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Good Education Is Needed for a Successful Career

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186

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

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Ïðîáëåìà âíåøíåãî äîëãà è ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 80-ûå ãîäû
Øïðèíãåëü Â.Ê.
Öåëüþ äàííîé ðàáîòû ÿâëÿåòñÿ èññëåäîâàíèå ðîëè âíåøíåãî äîëãà â ãåíåðàöèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà â ñòðàíàõ Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 80-ûå ãîäû. Îñîáîå âíèìàíèå óäåëåíî çàâèñèìîñòè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ñòðàí ðåãèîíà è âîçäåéñòâèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà íà íèõ îò îñîáåííîñòåé ñòðóêòóðû íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêè è ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà.  ñòàòüå ðàññìàòðèâàþòñÿ ïðîöåññû íàêîïëåíèÿ âíåøíåãî è âíóòðåííåãî äîëãà â ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà è èõ îáñëóæèâàíèÿ, à òàêæå ïóòè ôèíàíñîâîé è ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ñòàáèëèçàöèè â óñëîâèÿõ âûñîêîãî âíåøíåãî äîëãà.

Ââåäåíèå
 80-ûå ãîäû ñòðàíû Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ïåðåæèëè ïåðèîä æåñòî÷àéøåãî ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà. Ñðåäíèé òåìï ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà â ðåãèîíå ñîêðàòèëñÿ ñ 6% â 70-ûå ãîäû äî 1,8% â 80-ûå ãîäû, çíà÷èòåëüíî âûðîñëè èíôëÿöèÿ è áåçðàáîòèöà. Ïðîèçîøëî ðåçêîå ñîêðàùåíèå ïðèòîêà èíîñòðàííûõ èíâåñòèöèé, à ìíîãèå ñòðàíû áûëè âûíóæäåíû íà âðåìÿ îòêàçàòüñÿ îò îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà. Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî â ïðåäøåñòâóþùèå êðèçèñó ãîäû ñòðàíû Ëàòèíñêîé
Àìåðèêè áûëè îäíèìè èç îñíîâíûõ çàåìùèêîâ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà (ñòðàíû ðåãèîíà â 70-ûå ïðèâëåêàëè ñ ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ðûíêà êàïèòàëà â ñðåäíåì îêîëî 26 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ ÑØÀ â ãîä). Â èòîãå, òîëüêî çà ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ã. ïî 1983 ã. îáùèé âíåøíèé äîëã ñòðàí ðåãèîíà âûðîñ ñ 73 äî 325 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ
ÑØÀ. Áîëüøàÿ ÷àñòü âíåøíåãî äîëãà áûëà ïðåäñòàâëåíà êðàòêîñðî÷íîé çàäîëæåííîñòüþ ñ ïëàâàþùåé ñòàâêîé, ïðè÷åì ïðèìåðíî 80% äîëãà ïðèõîäèëîñü íà äîëþ ãîñóäàðñòâà.  òîò ïåðèîä ó ñòðàí ðåãèîíà íå âîçíèêàëî îñîáûõ ïðîáëåì ñ îáñëóæèâàíèåì âíåøíåãî äîëãà: áëàãîïðèÿòíàÿ ñèòóàöèÿ íà òîâàðíûõ ðûíêàõ, ìàññèðîâàííûå èíîñòðàííûå èíâåñòèöèè, à òàêæå ëüãîòíûå óñëîâèÿ êðåäèòîâàíèÿ ïîçâîëÿëè áåç îñîáîãî òðóäà îñóùåñòâëÿòü âûïëàòû ïðîöåíòîâ è ïðèíöèïàëà.
Çíà÷èòåëüíûé ïðèòîê ñðåäñòâ èç-çà ðóáåæà òàêæå ïîçâîëÿë ôèíàíñèðîâàòü áîëüøîé äåôèöèò áþäæåòà è çíà÷èòåëüíûé èìïîðò òîâàðîâ è óñëóã.
Ñèòóàöèÿ ðåçêî èçìåíèëàñü â íà÷àëå 80-ûõ ãîäîâ. Æåñòêàÿ äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíàÿ ïîëèòèêà è áþäæåòíàÿ ýêñïàíñèÿ, ïðîâîäèâøàÿñÿ ðÿäîì ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí
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Øïðèíãåëü Â.Ê. - àñïèðàíò ÃÓ-ÂØÝ, ñîòðóäíèê îòäåëà àíàëèçà áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû Äåïàðòàìåíòà ïðóäåíöèàëüíîãî áàíêîâñêîãî íàäçîðà Öåíòðàëüíîãî Áàíêà Ðîññèéñêîé Ôåäåðàöèè.

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(ýòî â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü êàñàåòñÿ ÑØÀ è Âåëèêîáðèòàíèè [12, 16, 17, 23, 24]), ïðèâåëè ê ðîñòó ðåàëüíûõ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è ñíèæåíèþ òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà â íèõ. Ðåöåññèÿ â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü âûçâàëà ñíèæåíèå ñïðîñà íà òðàäèöèîííûå òîâàðû ýêñïîðòà ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí [9], à óâåëè÷åíèå ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê çíà÷èòåëüíî óõóäøèëî óñëîâèÿ ðåôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà è ôàêòè÷åñêè çàêðûëî ìåæäóíàðîäíûé ðûíîê êàïèòàëà.
Êàê èçâåñòíî, íåãàòèâíûé øîê íà òîâàðíûõ ðûíêàõ âîçäåéñòâóåò íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ ñèñòåìó ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî ÷åðåç ýêñïîðò íà ñîâîêóïíûé ñïðîñ. Äðóãèì åãî ñëåäñòâèåì ÿâëÿåòñÿ óìåíüøåíèå âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé, ÷òî óñëîæíÿåò äëÿ ãîñóäàðñòâà îáñëóæèâàíèå âíåøíèõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ. Ñóùåñòâóåò òàêæå î÷åâèäíàÿ âçàèìîñâÿçü ìåæäó ýêîíîìè÷åñêèì êðèçèñîì è øîêîì íà ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêàõ: ðîñò ðàñõîäîâ ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ âíåøíåãî äîëãà âåäåò ê óâåëè÷åíèþ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà, ÷òî ïðè óñëîâèè íåäîñòàòî÷íîé ðàçâèòîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è íàëîãîâîé ñèñòåìû ìîæåò âûçâàòü íåîáõîäèìîñòü èñïîëüçîâàòü ñåíüîðàæ äëÿ ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ ðàçðûâà ìåæäó ãîñóäàðñòâåííûìè äîõîäàìè è ðàñõîäàìè.
Ðåçóëüòàòîì óâåëè÷åíèÿ òåìïîâ äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíîé ýêñïàíñèè ñòàíîâèòñÿ ðîñò óðîâíÿ èíôëÿöèè. Òàêæå íåîáõîäèìîñòü îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà çàñòàâëÿåò ñòðàíû-äîëæíèêè óâåëè÷èâàòü îáúåìû ýêñïîðòà è ñîêðàùàòü èìïîðò.
Ïîäîáíûå ñîîáðàæåíèÿ ÿâèëèñü îñíîâîé äëÿ ïîïóëÿðíîé ãèïîòåçû “äàâëåíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà” (debt-overhang hypothesis) [15, 21], îáúÿñíÿþùåé ñíèæåíèå òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà â ñòðàíàõ-äîëæíèêàõ óâåëè÷åíèåì ñòîèìîñòè îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà.  ÷àñòíîñòè, Ñàêñ îòìå÷àë, ÷òî ïåðåâîä ðåñóðñîâ â ïîëüçó êðåäèòîðîâ äåñòèìóëèðóåò èíâåñòèöèè è ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ðîñò â ñòðàíàõäîëæíèêàõ ïîòîìó, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü îòäà÷è îò èíâåñòèöèé óõîäèò â âèäå âûïëàò êðåäèòîðàì [21].
Ñóùåñòâóåò è äðóãîé âçãëÿä íà ïðîáëåìó âçàèìîñâÿçè ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ êðèçèñîâ è ðîñòà ñòîèìîñòè îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà. Êàê ïîêàçûâàåò èññëåäîâàíèå ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèõ ìàòåðèàëîâ, çíà÷èòåëüíûé âíåøíèé äîëã è çàâèñèìîñòü âàëþòíûõ äîõîäîâ îò öåí íà ðûíêàõ ñûðüÿ áûëè õàðàêòåðíû â 70-80-ûå ãîäû ïðàêòè÷åñêè äëÿ âñåõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí. Íî åñëè Ëàòèíñêàÿ Àìåðèêà è Àôðèêà ïåðåæèëè â 80-ûå ãîäû îñòðåéøèå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå êðèçèñû, òî ñòðàíû ÞãîÂîñòî÷íîé Àçèè, íåñìîòðÿ íà çíà÷èòåëüíûé âíåøíèé äîëã (îêîëî 140 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ ÑØÀ), ïðîäîëæàëè â òîò ïåðèîä óñïåøíî ðàçâèâàòüñÿ è ïðèâëåêàòü äåñÿòêè ìèëëèàðäîâ äîëëàðîâ èíîñòðàííûõ èíâåñòèöèé â ãîä. Ê òîìó æå è â ñàìîé
Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêå íàøëèñü ñòðàíû, îòíîñèòåëüíî áåçáîëåçíåííî ïåðåæèâøèå äàííûé ïåðèîä (×èëè, Âåíåñóýëà, ðÿä ñòðàí Êàðèáñêîãî áàññåéíà).
Ñðàâíåíèå ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ðàçëè÷íûõ ñòðàí ïîçâîëèëî íåêîòîðûì èññëåäîâàòåëÿì [2, 3, 13] ñäåëàòü âûâîä, ÷òî ïåðåâîä ðåñóðñîâ çà ãðàíèöó íå ìîã áûòü äîìèíèðóþùèì ôàêòîðîì ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ñïàäà.  ñëó÷àå, åñëè ñòðàíûäîëæíèêè ñíèçèëè áû ïîòðåáëåíèå, à óðîâåíü èíâåñòèöèé ñîõðàíèëè íåèçìåííûì, òî òåìïû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà îñòàëèñü áû äîñòàòî÷íî âûñîêèìè. Ïî ìíåíèþ Êàìèíñêè è Ïåðåéðû [13], ïðè÷èíîé íåñïîñîáíîñòè ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí, â îòëè÷èå îò ñòðàí Þãî-Âîñòî÷íîé Àçèè, ñëåäîâàòü îïòèìàëüíîìó ïóòè ðàçâèòèÿ ñòàëè ñîöèàëüíîå íåðàâåíñòâî è ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ è ñîöèàëüíàÿ íåñòàáèëüíîñòü.  ïðåäñòàâëåííîé ðàáîòå îñîáîå âíèìàíèå óäåëåíî ñòðóêòóðíûì ôàêòîðàì êðèçèñà.  ñòàòüå ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ äâà âîïðîñà. Ïåðâûé - â êàêîé ñòåïåíè ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ñïàä è ïîñëåäóþùåå ïðåîäîëåíèå êðèçèñà çàâèñåëî îò óñëîâèé íà

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ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà. Âòîðîé - êàê ñòðóêòóðíûå îñîáåííîñòè ýêîíîìèê è ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ ñòðàí ðåãèîíà ïîâëèÿëè íà èõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå.
 êà÷åñòâå îñíîâíîãî îáúåêòà èññëåäîâàíèÿ áûëè âûáðàíû 5 ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí: Àðãåíòèíà, Áîëèâèÿ, Áðàçèëèÿ, Âåíåñóýëà è ×èëè. Ýòè ñòðàíû ðàçëè÷àþòñÿ ñòåïåíüþ ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî êîíòðîëÿ íàä ýêñïîðò-îðèåíòèðîâàííûìè ñåêòîðàìè ýêîíîìèêè (â ×èëè, Áîëèâèè è Âåíåñóýëå îñíîâíûå ýêñïîðòíûå ñåêòîðà êîíòðîëèðóåò ãîñóäàðñòâî, à äëÿ Áðàçèëèè è Àðãåíòèíû õàðàêòåðåí êîíòðîëü íàä ýêñïîðòíûì ïðîèçâîäñòâîì ñî ñòîðîíû ÷àñòíîãî ñåêòîðà), óðîâíåì ðàçâèòèÿ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ (Áðàçèëèÿ, ×èëè è Àðãåíòèíà îáëàäàþò ðàçâèòûìè, ïî ìåðêàì ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí, íàöèîíàëüíûìè ôèíàíñîâûìè ðûíêàìè, à óðîâåíü ðàçâèòèÿ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ â Áîëèâèè è Âåíåñóýëå íåâûñîê) è èíôëÿöèîííîé äèíàìèêîé (â Áðàçèëèè è Àðãåíòèíå íàáëþäàëñÿ äëèòåëüíûé (áîëåå 15 ëåò) ïåðèîä “âûñîêîé” èíôëÿöèè, à äëÿ ×èëè è Âåíåñóýëû âûñîêèå òåìïû èíôëÿöèè áûëè õàðàêòåðíû òîëüêî â òå÷åíèå îòíîñèòåëüíî êîðîòêîãî ïåðèîäà âðåìåíè).
Ñòàòüÿ ïîñòðîåíà ñëåäóþùèì îáðàçîì.  ïåðâîì ðàçäåëå ðàññìàòðèâàþòñÿ ïðè÷èíû âûñîêîé çàâèñèìîñòè ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ îò øîêîâ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà.  íåì âûäåëåíû êàíàëû âîçäåéñòâèÿ äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå îòäåëüíîé ñòðàíû è ïîêàçàíû ðàçëè÷èÿ ñòðóêòóðû ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ ðàçâèòûõ è ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí. Òàêæå ïîêàçàíû ïðè÷èíû ïðèòîêà è îòòîêà êàïèòàëà ñ íàöèîíàëüíîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà. Âî âòîðîì ðàçäåëå ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå ñòðàí ðåãèîíà â 70-80-ûå ãîäû. Ðàçáèðàåòñÿ îòíîñèòåëüíàÿ ðîëü âíóòðåííèõ è âíåøíèõ ôàêòîðîâ â ãåíåðàöèè ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà â Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêå â 80-ûå ãîäû. Îòäåëüíî âûäåëåíà ðîëü âàëþòíîé ïîëèòèêè ñòðàí ðåãèîíà â ãåíåðàöèè êðèçèñà.
Ïîêàçàíî, ÷òî òÿæåñòü êðèçèñà çàâèñåëà âî ìíîãîì îò òîãî, êòî, ãîñóäàðñòâî èëè
÷àñòíûé ñåêòîð, ÿâëÿëñÿ îñíîâíûì çàåìùèêîì, è êîìó ïðèíàäëåæàëè îñíîâíûå ýêñïîðòíûå ñåêòîðà ýêîíîìèêè.
Çàêëþ÷èòåëüíûé ðàçäåë ïîñâÿùåí àíàëèçó ñòàáèëèçàöèîííûõ ïðîãðàìì, èñïîëüçîâàííûõ â ñòðàíàõ Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè äëÿ ïðåîäîëåíèÿ ïîñëåäñòâèé ôèíàíñîâîãî è ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà è âëèÿíèþ âíåøíèõ óñëîâèé íà óñïåøíîñòü ïðîâîäèìûõ ðåôîðì.

