...Journal of Business Economics and Management ISSN: 1611-1699 (Print) 2029-4433 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tbem20 Evaluation of some business macro environment forecasting methods Vulfs Kozlinskis & Kristine Guseva To cite this article: Vulfs Kozlinskis & Kristine Guseva (2006) Evaluation of some business macro environment forecasting methods, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 7:3, 111-117 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16111699.2006.9636131 Published online: 14 Oct 2010. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 1769 View related articles Citing articles: 1 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tbem20 Download by: [86.20.58.206] Date: 10 November 2015, At: 14:42 Journal of Business Economics and Management 2006, Vol VII, No 3, 111117 ISSN 1611-1699 EVALUATION OF SOME BUSINESS MACRO ENVIRONMENT FORECASTING METHODS Vulfs Kozlinskis1, Kristine Guseva2 Riga International School of Economics and Business Administration (RISEBA), Meza iela 1, k. 2, LV-1048 Riga, Latvia E-mail: 1Vulfs@rsebaa.lv, 2 kris@rsebaa.lv Downloaded by [86.20.58.206] at 14:42 10 November 2015 Received 06 03 2006; accepted 28 04 2006 Abstract. Latest studies in the field of business macro environment (BME) assessment and forecasting have been undertaken and successfully implemented...
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...Development is a change and implies that change is for the better, and improvement. Was traditionally a one dimensional concept simply focussing on the economic growth of a country, however today it is multidimensional, incorporating: economic, social, environmental, cultural and political progress in a country. The Human Development Index (HDI) is one method of measuring development. This is a good indicator of development as it includes lots of factors, such as life expectancy and literacy rates, and recognises the multidimensional nature of development. However, there are no environmental factors taken into account, making it difficult to measure over all development. Another development indicator is Income per capita. This makes measuring development difficult as it gives an average for the whole country, when in reality there will be many varied values throughout the country. Also it only includes money in the country, if money made outside of the country was also included the income per capita for each country would change, some would increase by more than others, and give a better overall view of development. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is also not taken into account with income per capita; this means that the cost of living in each country is not accounted for so development may appear better in some countries than it actually is. Income per capita can be used to measure the economic and social development, but not any of the other factors of development, such as...
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...research the following) A range of development indicators that South Africa is more developed than its neighbouring countries (Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho) | Mrs. K. Nagiah | | Done by: Caleb Terah Manikam Done by: Caleb Terah Manikam Caleb Terah Manikam11C Reg. no.:10 Geography Caleb Terah Manikam11C Reg. no.:10 Geography Content 1. Introduction 2. Comparison of development indicators in the seven countries 3. Pictures 4. Conclusion 5. Bibliography Introduction: In this investigation I will thoroughly research and determine whether South Africa is more developed than its neighbouring countries Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Swaziland and Lesotho with the given information and my own I will set out to determine to demonstrate that particular outcome with comparing them and demonstrating it through pictures. Development: refers to the level of progress/growth made by humans in all aspects of life e.g. economic, social, political, medical, educational, transport etc. Development is closely related to the attainment of human needs. There is a marked difference between developed and developing countries with respect to the level of development. The level of development of a country impacts directly on the quality of life of its inhabitants. The primary objective of economic development is to raise the standard of living of people. Levels of development: there are differences in the...
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...Union membership. The population of Serbia is 7,163,976 inhabitants. World Bank acknowledges Serbia as an upper-middle income country. Political reforms and economic llberalization in the beginning of 2000 helped the country to experience economic growth. Today Serbia is preparing for membership in the European Union so it keeps making reforms, including reforms directed on creating positive environment for doing business. Key factors that are taken into consideration are business environment, economic structure, economic growth and labor market. Business Environment. First of all, attention should be payed to the index of economic freedom, corruption and index of fiscal freedom. * Index of economic freedom. Currently it’s meaning is 59.4. This figure is lower than in other Balkan countries and the EU. However, in recent years there is a tendency to positive change (increase of 2.8% over the past 5 years); * One of the problematic issues is corruption. Index of corruption peception is quite high and is 42 points, it is the average rate in the Balkan countries, but relatively high in comparison with other European countries. This may indicate the need for searching for relations, lobby and high costs of corruption and bribery; * Index of fiscal freedom also has a negative tendency, it is 83.1. This indicator can have a negative impact on business activities because the company is spending heavily on taxes. Tariff rate is the highest in the region and is characterized...
