7) The Financial crisis and Pakistan: 8) Sectoral impact of the crisis in Pakistan: 9) External sector impact i) Exports ii) Imports 10) Financial Sector impact on i) Foreign exchange ii) Banking sector iii) Circular debt iv) Stock market: 11) Inflation 12) Economic business sector impact i) Impact on textile industry 13) Social Sector Impacts 14) Poverty and unemployment: 15) IMF 16) Technique to tackle the situation Reason for choosing this topic: The reason for choosing this topic is that it has a direct relationship with the poverty, unemployment, literacy, wealth distribution and also with the increased level of terrorism in Pakistan. Introduction: Capitalism is an economic system in which land labor production pricing and distribution are all determined by the market. There is a strong history of capitalism that it can shift from extended period of rapid growth to very short periods of contraction The global financial crisis in 2008-09 which are still on the go, they actually started from the 20th century and they have been increasing since then. In the end of 20th century the U.S housing prices after a multiyear started declining, the mortgage prices had been at...
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...A Study of Impact of RBI policy rates on inflation *Prof. Pallavi Ingale Introduction The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the Indian central bank. The RBI’s most important goal is to maintain monetary stability - moderate and stable inflation in India. The RBI uses monetary policy to maintain price stability and an adequate flow of credit. Rates which the Indian central bank uses for this are the bank rate, repo rate, reverse repo rate and the cash reserve ratio. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised repo and reverse repo rates 13 times in previous year. RBI also deregulated savings bank deposit rate with immediate effect. This step was taken to arrest rising inflation in Asia's third largest economy. But this RBI's decision to hike short-term lending and borrowing rates could lead to higher interest rates and impact the growth momentum of the economy. An Indian company has postponed expansion plans and review future profitability projections after the Reserve Bank of India raised key interest rates. The central bank also revised the GDP growth rate for FY11-12 to 7.6% from the earlier 8%, while the projection of WPI inflation has been kept unchanged at 7% for March 2012. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) The Reserve Bank of India was inaugurated as on April 1 1935. Originally, the Reserve Bank was constituted as a shareholders’ bank based on the model leading foreign central banks on that time. The bank ‘s fully paid share capital was Rs. 5 Crores divided into shares of Rs. 100 each...
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...www.capitalvia.com Global Research Limited IMPACT of GREECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP UK 13% Greece 12.5% Spain 11.25% Ireland 54.3% 68.6% 112.6% 65.8% 10.75% 114.6% 5.3% Italy Germany 3.5% 74.3% Source:...
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...Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis G lobal Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP 68.6% UK 13% 112.6% Greece 12.5% 54.3% Spain 11.25% 65.8% Ireland 10.75% 114.6% Italy 5.3% 74.3% Germany 3.5% Source: European Commission / Economic forecast...
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...Chapter -1 INTRODUCTION 1211536, 1211543 | A study on Indian Economy – Past , Present, Future 1 Introduction to area of study India has come a long way in terms of economic growth. There is broad consensus that the global centre of economic growth is moving to Asia, and as a large emerging nation with a growing middle class, India has captured the attention of developed economies looking for new investment and trade opportunities. The Softer indicators of economy – aspirations, health, and literacy – are all registering discernible improvements. Over two decades, India has implemented wide-ranging reforms that opened up the economy, dismantled the old licensing system and introduced competition into a number of sectors that had previously been dominated by public monopolies. Now, we live in a generation of relative abundance. While for the Western world it is going to be a demographic winter, we in India with some effort should be reaping a demo- graphic dividend. It is an India full of goodies –better consumption and lifestyle are in attendance all around. From the past two decades, we saw the twists in its growth and also twist in political atmosphere. With 27 per cent of the economy stagnant, it is no surprise that overall growth in India has slipped below 6 per cent. We are referring to the industrial sector, which has recorded an insipid 0.4 per cent growth in the first five months of this fiscal year beginning April 2013. It needs no emphasis that without a turnaround...
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...State of the Economy and Prospects CHAPTER 1 While India's recent slowdown is partly rooted in external causes, domestic causes are also important. The strong post-financial-crisis stimulus led to stronger growth in 2009-10 and 2010-11. However, the boost to consumption, coupled with supplyside constraints, led to higher inflation. Monetary policy was tightened, even as external headwinds to growth increased. The consequent slowdown, especially in 2012-13, has been across the board, with no sector of the economy unaffected. Falling savings without a commensurate fall in aggregate investment have led to a widening current account deficit (CAD). Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation has been coming down in recent months. However, food inflation, after a brief slowdown, continues to be higher than overall inflation. Given the higher weightage to food in consumer price indices (CPI), CPI inflation has remained close to double digits. Another consequence of the slowdown has been lower-than-targeted tax and non-tax revenues. With the subsidies bill, particularly that of petroleum products, increasing, the danger that fiscal targets would be breached substantially became very real in the current year. The situation warranted urgent steps to reduce government spending so as to contain inflation. Also required were steps to facilitate corporate and infrastructure investment so as to ease supply. Several measures announced in recent months are aimed at restoring the fiscal health...
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...Current Financial Crisis: a review of some of the consequences, policy actions and recent trends1 By Sameer Khatiwada and Emily McGirr, International Institute for Labour Studies2 What is happening? On the heels of the near bankruptcy of a major insurance company and the effective end of all major US investment banks, financial markets around the world sustained severe losses in the first two weeks of October, 2008, accelerating the downward trend that started at the beginning of the year. As a consequence, from New York to Moscow, and London to Sao Paulo, equity prices have fallen sharply – with the major stock indices of the G7 and BRICs losing nearly half of their value since the beginning of the year. This has seriously damaged banks’ balance sheets and restricted their lending capacity. With the cost of short-term credit rising dramatically and liquidity drying up, these events have been dubbed the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression in 1930s. More importantly, the shock waves from the US financial market have spread throughout the globe, with many countries on the brink of recession (see Figure 1, Appendix). How did a “house fire” in America turn into a global banking crisis? Sub-prime mortgages are a financial innovation designed to provide home ownership opportunities to borrowers in the U.S. with a higher risk profile (such as borrowers with low incomes, bad credit histories or limited disposable income). Most of the sub-prime ...
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...FICCI Economic Outlook Survey July 2011 FICCI, Federation House, 1, Tansen Marg, New Delhi FICCI Economic Outlook Survey – July 2011 About the Survey The seventh round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted during the period 7th July and 19th July, 2011. As part of the survey, a structured questionnaire was drawn up and sent to economists and financial analysts with a view to gauge their perception and views on topical economic issues as well as to seek their outlook for key macro-economic variables. A total of 13 economists and financial analysts participated in the present survey. These economists and financial analysts largely come from the banking and financial sector. The sample also includes economists and financial analysts from industry and research institutions. The survey participants were asked to provide their forecast for key macro economic variables for the year 2011-12 as well as for Quarter 1 (Apr-June) and Quarter 2 (July-Sep) of 2011-12. In addition to these, views were sought on two topical issues – whether RBI should be prepared to deal with the possibility of another global slowdown and the expected stance of RBI in the forthcoming monetary policy review on July 26th, 2011. The feedback received from the survey participants was aggregated and analyzed. The results obtained are presented in the following pages. The findings of the survey represent the views of respondents and do not reflect the views of FICCI. 2|P a g e FICCI Economic...
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