1. Âëèÿíèå ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî ðûíêà êàïèòàëà íà ýêîíîìèêó ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí
1.1. Îñîáåííîñòè ñòðóêòóðû ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí
Èçìåíåíèÿ íàïðàâëåíèÿ äâèæåíèÿ ôèíàíñîâûõ ïîòîêîâ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà ïîäîáíî øîêàì íà òîâàðíîì ðûíêå ìîãóò îêàçûâàòü çíà÷èòåëüíîå âîçäåéñòâèå íà âàëþòíûé êóðñ, à ÷åðåç íåãî íà ðàâíîâåñèå íà òîâàðíîì è ôèíàíñîâîì ðûíêàõ âíóòðè ñòðàíû. Øîêè íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà ðàññìàòðèâàëèñü êàê îñíîâíûå ïðè÷èíû ôèíàíñîâûõ êðèçèñîâ â Àðãåíòèíå â êîíöå 70-õ ãîäîâ [6, 7, 19] è â Ìåêñèêå â 1995 ã. [5, 22]. Øîê íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà ÿâëÿåòñÿ, ïî ìíåíèþ ìíîãèõ èññëåäîâàòåëåé [10, 14], è ïðè÷èíîé íûíåøíåãî “àçèàòñêîãî” ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà.
Ñëåäóåò âûäåëèòü íåñêîëüêî ñïîñîáîâ âîçäåéñòâèÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíîãî äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëîâ íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ ñèòóàöèþ âíóòðè ñòðàíû:

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

189

1) Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà ïîçâîëÿåò ñòðàíå ôèíàíñèðîâàòü äåôèöèò òîðãîâîãî áàëàíñà è ïîääåðæèâàòü âûñîêèé óðîâåíü ïîòðåáëåíèÿ è èíâåñòèöèé çà ñ÷åò èìïîðòà.
2) Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà óâåëè÷èâàåò îáúåì ñðåäñòâ, äîñòóïíûé äëÿ èíâåñòîðîâ, è ïîçâîëÿåò íàðàùèâàòü âåëè÷èíó âëîæåíèé â ðåàëüíûé ñåêòîð è òåì ñàìûì ïîâûøàåò ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ïîòåíöèàë äàííîé ñòðàíû.
3) Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà ìîæåò ïðèâåñòè ê èçìåíåíèþ îáìåííîãî êóðñà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû. Åñëè ãîñóäàðñòâî èñïîëüçóåò ïëàâàþùèé îáìåííûé êóðñ, òî ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà âåäåò ê óâåëè÷åíèþ ðåàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû
(îáðàòíàÿ êîòèðîâêà), è åãî âîçäåéñòâèå íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ ñèñòåìó îïîñðåäîâàíî, ïðåæäå âñåãî, ÷åðåç èçìåíåíèå ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà.
4) Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà óâåëè÷èâàåò çàâèñèìîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé ýêîíîìèêè îò âíåøíèõ øîêîâ. Î÷åíü ÷àñòî èíîñòðàííûå âëîæåíèÿ íà ðûíêàõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí íîñÿò ÿâíî ñïåêóëÿòèâíûé õàðàêòåð.  óñëîâèÿõ àñèììåòðèè èíôîðìàöèè îáóñëîâëåííûé âíåøíèìè ïðè÷èíàìè îòòîê êàïèòàëà èç îòäåëüíî âçÿòîé ñòðàíû ìîæåò ïðèâåñòè ê âîçíèêíîâåíèþ àíàëîãè÷íûõ ïðîöåññîâ â äðóãèõ ñòðàíàõ (ýôôåêò çàðàæåíèÿ (contagion effect)).
5) Ïðèòîê èíîñòðàííûõ ñðåäñòâ âûçûâàåò ðîñò äåíåæíîé ìàññû âíóòðè ñòðàíû, ÷òî ïðèâîäèò ê óâåëè÷åíèþ òåìïîâ èíôëÿöèè (ïîêóïêà öåíòðàëüíûì áàíêîì èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòû äëÿ ïîïîëíåíèÿ çîëîòî-âàëþòíûõ ðåçåðâîâ è ïðåäîòâðàùåíèÿ íåæåëàòåëüíîãî ðîñòà ðåàëüíîãî êóðñà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû ÿâëÿåòñÿ èñòî÷íèêîì ðîñòà äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ âíóòðè ñòðàíû). Ïîïûòêà ñìÿã÷èòü ìîíåòèçàöèþ ïóòåì ñòåðèëèçîâàííûõ èíòåðâåíöèé âåäåò ê ñîõðàíåíèþ ðàçíèöû ìåæäó âíóòðåííèìè è âíåøíèìè íîðìàìè ïðîöåíòà è ê ðîñòó ôèñêàëüíîé íàãðóçêè íà ýêîíîìèêó.
Âàæíåéøóþ ïåðåäàòî÷íóþ ðîëü â ðàñïðîñòðàíåíèè âíåøíèõ øîêîâ èãðàþò íàöèîíàëüíûå ôèíàíñîâûå ðûíêè. Cóùåñòâóþò çíà÷èòåëüíûå ðàçëè÷èÿ â ñòðóêòóðå ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ ðàçâèòûõ ïðîìûøëåííûõ ñòðàí è ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí. Äëÿ ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí õàðàêòåðíî ïðåîáëàäàíèå íà ðûíêå êîðïîðàòèâíûõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ. Ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå îáÿçàòåëüñòâà äëÿ áîëüøèíñòâà ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí ñîñòàâëÿþò ëèøü íåçíà÷èòåëüíóþ ÷àñòü îáùåé ðûíî÷íîé êàïèòàëèçàöèè, è èõ ýìèññèÿ íå ñëóæèò ïðåïÿòñòâèåì äëÿ ðàçìåùåíèÿ öåííûõ áóìàã ÷àñòíûì áèçíåñîì (îòñóòñòâèå ýôôåêòà çàìåùåíèÿ). Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà â òàêèõ óñëîâèÿõ âûçûâàåò ðîñò ÷àñòíûõ èíâåñòèöèé è â èòîãå ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ïîòåíöèàëà ñèñòåìû. Âûñîêàÿ ëèêâèäíîñòü è ïðîçðà÷íîñòü èíôîðìàöèè î ñîñòîÿíèè ôèðìû ñíèæàþò ïðåìèþ çà ðèñê è ñòîèìîñòü ïðèâëåêàåìûõ ñ ðûíêà ñðåäñòâ äëÿ êîðïîðàòèâíûõ çàåìùèêîâ.
Ñëåäóåò òàêæå îòìåòèòü, ÷òî â ñòðàíàõ ñ ðàçâèòîé ýêîíîìèêîé è ðàçâèòûì ôèíàíñîâûì ðûíêîì íîðìû ïðîöåíòà ïî êàçíà÷åéñêèì îáÿçàòåëüñòâàì è ñîîòíîøåíèå äåôèöèò áþäæåòà/ÂÂÏ îòíîñèòåëüíî íåâåëèêè è ïîýòîìó ãîñóäàðñòâî íå ñòàëêèâàåòñÿ ñî çíà÷èòåëüíûìè ïðîáëåìàìè ïðè îáñëóæèâàíèè äîëãà è íåîáõîäèìîñòüþ èñïîëüçîâàòü ñåíüîðàæ â êà÷åñòâå èíñòðóìåíòà ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ äåôèöèòà áþäæåòà è ñðåäñòâà ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé. Íàáëþäàåòñÿ íåçàâèñèìîñòü ìîíåòàðíîé è ôèñêàëüíîé ïîëèòèê. Âñëåäñòâèå ýòîãî, à òàêæå â ñèëó òîãî, ÷òî â áîëüøèíñòâå ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí èñïîëüçóåòñÿ ïëàâàþùèé âàëþòíûé êóðñ, íàáëþäàåòñÿ íåéòðàëüíûé èëè äàæå íåãàòèâíûé èíôëÿöèîííûé ýôôåêò ïðèòîêà êàïèòàëà.

190

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

¹2

Äëÿ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí õàðàêòåðíû ïðèíöèïèàëüíî èíûå, ÷åì â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ ñòðóêòóðà ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ è ñõåìà âçàèìîäåéñòâèÿ ôèñêàëüíîé è ìîíåòàðíîé ïîëèòèê (ïîäðîáíî ïðîáëåìà âçàèìîäåéñòâèÿ ôèñêàëüíîé è ìîíåòàðíîé ïîëèòèê â óñëîâèÿõ ðàçëè÷íûõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ñèñòåì ðàññìîòðåíà â ìîíîãðàôèè À.Ä.Ñìèðíîâà [1]). Åìêîñòü ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà â ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ îòíîñèòåëüíî íåâåëèêà ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ ïîòðåáíîñòÿìè ïðàâèòåëüñòâà â ôèíàíñèðîâàíèè áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà. Âûñîêèå ðèñêè âëîæåíèÿ è çíà÷èòåëüíûå îáúåìû ýìèññèè ïðèâîäÿò ê âûñîêîé ñòîèìîñòè ïðèâëå÷åíèÿ ñðåäñòâ äëÿ ãîñóäàðñòâà. Ýòî îáóñëàâëèâàåò íåîáõîäèìîñòü èñïîëüçîâàòü ñåíüîðàæ äëÿ ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ ðàçðûâà ìåæäó äîõîäàìè è ïëàíèðóåìûìè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûìè ðàñõîäàìè.
 èòîãå íåîáõîäèìîñòü ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ òåêóùèõ ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, âêëþ÷àÿ ðàñõîäû ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ ðàíåå íàêîïëåííîãî äîëãà, ñòàíîâèòñÿ âàæíåéøèì ìîòèâîì ôîðìèðîâàíèÿ äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ â ñòðàíå.
Íà óðîâåíü äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ âëèÿåò è ñòðóêòóðà âûïóñêàåìûõ ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ äîëãîâûõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ.  îòëè÷èå îò ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàí â ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ, âñëåäñòâèå íèçêîãî äîâåðèÿ ê ãîñóäàðñòâó (êàê äîëæíèêó), áîëüøèíñòâî ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ çàèìñòâîâàíèé ñêîíöåíòðèðîâàíî â ôîðìå êîðîòêèõ îáëèãàöèé (ñî ñðîêîì ïîãàøåíèÿ äî 1 ãîäà), ÷òî âåäåò ê ìîíåòèçàöèè äîëãà.
Òàêèì îáðàçîì, íèçêàÿ åìêîñòü ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è íèçêîå äîâåðèå ê ãîñóäàðñòâó ñî ñòîðîíû èíâåñòîðîâ ñëóæàò îäíèìè èç îñíîâíûõ ïðè÷èí ðîñòà äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ è óâåëè÷åíèÿ òåìïà èíôëÿöèè.
Ïåðå÷èñëåííûå âûøå ôàêòîðû òàêæå îáóñëàâëèâàþò íåîáõîäèìîñòü äëÿ ïðàâèòåëüñòâ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí îñóùåñòâëÿòü çàèìñòâîâàíèÿ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ôèíàíñîâîì ðûíêå ïóòåì âûïóñêà îáëèãàöèé, íîìèíèðîâàííûõ â èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòå. Ñòîèìîñòü ïðèâëå÷åííûõ òàêèì îáðàçîì ñðåäñòâ çàâèñèò îò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ, à òàêæå îò öåí íà ýêñïîðòèðóåìûå è èìïîðòèðóåìûå òîâàðû (òàáëèöà 1). Ïðè÷èíàìè ðîñòà ñòîèìîñòè îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà äëÿ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàí ìîãóò áûòü ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ, ñíèæåíèå ñòîèìîñòè åäèíèöû ýêñïîðòà è óäîðîæàíèå ñòîèìîñòè åäèíèöû èìïîðòà.
Òàáëèöà 1.
Ìèðîâûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ïåðåìåííûå
(1980 = 100)

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983

_______________
*) Ðîñò

Ðîñò ÂÂÏ â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ, ïðîöåíòîâ*)
6,0
0,7
-0,4
5,0
3,9
4,0
3,2
1,3
1,5
-0,5
2,3

Ðîñò ÂÂÏ
Èíäåêñ
â ñòðàíàõ ðåàëüíûõ Ëàò. Àìåðèêè, ñûðüåâûõ ïðîöåíòîâ öåí
8,6
127
6,9
130
4,1
94
8,3
108
5,6
121
3,2
102
6,1
103
4,5
100
-3,1
87
-0,7
81
-2,2
89

Ðåàëüíàÿ ñòàâêà ïðîöåíòà â
ÑØÀ
-0,8
1,5
2,7
1,0
-0,6
0,4
3,5
5,6
12,8
11,0
7,0

Ýôôåêòèâíàÿ ðåàëüíàÿ ñòàâêà ïðîöåíòà â ñòðàíàõ
Ëàò. Àìåðèêè**)
-27,4
12,3
2,3
-8,3
3,0
-7,6
2,1
20,3
25,5
18,7
9,3

ÂÂÏ â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ (ñòðàíû-÷ëåíû ãðóïïû OECD) è ñòðàíàõ Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ðàâåí âçâåøåííîìó ïî äîëëàðîâîé ñòîèìîñòè ÂÂÏ èçìåíåíèþ ÂÂÏ â äàííûõ ñòðàíàõ.
**) Ýôôåêòèâíàÿ ñòàâêà ïðîöåíòà â ñòðàíàõ Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ðàâíà äåôëÿòèðîâàííîé ïî èíäåêñó ïîòðåáèòåëüñêèõ öåí ðàçíèöå ìåæäó íîìèíàëüíûì LIBOR è ïðèðîñòîì ñûðüåâûõ ýêñïîðòíûõ öåí.

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

191

Îãðàíè÷åííîñòü äîñòóïíûõ äëÿ èíâåñòèðîâàíèÿ ñðåäñòâ ïðèâîäèò ê âîçíèêíîâåíèþ êîíêóðåíöèè çà êàïèòàë ìåæäó ãîñóäàðñòâîì è ÷àñòíûì ñåêòîðîì.
Äîïîëíèòåëüíîå ðàçìåùåíèå ãîñóäàðñòâîì ñâîèõ äîëãîâûõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ âåäåò ê ñîêðàùåíèþ èíâåñòèöèé â ÷àñòíîå ïðîèçâîäñòâî, òî åñòü âîçíèêàåò ýôôåêò çàìåùåíèÿ ìåæäó ãîñóäàðñòâåííûìè ðàñõîäàìè è ÷àñòíûìè èíâåñòèöèÿìè.
Ïîñòóïàþùèå íà ôèíàíñîâûé ðûíîê èíîñòðàííûå êàïèòàëû èãðàþò äîìèíèðóþùóþ ðîëü â ïðîöåññå öåíîîáðàçîâàíèÿ. Öåíû ôèíàíñîâûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ ñëàáî çàâèñÿò îò ôóíäàìåíòàëüíûõ ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ïîêàçàòåëåé. Îðèåíòèðîâàííîñòü èãðîêîâ íà ñïåêóëÿòèâíûå îïåðàöèè, îãðàíè÷åííîñòü ÷èñëà îáðàùàþùèõ ôèíàíñîâûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ ïðèâîäèò ê ÷àñòîìó âîçíèêíîâåíèþ “ñïåêóëÿòèâíûõ ïóçûðåé” [5, 11].
Áàíêîâñêàÿ ñèñòåìà èãðàåò ãëàâåíñòâóþùóþ, à ôîíäîâûé ðûíîê - íàîáîðîò ïîä÷èíåííóþ ðîëü â ïðîöåññå ïðèâëå÷åíèÿ ñðåäñòâ â ðåàëüíîå ïðîèçâîäñòâî.
Òîëüêî îãðàíè÷åííûé êðóã ïðîèçâîäèòåëåé â ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ èìååò ïðÿìîé äîñòóï ê ðûíêàì êàïèòàëà è ñïîñîáåí ïðèâëåêàòü ñðåäñòâà ïóòåì âûïóñêà àêöèé è îáëèãàöèé. Îñòàëüíûì, âñëåäñòâèå íåðàçâèòîñòè âíóòðåííèõ ôîíäîâûõ ðûíêîâ, ïðèõîäèòñÿ èñïîëüçîâàòü ïîñðåäíè÷åñòâî áàíêîâ (èëè ïðåäîñòàâëåíèå áàíêîâñêèõ ãàðàíòèé è ïîðó÷èòåëüñòâ, èëè êðåäèòû áàíêîâ â èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòå). Ýòî ïðèâîäèò ê óäîðîæàíèþ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ è âûñîêîé çàâèñèìîñòè ðåàëüíîãî ïðîèçâîäñòâà îò ôèíàíñîâîãî ñîñòîÿíèÿ áàíêîâñêîãî ñåêòîðà.
Áàíêîâñêàÿ ñèñòåìà èãðàåò è åùå îäíó âàæíóþ ðîëü â ïðîöåññå àêöåïòèðîâàíèÿ èíîñòðàííûõ èíâåñòèöèé. Íèçêîå äîâåðèå íàñåëåíèÿ ê íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòå âåäåò ê òîìó, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé àêêóìóëèðóåòñÿ â âèäå ÷àñòíûõ ñáåðåæåíèé â èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòå. Âîçìîæíîñòü èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ ýòèõ ñðåäñòâ íà èíâåñòèöèîííûå öåëè çàâèñèò îò ñòåïåíè ðàçâèòîñòè áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû.
 ñèëó òîãî, ÷òî â ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ñòðàíàõ âûñîêî ó÷àñòèå ãîñóäàðñòâà â êàïèòàëå áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû è íèçîê ïðîôåññèîíàëüíûé óðîâåíü áàíêîâñêîãî ïåðñîíàëà, ðàñïðåäåëåíèå êðåäèòíûõ ðåñóðñîâ çàâèñèò çà÷àñòóþ íå îò ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ôàêòîðîâ (ðåíòàáåëüíîñòè è ïðèáûëüíîñòè). Ñ ýòèì ñâÿçàíà íèçêàÿ ýôôåêòèâíîñòü âëîæåíèé. Ãîñóäàðñòâåííîå ó÷àñòèå òàêæå îáóñëàâëèâàåò òî, ÷òî â ñëó÷àå íåïëàòåæåñïîñîáíîñòè êîíå÷íîãî çàåìùèêà îáñëóæèâàíèå ÷àñòíîãî äîëãà ìîæåò ëå÷ü íà ïëå÷è ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî áþäæåòà.
1.2. Ïðè÷èíû ïðèòîêà/îòòîêà êàïèòàëà ñ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ
Îñíîâíûìè èíîñòðàííûìè èíâåñòîðàìè íà ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêàõ ÿâëÿþòñÿ òàê íàçûâàåìûå êâàëèôèöèðîâàííûå èíâåñòîðû (áàíêè, èíâåñòèöèîííûå ôîíäû, ñïåêóëÿòèâíûå õåäæ-ôîíäû), óìåþùèå äîñòàòî÷íî ãðàìîòíî îöåíèâàòü ðèñê è ïîòåíöèàëüíóþ äîõîäíîñòü âëîæåíèé è èíâåñòèðóþùèå ñâîè ñðåäñòâà ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî â íàèáîëåå ëèêâèäíûå èíñòðóìåíòû (ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå äîëãîâûå îáÿçàòåëüñòâà è öåííûå áóìàãè ýêñïîðòîîðèåíòèðîâàííûõ êîìïàíèé, ïðèíàäëåæàùèõ ê ÷èñëó “ãîëóáûõ ôèøåê”). Òàêèå èíâåñòîðû îðèåíòèðîâàíû ïðåèìóùåñòâåííî íà ñîâåðøåíèå êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ âëîæåíèé, ïîëó÷àÿ ïðèáûëü íà àðáèòðàæíûõ è ñïåêóëÿòèâíûõ îïåðàöèÿõ.
Òàêîé õàðàêòåð âëîæåíèé ñîçäàåò âûñîêóþ ìîáèëüíîñòü êàïèòàëîâ: èíâåñòîðû ïîëó÷àþò âîçìîæíîñòü âûâåñòè âëîæåííûå ñðåäñòâà ñ ìèíèìàëüíûìè ïîòåðÿìè. Ïðè âûáîðå îáúåêòà âëîæåíèé èíîñòðàííûå èíâåñòîðû îðèåíòèðóþòñÿ íà

