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Global Financial Crisis 2007-2008 Impact on India

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Submitted By rabinajit
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:-Done by Sunil Kumar and Ajeet verma

Indian economy before us recession
India had been growing robustly at an annual average rate of 8.8 per cent for the past five years (2003-04 to 2007-08). This was higher than the potential growth rate of output as estimated by the IMF. The strong Indian growth story, based on its structural strengths of a young population, skilled manpower, rising savings and investment rates, large unfulfilled domestic demand and globally competitive firms attracted significant investor attention in recent years. Recent high rates of economic growth have been the result of high levels of investment, rise in productivity supported by technological up-gradation and greater integration with global flows of trade, finance and technology. The challenge is to sustain these high growth rates while also preventing an unacceptable rise in income and spatial inequities and also eliminating absolute poverty in a given time frame. The answer to this challenge is in raising India’s potential rate of output growth by removing the binding constraints. We have also estimated the potential growth rate for India during the last decade based on HP filter technique (Hodrick and Prescott, 1997) and found that in the last three years, India had been growing above its potential growth rate.
Figure 6: Potential GDP Growth and Output Gap (1997-08 to 2007-08)

Note: Based on HP filter technique as proposed by Hodrick and Prescott (1997).

Fears of over-heating of the economy prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to begin monetary tightening as early as September 2004 when the cash-reserve ratio(CRR) for commercial banks was raised. The sharp increase in global fuel and food prices in the first quarter of 2008 aggravated inflationary concerns and resulted in further monetary tightening that saw interest rates being hiked until
August

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