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...South Africa A Development and Economic Overview Introduction I chose South Africa as the topic for this research paper. I have always wanted to visit South Africa but have never had the opportunity to travel there. My involvement in international development has given me an interest in this country, as it has many ties to the developing world and the history of developing countries through colonialism. South Africa is influenced by all levels of economic activity including the primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary and quinary sectors which determine if South Africa’s commercial economy. These economic levels, along with the indicators of development, show whether or not South Africa is a developed nation and if so, how developed they are. This paper will present an overview of the economic activities in South Africa and analyze its state of development. Major Economic Activity in South Africa South Africa has a lot of influence throughout multiple levels of economic activity; from primary production to quinary services. Regarding the primary level of economic activity, they have a agriculture sector that covers both subsistence farms and commercial farms. Subsistence farms by definition consume what they produce in order to survive, whereas commercial farms produce a good in excess in order to sell it in a market for the purpose of gaining a profit (Doberstein, 2011). Through the influence of modern innovation and technology, South African farms are able...
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...Exit From Crisis And The Post-Crisis Development Of The Baltic States As a result of accessing the European Union (EU) in 2004 the Baltic states benefited from an accession-related boost to income convergence and a credit-driven boom continued. While recognising the rapid growth as well as the increasing level of income, employment opportunities and rising living standarts, it was already in 2006 when the International Monetary Fund expressed concerns about overheating of economies of the Baltic states1. When the global financial crisis or “the four horsemen of financial crises: “sudden stops” in capital inflows, asset price collapses, recessions and fiscal deficits”2 hit, the Baltic states were no exception. There are different views about the exit strategy from the financial crisis of the Baltic states. Defenders point to recent rapid growth. One can look at the GDP annual growth rates for years 2006-2014 for the Baltic states - the GDP decreased rapidly during crisis, reaching its lowest point in 2009 for all three Baltic states. After 2009 the GDP annual growth rates increased, howerver, at the end of 2012, GDP of, e.g., Latvia was still below its pre-crisis level; Lithuania and Estonia had done better. Taking a look also at the GNI annual growth rates for years 2006-2014 for the Baltic states, the decrease in the GNI rate, e.g., for Latvia continued until 20103, showing that even though the value of goods and services produced in the country increased, less...
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...Block IV MACROECONOMICS – II UNIT 17 Inflation 1-14 UNIT 18 Banking and Money Supply 15-31 UNIT 19 International Trade and Balance of Payments 32-50 UNIT 20 Economic Indicators 51-62 UNIT 21 Business Cycles 63-71 UNIT 22 Economic Growth, Development and Planning 72-84 Economics for Managers Expert Committee Dr. J. Mahender Reddy Vice Chancellor IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Prof. Y. K. Bhushan Vice Chancellor IU, Meghalaya Prof. Loveraj Takru Director, IBS Dehradun IU, Dehradun Course Preparation Team Prof. Ramalingam Meenakshisundaram IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Ms. Pushpanjali Mikkilineni IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Mr. Pijus Kanti Bhuin IU, Sikkim Ms. Preetaq Dutta Rai IU, Jharkhand Ranchi Prof. S S George Director, ICMR IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Dr. O. P. Gupta Vice Chancellor IU, Nagaland Prof. D. S. Rao Director, IBS, Hyderabad IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Ms. Hadiya Faheem IFHE (Deemed to be University) Hyderabad Mr. Mrinmoy Bhattacharjee IU, Mizoram Aizawal Prof. Tarak Nath Shah IU, Dehradun Mr. Manoj Kumar De IU, Tripura Agartala © The ICFAI University Press, All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise – without prior permission in writing from The ICFAI University Press, Hyderabad. Ref. No. Eco Mgrs SLM – 09...