192

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

¹2

óðîâåíü äîõîäíîñòè âëîæåíèé â ñâîåé íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòå. Óñëîâèå âûáîðà èíâåñòîðà â ïîëüçó èíîñòðàííîãî ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà ñîñòîèò äëÿ íèõ â âûïîëíåíèè íåðàâåíñòâà: (1)

Et-1(Rdt) < Et-1(Rft) - Et-1(St),

ãäå Et-1(Rdt) è Et-1(Rft) - ñîîòâåòñòâåííî îæèäàåìûå äîõîäíîñòè âëîæåíèé (ñ ó÷åòîì âåðîÿòíîñòè íåèñïîëíåíèÿ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ) íà âíóòðåííåì è èíîñòðàííîì ôèíàíñîâîì ðûíêàõ è Et-1(St) - îæèäàåìîå îáåñöåíåíèå èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòû îòíîñèòåëüíî íàöèîíàëüíîé (â ïðîöåíòàõ). Ýòî íåðàâåíñòâî ïîêàçûâàåò çàâèñèìîñòü äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå îò îæèäàíèé èçìåíåíèé âàëþòíûõ êóðñîâ. Èíâåñòîðàìè ïðè âûáîðå ñòðàíû âëîæåíèÿ îöåíèâàåòñÿ ìíîæåñòâî ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ è ïîëèòè÷åñêèõ ôàêòîðîâ, â ïåðâóþ î÷åðåäü äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíàÿ ïîëèòèêà (âûñîêèé òåìï ðîñòà äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ óâåëè÷èâàåò èíôëÿöèîííóþ ñîñòàâëÿþùóþ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è âûçûâàåò ðîñò âåðîÿòíîñòè äåâàëüâàöèè âàëþòû), âîïðîñû çàêîíîäàòåëüíîãî îáåñïå÷åíèÿ çàùèòû ïðàâ èíâåñòîðîâ, óñëîâèÿ ðåïàòðèàöèè êàïèòàëà, óðîâåíü íàäåæíîñòè êîíòðàãåíòîâ.
Íà îöåíêè îòäà÷è âëîæåíèé òàêæå âîçäåéñòâóþò âåëè÷èíà äåôèöèòà áþäæåòà - áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ èíâåñòîðàìè êàê ôàêòîð ðèñêà, âëèÿþùèé íà óðîâåíü òðåáóåìîé äîõîäíîñòè, - à òàêæå èñïîëüçóåìûå ñïîñîáû åãî ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ.  ñëó÷àå, åñëè ãîñóäàðñòâî ôèíàíñèðóåò áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò ïóòåì ñåíüîðàæà, òî ðîñò äåôèöèòà áóäåò ñîïðîâîæäàòüñÿ óâåëè÷åíèåì äåíåæíîé ìàññû è êðàòêîñðî÷íûì ñíèæåíèåì ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê, ÷òî íàðÿäó ñ ðîñòîì èíôëÿöèîííûõ îæèäàíèé âûçîâåò îòòîê êàïèòàëà. Òàêîé ñïîñîá ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ äåôèöèòà òàêæå óâåëè÷èâàåò ðèñê äåâàëüâàöèè âàëþòû âëîæåíèÿ. Åñëè ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå äåôèöèòà áþäæåòà îñóùåñòâëÿåòñÿ ñ ïîìîùüþ âûïóñêà äîëãîñðî÷íûõ îáëèãàöèé, òî ýôôåêò áóäåò îáðàòíûì (ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è óâåëè÷åíèå ïðèòîêà êàïèòàëà).
Äâèæåíèå êàïèòàëà íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ôèíàíñîâîì ðûíêå òàêæå çàâèñèò îò ïðîöåññîâ, ïðîèñõîäÿùèõ íà òîâàðíûõ ðûíêàõ. Îáû÷íî ïðèòîê èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòû íàáëþäàåòñÿ â òå ñòðàíû, êîòîðûå èìåþò ïîëîæèòåëüíîå ñàëüäî ïî âíåøíåòîðãîâûì îïåðàöèÿì è îáúåì âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé ïðåâîñõîäèò îáÿçàòåëüíûå âíåøíèå ïëàòåæè (ñîîòíîøåíèå ýêñïîðò/îáñëóæèâàíèå âíåøíåãî äîëãà).
Çíà÷èòåëüíîå ïðåâûøåíèå ýêñïîðòà íàä ïëàòåæàìè ïî âíåøíåìó äîëãó ðàññìàòðèâàåòñÿ êàê ãàðàíòèÿ îò äåâàëüâàöèè âàëþòû ñòðàíû âëîæåíèÿ. Ïîäòâåðæäåíèåì äàííîé ãèïîòåçû ñëóæàò ðåçóëüòàòû ïðîâåäåííîãî àâòîðîì àíàëèçà: åñëè êîýôôèöèåíò êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó ñàëüäî òåêóùåãî ñ÷åòà è ñàëüäî ñ÷åòà äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà äëÿ ïÿòè îòìå÷åííûõ âûøå ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí ïðè íóëåâîì ëàãå â ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ïî 1992 ãã. ñîñòàâèë 0,62, òî êîýôôèöèåíò êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó ñàëüäî òåêóùåãî ñ÷åòà è ñàëüäî ïî ñ÷åòàì äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà ñ ëàãîì â 2 ãîäà îêàçàëñÿ ðàâåí 0,55.
Ñóùåñòâîâàíèå çàâèñèìîñòè äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà îò ñîñòîÿíèÿ âíåøíåòîðãîâîãî áàëàíñà îáóñëàâëèâàåò öèêëè÷íîñòü äâèæåíèé ñðåäñòâ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà. Êàê ïîêàçàë Ðîäðèãåñ [18], còðàíà, îáëàäàþùàÿ ïîëîæèòåëüíûì ñàëüäî ïî òåêóùåìó ñ÷åòó, èìååò íåäîîöåíåííóþ ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ ðàâíîâåñíûì óðîâíåì âàëþòó. Èíâåñòîðû, îðèåíòèðóÿñü íà íåäîîöåíåííîñòü âàëþòû è îæèäàÿ â áóäóùåì ðîñò åå ðåàëüíîãî çíà÷åíèÿ, áóäóò óâåëè÷èâàòü ñâîè âëîæåíèÿ íà ôèíàíñîâîì ðûíêå äàííîé ñòðàíû. Ñóùåñòâóþùèé èçëèøåê ïî âíåøíåòîðãîâûì îïå-

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

193

ðàöèÿì è ïî ñ÷åòàì äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà ïðèâåäåò ê ðîñòó çàïàñîâ èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòû è, ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, îáùåãî áîãàòñòâà. Ýòî â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü âûçîâåò óâåëè÷åíèå èìïîðòíûõ ïîòîêîâ è ñîîòâåòñòâåííî ñîêðàùåíèå ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà. Ñíèæåíèå ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà ìîæåò ÿâëÿòüñÿ ñèãíàëîì äëÿ èíâåñòîðîâ ñîêðàùàòü ñâîè âëîæåíèÿ â äàííîé âàëþòå, ÷òî ñïðîâîöèðóåò îòòîê âàëþòû èç ñòðàíû. Îòòîê âàëþòû èç ñòðàíû â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü ìîæåò âûçâàòü ïàäåíèå ñòîèìîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû. Òàêèì îáðàçîì, íåäîñòàòî÷íîñòü âíóòðåííèõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðåñóðñîâ è íåðàçâèòîñòü âíóòðåííèõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ, îáóñëàâëèâàþùèå âûñîêóþ ñòîèìîñòü çàåìíîãî êàïèòàëà äëÿ ïðîèçâîäèòåëÿ, ãîñóäàðñòâåííîå âìåøàòåëüñòâî è íåâûãîäíàÿ ñòðóêòóðà ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî äîëãà ÿâëÿþòñÿ îäíîé èç îñíîâíûõ ïðè÷èí âûñîêîé çàâèñèìîñòè ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ îò øîêîâ íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà. Äðóãèìè âàæíûìè ôàêòîðàìè ãåíåðàöèè ôèíàíñîâûõ êðèçèñîâ ÿâëÿþòñÿ ýêñïàíñèîíèñòñêàÿ äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíàÿ è/èëè ôèñêàëüíàÿ ïîëèòèêà è îòðèöàòåëüíîå ñàëüäî ïî òåêóùèì ñ÷åòàì.

2. Ýêîíîìè÷åñêîå ðàçâèòèå ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 70-80-ûå ãîäû
 íà÷àëå 70-ûõ ãîäîâ äëÿ áîëüøèíñòâà ñòðàí ðåãèîíà áûëî õàðàêòåðíî ñî÷åòàíèå âûñîêèõ òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà (ïðèðîñò ÂÂÏ ñîñòàâëÿë â ñðåäíåì
6-8% â ãîä) è íåâûñîêèõ (â ïðåäåëàõ 10% â ãîä) òåìïîâ èíôëÿöèè. Îáìåííûå êóðñû íàöèîíàëüíûõ âàëþò ñòðàí ðåãèîíà ïîääåðæèâàëèñü íà ôèêñèðîâàííîì óðîâíå ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê äîëëàðó. Îïðåäåëåííîå èñêëþ÷åíèå ñîñòàâëÿëè Áðàçèëèÿ, äëÿ êîòîðîé áûëà õàðàêòåðíà îòíîñèòåëüíî âûñîêàÿ (ñâûøå 20%) èíôëÿöèÿ, ×èëè è
Àðãåíòèíà, â êîòîðûõ ñíèæåíèå òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà è óâåëè÷åíèå òåìïîâ èíôëÿöèè íà÷àëîñü â ñåðåäèíå 60-õ ãîäîâ. Îäíîé èç ïðè÷èí ýòîãî ñòàëî ïàäåíèå öåí íà îñíîâíûå ïðîäóêòû ýêñïîðòà: ìåäü (×èëè) è ïðîäîâîëüñòâèå (Àðãåíòèíà).
Øîêîâûé ðîñò öåí íà íåôòü ïîñëå 1973 ã. èìåë ðàçëè÷íûå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ äëÿ ñòðàí ðåãèîíà. Åñëè, íàïðèìåð, Ìåêñèêà, Âåíåñóýëà, Áîëèâèÿ, Ýêâàäîð êàê ñòðàíû-ýêñïîðòåðû íåôòè âûèãðàëè îò ðîñòà öåí, òî áîëüøèíñòâî äðóãèõ ãîñóäàðñòâ ðåãèîíà îêàçàëèñü â ÷èñëå ïîñòðàäàâøèõ, òàê êàê øîê âûçâàë ñíèæåíèå èõ ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà è âûíóäèë îáðàòèòüñÿ çà âíåøíèìè çàéìàìè äëÿ ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ èìïîðòà ýíåðãîíîñèòåëåé.
 70-å ãîäû ñóùåñòâîâàë ñâîåîáðàçíûé äîëãîâîé ðàé: áëàãîäàðÿ íèçêèì ïðîöåíòíûì ñòàâêàì â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ, âûãîäíûì îáìåííûì êóðñàì è îòíîñèòåëüíûì ýêñïîðòíûì öåíàì ñòîèìîñòü âíåøíèõ êðåäèòîâ äëÿ ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ çàåìùèêîâ áûëà î÷åíü íèçêà (òàáëèöà 1). Äðóãèì ôàêòîðîì, îáóñëîâèâøèì ðîñò âíåøíèõ çàéìîâ, áûëî ïðåâûøåíèå âíóòðåííèõ íîðì ïðîöåíòà íàä íîðìàìè ïðîöåíòà â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ. Áîëüøèíñòâî ïîñòóïàâøèõ â ýêîíîìèêó ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ñðåäñòâ ïðîõîäèëî ÷åðåç áàíêîâñêèé ñåêòîð.
Îäíàêî íå òîëüêî ðîñò ñòîèìîñòè ýíåðãîíîñèòåëåé ñòàë ïðè÷èíîé íàêîïëåíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà. Âàæíóþ ðîëü â ýòîì ïðîöåññå ñûãðàëà ýêñïàíñèîíèñòñêàÿ ïîëèòèêà ñòðàí ðåãèîíà. Èëëþñòðàöèåé ýòîãî ñëóæèò òîò ôàêò, ÷òî îáúåì âíåøíåé çàäîëæåííîñòè âûðîñ íå òîëüêî â ñòðàíàõ-èìïîðòåðàõ, íî è â ñòðàíàõ-ýêñïîðòåðàõ íåôòè (â ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ã. ïî 1983 ã. âíåøíèé äîëã Ìåêñèêè âûðîñ ñ 22,5 äî 89,8 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, à Âåíåñóýëû - ñ 5,5 äî 44,9 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ). Ñóùåñòâîâà-

194

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¹2

ëà âûñîêàÿ çàâèñèìîñòü ìåæäó èçìåíåíèåì ñàëüäî ïî ñ÷åòàì äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà, áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà è äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ.  ÷àñòíîñòè, êîýôôèöèåíò êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó èçìåíåíèåì äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ è ïðèòîêîì ñðåäñòâ ïî ñ÷åòàì äâèæåíèÿ êàïèòàëà â ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ã. ïî 1992 ã. êîëåáàëñÿ îò 0,42 äëÿ Àðãåíòèíû äî 0,91 äëÿ Áðàçèëèè.
 ðåçóëüòàòå ìàññîâûõ âíåøíèõ çàèìñòâîâàíèé è ïàäåíèÿ îòíîñèòåëüíûõ öåí ýêñïîðòà â ñòðàíàõ-èìïîðòåðàõ ýíåðãîíîñèòåëåé îäíîâðåìåííî âûðîñëè è âíåøíèé äîëã, è ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëã/ýêñïîðò. Òàê, ê ïðèìåðó, â ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ã. ïî
1983 ã. âíåøíèé äîëã âûðîñ äëÿ Àðãåíòèíû: ñ 7,9 äî 45,3 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, à ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëã/ýêñïîðò ñ 92,7% äî 144,7%; äëÿ Áðàçèëèè - âíåøíèé äîëã: ñ 26 äî 93,1 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëã/ýêñïîðò: ñ 236,6% äî 364,9%; äëÿ ×èëè
- âíåøíèé äîëã ñ 5,4 äî 18,6 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëã/ýêñïîðò ñ 282,3% äî 374,9%. Îáùåå äëÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ñîîòíîøåíèå äîëã/ýêñïîðò óâåëè÷èëîñü ñ 1973 ã. ïî 1983 ã. ñ 176% äî 243%, à ïî íîìèíàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè âíåøíèé äîëã çà òîò æå ïåðèîä âûðîñ ñ 73 äî 325 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, ïðè÷åì áîëåå
80% îáùåãî âíåøíåãî äîëãà ïðèõîäèëîñü íà äîëþ ãîñóäàðñòâà (â îòëè÷èå îò ñòðàí
Þãî-Âîñòî÷íîé Àçèè, ãäå îñíîâíûìè çàåìùèêàìè âûñòóïàëè ÷àñòíûå êîìïàíèè).
Ðîñò èíîñòðàííûõ çàèìñòâîâàíèé ïðèâåë ê óâåëè÷åíèþ èìïîðòà è ê ðîñòó ðåàëüíûõ îáìåííûõ êóðñîâ íàöèîíàëüíûõ âàëþò, ÷òî âûçâàëî óìåíüøåíèå ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà è ñïðîâîöèðîâàëî åùå áîëüøóþ çàâèñèìîñòü ñòðàí îò âíåøíèõ èñòî÷íèêîâ ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ. Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà òàêæå ïîçâîëÿë ïîääåðæèâàòü îòíîñèòåëüíî âûñîêèå òåìïû ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà, à òàêæå ñòàíäàðòû ïîòðåáëåíèÿ è óðîâåíü ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ.
Ñèòóàöèÿ ðåçêî èçìåíèëàñü â íà÷àëå 80-ûõ ãîäîâ. Ïàäåíèå îòíîñèòåëüíûõ ñûðüåâûõ öåí íà ìèðîâûõ òîâàðíûõ ðûíêàõ è ñíèæåíèå ïðîèçâîäñòâà â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ (òàáëèöà 1) ïðèâåëî ê ñîêðàùåíèþ äîõîäîâ îò ýêñïîðòà. Ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê îêàçàë çíà÷èòåëüíîå âîçäåéñòâèå íà óñëîâèÿ çàèìñòâîâàíèÿ äëÿ ñòðàí ðåãèîíà. Îí òàêæå âûçâàë ðîñò ïðîöåíòíûõ ïëàòåæåé, ÷òî áûëî îáóñëîâëåíî òåì, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü äîëãà áûëà ñîñðåäîòî÷åíà â ôîðìå îáÿçàòåëüñòâ ñ ïëàâàþùåé ñòàâêîé.
Ðîñò äîõîäíîñòè âëîæåíèé íà ðûíêàõ ÑØÀ è Çàïàäíîé Åâðîïû è èçìåíåíèå îæèäàíèé èíâåñòîðîâ îòíîñèòåëüíî óñëîâèé ðàçâèòèÿ ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí ñïðîâîöèðîâàëè îòòîê êàïèòàëà ñ ìåñòíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ. Îòòîêó êàïèòàëà òàêæå ñïîñîáñòâîâàëà âûçâàííàÿ ïðåäûäóùèìè ïðîöåññàìè ïåðåîöåíêà ñòîèìîñòè âàëþò - îæèäàíèå äåâàëüâàöèè ïðèâåëî ê îòòîêó íå òîëüêî èíîñòðàííûõ, íî è ÷àñòè ìåñòíûõ êàïèòàëîâ (äåïîçèòû, ïðèíàäëåæàùèå ãðàæäàíàì
Ìåêñèêè, â áàíêàõ ÑØÀ âûðîñëè ñ 1980 ã. ïî 1983 ã. íà 4 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ [9].
Ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèå ñòðàíû, çà èñêëþ÷åíèåì ×èëè è Áðàçèëèè (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1), íå ïðåäïðèíèìàëè ïîïûòîê îñëàáèòü îòòîê êàïèòàëà ïóòåì ïîâûøåíèÿ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê. Íàîáîðîò, ÷òîáû ñíèçèòü íåãàòèâíîå âîçäåéñòâèå îòòîêà êàïèòàëà íà óðîâåíü èíâåñòèöèé è ïðîèçâîäñòâà â áîëüøèíñòâå ñòðàí ïðîöåíòíûå ñòàâêè áûëè ñíèæåíû (ïîëèòèêà ðàöèîíèðîâàíèÿ êðåäèòîâ). Ýòî, îäíàêî, íå îêàçàëî ïîçèòèâíîãî âëèÿíèÿ íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ àêòèâíîñòü è ïîäõëåñòíóëî ðîñò èíôëÿöèè. Âûñîêàÿ èíôëÿöèÿ ñòàëà îäíîé èç îñíîâíûõ õàðàêòåðèñòèê ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ðåãèîíà â 80-ûå ãîäû. Âàæíåéøèìè ôàêòîðàìè áåñïðåöåíäåíòíîãî ðîñòà èíôëÿöèè â ïåðèîä êðèçèñà (â îòäåëüíûå ãîäû óðîâåíü èíôëÿöèè â Àðãåíòèíå, Áîëèâèè, Áðàçèëèè è ðÿäå äðóãèõ ñòðàí ðåãèîíà ïðåâûøàë îòìåòêó 1000% â

