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Gold a Unique Commodity

In: Business and Management

Submitted By Dvy38330
Words 1981
Pages 8
_________________________________________________
Ensayo 2: Los precios de oro:
¿Porque están desafiando la gravedad?
____________________________________________________________

____________

Los mercados mundiales parecen estar en una fiebre del oro ahora mismo. Excluyendo unas correcciones a corto plazo, los precios de oro han seguido subiendo de una manera ininterrumpida desde el principio de la década. Desde 265 dólares por onza en 2001, el oro se elevó durante la década, alcanzando 1900 dólares por nivel de onza en septiembre de 2011. El precio de la transacción "spot" de oro ya se ha levantado más del 25 por ciento este año con un pico de 1923.70 dólares por onza el 6 de septiembre. Por culpa de la deuda europea y de una economía americana inactiva los precios de oro conocieron una subida exponencial. En efecto, los inversionistas querían salvaguardar sus carteras contra la tensión inminente económica y política y este activo es el que tiene más confianza en tiempo de crisis.
Estadísticas del Consejo Mundial De oro indica que el oro subió durante el segundo cuarto por tanto como 26 por ciento a partir del mismo período hace un año. En realidad, la demanda del oro disminuyó interanualmente del 17 por ciento en términos de volumen y aumentó simplemente el 5 por ciento en términos de valor durante el cuarto. El suministro, de otra parte, permaneció más o menos inalterado. Esta anomalía de demanda que se disminuye y el precio creciente hace que muchos economistas plantéense cuestiones.

Los recientes acontecimientos han intensificado la creencia que el oro podría estar en una burbuja especulativa. ¿La pregunta es cuánto tiempo el oro puede seguir desafiando las leyes de gravedad y economía?

Precio histórico del oro (10 años)

La comprensión de las idiosincrasias del metal amarillo puede deshacerse la luz sobre esta materia particular. En efecto, el oro no se parece a otras materias primas. Tiene poco empleo en la industria y así se mueve más o menos independientemente de los ciclos de negocio. A diferencia de materias primas agrícolas, el oro no es propenso a interrupciones de suministro relacionadas con el tiempo tampoco. De hecho, la maleabilidad y la longevidad del metal amarillo aseguran que el suministro nunca se cae. Sólo es difundido de nuevo o complementado por la minería adicional. El oro sobre todo es favorecido para sus propiedades de almacenaje, su longevidad prestándolo un estado casi equivalente a un activo financiero.

La única diferencia es que el metal amarillo no tiene ningún rendimiento; esto no produce un flujo de caja regular y de ahí, es difícil poner un precio con exactitud. Esto lo hace una inversión menos interesante en comparación a acciones ordinarias y obligaciones. Sus únicas propiedades, sin embargo, lo hace una tienda de valor y así, un hedge útil frente la inflación y la depreciación monetaria. Los inversionistas dan vuelta al oro en los tiempos de inestabilidad financiera y política ya que esto no tiene ningún riesgo de default.
La inversión en el oro históricamente ha sido asociada con temor sobre la inflación creciente y durante los tiempos de confusión política. Un estudio reciente de Oxford Economics proporciona una perspectiva significativa sobre esta cuestión:
A largo plazo el oro tiende a sostener su valor en verdaderos términos, pero los factores de cíclicos pueden alejar el oro de su equilibrio de largo plazo durante períodos ampliados. Estos factores incluyen: * la tensión financiera, * la confusión política, * tasas de interés, * inflación, * la actividad del banco central * el tipo de cambio del dólar estadounidense.
Así, el oro interpreta un papel de tienda de seguro durante los periodos inflacionistas como deflacionistas, ofreciendo un hedge frente acontecimientos extremos como los actuales.

