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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION AGING FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH David E. Bloom David Canning Günther Fink Working Paper 16705 http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2011

Support for this work was provided by the Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University, funded by Award Number P30AG024409 from the National Institute on Aging. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute on Aging or the National Institutes of Health. The authors thank Marija Ozolins and Larry Rosenberg for their assistance in the preparation of this paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2011 by David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.

Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink NBER Working Paper No. 16705 January 2011 JEL No. J14,J15,J21,J26,O1,O4 ABSTRACT The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest – but not

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