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

195

ãîä) ñòàëè ðîñò áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà è åãî ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå ïðè ïîìîùè ñåíüîðàæà, îáåñöåíèâàíèå íàöèîíàëüíûõ âàëþò, “äîëëàðèçàöèÿ” äåíåæíîãî îáðàùåíèÿ è ñîöèàëüíàÿ íàïðÿæåííîñòü.
 óñëîâèÿõ ïðèíàäëåæíîñòè áîëüøåé ÷àñòè âíåøíåãî äîëãà ãîñóäàðñòâó ðîñò çàòðàò íà åãî îáñëóæèâàíèå âåäåò íàïðÿìóþ ê óâåëè÷åíèþ ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ. (Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî ðîñò ñòîèìîñòè îáñëóæèâàíèÿ êîðïîðàòèâíîãî äîëãà ñîïðîâîæäàåòñÿ óâåëè÷åíèåì áþäæåòíûõ ðàñõîäîâ ëèøü â ñëó÷àå ïðèíÿòèÿ ãîñóäàðñòâîì íà ñåáÿ ÷àñòè êîðïîðàòèâíûõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ.) Ñíà÷àëà ñòðàíû ðåãèîíà ïûòàëèñü ïðèìåíÿòü íå òîëüêî ýìèññèîííûå ìåõàíèçìû ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ óâåëè÷åíèÿ ðàñõîäîâ, íî ïðè ïîïûòêå óâåëè÷èòü íàëîãè ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ñòîëêíóëèñü ñ ñèòóàöèåé ìàññîâîãî óêëîíåíèÿ îò íàëîãîâ, à îïðåæàþùåå ñîêðàùåíèå íåäîëãîâûõ ðàñõîäîâ áûëî çàòðóäíèòåëüíî â ñèëó ñîöèàëüíûõ ïðè÷èí. Ïîýòîìó áûë èçáðàí ïóòü íàðàùèâàíèÿ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà. Ñòîèò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî ñòðàíû, îñóùåñòâèâøèå íàëîãîâûå ðåôîðìû, îïòèìèçèðîâàâøèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå ðàñõîäû è çà ñ÷åò ýòîãî ñíèçèâøèå áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò, ñìîãëè èçáåæàòü ðîñòà èíôëÿöèè, íåñìîòðÿ íà îòòîê êàïèòàëà (ïðåæäå âñåãî, ýòî êàñàåòñÿ ×èëè è Âåíåñóýëû).
Òàêèì îáðàçîì, íóæäû îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà ïðèâåëè ê ðîñòó áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà. Ê ñåðåäèíå 80-õ ãîäîâ â Ìåêñèêå, Àðãåíòèíå, Áîëèâèè è Áðàçèëèè äåôèöèòû áþäæåòîâ âûðîñëè äî äâóçíà÷íûõ çíà÷åíèé (ïðîöåíòû ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê ÂÂÏ).  ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà ñ îòíîñèòåëüíî ðàçâèòûìè ôèíàíñîâûìè ðûíêàìè (Ìåêñèêà, Áðàçèëèÿ, Àðãåíòèíà) äëÿ ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ äåôèöèòà áþäæåòà èñïîëüçîâàëè ïåðâîíà÷àëüíî â îñíîâíîì ýìèññèþ ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ îáëèãàöèé, îäíàêî, ïðåîáëàäàíèå â ñòðóêòóðå âíóòðåííåãî äîëãà êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ áóìàã ïðèâåëî ê äàëüíåéøåìó óâåëè÷åíèþ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà.  èòîãå îñíîâíûì ìåõàíèçìîì ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà ñòàë ñåíüîðàæ, èñïîëüçîâàâøèéñÿ è êàê ñïîñîá ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèÿ âàëþòíûõ ñðåäñòâ èç ÷àñòíîãî ñåêòîðà â ãîñóäàðñòâåííûé. Îáúåìû ñåíüîðàæà ê ñåðåäèíå 80-ûõ ãîäîâ ðåçêî âûðîñëè (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1), íî áûëè ñîõðàíåíû è ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå çàèìñòâîâàíèÿ íà îòêðûòîì ðûíêå, ïîñêîëüêó îãðàíè÷åííîñòü â ñèëó âûñîêèõ èíôëÿöèîííûõ îæèäàíèé è çíà÷èòåëüíîé “äîëëàðèçàöèè” ýêîíîìèêè äåíåæíîé áàçû, îáû÷íî íå ïðåâûøàâøåé
5-10% îò ÂÂÏ (â îòäåëüíûå ãîäû â Áîëèâèè è Àðãåíòèíå ñîîòíîøåíèå äåíåæíàÿ áàçà/ÂÂÏ ñîñòàâëÿëî ìåíåå 1%), íå ïîçâîëÿëà ðåçêî óâåëè÷èòü äîõîäû ãîñóäàðñòâà îò ñåíüîðàæà.
Èíôëÿöèîííîå ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå äåôèöèòà áþäæåòà çàñòàâëÿëî ïðàâèòåëüñòâà ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí âñå áîëüøå ïîëàãàòüñÿ íà íåíàëîãîâûå èñòî÷íèêè ôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ - èñïîëüçîâàíèå ñåíüîðàæà è îáóñëîâëåííîå èì ïîâûøåíèå òåìïîâ èíôëÿöèè ïðèâîäèëî ê ñíèæåíèþ ðåàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè íàëîãîâûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé âñëåäñòâèå ñóùåñòâîâàíèÿ ëàãà ìåæäó óïëàòîé íàëîãîâ è èõ ðàñõîäîâàíèåì (ýôôåêò Îëèâåðà-Òàíöè) è â ñâÿçè ñ çàïàçäûâàíèåì ïåðåñìîòðà øêàëû íàëîãîîáëîæåíèÿ.  ðåçóëüòàòå ñîîòíîøåíèå íàëîãîâûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé è ÂÂÏ â ñòðàíàõ-äîëæíèêàõ, äëÿ êîòîðûõ áûëè õàðàêòåðíû âûñîêèå òåìïû èíôëÿöèè, ðåçêî óìåíüøàëîñü.  ÷àñòíîñòè, â Áîëèâèè â 1985 ã. â ïåðèîä ãèïåðèíôëÿöèè (èíôëÿöèÿ ïðåâûøàëà 10000% â ãîä (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1) ñîîòíîøåíèå íàëîãîâûå ñáîðû/ÂÂÏ ñíèçèëîñü äî 1,3% [20].
Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèå ñðåäñòâ â ðåçóëüòàòå èçìåíåíèÿ ñòðóêòóðû ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ òàêæå ñòàëî ôàêòîðîì ñíèæåíèÿ èíâåñòèöèé, íåãàòèâíî îòðàçèâøåìñÿ íà óðîâíå ïðîèçâîäñòâà. Âî-ïåðâûõ, âûñîêàÿ äîõîä-

196

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¹2

íîñòü ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ öåííûõ áóìàã, âûçâàííàÿ ðîñòîì áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà, è óñòàíîâëåíèå ãîñóäàðñòâîì îãðàíè÷åíèé íà ïðåäåëüíóþ äîõîäíîñòü êðåäèòîâ ðåàëüíîìó ñåêòîðó âî ìíîãèõ ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà ïðèâåëè ê íåáëàãîïðèÿòíîìó äëÿ ðàçâèòèÿ ýêîíîìèêè ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèþ ôèíàíñîâûõ ñðåäñòâ. Âî-âòîðûõ, ïðîèçîøëî ñîêðàùåíèå îáúåìà ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, íàïðàâëÿåìûõ íà èíâåñòèöèîííûå íóæäû.  èòîãå äîëÿ èíâåñòèöèé â ÂÂÏ â òîò ïåðèîä óïàëà â ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà â ñðåäíåì íà 4-5%.
 îòëè÷èå îò 30-ûõ ãîäîâ, êîãäà ñòðàíû Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè, îáúÿâèâ â ìàññîâîì ïîðÿäêå äåôîëò [8], ñìîãëè ñ÷àñòëèâî ïåðåæèòü ãëîáàëüíóþ ðåöåññèþ, ñåé÷àñ îíè áûëè âûíóæäåíû îáñëóæèâàòü âíåøíèé äîëã. (Îäíîñòîðîííèé ìîðàòîðèé íà îáñëóæèâàíèå ÷àñòè âíåøíåãî äîëãà áûë îáúÿâëåí â Ïåðó, Áîëèâèè è
Íèêàðàãóà â ñåðåäèíå 80-ûõ ãîäîâ, êîãäà çàòðàòû íà îáñëóæèâàíèå âíåøíåãî äîëãà ñðàâíÿëèñü èëè ïðåâûñèëè íàëîãîâûå äîõîäû áþäæåòà.) Íà íóæäû åãî îáñëóæèâàíèÿ íàïðàâëÿëèñü çíà÷èòåëüíûå ðåñóðñû îáùåñòâà (äî 8-10% ÂÂÏ â ãîä).
Cóùåñòâóåò òðè îñíîâíûõ ïóòè ðåøåíèÿ ïðîáëåìû âíåøíåé çàäîëæåííîñòè, êàê ýòî îïðåäåëÿåò êëàññè÷åñêàÿ òåîðèÿ:
1) óâåëè÷åíèå áþäæåòíûõ äîõîäîâ, ÷àñòü èç êîòîðûõ íàïðàâëÿåòñÿ íà âûïëàòó âíåøíåãî äîëãà;
2) óâåëè÷åíèå ïîëîæèòåëüíîãî ñàëüäî âíåøíåòîðãîâîãî áàëàíñà ïóòåì çàìåùåíèÿ èìïîðòà èëè ðîñòà ýêñïîðòà;
3) óâåëè÷åíèå âíóòðåííèõ ñáåðåæåíèé.
Çàäà÷à ãîñóäàðñòâà â óñëîâèÿõ âûñîêîé âíåøíåé äîëãîâîé íàãðóçêè - îáåñïå÷èòü ïåðåðàñïðåäåëåíèå ðåñóðñîâ â ïîëüçó ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ äîõîäîâ è ýêñïîðòíûõ, è èìïîðòîçàìåùàþùèõ îòðàñëåé ñ öåëüþ ðîñòà ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà.
Îáû÷íî ñòèìóëèðîâàíèå ýêñïîðòà è ñîêðàùåíèå èìïîðòà äîñòèãàåòñÿ ïóòåì óìåíüøåíèÿ ðåàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû. Ýòîò ñïîñîá øèðîêî èñïîëüçîâàëñÿ ñòðàíàìè ðåãèîíà.  1982-1990 ãã. â ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàíàõ ñ âûñîêîé äîëãîâîé íàãðóçêîé ðîñò êóðñà äîëëàðà îïåðåæàë òåìï èíôëÿöèè, êàê ïðàâèëî, áîëåå ÷åì â äâà ðàçà. Ïðè ýòîì ñëåäóåò ó÷åñòü, ÷òî îïåðåæàþùèå ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñ âíóòðåííåé èíôëÿöèåé òåìïû äåâàëüâàöèè èñïîëüçîâàëèñü íå òîëüêî â öåëÿõ îáåñïå÷åíèÿ ïîëîæèòåëüíîãî ñàëüäî òîðãîâîãî áàëàíñà, íî è äëÿ ðåøåíèÿ äîïîëíèòåëüíûõ “êîððåêòèðóþùèõ” çàäà÷, ñâÿçàííûõ ñ ïàäåíèåì öåí íà òîâàðû ýêñïîðòà â ãîäû êðèçèñà âíåøíåãî äîëãà.
Âàëþòíàÿ ïîëèòèêà äåéñòâèòåëüíî ïðèâåëà ê ðîñòó ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1).  ÷àñòíîñòè, Áðàçèëèè óäàëîñü äîñòèãíóòü â ïåðèîä 1982-84 ãã. 30% ðîñòà ýêñïîðòà è 30% ñîêðàùåíèÿ èìïîðòà çà ñ÷åò áîëåå ÷åì 40% ðåàëüíîé äåâàëüâàöèè âàëþòû. Èçìåðåííûå â ïåðèîä ñ 1973 ã. ïî 1992 ã. êîýôôèöåíòû êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó ðåàëüíûìè îáìåííûìè êóðñàìè íàöèîíàëüíûõ âàëþò è âåëè÷èíîé ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà ñîñòàâèëè: Áîëèâèÿ (-0,21), Áðàçèëèÿ (-0,83), Âåíåñóýëà (-0,31),
×èëè (-0,26) è Àðãåíòèíà (-0,67). Íàèáîëüøèå ïî àáñîëþòíîé âåëè÷èíå êîýôôèöèåíòû êîððåëÿöèè ìåæäó ýòèìè äâóìÿ âåëè÷èíàìè íàáëþäàëèñü â ñòðàíàõ, â êîòîðûõ îñíîâíûå ýêñïîðòíûå îòðàñëè íàõîäèëèñü â ðóêàõ ÷àñòíîãî áèçíåñà: Áðàçèëèè è Àðãåíòèíå.
Ñ äðóãîé ñòîðîíû, ïðîâîäèâøàÿñÿ ïîëèòèêà ñíèæåíèÿ ðåàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè íàöèîíàëüíûõ âàëþò âûçâàëà ðîñò èíôëÿöèè.  óñëîâèÿõ Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè îñíîâíûìè êàíàëàìè ïåðåäà÷è èíôëÿöèîííûõ èìïóëüñîâ îò äåâàëüâàöèè â òå ãîäû ÿâëÿëèñü: 1999