Los usos del oro
Oro como un activo monetario: A pesar del desmontaje del “gold standard” en 1971 y del sistema de “Bretton Woods” de tipos de cambio fijos, los bancos centrales a través del mundo han seguido usando las cantidades grandes de oro como un activo de reserva. Según el informe de agosto de 2011 del Consejo Mundial De oro, los bancos centrales sostuvieron casi el 16 por ciento del suministro mundial de oro. Desde bancos centrales, gobiernos, y organizaciones internacionales son los titulares individuales más grandes de oro hoy. Por eso, sus actividades tienen un impacto significativo sobre el precio de oro.
La década pasada ha visto un cambio estructural en la dinámica de la demanda y del suministro. En efecto, los países avanzados redujeron sus ventas mientras las economías emergentes aumentaron radicalmente sus reservas. De hecho, por primera vez desde 1988, los bancos centrales se hicieron los compradores netos de oro en 2010. El crecimiento del interés al oro ha causado un crecimiento importante en la demanda del metal, así haciendo subir los precios a lo largo de la década. La incertidumbre de la económica ha llevado muchos bancos centrales a comportarse como inversionistas privados en el refuerzo de sus reservas de oro, lo que intensificó la subida del metal.

Reservas de oro per cápita

Oro como un activo financiero: Históricamente, los inversionistas han estado interesados en la adquisición de oro físico, incluyendo monedas y barras. Sin embargo, el metal también ha ganado la prominencia en el mercado de futuro de materias primas como un activo comerciable. Últimamente, varios exchange traded funds (ETFs) y productos relacionados han hecho el oro más accesible a una población más amplia de inversionistas lo que añadió a la volatilidad del metal. Desde la introducción del “SPDR Gold Trust” – el ETF más grande apoyado por el oro - en noviembre de 2004, los precios se multiplicaron por 3. Además, como se amplió la popularidad de los ETF y de los productos relacionados, los inversionistas, en particular de India y China, ganarán más acceso al mercado del oro, y por consiguiente influyeron más en las variaciones de los precios.

Gold Price Performance

Oro como joyería: Más de la mitad de las reservas de oro mundiales son joyería. El Consejo Mundial De oro estima que India representa el 33 por ciento de la demanda de joyería mundial seguida por China con el 23 por ciento durante el año que se termina el junio de 2011. La compra de joyería de oro forma parte de la cultura india, sobre todo durante las bodas o festivales. El próximo festival de India y de la boda, en diciembre-octubre, aumentarán probablemente la demanda del oro. Los ingresos crecientes de casas e la inflación también acarrean la demanda de economías emergentes.

¿Cuánto tiempo esa carrera va a durar?
Los precios de oro ya comienzan a experimentar una corrección abrupta. El 26 de septiembre, el precio de oro bajo de más de 120 dólares una onza. El metal amarillo perdió casi el 20 por ciento de su valor entre el 6 de septiembre y el 26 de septiembre. Esta caída precipitada apareció como una reacción del mercado a un número de acontecimientos que ocurrieron a través el globo. La caída fue principalmente provocada por una subida en los requisitos de margen por el Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) el 23 de septiembre. Por la tercera vez desde agosto, el CME levantó los requisitos colaterales sobre el oro, lo que hace más caro abrir una posición sobre el oro para los traders. Asimismo, el Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) había anunciado antes un aumento de márgenes sobre el futuro de oro.
La recién aumentación de las ventas en oro también puede ser atribuida a los inversionistas que tuvieron que liquidar sus posiciones de oro para compensar pérdidas masivas sobre otros activos.
Sin embargo, esto no tomó mucho tiempo para acabarse; los precios de oro han reasumidos su subida. De hecho, tales oscilaciones a corto plazo son algo conocido por los expertos del oro. Por ejemplo, los precios de oro cayeron el 25 por ciento entre mayo y junio de 2006 y casi el 33 por ciento de marzo a noviembre de 2008 y se recuperaron a partir de entonces. Tales cíclicos son típicos durante los períodos de tensión extrema financiera.
Durante las semanas recientes hemos visto una frenesí de los traders de oro. Estas épocas de incertidumbre conducen los mercados financieros principalmente por el sentimiento humano más bien que la racionalidad. Los inversionistas por lo general tienen dos criterios principales de la inversión – el rendimiento y la seguridad. En este punto, la seguridad se ha convierto en la opción más elegida por eso los inversionistas a través del globo toman refugio en el metal precioso. Históricamente saben que el oro se mueve a la inversa al dólar estadounidense y los mercados de capital. Noticias malas para la economía son buenas noticias para el oro. Las oscilaciones extremas en los precios de oro que ocurren últimamente son una consecuencia directa de inversionistas que se precipitan al oro cuando todas las otras posibilidades decepcionan.
En esta crisis de confianza, el único activo que parece a prueba de recesión es el oro. Durante siglos, hogares y bancos centrales han sostenido en el oro para ayudarles durante las épocas difíciles. Cuando la gente pierde la fe en el sistema monetario, ellos dan vuelta al oro. Hoy, los destinos indecisos del euro y otras divisas mundiales han aumentado la importancia de oro como un medio alternativo de pago.