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...Ernest Santucci Geog 110 Lesson 7 8/4/11 1. Explain the concept of development. Identify the two categories used to describe a country’s level of development. How are these categories helpful in understanding the global state of development? Also, what are the major shortcomings of this categorization scheme? Rubinstein explains development as the process of improving the material conditions of people through the diffusion of knowledge and technology. Development can take many forms: economic, agricultural, human, educational, ecological, structural, political and others. The principal goal is to move a state or society to another, more advanced stage and enabling better living conditions including health and longevity. Two fundamental categories used in identifying states are LDC (less developed countries) and MDC (more developed countries). The designations are useful in providing a basic indicator of the conditions of a state in relation to the world as a whole. Most often the designations points to aspects of the state’s economy, human development, politics and demographic transition. During the Cold War the LDC’s were known as Third World countries. It was a handy reference to use in determining a number or relevant issues related to economics and security. As a broad designation the categories do not go far enough into details of particular areas of concern, and do not necessarily indicate what goods or services are accessible within the state or at what...
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...info Abstract: Ten of the post-communist countries managed to integrate into EU. Which are the subjective outcomes of socio-economic transformations in these countries? Did they manage to increase their citizens’ happiness in this process? To give an answer to these questions I used data from Candidate Countries Eurobarometer (2001-2004), Standard Eurobarometers (2005-2007), and World Bank Development Indicators. Developments in average national happiness have been compared with the economic (GDP, optimism concerning the level of living) and political (satisfaction with democracy) trends on the same time span. In all the studied societies, trends were positive after 2001. Eastern European countries showed higher increases in GNI per capita and also life satisfaction than in the rest of European Union. Those who started with lower levels increased more, strongly suggesting a possibility of convergence. A non-economic factor, satisfaction with democracy, mediates the influence of GNI on life satisfaction. Overall, access of Eastern European countries in European Union seems to be a success story, from both economic and non-economic points of view. However, the economic crisis may change the prognosis, raising the issue of sustainability of growth in happiness levels. Keywords: subjective well-being; economic development; Post-socialist countries; GDP JEL: D31, D60, I31, O52, P2 Ten of the post-communist countries entered EU in 2004 and 2007...
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...Research (CIHR) to develop a framework and indicators to measure the impact of health research. The development process included national and international consultations. Key methodology challenges and measurement requirements were identified. The framework that has resulted from this process includes definitions of key concepts, methodology guidelines, identification of the different stakeholders for impact information and the individual concerns of each stakeholder group. Indicators are classified within five categories that encompass a broad range of impacts. Sources of information and issues in attributing research impacts are discussed. An analysis of issues suggests that impact measurement and performance measurement are complementary activities, with the former focused on broad impacts of the health research sector and the latter on the degree of success achieved by funding agencies in contributing to the process of knowledge development and uptake. Introduction Accountability and value received for the use of public funds have become high priorities for governments around the world. Quantifying the value of publicly funded health research is a challenge for many countries. This paper describes the approach taken by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), Canada’s national health research funding agency, to develop a framework to measure the impact of its investments in health research and to begin to identify robust indicators that can be used to establish benchmarks...
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...National and International Approaches in Social Reporting Author(s): Franz Rothenbacher Reviewed work(s): Source: Social Indicators Research, Vol. 29, No. 1 (May, 1993), pp. 1-62 Published by: Springer Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27522680 . Accessed: 25/11/2011 03:27 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. Springer is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Social Indicators Research. http://www.jstor.org FRANZ ROTHENBACHER NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL APPROACHES IN SOCIAL REPORTING* (Accepted 27 October, 1992) ABSTRACT. National and international in social in western approaches reporting are described. starts with The the outline of current in activities paper Europe are discussed. international The national Further organizations. competing approaches and products of social reporting; the plurality of actors in social topics are the sources and different The only diffusion of ways of its institutionalization. reporting, incomplete inWestern social are offered...
