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Growth Investing

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Submitted By u0909098
Words 10882
Pages 44
Stock Price Sensitivity to Dividend Changes



Cesare Fracassi
Department of Finance - UCLA Anderson School of Management
Email Address: cesare.fracassi.2009@anderson.ucla.edu
First Draft April 4th , 2007
Current Draft:
July 29, 2008

Abstract
This paper examines the stock price sensitivity to dividend changes. The Dividend Signaling, the Free-Cash-Flow, the Maturity and the Catering Hypotheses all predict an average positive (negative) reaction to announcement of a dividend increase (decrease). However, these hypotheses have different cross-sectional predictions. This paper documents that the positive stock price response to dividend increases is due primarily to the signaling of higher future earnings, to the managers catering to the time-varying premium assigned by the market to dividend paying stocks, and partially to the reduction of agency problems. On the contrary, the negative price response to dividend decreases is mainly due to the transition from a mature life-cycle stage to a decline stage with higher systematic risk, as maintained by the Maturity Hypothesis.

Keywords: Dividend; Signaling; Overinvestment; Life-Cycle.
JEL Classification Numbers: G14, G35.



I would like to thank Albert Sheen for his constant support and excellent insights. I would also like to thank
Antonio Bernardo, my mentor over the years, and Mark Garmaise and Walter Torous for their helpful comments.
All errors are mine.

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Introduction

The impact of dividend change announcements on stock prices has been widely documented.
Petit (1972) and many others afterwards show on average a positive correlation between dividend changes and short term abnormal returns. In a recent study, Grullon, Michaely, and
Swaminathan (2002) show a 3-day cumulative abnormal return of 1.34% for dividend increases and of -3.71% for dividend decreases. What is more

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