Lo que sube debe bajar finalmente,
Una perspectiva histórica ilustra que el oro sigue un ciclo inverso a la estabilidad económica. Por ejemplo, la crisis 2008 de subprime tenía un efecto de dominó sobre el resto de la economía, por culpa de las interconexiones que se desarollaron a través el mundo. Este efecto redujo el camino del crecimiento e incitó una fiebre del oro. La furia del oro, sin embargo, fue mantenida gracias a las ventas de oro por las instituciones grandes para pagar sus deudas. Mientras tanto, la carrera reciente es más abrupta y probablemente va a durar más tiempo debido a la aumentación de la complejidad actual. Al contrario a la crisis de subprime, los problemas de deudas de la Eurozona han permitido a los mercados de tomar un tiempo suficiente para medir la futura incertidumbre. La posible severidad de los resultados a venir ha levantado la ansiedad entre los inversionistas y ha causado reacciones mixtas.
La perspectiva oscura de la economía mundial sugiere que los precios altos de oro deben quedarse así, al menos un ratito. De hecho, muchos analistas creen que las ventas ha sacudido la fe de los inversionistas a corto plazo que han salido de los mercados. Yendo adelante, esperan que los precios de oro sean resucitados como la estación de compra de oro físico en India y China. Además, los Estados Unidos pueden proporcionar el estímulo hacia su economía inactiva en alguna forma.
Las características del oro lo excluyen del análisis fundamental que puede anticipar su subida y caída. El hecho que el valor intrínseco de la materia no puede ser medido con exactitud lo hace un desafío para determinar cuando la burbuja puede reventarse. Si se puede llamar una burbuja en absoluto. La historia incluso reciente no proporciona un ejemplo de una economía mundial ensimismado con tantos complejos económicos. Así que para concluir, cuánto tiempo esto tomará, sólo el tiempo puede contarlo.

World official gold holdings
International Financial Statistics, August 2011

Rank | Country | Tonnes | % of reserves | 1 | United States | 8,133.50 | 74.20% | 2 | Germany | 3,401.00 | 71.40% | 3 | IMF | 2,814.00 | | 4 | Italy | 2,451.80 | 71.20% | 5 | France | 2,435.40 | 66.20% | 6 | China | 1,054.10 | 1.60% | 7 | Switzerland | 1,040.10 | 17.80% | 8 | Russia | 836.7 | 7.70% | 9 | Japan | 765.2 | 3.30% | 10 | Netherlands | 612.5 | 58.90% | 11 | India | 557.7 | 8.70% | 12 | ECB | 502.1 | 31.30% | 13 | Taiwan | 423.6 | 5.00% | 14 | Portugal | 382.5 | 85.10% | 15 | Venezuela | 365.8 | 60.80% | 16 | Saudi Arabia | 322.9 | 3.30% | 17 | United Kingdom | 310.3 | 15.90% | 18 | Lebanon | 286.8 | 29.60% | 19 | Spain | 281.6 | 40.20% | 20 | Austria | 280 | 54.70% |

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... 2, (2011): 145-165 STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP AMONG GOLD PRICE, OIL PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK MARKET RETURNS K. S. Sujit1 and B. Rajesh Kumar2 Abstract: The dynamic and complex relationship among economic variables has attracted the researchers, policy makers and business people alike. This study is an attempt to test the dynamic relationship among gold price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodically. This study takes daily data from 2nd January 1998 to 5th June 2011, constituting 3485 observations. Using techniques of time series the study tried to capture dynamic and stable relationship among these variables using vector autoregressive and cointegration technique. The results show that exchange rate is highly affected by changes in other variables. However, stock market has fewer roles in affecting the exchange rate. In this study we tested two models and one model suggests that there is weak long term relationship among variables. JEL classification: C22; E3; Keywords: Unit root tests; granger causality test, Cointegration; Vector auto regression (VAR) INTRODUCTION Gold was one of the first metals humans excavated. Gold as an asset has a hybrid nature: it is a commodity used in many industries but also it has maintained throughout history a unique function as a means of exchange and a store of value, which...

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