197

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

1) Óäîðîæàíèå èìïîðòíîé ïðîäóêöèè, óñèëåííîå óâåëè÷åíèåì òàìîæåííûõ ïîøëèí è óæåñòî÷åíèåì íåòàðèôíûõ îãðàíè÷åíèé. Âëèÿíèå îáåñöåíåíèÿ âàëþòû íà óðîâåíü öåí çàâèñèò, ïðåæäå âñåãî, îò öåíîâîé ýëàñòè÷íîñòè ñïðîñà íà èìïîðòèðóåìûå òîâàðû è óñëóãè.
2) Óâåëè÷åíèå äåíåæíîé ìàññû ïîñðåäñòâîì “ìîíåòèçàöèè” âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé ïî âíåøíåòîðãîâûì êàíàëàì. Èíôëÿöèîííîå âëèÿíèå ýòîãî ôàêòîðà áûëî ñëàáåå â ñòðàíàõ ñ ïðåîáëàäàíèåì ãîñóäàðñòâåííîãî ýêñïîðòà, â êîòîðûõ áîëüøàÿ ÷àñòü âàëþòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé øëà íåïîñðåäñòâåííî â áþäæåò.
3) Óâåëè÷åíèå äîëè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, íàïðàâëÿåìûõ íà îáñëóæèâàíèå âíåøíåãî äîëãà, ïîñêîëüêó äåâàëüâàöèÿ óâåëè÷èâàåò âíóòðåííèé ýêâèâàëåíò âàëþòíûõ çàòðàò.
Îòòîê êàïèòàëà âûçâàë êðèçèñ áàíêîâñêîé ñèñòåìû, êîòîðàÿ êàê îòìå÷àëîñü âûøå, èãðàëà ãëàâíóþ ðîëü â ïîñðåäíè÷åñòâå ìåæäó èíîñòðàííûìè äîíîðàìè êàïèòàëà è åãî ìåñòíûìè ïîëó÷àòåëÿìè. Áàíêðîòñòâî ðÿäà êðóïíûõ ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ áàíêîâ â 1982-1983 ãã. ñíèçèëî óðîâåíü äîñòóïíûõ äëÿ èíâåñòèðîâàíèÿ ñáåðåæåíèé è ïðèâåëî ê ðîñòó “äîëëàðèçàöèè” äåíåæíîãî îáðàùåíèÿ. Äîëëàð ÑØÀ â ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàíàõ ñòàë èñïîëüçîâàòüñÿ íå òîëüêî êàê ñðåäñòâî íàêîïëåíèÿ, íî çà÷àñòóþ è êàê ìåðà ñòîèìîñòè [20]. “Äîëëàðèçàöèÿ” â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü âûçâàëà ñîêðàùåíèå ñïðîñà íà íàöèîíàëüíóþ âàëþòó è ðîñò öåí, ïðèâåäÿ ê òîìó, ÷òî â ñòðàíàõ ñ âûñîêîé èíôëÿöèåé ñïðîñ íà äåíüãè ñòàë çíà÷èòåëüíûì îáðàçîì çàâèñåòü îò èçìåíåíèÿ êóðñà äîëëàðà.
Cóùåñòâîâàíèå ïîäîáíîé çàâèñèìîñòè ïîäòâåðæäàåòñÿ ðåçóëüòàòàìè ýêîíîìåòðè÷åñêîãî àíàëèçà. Äëÿ Áîëèâèè è Áðàçèëèè - ñòðàí, â êîòîðûõ íàáëþäàëàñü âûñîêàÿ èíôëÿöèÿ, - â óðàâíåíèè ñïðîñà íà äåíüãè âèäà:
(2)

lnMt/Pt = a0 + a1lnYt + a2lnRt + a3St,

ãäå Mt - âåëè÷èíà àãðåãàòà Ì2, Pt - óðîâåíü öåí (ïî ÈÏÖ), Yt - ÂÂÏ â íåèçìåííûõ öåíàõ, Rt - ñðåäíÿÿ íîìèíàëüíàÿ äîõîäíîñòü äåïîçèòîâ â ìåñòíîé âàëþòå,
St - äîõîäíîñòü âëîæåíèé â íàëè÷íûå äîëëàðû ÑØÀ (ïåðèîä íàáëþäåíèé: 19671996 ãã.), êîýôôèöèåíò ïðè äîõîäíîñòè âëîæåíèé â äîëëàð ÑØÀ îêàçàëñÿ çíà÷èìûì, â òî âðåìÿ êàê äëÿ Âåíåñóýëû - ñòðàíû ñ îòíîñèòåëüíî íèçêîé äëÿ ðåãèîíà èíôëÿöèåé - îí îêàçàëñÿ íåçíà÷èìûì (äëÿ êîýôôèöèåíòà ïðè íîìèíàëüíîé äîõîäíîñòè äåïîçèòîâ íàáëþäàåòñÿ îáðàòíàÿ ñèòóàöèÿ).
Òàáëèöà 2.
Ðåçóëüòàòû ýêîíîìåòðè÷åñêîãî àíàëèçà
Êîýôôèöèåíòû
óðàâíåíèÿ a0 a1 a2 a3
R^2
Íîðìèðîâàííûé R^2
F-ñòàòèñòèêà
Êîýôôèöèåíò Äàðáèíà Óîòñîíà
*)

Áîëèâèÿ
-5,52
(0,53)*)
2,64
(0,23)
0,12
(0,07)
-0,003
(0,001)
0,85
0,83
50,1

Ñòðàíû
Áðàçèëèÿ
-1,49
(0,29)
1,04
(0,17)
-0,07
(0,05)
0,04
(0,01)
0,99
0,98
56,7

Âåíåñóýëà
-0,13
(0,04)
3,11
(0,37)
0,26
(0,11)
0,01
(0,11)
0,86
0,85
55,2

0,47

0,82

0,88

 ñêîáêàõ óêàçàíû ñòàíäàðòíûå îòêëîíåíèÿ.

198

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

¹2

Îáðàùàþò íà ñåáÿ âíèìàíèå îáðàòíûå çíàêè êîýôôèöèåíòîâ ïðè äîõîäíîñòè âëîæåíèé â äîëëàð ÑØÀ â óðàâíåíèè (2) äëÿ Áîëèâèè è Áðàçèëèè. Äëÿ
Áîëèâèè îòðèöàòåëüíûé çíàê êîýôôèöèåíòà ìîæåò áûòü îáúÿñíåí òåì, ÷òî íàñåëåíèå ïðåäïî÷èòàëî õðàíèòü ñâîè ñáåðåæåíèÿ â âèäå íàëè÷íîé âàëþòû [20]. Ïîëîæèòåëüíûé çíàê êîýôôèöèåíòà â ñëó÷àå Áðàçèëèè îáúÿñíÿåòñÿ òåì, ÷òî çíà÷èòåëüíàÿ ÷àñòü äîëëàðîâûõ âëîæåíèé áûëà ñîñðåäîòî÷åíà â áàíêàõ (â Ì2 âêëþ÷åíû äåïîçèòû â èíîñòðàííîé âàëþòå) è, ñëåäîâàòåëüíî, ÷åì áóäåò áîëüøå äîõîäíîñòü ýòèõ âëîæåíèé, òåì áîëüøå áóäåò ñïðîñ íàñåëåíèÿ íà ýòîò àãðåãàò. Ýòî ïðåäïîëîæåíèå ïîäòâåðæäàåòñÿ òåì, ÷òî êîãäà âìåñòî àãðåãàòà Ì2 â óðàâíåíèå (2) äëÿ Áðàçèëèè ïîäñòàâëÿëè àãðåãàò Ì1, òî êîýôôèöèåíò ïðè äîõîäíîñòè âàëþòíûõ âëîæåíèé îêàçûâàëñÿ îòðèöàòåëüíûì ïî çíàêó.
Âàæíîé ÷åðòîé æèçíè ñòðàí ðåãèîíà, âëèÿâøåé íà ïðîâîäèâøóþñÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ ïîëèòèêó è èíôëÿöèîííûå îæèäàíèÿ, ñòàëî óâåëè÷åíèå ñîöèàëüíîé íàïðÿæåííîñòè â îáùåñòâå, âûðàæàâøååñÿ â óâåëè÷åíèè ñîöèàëüíîãî íåðàâåíñòâà, ðîñòå çàáàñòîâî÷íîãî äâèæåíèÿ, âîëíåíèÿõ, ÷àñòûõ ñìåíàõ ïðàâèòåëüñòâ è âîåííûõ ïåðåâîðîòàõ.
Ñëåäóåò ïîä÷åðêíóòü, ÷òî âîçäåéñòâèå âíåøíåãî äîëãà íà ýêîíîìèêó è òÿæåñòü êðèçèñíûõ ÿâëåíèé çàâèñåëè âî ìíîãîì îò òîãî, êòî ãîñóäàðñòâî èëè ÷àñòíûé ñåêòîð ÿâëÿëñÿ ïîëó÷àòåëåì äîõîäà îò ýêñïîðòà. Ñîñðåäîòî÷åííîñòü îñíîâíûõ ýêñïîðòíûõ îòðàñëåé â ðóêàõ ãîñóäàðñòâà ïðåäïîëàãàåò, ÷òî ãîñóäàðñòâî ñïîñîáíî îäíîâðåìåííî ñîêðàòèòü áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò è ïðîèçâîäèòü ïëàòåæè ïî âíåøíåìó äîëãó çà ñ÷åò ìåð ïî óâåëè÷åíèþ ýêñïîðòíûõ äîõîäîâ (íàïðèìåð, ïóòåì äåâàëüâàöèè), à ñòàáèëüíîñòü ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ôèíàíñîâ çàâèñèò îò ñïðîñà íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì òîâàðíîì ðûíêå.  òàêèõ ñòðàíàõ êàê Ìåêñèêà, ×èëè, Áîëèâèÿ èëè Âåíåñóýëà, ãäå ãîñóäàðñòâî êîíòðîëèðîâàëî îñíîâíûå ýêñïîðòíûå ðåñóðñû, ñóùåñòâîâàëà ïðÿìàÿ çàâèñèìîñòü ìåæäó ñïîñîáíîñòüþ ýêîíîìèêè ñòðàíû îáñëóæèâàòü âíåøíèé äîëã è âîçìîæíîñòüþ ãîñóäàðñòâà ïîêðûâàòü ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå ðàñõîäû: óâåëè÷åíèå ýêñïîðòà ïðèâîäèëî îäíîâðåìåííî ê óëó÷øåíèþ ïëàòåæíîãî áàëàíñà è ñîêðàùåíèþ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà. Óâåëè÷åíèå áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà â ñâîþ î÷åðåäü áûëî ñâÿçàíî ñ ïàäåíèåì îòíîñèòåëüíûõ öåí ýêñïîðòà
(íåôòè - â Ìåêñèêå, Áîëèâèè, Âåíåñóýëå, ìåäè - â ×èëè).
Äëÿ ñòðàí, â êîòîðûõ îñíîâíàÿ ÷àñòü ýêñïîðòíûõ ðåñóðñîâ áûëà ñîñðåäîòî÷åíà â ðóêàõ ÷àñòíîãî ñåêòîðà (Àðãåíòèíà, Áðàçèëèÿ è ìíîãèå äðóãèå ñòðàíû
Þæíîé è Öåíòðàëüíîé Àìåðèêè), óâåëè÷åíèå ýêñïîðòíûõ äîõîäîâ íå îáÿçàòåëüíî îòðàæàëîñü íà ñîñòîÿíèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ôèíàíñîâ: äåôèöèò âàëþòíûõ ñðåäñòâ ó ãîñóäàðñòâà ñîñóùåñòâîâàë ñ èçáûòêîì âàëþòíûõ ðåñóðñîâ ó ÷àñòíîãî ñåêòîðà.  ýòèõ óñëîâèÿõ ãîñóäàðñòâî âûíóæäåíî ïðèîáðåòàòü âàëþòíûå ðåñóðñû ïðîèíôëÿöèîííûìè ñïîñîáàìè: ïóòåì âûïóñêà öåííûõ áóìàã èëè äåíåæíîé ýìèññèè. Ýòè ðàçëè÷èÿ â õàðàêòåðå ñîáñòâåííîñòè íà îñíîâíûå ýêñïîðòíûå ðåñóðñû îáóñëîâèëè è ðàçëè÷èÿ â èíôëÿöèîííîì ýôôåêòå êðèçèñà âíåøíåãî äîëãà - äëÿ ñòðàí ýòîé ãðóïïû êðèçèñ âíåøíåãî äîëãà õàðàêòåðèçîâàëñÿ îáû÷íî áîëåå âûñîêîé èíôëÿöèåé (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1).
Òàêèì îáðàçîì, âëèÿíèå êðèçèñà âíåøíåãî äîëãà íà ýêîíîìèêè ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè èìåëî êîìïëåêñíûé õàðàêòåð. Óìåíüøåíèå ñòîèìîñòè ýêñïîðòà ñòðàí ðåãèîíà è ñâÿçàííûé ñ îáñëóæèâàíèåì âíåøíåãî äîëãà ïåðåâîä ðåñóðñîâ çà ðóáåæ âûçâàëè ïàäåíèå óðîâíÿ ïðîèçâîäñòâà. Âíåøíèé äîëã ïðèâåë â äåéñòâèå ìåõàíèçìû êàê èíôëÿöèè ñïðîñà, òàê è èíôëÿöèè èçäåðæåê, îêàçûâàÿ âîçäåéñòâèå íà òàêèå ïàðàìåòðû êàê äåíåæíîå ïðåäëîæåíèå, áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò,

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èíôëÿöèîííûå îæèäàíèÿ. Òÿæåñòü ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà ñóùåñòâåííûì îáðàçîì çàâèñåëà îò òîãî, êòî ãîñóäàðñòâî èëè ÷àñòíûé ñåêòîð ÿâëÿëñÿ ñîáñòâåííèêîì îñíîâíûõ ýêñïîðòíûõ îòðàñëåé.

3. Àíòèêðèçèñíûå ïðîãðàììû. Ïðè÷èíû óñïåõà èëè íåóäà÷è ñòàáèëèçàöèîííûõ ìåðîïðèÿòèé
Íåîáõîäèìîñòü ðåøåíèÿ ïðîáëåìû âíåøíåãî äîëãà ïðèâåëî ê îòñðî÷êå â ïðîâåäåíèè øèðîêîìàñøòàáíûõ àíòèèíôëÿöèîííûõ ïðîãðàìì. Îêàçàíèå ìåæäóíàðîäíîé ïîìîùè ñòðàíàì ðåãèîíà (îñóùåñòâëåíèå ïðîãðàìì êðåäèòîâàíèÿ ñî ñòîðîíû èíîñòðàííûõ ãîñóäàðñòâ è ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ èíñòèòóòîâ, ïðîãðàìì ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè âíåøíåãî äîëãà è ò. ä.), âîññòàíîâëåíèå ðàâíîâåñèÿ ïëàòåæíîãî áàëàíñà ïðèâåëè ê íåêîòîðîìó îñëàáëåíèþ äîëãîâîãî ïðåññà â êîíöå 80-õ ãîäîâ è ñîçäàëè áëàãîïðèÿòíûå âîçìîæíîñòè äëÿ ïðîâåäåíèÿ ìàñøòàáíûõ àíòèêðèçèñíûõ ïðîãðàìì.
Íåîáõîäèìî îòìåòèòü, ÷òî ïåðâàÿ óñïåøíàÿ ñòàáèëèçàöèîííàÿ ïðîãðàììà áûëà îñóùåñòâëåíà â ×èëè åùå â êîíöå 70-ûõ ãîäîâ (1976 - 1980 ãã.). ×èëè îäíà èç ïåðâûõ èç ñòðàí ðåãèîíà ñòîëêíóëàñü ñ ñèñòåìíûì êðèçèñîì, êîãäà â ðåçóëüòàòå ïàäåíèÿ ìèðîâûõ öåí íà ìåäü, ðîñòà çàòðàò íà ýíåðãîíîñèòåëè, ñâÿçàííîãî ñ ïîñëåäñòâèÿìè “íåôòÿíîãî êðèçèñà”, ïðîèçîøåë ðåçêèé ðîñò èíôëÿöèè è ïàäåíèå ïðîèçâîäñòâà (â ïåðèîä ñ 1972 ã. ïî 1976 ã. ïîòðåáèòåëüñêèå öåíû âûðîñëè â 231 ðàç, à ÂÂÏ ñîêðàòèëñÿ íà 15%). Ïðàâèòåëüñòâî, ðåàãèðóÿ íà íàðàñòàíèå êðèçèñíûõ ÿâëåíèé, áûëî âûíóæäåíî ïîéòè íà øèðîêîìàñøòàáíûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ðåôîðìû.  ×èëè áûëà ïðîâåäåíà êëàññè÷åñêàÿ îðòîäîêñàëüíàÿ ðåôîðìà, çàêëþ÷àâøàÿñÿ â áàëàíñèðîâêå áþäæåòà, îãðàíè÷åíèè êðåäèòíîé ýêñïàíñèè, ñòðóêòóðíûõ ïðåîáðàçîâàíèÿõ ýêîíîìèêè (ïðèâàòèçàöèÿ, ëèáåðàëèçàöèÿ âíåøíåé òîðãîâëè, îòêðûòèå ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ äëÿ èíîñòðàííîãî êàïèòàëà) è ââåäåíèè âàëþòíîãî ðåæèìà òèïà “ñrawling peg”, ôèêñèðóþùåãî òåìïû îáåñöåíåíèÿ íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû. ( èþíå 1979 ã. êóðñ ÷èëèéñêîãî ïåñî áûë æåñòêî çàôèêñèðîâàí ïî îòíîøåíèþ ê äîëëàðó. Ýòî ïðèâåëî ê ðîñòó ðåàëüíîãî êóðñà ïåñî è íàðóøåíèþ óñëîâèé âíåøíåé òîðãîâëè, ÷òî âûçâàëî ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé ñïàä è äåçèíôëÿöèþ â 198182 ãã.  1982 ã. ×èëè âåðíóëàñü ê ðåæèìó “ñrawling peg” è îïðåäåëåíèþ êóðñà ïåñî îòíîñèòåëüíî âàëþòíîé êîðçèíû, ñîñòàâëåííîé ñ ó÷åòîì âíåøíåòîðãîâîãî îáîðîòà ñòðàíû). Âàæíûìè ýëåìåíòàìè óñïåõà ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ïðåîáðàçîâàíèé ñòàëè ïðîãðàììà ðàöèîíàëèçàöèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, ïîçâîëèâøàÿ ñíèçèòü íàëîãè, è ìàññîâûé ïðèòîê èíîñòðàííûõ ñðåäñòâ êàê ïî ãîñóäàðñòâåííûì, òàê è ïî
÷àñòíûì êàíàëàì, ñîñòàâëÿâøèé â ïåðèîä 1976-81 ãã. â ñðåäíåì 12-13% ÂÂÏ
(Ïðèëîæåíèå 1).
 ðåçóëüòàòå, íåñìîòðÿ íà íåáëàãîïðèÿòíóþ âíåøíåýêîíîìè÷åñêóþ ñèòóàöèþ (ðîñò öåí íà íåôòü è 50% ïàäåíèå öåí íà ìåäü), áåçðàáîòèöà â ïåðèîä ñ
1976 ã. ïî 1980 ã. ñîêðàòèëàñü ñ 15% äî 10%, ñðåäíåãîäîâîé òåìï èíôëÿöèè ñíèçèëñÿ ñ 300% (1972-76 ãã.) äî 44% (1976- 80 ãã.), à òåìï ïðèðîñòà ðåàëüíîãî ÂÂÏ çà ïåðèîä ñîñòàâèë â ñðåäíåì 7,5% â ãîä (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1). Áîëüøîå âíèìàíèå â õîäå ðåôîðì áûëî óäåëåíî äèâåðñèôèêàöèè ýêñïîðòà: ïîìèìî òðàäèöèîííîé äîáû÷è ìåäè ×èëè ñòàëà ðàçâèâàòü ýêñïîðòíîå ñåëüñêîå õîçÿéñòâî, ðûáîëîâñòâî è ìàøèíîñòðîåíèå. Ðîñò ýêîíîìèêè è äîõîäîâ íàñåëåíèÿ ïîçâîëèëè ãîñóäàðñòâó ñîêðàòèòü îáúåì âíåøíèõ çàèìñòâîâàíèé è çàôèêñèðîâàòü îáúåì âíåøíåãî äîëãà íà