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... Arlington, VA 22204 ● USA ● www.steadystate.org info@steadystate.org ● +1 541-602-3097 GDP and Indicators of Economic Wellbeing Sound Byte At this point in history, increasing economic activity does more harm than good, so we need to adopt new indicators of wellbeing such as the Genuine Progress Indicator. GDP and Its Discontents For many years, especially since World War II, nations have equated economic growth with progress. Economic growth is an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services, and is indicated by increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP, therefore, has become the standard measure of economic progress, even though it was only intended as a macroeconomic accounting tool. Prompted by Wall Street, the Federal Reserve System, and the media, citizens generally applaud increases in GDP. The problem with GDP is that it doesn't separate costs from benefits. It simply adds them together under the heading of economic activity. In a 1968 campaign speech, Robert F. Kennedy eloquently explained the shortcomings of using GDP to gauge progress. Is increasing GDP indicative of increasing wellbeing? It depends on whether the social costs of such an increase outweigh the benefits. GDP is a good measure of size, but at some point bigger is worse, not better. At the individual level, economic activity is required for wellbeing, but the relationship becomes very weak after a surprisingly low per capita GDP is...
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...4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A CHANGING FOCUS 4.1 Introduction The large impact of TFP growth on economic growth (on average 56.5%) found in the previous section provides a sign that there were also other factors, besides physical capital, which were important for economic growth. However, because TFP growth is calculated as a residual, it is unclear which factors are captured by TFP growth. Whether this was technology, as was often assumed, or whatever other factor, could not be decided based on this evidence. This was less a problem in early development economics when development was looked upon as (lack of) physical capital accumulation (see for example Lewis 1955). As physical capital accumulation was inserted in the growth accounting exercise, the TFP growth could simply be interpreted as technological growth. Yet, with the rising importance of other, social, indicators such as health, literacy, and human capital, the growth of TFP could reflect the growth of these social indicators as well. 4.2 A classic view: GDP and physical capital On the basis of per capita GDP data provided by Maddison (2003), we may conclude that the levels of per capita GDP were about equal in India, Indonesia, and Japan around 1800. However, in the course of the nineteenth century they started to diverge. In 1890 Japan was already clearly ahead, having a gap in per capita GDP of 35% with Indonesia and 65% with India (see figure 1.1). Indeed, figure 1.1 shows that from 1870 onward there...
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...Abstract This paper discusses Gross Domestic Product and related concepts as a measure of social progress and welfare. Although GDP remains the most widely used measure of social progress, the recent global financial crisis and continued depletion of natural resources and environmental adverse impact has brought into question the use of GDP as the main indicator of social welfare. Four alternatives to GDP are assessed and evaluated as the standard for national accounts for Botswana and China. Alternatives fall into the following broad categories, corrected GDP and extended national accounts,composite indexes and subjective approaches. Key Words: composite indicators; economic growth; GDP, sustainable indixes. Botswana, China Table of Contents Introduction A region's gross domestic product, or GDP, is one of the ways for measuring the size of its economy. The GDP of a country is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). It is also considered the sum of value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. Until the 1992 the term GNP or gross national product was used in the United States. The two terms GDP and GNP are almost identical - and yet entirely different; GDP (or GDI - Gross Domestic Income) being concerned with the region in which income is generated...
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...BANGLADESH STOCK MARKET GROWING? KEY INDICATORS BASED ASSESSMENT Abstract This paper focuses on the growth of Bangladesh stock market over time. The market trends in terms of market capitalization, market liquidity, market concentration, number of listings, volatility in the market index and foreign portfolio investment were considered. The study finds that key indicators are significantly correlated. Stock market growth index is constructed considering market capitalization ratio; turn over ratio, value traded to GDP ratio and volatility in market index. The findings of the study suggest that although Bangladesh stock market is growing over time, the growth has not yet assumed any stable and obvious trend. We conclude that Bangladesh stock market is still at an early stage of its growth path with a small market size relative to GDP and is characterized by poor liquidity and high market concentration. Introduction Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (1996), Singh (1997) and Levine and Zervos (1998) find that stock market growth plays an important role in predicating future economic growth in situations where the stock markets are active. The arguments of Demirguc-Kunt et al. (1996) indicate that economies without well-functioning stock markets may suffer from three types of imperfections: first, opportunities for risk diversification are limited for investors and entrepreneurs, second, firms are unable to optimally structure their financing packages and third, countries...
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