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Indian Pharma – Likely Future Trends

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Indian Pharma – likely future trends
Years back, Isaac Asimov said, “Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's troublesome.” While it may not be a matter of life and death for the Indian pharma industry, it certainly is the transition time and like any transition, it has its pain, as well as gain.
Indian pharma has enjoyed a decadal growth rate of ≈13%, except for the year 2013, when due to large number of formulations coming under price control, growth rate plummeted by more than half to little over 6%. In couple of months of that year, pharma market actually de-grew - a first in the last 50 years! That was unthinkable. Clearly it was the time, which made people pause and think.
And that lead to churning in the thinking of the companies – what’s the road ahead? For sure, during 2014, companies have been busy regaining their composure and the lost sales, but parallely, they have been trying to answer the vital question – what’s next?
Everybody believes that the industry will continue to grow at double digit rate in the foreseeable future. But will the existing business model be the only key driver of the growth, is an open question, with multitude of the views. One thing seems pretty certain that the pharma industry will not remain same in immediate to medium future.
For starter, industry will learn to live with more price control at regular intervals. Same happened in 2014, and will continue in 2015 and beyond. There is absolutely no ambiguity in government thinking on this issue. Even now, only around 15% of the domestic market is under price control, and hence government feels there is scope to ‘do more’ on the issue of price control, which will put further pressure on profitability. This would possibly lead to change in distribution and marketing model, with medicines for at least chronic medicines being supplied directly to consumers.

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