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óðîâíå 19-22 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, ÷òî ïðè ñîïóòñòâóþùåì ðîñòå ñòîèìîñòè ýêñïîðòà è
ÂÂÏ ïðèâåëî ê ñîêðàùåíèþ ñîîòíîøåíèÿ äîëã /ÂÂÏ ñ 125% â 1985 ã. äî 44% â
1992 ã. è ê ñíèæåíèþ ñîîòíîøåíèÿ çàòðàò íà îáñëóæèâàíèå âíåøíåãî äîëãà ê ýêñïîðòó ñ 43% äî 21%. Ýòî òàêæå ïîçâîëèëî ñòðàíå äîñòàòî÷íî áåçáîëåçíåííî ïåðåæèòü îòòîê êàïèòàëà ñ ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà â ïåðèîä ñ 1983 ã. ïî 1988 ã.
Ïðèìåðíî â òå æå ñðîêè áûëà ïðåäïðèíÿòà ïîïûòêà ðåôîðìû è â Àðãåíòèíå. Ïëàí ñòàáèëèçàöèè êîíöà 70-ûõ ãîäîâ ïðåäóñìàòðèâàë îòìåíó êîíòðîëÿ öåí, ëèáåðàëèçàöèþ ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà, ââåäåíèå ôèêñèðîâàííîãî îáìåííîãî êóðñà (â
1978 ã. ôèêñèðîâàííûé îáìåííûé êóðñ áûë çàìåíåí íà ðåæèì òèïà “crawling peg”, íî âñå ðàâíî òåìï îáåñöåíåíèÿ ïåñî îòñòàâàë îò òåìïà èíôëÿöèè), ïðè ýòîì áûëè ñîõðàíåíû èìïîðòíûå îãðàíè÷åíèÿ è âûñîêèé áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò (çà ïåðèîä ñ 1976 ã. ïî 1981 ã. îí â ñðåäíåì ñîñòàâèë îêîëî 5% ÂÂÏ). Ìîíåòèçàöèÿ áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà âñëåäñòâèå âûïóñêà êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ îáëèãàöèé è îòñóòñòâèå æåñòêîãî êîíòðîëÿ çà ðîñòîì êðåäèòà íå ïîçâîëèëè çíà÷èòåëüíî ñîêðàòèòü èíôëÿöèþ (ñ 440% â 1976 ã. èíôëÿöèÿ áûëà ñîêðàùåíà äî 100% â 1980-81 ãã.). Âàæíûì ôàêòîðîì ïðèðîñòà äåíåæíîé ìàññû ñòàë ïðèòîê èíîñòðàííûõ ñïåêóëÿòèâíûõ êàïèòàëîâ íà ôèíàíñîâûé ðûíîê (1978-1979 ãã.), ïðèâëå÷åííûõ âûñîêîé âàëþòíîé äîõîäíîñòüþ âñëåäñòâèå ðîñòà ðåàëüíîãî îáìåííîãî êóðñà ïåñî [6, 19].
Ðîñò ðåàëüíîãî êóðñà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû â èòîãå (1980-1981 ãã.) âûçâàë ñíèæåíèå ÷èñòîãî ýêñïîðòà, à îæèäàíèå äåâàëüâàöèè - ïàíè÷åñêîå áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà.
×òîáû ïðåäîòâðàòèòü ïîòåðþ çîëîòî-âàëþòíûõ ðåçåðâîâ, ïðàâèòåëüñòâî Àðãåíòèíû áûëî âûíóæäåíî â 1981 ã. äåâàëüâèðîâàòü ïåñî è ââåñòè îãðàíè÷åíèÿ íà äâèæåíèå êàïèòàëà.
Âòîðîé êðóïíûé ñòàáèëèçàöèîííûé ïëàí - ïëàí “Àóñòðàëü” - áûë îäîáðåí ïðàâèòåëüñòâîì Àðãåíòèíû â 1985 ã. Íàöèîíàëüíàÿ âàëþòà áûëà äåâàëüâèðîâàíà è ãèáêî ïðèâÿçàíà ê äîëëàðó ÑØÀ. Áûë ââåäåí êîíòðîëü çà öåíàìè è çàðàáîòíîé ïëàòîé. Äåôèöèò ôåäåðàëüíîãî áþäæåòà áûë ñîêðàùåí ñ 12% äî 2,5% ÂÂÏ.
Îäíàêî âûñîêèå âûïëàòû ïî âíåøíåìó äîëãó, íèçêèå ýêñïîðòíûå äîõîäû (ñîîòíîøåíèå çàòðàò ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ âíåøíåãî äîëãà ê ýêñïîðòó â 1985-86 ãã. â Àðãåíòèíå ñîñòàâëÿëè ñâûøå 80%) è íåñïîñîáíîñòü ïðàâèòåëüñòâà äîãîâîðèòüñÿ ñ êðåäèòîðàìè îòíîñèòåëüíî ïàðàìåòðîâ ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè âíåøíåãî äîëãà âûíóäèëè ïðàâèòåëüñòâî Àðãåíòèíû óâåëè÷èòü ðàñõîäíóþ ÷àñòü áþäæåòà, à ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå äåôèöèòà ñ ïîìîùüþ êðåäèòîâ Öåíòðàëüíîãî Áàíêà ïðèâåëî ê ðîñòó èíôëÿöèè.  èòîãå ê ñåðåäèíå 1986 ã. áûë ñíÿò öåíòðàëèçîâàííûé êîíòðîëü çà öåíàìè è ïîâûøåíà çàðàáîòíàÿ ïëàòà, à â íà÷àëå 1987 ã. ïðîâåäåíà î÷åðåäíàÿ äåâàëüâàöèÿ.
Ïî÷òè îäíîâðåìåííî ñ ïðîâàëîì ïëàíà “Àóñòðàëü” áûëà îñóùåñòâëåíà óñïåøíàÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ ðåôîðìà â Áîëèâèè. Ïðîãðàììà ðåôîðì âêëþ÷àëà ÷åòûðå îñíîâíûõ ïóíêòà: 1) äåâàëüâàöèÿ íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû è ïîñëåäóþùèé ïåðåõîä ê óïðàâëÿåìîìó ôëîóòó â ñî÷åòàíèè ñî ñâîáîäíîé êîíâåðòàöèåé; 2) ñîêðàùåíèå áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà ÷åðåç ïîâûøåíèå öåí â îáùåñòâåííîì ñåêòîðå (óâåëè÷åíèå öåí íà òîïëèâî, êîììóíàëüíûå óñëóãè è òðàíñïîðò ïîçâîëèëî â êîðîòêèå ñðîêè óâåëè÷èòü ãîñóäàðñòâåííûå äîõîäû íà íåñêîëüêî ïðîöåíòîâ ÂÂÏ) è çàìîðàæèâàíèå çàðàáîòíîé ïëàòû ó ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ñëóæàùèõ; 3) ðàñøèðåíèå íàëîãîâîé áàçû è ïðèâàòèçàöèÿ (áîëèâèéñêàÿ ïðèâàòèçàöèÿ ïðåäóñìàòðèâàëà íå ïðîäàæó ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé äîëè â ïðåäïðèÿòèÿõ, à óâåëè÷åíèå êàïèòàëà ïóòåì äîïîëíèòåëüíûõ ÷àñòíûõ èíâåñòèöèé); 4) ïîäïèñàíèå ñîãëàøåíèé ñ ÌÂÔ è Ïàðèæñêèì êëóáîì î ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè äîëãà. Ïÿòîé, íåäåêëàðèðóåìîé ÷àñòüþ ïðîãðàììû

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ðåôîðì áûëî ââåäåíèå ìîðàòîðèÿ, íåñìîòðÿ íà íåäîâîëüñòâî ñî ñòîðîíû ÌÂÔ, íà óïëàòó ïðèíöèïàëà è ïðîöåíòîâ ïî äîëãó ÷àñòíûì êðåäèòîðàì.
Íåñìîòðÿ íà çíà÷èòåëüíóþ äåâàëüâàöèþ è óâåëè÷åíèå öåí â îáùåñòâåííîì ñåêòîðå, îáùèé óðîâåíü öåí ñòàáèëèçèðîâàëñÿ ïî÷òè ìãíîâåííî. Ïðè ýòîì ïîòåðè äëÿ ðåàëüíîãî ïðîèçâîäñòâà áûëè îòíîñèòåëüíî íåáîëüøèìè - ïàäåíèå ÂÂÏ çà
1996 ã. ñîñòàâèëî 2,5% (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1). Ïî ìíåíèþ Ñàêñà [20], îñíîâíîé ïðè÷èíîé áûñòðîãî ñíèæåíèÿ òåìïà èíôëÿöèè ïîñëå ñòàáèëèçàöèè îáìåííîãî êóðñà ñòàëà âûñîêàÿ ñòåïåíü “äîëëàðèçàöèè” ýêîíîìèêè. Îí òàêæå îòìå÷àë, ÷òî ñòåïåíü äîâåðèÿ íàñåëåíèÿ ê ïðàâèòåëüñòâåííûì ìåðàì áûëà äîëãîå âðåìÿ îòíîñèòåëüíî íåâûñîêîé (ðîñò ðåàëüíûõ äåíåæíûõ áàëàíñîâ ïðîèñõîäèë î÷åíü ìåäëåííî, ÷òî ñâèäåòåëüñòâîâàëî î ñîõðàíåíèè â îáùåñòâå âûñîêèõ èíôëÿöèîííûõ îæèäàíèé).
Óñïåøíûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ðåôîðìû, îñóùåñòâëåííûå ñòðàíàìè Ëàòèíñêîé
Àìåðèêè (Àðãåíòèíà, Áðàçèëèÿ, Ïåðó) â íà÷àëå 90-ûõ, ïðîõîäèëè â íåñêîëüêî äðóãèõ ïî ñðàâíåíèþ ñî ñòàáèëèçàöèîííûìè ïðîãðàììàìè 80-ûõ ãîäîâ óñëîâèÿõ.
Âàæíûì ýëåìåíòîì ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ñòàáèëèçàöèè â Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêå áûëî âîçîáíîâëåíèå ïðèòîêà èíîñòðàííûõ êàïèòàëîâ â ñòðàíû ðåãèîíà â êîíöå 80-õ - íà÷àëå 90-õ ãîäîâ, âûçâàííîå ðåöåññèåé â ðàçâèòûõ ñòðàíàõ, ñíèæåíèåì ìåæäóíàðîäíûõ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê è óïðîùåíèåì ïðîöåäóð, ðåãóëèðóþùèõ äâèæåíèå êàïèòàëà â ÑØÀ è Çàïàäíîé Åâðîïå. Ïðèòîê êàïèòàëîâ â Ëàòèíñêóþ Àìåðèêó âûðîñ ñ 1987 ã. ïî 1991 ã. ñ 8 äî 40 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ â ãîä (áîëüøàÿ ÷àñòü ïðèòîêà êàïèòàëîâ ïðèøëàñü íà äîëþ Ìåêñèêè, Àðãåíòèíû, Áðàçèëèè è ×èëè).  îòëè÷èå îò ñèòóàöèè â 70-ûå ãîäû, êîãäà âíåøíèå ñðåäñòâà èñïîëüçîâàëèñü ãëàâíûì îáðàçîì íà ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, îñíîâíûìè çàåìùèêàìè â
90-ûå ãîäû âûñòóïèëè ÷àñòíûå êîìïàíèè [4].
Êàê ïîêàçûâàþò ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå äàííûå ÌÂÔ, ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà ïðèâåë ê îæèâëåíèþ ýêîíîìèêè (òåìï ïðèðîñòà ðåàëüíîãî ÂÂÏ â öåëîì ïî ðåãèîíó âûðîñ ñ
- 0,1% â ãîä â 1987 ã. äî 3% â ãîä â 1991 ã.), ñîêðàùåíèþ óðîâíÿ ôèñêàëüíîãî äåôèöèòà (ñ 5,7% äî 0,7% çà òîò æå ïåðèîä), ñíèæåíèþ ñîîòíîøåíèÿ âíåøíèé äîëã/ýêñïîðò è ðîñòó ñîîòíîøåíèÿ îôèöèàëüíûå ðåçåðâû/èìïîðò, à òàêæå ïîâûøåíèþ ðåàëüíîé ñòîèìîñòè âàëþò ñòðàí ðåãèîíà. Âàæíûì çàëîãîì óñïåõà ðåôîðì è îäíîé èç ïðè÷èí ïðèòîêà êàïèòàëà ñòàëî ïðîâåäåíèå ïîä êîíòðîëåì ÌÂÔ ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè äîëãà ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí, ÷òî íàðÿäó ñ ðîñòîì ýêñïîðòíûõ ïîñòóïëåíèé ïîçâîëèëî â ñðåäíåì ñîêðàòèòü ñîîòíîøåíèå çàòðàò ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ âíåøíåãî äîëãà ê ýêñïîðòó ñ 45% â 1985 ã. äî 25% â 1993 ã. ïðè òîì, ÷òî âíåøíèé äîëã ñòðàí ðåãèîíà â íîìèíàëüíîì âûðàæåíèè âûðîñ çà òîò æå ïåðèîä ñ
380 äî 490 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ ÑØÀ.
Êëþ÷åâóþ ðîëü â óñïåõå àðãåíòèíñêîé ïðîãðàììû ðåôîðì 1991 ã. ñûãðàëà ñòàáèëèçàöèÿ îáìåííîãî êóðñà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû è äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ
÷åðåç ñèñòåìó “currency board”, óñòàíàâëèâàþùóþ ñòðîãîå ñîîòíîøåíèå ìåæäó ïðèðîñòîì äåíåæíîé ìàññû è óâåëè÷åíèåì çîëîòî-âàëþòíûõ ðåçåðâîâ. Äðóãèìè ñîñòàâíûìè ÷àñòÿìè ïëàíà ñòàëè: ïðîâåäåíèå ïðèâàòèçàöèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé ñîáñòâåííîñòè, ñíÿòèå òîðãîâûõ îãðàíè÷åíèé è îãðàíè÷åíèé íà äâèæåíèå êàïèòàëà, óâåëè÷åíèå ïîòðåáèòåëüñêèõ íàëîãîâ (íàëîãà íà äîáàâëåííóþ ñîáñòâåííîñòü è ïîäîõîäíîãî íàëîãà) ïðè îäíîâðåìåííîì ñîêðàùåíèè êîðïîðàòèâíûõ íàëîãîâ, ðîñò ñîáèðàåìîñòè íàëîãîâ è ñíèæåíèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ, ÷òî â ñîâîêóïíîñòè ïîçâîëèëî ëèêâèäèðîâàòü áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò. Çà êîðîòêèé ñðîê áûëè äîñòèãíóòû ïîðàçèòåëüíûå óñïåõè: áûëà çíà÷èòåëüíî ñíèæåíà èíôëÿöèÿ, äîñòèãíóò ðîñò ïðîìûøëåííîãî ïðîèçâîäñòâà è îáåñïå÷åí çíà÷èòåëüíûé ïðèòîê

202

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

¹2

èíîñòðàííûõ êàïèòàëîâ (Ïðèëîæåíèå 1). Çà òîò æå ïåðèîä â ðåçóëüòàòå ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè âíåøíåãî äîëãà è êàïèòàëèçàöèè åãî ÷àñòè â õîäå ïðèâàòèçàöèè ïðàâèòåëüñòâó óäàëîñü ñîêðàòèòü âíåøíèé äîëã íà 10,4 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, à ñîîòíîøåíèå âíåøíèé äîëã/ÂÂÏ - ñ 45,5% äî 35%.
Îäíîé èç ïîñëåäíèõ â ðÿäó ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ðåôîðìû îñóùåñòâèëà Áðàçèëèÿ. Îò÷àñòè ýòî áûëî ñâÿçàíî ñ òåì, ÷òî åé óäàëîñü äîãîâîðèòüñÿ îá óñëîâèÿõ ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè âíåøíåãî äîëãà ïîçæå äðóãèõ. Áðàçèëüñêèå ðåôîðìû (ïëàí “Ðåàë”), íà÷àâøèå îñóùåñòâëÿòüñÿ ñ ñåðåäèíû 1994 ã., òàêæå â ñâîåì îñíîâàíèè èìåëè êëàññè÷åñêóþ îðòîäîêñàëüíóþ ñõåìó, çàêëþ÷àâøóþñÿ â ñòàáèëèçàöèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ôèíàíñîâ ÷åðåç óâåëè÷åíèå íàëîãîâûõ ñáîðîâ è ñîêðàùåíèè ðàñõîäîâ, ïðèâàòèçàöèè ãîñóäàðñòâåííîé ñîáñòâåííîñòè, äåâàëüâàöèè è ôèêñàöèè êóðñà íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû îòíîñèòåëüíî äîëëàðà, ëèáåðàëèçàöèè âíåøíåé òîðãîâëè, äåðåãóëÿöèè ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è ñîêðàùåíèè òåìïîâ ðîñòà äåíåæíîãî ïðåäëîæåíèÿ ïóòåì ïîääåðæàíèÿ âûñîêèõ ðåàëüíûõ ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê (÷òî ñòèìóëèðîâàëî ïðèòîê êàïèòàëà â ñòðàíó). Ïîìèìî îòìå÷åííûõ âûøå ìåðîïðèÿòèé ïðàâèòåëüñòâî îñóùåñòâëÿëî êîíòðîëü çà ðîñòîì çàðàáîòíîé ïëàòû â îáùåñòâåííîì ñåêòîðå (öåíîâîé êîíòðîëü íà òîâàðíîì ðûíêå ïðè ýòîì áûë ìèíèìàëüíûì). Áûëî ðåñòðóêòóðèçèðîâàíî îêîëî 35 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ äîëãà Áðàçèëèè ïåðåä ÷àñòíûìè èíîñòðàííûìè êðåäèòîðàìè. Ýòî ïîçâîëèëî ñîêðàòèòü âûïëàòû ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ äîëãà ñ 4% ÂÂÏ â 1993 ã. äî 2,5% â 1995 ã.  ðåçóëüòàòå ðåôîðì óäàëîñü äîñòàòî÷íî áûñòðî ñîêðàòèòü èíôëÿöèþ (ñ 50% â ìåñÿö â èþíå 1994 ã. äî ìåíåå 1% â ÿíâàðå 1996 ã.), õîòÿ óñêîðåíèÿ òåìïîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðîñòà ïðè ýòîì äîáèòüñÿ íå óäàëîñü è ñîõðàíèëñÿ äîñòàòî÷íî âûñîêèé áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò (ñâûøå 5% ÂÂÏ ñ ó÷åòîì äåôèöèòîâ ðåãèîíàëüíûõ áþäæåòîâ).
Òàêèì îáðàçîì, ñòàáèëèçàöèîííûå ïðîãðàììû, îñóùåñòâëåííûå â ñòðàíàõ ðåãèîíà, áûëè îðèåíòèðîâàíû íà ðåøåíèå òðåõ âçàèìîñâÿçàííûõ çàäà÷ - ðåãóëèðîâàíèå ñîâîêóïíîãî ñïðîñà, êîðåêòèðîâêó îòíîñèòåëüíûõ öåí è óïðàâëåíèå èíôëÿöèîííûìè îæèäàíèÿìè. Îñíîâíûìè ÷àñòÿìè äàííûõ ïðîãðàìì ÿâëÿëèñü ñîêðàùåíèå ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ è ðîñò íàëîãîâ, ëèáåðàëèçàöèÿ ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è âíåøíåé òîðãîâëè, ïðèâàòèçàöèÿ, äåâàëüâàöèÿ è ðàçëè÷íûå ôîðìû ôèêñàöèè îáìåííîãî êóðñà, à òàêæå óæåñòî÷åíèå äåíåæíî-êðåäèòíîé ïîëèòèêè. Áîëüøóþ ïîëîæèòåëüíóþ ðîëü â óñïåõå ïðîãðàìì ñûãðàëî äîñòèæåíèå äîãîâîðåííîñòåé ñ êðåäèòîðàìè, ïîçâîëèâøåé ñíèçèòü äîëãîâóþ íàãðóçêó íà áþäæåò.

Çàêëþ÷åíèå
Èçó÷åíèå îïûòà ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè óáåäèòåëüíî ïîêàçûâàåò, ÷òî ðîñò âíåøíåé çàäîëæåííîñòè íà îïðåäåëåííîì ýòàïå ìîæåò ñòàòü ïðè÷èíîé ñèñòåìíîãî ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà. Âûñîêèé âíåøíèé äîëã â óñëîâèÿõ îòòîêà êàïèòàëà ñ ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è ðîñòà ñòîèìîñòè ðåôèíàíñèðîâàíèÿ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ ìîæåò ïðèâåñòè ê óñêîðåíèþ èíôëÿöèè è ïàäåíèþ ïðîèçâîäñòâà. Âîçíèêíîâåíèå êðèçèñíîé ñèòóàöèè è åå òÿæåñòü ñóùåñòâåííûì îáðàçîì çàâèñÿò îò ñòðóêòóðû ýêîíîìèêè, ïðîèçâîäñòâà, ñòåïåíè ðàçâèòèÿ íàöèîíàëüíûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ ðûíêîâ è ïðèíàäëåæíîñòè âíåøíåãî äîëãà.
Ñëåäóåò îòìåòèòü, ÷òî íåñìîòðÿ íà ãåîãðàôè÷åñêóþ îòäàëåííîñòü Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè îò Ðîññèè è èñòîðè÷åñêóþ îòäàëåííîñòü îïèñûâàåìûõ â ñòàòüå ñîáûòèé îò òåêóùåãî ìîìåíòà, îïûò ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

203

ñòðàí â òîò ïåðèîä ÷ðåçâû÷àéíî âàæåí äëÿ ïîíèìàíèÿ ïðîöåññîâ, êîòîðûå ïðîèñõîäÿò èëè ìîãóò ïðîèçîéòè â ñîâðåìåííîé Ðîññèè.
Íàøà ñòðàíà ñåé÷àñ, êàê è ñòðàíû Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 80-ûå ãîäû, ñòîëêíóëàñü ñ ïðîáëåìîé îáñëóæèâàíèÿ âíåøíåãî äîëãà.  1999 ã. Ðîññèÿ äîëæíà âûïëàòèòü â ñ÷åò îáñëóæèâàíèÿ äîëãà îêîëî 17,5 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ, à â ïîñëåäóþùèå äâà ãîäà åùå ïðèìåðíî ïî 20 ìëðä. äîëëàðîâ. Ïðîáëåìó âçàèìîîòíîøåíèé ñòðàíû ñ èíîñòðàííûìè êðåäèòîðàìè óñóãóáëÿþò îòñóòñòâèå ñîãëàñèÿ ïî ïîâîäó ðåñòðóêòóðèçàöèè ÃÊÎ-ÎÔÇ, íåóðåãóëèðîâàííîñòü ïðîáëåìû çàäîëæåííîñòè ðîññèéñêèõ áàíêîâ ïî ôîðâàðäíûì êîíòðàêòàì, à òàêæå âîçíèêøèå ðàçíîãëàñèÿ ñ ÌÂÔ ïî ïîâîäó âûäåëåíèÿ ðàíåå ñîãëàñîâàííûõ òðàíøåé. Åñëè íå áóäåò äîñòèãíóòà äîãîâîðåííîñòü ñ êðåäèòîðàìè, Ðîññèÿ âñòàíåò ïåðåä âûáîðîì îáúÿâëÿòü ñóâåðåííûé äåôîëò èëè íàïðàâëÿòü îãðîìíûå ðåñóðñû íà öåëè îáñëóæèâàíèÿ äîëãà. Åñëè áóäåò âûáðàí âòîðîé âàðèàíò, òî ñëåäóþùèì âîïðîñîì ñòàíåò, êàê ôèíàíñèðîâàòü ðàñõîäû ïî îáñëóæèâàíèþ äîëãà: ïóòåì óâåëè÷åíèÿ íàëîãîâ è ñîêðàùåíèÿ íåäîëãîâûõ ðàñõîäîâ ãîñóäàðñòâà èëè ïóòåì ñåíüîðàæà.  ýòîì ïëàíå ñðàâíåíèå ðåçóëüòàòîâ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ñòðàí, âûáðàâøèõ ðàçëè÷íûå âàðèàíòû îáñëóæèâàíèÿ äîëãà, ìîãëî áû ïîìî÷ü Ðîññèè ñäåëàòü ïðàâèëüíûé âûáîð.
Âîçíèêàåò âîïðîñ, íàñêîëüêî çàêîíîìåðíû “êðèçèñû âíåøíåãî äîëãà” è ÷òî äîëæíî áûòü ïðåäïðèíÿòî, ÷òîáû èõ ïðåäîòâðàòèòü. Àíàëèç ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðàçâèòèÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 70-80-ûå ãîäû, ñòðàí Þãî-Âîñòî÷íîé Àçèè è
Ðîññèè â 1997-98 ãã. íàãëÿäíî äåìîíñòðèðóåò, ÷òî øîê íà ìåæäóíàðîäíîì ðûíêå êàïèòàëà ñëóæèò âñåãî ëèøü îäíèì èç ôàêòîðîâ êðèçèñà, ñâîåãî ðîäà ñèãíàëîì, îïðåäåëÿþùèì âðåìÿ åãî íà÷àëà. Äëÿ âîçíèêíîâåíèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî êðèçèñà íåîáõîäèìî íàëè÷èå è îïðåäåëåííûõ âíóòðèýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ óñëîâèé.
 Þãî-Âîñòî÷íîé Àçèè óñëîâèÿìè âîçíèêíîâåíèÿ ôèíàíñîâîãî êðèçèñà áûëè çíà÷èòåëüíûé òîðãîâûé äåôèöèò è ñâÿçàííàÿ ñ íèì ïåðåîöåíåííîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû, íåâûãîäíîå ñîîòíîøåíèå ñîáñòâåííûå /çàåìíûå ñðåäñòâà â ñòðóêòóðå êàïèòàëà, âûñîêàÿ äîëÿ êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ êðåäèòîâ âî âíåøíèõ çàéìàõ.
Äëÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè â 80-ûå ãîäû è ñåãîäíÿøíåé Ðîññèè êîìáèíàöèÿ êðèçèñíûõ ôàêòîðîâ áûëà íåñêîëüêî äðóãîé. Äëÿ íèõ áûëî õàðàêòåðíî ñî÷åòàíèå ñëàáîñòè íàëîãîâîé ñèñòåìû, ïîðîæäàþùåé ìàññîâîå áåãñòâî îò óïëàòû íàëîãîâ è êîíöåíòðàöèþ çíà÷èòåëüíûõ ðåñóðñîâ îáùåñòâà â “òåíåâîì” ñåêòîðå, è íåðàöèîíàëüíîñòè ñèñòåìû ãîñóäàðñòâåííûõ ðàñõîäîâ. Äðóãèìè êðèçèñíûìè ôàêòîðàìè áûëè ôèíàíñèðîâàíèå âûñîêîãî áþäæåòíîãî äåôèöèòà, âûçâàííîãî ïåðå÷èñëåííûìè âûøå ïðè÷èíàìè, ñ ïîìîùüþ ýìèññèè êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ ôèíàíñîâûõ èíñòðóìåíòîâ è/èëè ñåíüîðàæà, ñëàáàÿ äèôôåðåíöèàöèÿ ýêñïîðòà, îáóñëàâëèâàþùàÿ çàâèñèìîñòü âàëþòíûõ äîõîäîâ îò öåí íà ñûðüå íà ìèðîâîì ðûíêå, âûñîêàÿ äîëÿ êðàòêîñðî÷íûõ îáÿçàòåëüñòâ â ñòðóêòóðå âíåøíåãî äîëãà, íåäîñòàòî÷íîå ðàçâèòèå âíóòðåííåãî ôèíàíñîâîãî ðûíêà è åãî çàâèñèìîñòü îò èíîñòðàííîãî êàïèòàëà, ïåðåîöåíåííîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû, âûñîêèå ïîëèòè÷åñêèå è ñîöèàëüíûå ðèñêè äëÿ èíâåñòèðîâàíèÿ.
Ýêîíîìè÷åñêèé êðèçèñ 80-ûõ ãîäîâ ìíîãîìó íàó÷èë ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèå ñòðàíû. Ïðîâåäåííûå ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ïðåîáðàçîâàíèÿ è íàêîïëåííûé îïûò ñäåëàëè ñòðàíû ðåãèîíà áîëåå ðåçèñòåíòíûìè ê âíåøíèì øîêàì. Ïðèìåðàìè ýòîãî ñëóæàò îòñóòñòâèå âëèÿíèÿ ðîñòà ïðîöåíòíûõ ñòàâîê â ÑØÀ â ïåðâîé ïîëîâèíå
1994 ã. íà ýêîíîìè÷åñêèå ïîêàçàòåëè ëàòèíîàìåðèêàíñêèõ ñòðàí [13], äîñòàòî÷íî áûñòðàÿ íîðìàëèçàöèÿ ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ñèòóàöèè ïîñëå “òåêèëîâîãî” êðèçèñà
1994 - 1995 ãã. [5, 22], à òàêæå îòíîñèòåëüíî óñòîé÷èâîå ðàçâèòèå ýêîíîìèê ñòðàí

204

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ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

ðåãèîíà â íàñòîÿùåå âðåìÿ â óñëîâèÿõ îáùåãî êðèçèñà äîâåðèÿ ê ðàçâèâàþùèìñÿ ðûíêàì (ôèíàíñîâûé êðèçèñ ïîêà çàòðîíóë òîëüêî Áðàçèëèþ è Ýêâàäîð - ñòðàíû, â êîòîðûõ ðåôîðìû ôèñêàëüíîé è ôèíàíñîâîé ñèñòåì íå áûëè äîâåäåíû äî êîíöà è íàáëþäàëèñü áîëüøîé áþäæåòíûé äåôèöèò è ïåðåîöåíåííîñòü íàöèîíàëüíîé âàëþòû). Èçó÷åíèå îïûòà ýêîíîìè÷åñêîãî ðåôîðìèðîâàíèÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè ìîæåò ïîìî÷ü Ðîññèè ïîñòðîèòü óñòîé÷èâóþ, äèíàìè÷íóþ ýêîíîìèêó è èçáåæàòü ìíîãèõ îøèáîê ðîñòà. Îäíàêî, êàê ïîêàçûâàåò èñòîðèÿ, ìû ñòðàíà, ïðåäïî÷èòàþùàÿ ó÷èòüñÿ íà ñîáñòâåííûõ îøèáêàõ.
Ïðèëîæåíèå 1.
Íåêîòîðûå ìàêðîýêîíîìè÷åñêèå õàðàêòåðèñòèêè ðàçâèòèÿ ñòðàí Ëàòèíñêîé Àìåðèêè*)
Àðãåíòèíà
Èçìåíåíèå
Òåìï
Ïðèðîñò Äåôèöèò (-)
Óðîâåíü Ðåàëüíûé ×èñòûé Ñàëüäî ïî
ÂÂÏ,
èíôëÿöèè äåíåæíîé /ïðîôèöèò ñåíüîðàæà îáìåííûé ýêñïîðò, ñ÷åòàì ïðîöåíòîâ (ïî ÈÏÖ), ìàññû (àã- (+) ôåäå(èçìåíåíèå êóðñ ìëí. äîë- äâèæåíèÿ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ ðåãàò Ì2), ðàëüíîãî äåíåæíîé (1980 = 1) ëàðîâ êàïèòàëà/ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ áþäæåáàçû ê
ÑØÀ
ÂÂÏ, â ãîä òà/ÂÂÏ, íîìèíàë. ïðîöåíòîâ ïðîöåíòîâ
ÂÂÏ),
ïðîöåíòîâ

1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
*)
**)

3,2
6,2
-0,7
-0,2
6,2
-3,3
7,3
1,5
-5,7
-3,1
3,7
2,4
-7,0
7,1
2,5
-2,0
-7,0
-1,3
10,5
10,3

61,2
23,5
182,9
444
176
175,5
159,5
100,8
104,5
164,8
343,8
626,7
672,1
90,1
131,3
343
3079,8
2314
171,7
24,9

74,6
54,5
152,9
353,5
227,2
172,6
187,5
91,8
100,4
139,0
401,2
655,0
428,2
113,0
163,2
442,9
2234,4
1113,7
141,3
62,5

-2,9
-12,2
-11,9
-8,8
-4,3
-3,8
-3,0
-3,1
-6,8
-8,3
-8,4
-11,4
-17,7
-6,4
-4,8
-3,1
-0,7
-0,3
-0,5
0,0

3,1
14,1
24,5
25,9
5,2
6,7
4,3
2,7
3,7
7,7
14,1
10,9
17,5
1,8
2,8
5,1
16,1
4,5
2,3
1,4

1,22
1,77
0,17
0,10
0,23
0,35
0,54
1,00
0,50
0,14
0,08
0,04
0,07
0,32
0,20
0,12
0,01
0,04
0,48
1,28

1036,5
295,8
-985,2
883,1
1490,3
2565,8
1109,8
-2519,2
-287,2
2261
3331,9
3522,7
4581,9
2128,1
542,4
3813,2
5376,1
8276,5
3702,5
-2636,8

Ñòàòèñòè÷åñêèå äàííûå âçÿòû èç International Financial Statistics (ÌÂÔ).
N.A. -äàííûå íåäîñòóïíû.

N.A.**)
N.A.
N.A.
-2,0
1,7
-0,1
4,9
1,2
1,3
-4,4
-5,1
0,6
1,0
0,5
0,2
0,4
-24,7
-4,8
0,1
3,2

1999

205

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

Áîëèâèÿ
Èçìåíåíèå
Òåìï
Ïðèðîñò Äåôèöèò (-)
Óðîâåíü Ðåàëüíûé ×èñòûé Ñàëüäî ïî
ÂÂÏ,
èíôëÿöèè äåíåæíîé /ïðîôèöèò ñåíüîðàæà îáìåííûé ýêñïîðò, ñ÷åòàì ïðîöåíòîâ (ïî ÈÏÖ), ìàññû (àã- (+) ôåäå(èçìåíåíèå êóðñ ìëí. äîë- äâèæåíèÿ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ ðåãàò Ì2), ðàëüíîãî äåíåæíîé (1980 = 1) ëàðîâ êàïèòàëà/ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ áþäæåáàçû ê
ÑØÀ
ÂÂÏ, â ãîä òà/ÂÂÏ, íîìèíàë. ïðîöåíòîâ ïðîöåíòîâ
ÂÂÏ),
ïðîöåíòîâ

1973

6,7

31,5

32,8

-3,4

3,0

0,59

30,3

N.A.

1974

5,1

62,8

44,3

-1,1

2,1

0,86

166,5

N.A.

1975

6,6

8

23,2

-1,4

1,4

0,85

-113,8

N.A.

1976

6,1

4,5

47,5

-2,5

3,5

0,84

13,6

4,1

1977

4,2

8,1

29,4

-5,1

2,4

0,86

13,8

3,4

1978

3,4

10,4

13,0

-4,0

1,3

0,88

-179

0,5

1979

1,8

19,7

14,9

-7,3

1,1

0,77

-134,5

-3,1

1980

0,6

47,2

38,9

-7,9

3,2

1,00

276,8

3,3

1981

0,9

32,1

27,2

-6,8

1,6

1,20

-4,7

-2,6

1982

-4,4

123,5

230,4

-27,4

11,7

0,31

273,6

-4,6

1983

-4,5

275,6

173,7

-22,2

9,4

0,44

178,5

-21,4

1984

-0,6

1281,4

1411,7

-36,7

15,1

0,33

236

9,0

1985

-1,0

11749,6

7037,5

-41,2

6,9

0,20

-67,5

-15,0

1986

-2,5

276,3

184,7

-1,4

2,0

0,64

-36,2

-2,6

1987

2,6

14,6

92,9

-0,3

1,5

0,62

-196,8

-6,5

1988

3,0

16

28,6

-0,4

3,1

0,62

9,7

-5,3

1989

3,8

15,2

22,2

-0,6

1,9

0,56

210,9

-4,5

1990

4,6

17,1

52,8

-2,1

2,0

0,55

238,9

-2,9

1991

5,3

21,4

50,5

-4,1

2,2

0,58

-120,9

-3,5

1992

1,6

12,1

34,5

-5,3

0,4

0,58

-380,2

-3,1

206

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ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

Áðàçèëèÿ
Èçìåíåíèå
Òåìï
Ïðèðîñò Äåôèöèò (-)
Óðîâåíü Ðåàëüíûé ×èñòûé Ñàëüäî ïî
ÂÂÏ,
èíôëÿöèè äåíåæíîé /ïðîôèöèò ñåíüîðàæà îáìåííûé ýêñïîðò, ñ÷åòàì ïðîöåíòîâ (ïî ÈÏÖ), ìàññû (àã- (+) ôåäå(èçìåíåíèå êóðñ ìëí. äîë- äâèæåíèÿ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ ðåãàò Ì2), ðàëüíîãî äåíåæíîé (1980 = 1) ëàðîâ êàïèòàëà/ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ áþäæåáàçû ê
ÑØÀ
ÂÂÏ, â ãîä òà/ÂÂÏ, íîìèíàë. ïðîöåíòîâ ïðîöåíòîâ
ÂÂÏ),
ïðîöåíòîâ

1973

13,9

12,7

43,1

0,3

2,3

1,50

-800

N.A.

1974

8,1

27,6

1975

5,2

29

35,5

1,2

1,9

1,44

-6217

N.A.

42,9

-0,5

2,0

1,40

-4922

5,3

1976

10,2

42

38,9

-0,2

2,4

1,38

-3598

6,6

1977

4,9

43,7

44,8

-0,9

2,2

1,43

-1137

4,0

1978

5,0

38,7

51,1

-1,7

2,0

1,42

-2395

6,6

1979

6,8

52,7

73,1

-0,6

3,4

0,96

-4560

4,5

1980

9,2

82,8

61,4

-2,5

2,0

1,00

-4829

5,1

1981

-4,2

105,6

88,1

-2,5

2,0

0,96

-786

6,7

1982

0,8

97,8

84

-2,6

2,1

0,89

-894

4,7

1983

-2,9

142,1

135,8

-4,3

2,0

0,53

5098

-3,3

1984

6,4

197

270,1

-5,1

2,8

0,47

11795

-4,8

1985

7,5

226,9

322,5

-11,1

2,7

0,45

11307

-6,6

1986

7,0

145,2

268,7

-13,3

4,2

0,76

6792

-3,3

1987

3,4

229,7

213,7

-12,0

8,0

0,50

9643

-6,1

1988

-0,1

682,3

803,7

-15,2

4,0

0,36

17439

-8,1

1989

4,0

1287

1462,7

-18,5

10,2

0,32

14508

-11,8

1990

-4,3

2937,8

1289,2

-5,8

6,8

0,59

8890

-3,0

1991

0,0

440,9

633,6

-0,4

6,8

0,50

8670

-3,1

1992

-0,9

1008,7

1606,6

-3,8

8,8

0,47

12725

4,1

1999

207

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

Âåíåñóýëà
Èçìåíåíèå
Òåìï
Ïðèðîñò Äåôèöèò (-)
Óðîâåíü Ðåàëüíûé ×èñòûé Ñàëüäî ïî
ÂÂÏ,
èíôëÿöèè äåíåæíîé /ïðîôèöèò ñåíüîðàæà îáìåííûé ýêñïîðò, ñ÷åòàì ïðîöåíòîâ (ïî ÈÏÖ), ìàññû (àã- (+) ôåäå(èçìåíåíèå êóðñ ìëí. äîë- äâèæåíèÿ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ ðåãàò Ì2), ðàëüíîãî äåíåæíîé (1980 = 1) ëàðîâ êàïèòàëà/ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ áþäæåáàçû ê
ÑØÀ
ÂÂÏ, â ãîä òà/ÂÂÏ, íîìèíàë. ïðîöåíòîâ ïðîöåíòîâ
ÂÂÏ),
ïðîöåíòîâ

1973

6,3

4,1

19,8

1,6

1,8

1,07

764

1,2

1974
1975

6,1

8,3

35,6

1,9

2,5

1,00

7396

-3,3

6,1

10,2

53,3

1,6

3,3

1,00

3476

0,6

1976

8,8

7,6

23,3

-3,0

1,9

1,04

2512

0,2

1977

6,7

7,8

25,6

-4,3

2,3

1,05

-225

4,7

1978

2,1

7,1

5,0

-4,1

1,2

1,05

-1414

8,1

1979

1,3

12,4

18,1

1,9

1,4

1,01

4704

6,7

1980

-2,0

21,5

17,3

0,0

0,7

1,00

8566

0,3

1981

-0,3

16

13,5

-1,4

1,6

1,10

9172

-2,8

1982

0,7

9,7

8,5

-4,4

1,8

1,19

4929

-2,3

1983

-5,6

6,3

23,6

-1,5

3,5

1,26

8154

-5,5

1984

-1,4

11,6

18,3

2,1

2,9

0,74

8993

-3,7

1985

1,4

11,4

9,7

2,8

0,4

0,79

7135

-1,1

1986

6,3

11,5

12,9

-2,0

-0,2

0,45

999

-2,1

1987

4,5

28,1

23,8

-4,6

0,6

0,48

1875

2,0

1988

6,2

29,5

16,4

-4,8

0,5

0,59

-1221

-2,0

1989

-7,8

84,5

45,6

-0,1

2,8

0,25

6256

-16,0

1990

6,9

40,7

71,2

0,0

6,2

0,37

10889

-12,1

1991

9,7

34,2

39,2

2,0

3,7

0,41

5113

3,3

1992

6,1

31,4

16,5

-3,1

0,7

0,41

1513

5,8

208

¹2

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

×èëè
Èçìåíåíèå
Òåìï
Ïðèðîñò Äåôèöèò (-)
Óðîâåíü Ðåàëüíûé ×èñòûé Ñàëüäî ïî
ÂÂÏ,
èíôëÿöèè äåíåæíîé /ïðîôèöèò ñåíüîðàæà îáìåííûé ýêñïîðò, ñ÷åòàì ïðîöåíòîâ (ïî ÈÏÖ), ìàññû (àã- (+) ôåäå(èçìåíåíèå êóðñ ìëí. äîë- äâèæåíèÿ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ ðåãàò Ì2), ðàëüíîãî äåíåæíîé (1980 = 1) ëàðîâ êàïèòàëà/ â ãîä ïðîöåíòîâ áþäæåáàçû ê
ÑØÀ
ÂÂÏ, â ãîä òà/ÂÂÏ, íîìèíàë. ïðîöåíòîâ ïðîöåíòîâ
ÂÂÏ),
ïðîöåíòîâ

1973

-5,6

361,5

334,0

-7,3

15,2

0,07

-59

N.A.

1974

1,0

504,7

297,3

-5,4

6,6

0,10

333

N.A.

1975

-12,9

374,7

306,7

0,1

6,0

0,13

27

-1,6

1976

3,5

211,8

415,2

1,4

6,6

0,29

219

3,3

1977

9,9

91,9

99,4

-1,1

2,9

0,53

-349

5,8

1978

8,2

40,1

94,0

-0,1

4,0

0,78

-930

13,6

1979

8,3

33,4

66,4

4,8

3,5

0,85

-914

10,9

1980

7,8

35,1

62,1

5,4

3,2

1,00

-1092

11,8

1981

5,5

19,7

28,6

2,6

0,8

1,22

-3344

14,6

1982

-14,1

9,9

34,8

-1,0

0,3

0,91

-283

3,9

1983

-0,7

27,3

21,5

-2,6

1,1

0,78

746

-15,1

1984

6,4

19,9

22,4

-3,0

1,6

0,78

77

-0,4

1985

2,5

30,7

47,3

-2,3

1,5

0,43

732

-9,7

1986

5,6

19,5

25,3

-0,9

2,5

0,50

755

-13,3

1987

6,6

19,9

35,0

1,9

1,3

0,50

828

-3,9

1988

7,3

14,7

27,1

1,0

2,7

0,55

1760

-3,8

1989

9,9

17

31,2

1,4

1,2

0,50

936

4,9

1990

3,3

26

23,5

0,8

1,5

0,49

695

10,4

1991

7,3

21,8

28,1

1,5

2,7

0,53

848

3,0

1992

10,7

15,4

23,3

2,3

1,8

0,62

-122

7,9

1999

ÏÐÀÊÒÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÀÍÀËÈÇ

*

*

209

*

ÑÏÈÑÎÊ ËÈÒÅÐÀÒÓÐÛ
1. Ñìèðíîâ À. Ä. Íåëèíåéíàÿ äèíàìèêà ïåðåõîäíîé ýêîíîìèêè. - Ì.: Âûñøàÿ Øêîëà Ýêîíîìèêè, 1996.
2. Arrau P. How does the debt crisis affect investment and growth? A neoclassical growth model applied to Mexico // International Economic Department, The World Bank,
1990, WPS ¹ 378.
3. Borenzstein E. Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment // J. of Development
Economics, 1990, ¹ 32.
4. Calvo G. A., Leiderman L., Reinhardt C. M. Capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation in Latin America // IMF Staff Papers, 1993, ¹ 40.
5. Calvo S., Reinhardt C. M. Capital flows to Latin America: Is there evidence of contagion effects ? in: Calvo G. A., Goldstein M. and Hochreiter E. (eds.) Private capital flows to emerging markets after the Mexican crises. 1996.
6. Ñînnolly M. B. The speculative attack on the peso and the real exchange rate:
Argentina, 1979-81 // J. of International Money and Finance, 1986, ¹ 5.
7. Cumby R. E., van Wijnbergen S. Financial policy and speculative runs with a crawling peg: Argentina, 1979-81 // J. of International Economics, 1989, ¹ 27.
8. Diaz Alejandro, C. Latin American debt: I don’t think we are in Kansas anymore //
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1984, ¹ 2.
9. Dornbusch R., Fisher S. The world debt problem. Capital flows and world debt in
Rasin A. (ed.) Economic policy: Theory and practice. 1987.
10. Fisher S. The asian crisis: The view from IMF - Äîêëàä íà êîíôåðåíöèè
Àññîöèàöèè ñîäåéñòâèÿ ìåæäóíàðîäíîé òîðãîâëè, 1998.
11. Flood R. P., Garber P. M. Market fundamentals vs price-level bubbles: the first test
// J. of Political Economy, 1980, ¹ 80.
12. Friedman B. M. Lessons from the 1979-82 monetary policy experiment //
American Economic Review, 1984, ¹ 74.
13. Kaminsky G., Pareira A. The debt crisis: Lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. International Finance Discussion Papers, 1994, ¹
481.
14. Kochhar K., Loungani P., Stone M. R. The east asian crisis: Macroeconomic development and policy lessons, IMF Working Paper, 1998, WP/98/128.
15. Krugman P. Financing vs forgiving a debt overhang: Some analytical notes // J. of
Development Economics, 1988, ¹ 29.
16. McCallum B. T. Monetarist rules in the light of recent experience // American
Economic Review, 1984, ¹ 74.

210

ÝÊÎÍÎÌÈ×ÅÑÊÈÉ ÆÓÐÍÀË ÂØÝ

¹2

17. Pierce J. L. Did financial innovations hurt the great monetarist experiment? //
American Economic Review, 1984, ¹ 74.
18. Rodriguez C. A. The role of trade flows in exchange rate determination: A rational expectation approach // J. of Political Economy, 1980, ¹ 88.
19. Rodriguez C. A. Managed float: An evaluation of alternative rules in the presence of speculative capital flows // American Economic Review, 1981, ¹ 71.
20. Sachs J. The bolivian hyperinflation and stabilization // American Economic
Review, 1987, ¹ 77.
21. Sachs J. The debt overhang of the development countries in: G.A. Calvo,
R. Findlay, P. Kouri, de Macedo J.B.(eds.) Debt, stabilization and development, 1989.
22. Sachs J., Tornelli A., Velasco A. Financial crises in emerging markets: The lesson from 1995 // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1996, ¹ 1.
23. Shafer J. R., Loopesko B. E. Floating exchange rates after ten years // Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, 1983, ¹ 1.
24. Shiller R. J., Campbell J. Y., Schoenholtz K. L. Forward rates and future policy:
Interpreting the term structure of interest rates // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
1983, ¹ 1.

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