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Information Systems Paper

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Week 10 Lecture:
Grading rule:
To get the full 1-mark credit, you would need to attempt: a) the two past exam questions + b) either question 13 or 17 for chapter 15; and c) any question out of questions 15, 25 and 27 for chapter 13.
To get the half credit, you would need to attempt both past exam questions.
Past exam questions:
1. Market Risk for multi-period horizons and portfolios
An Australian bank has long positions of 1 million US dollars and 1 million Swiss Francs. The closing exchange rates yesterday were AU$1.5/US$ and AU$1/SWF. The historical average value of daily exchange rate return is zero for both AU$/US$ and AU$/SWF. The standard deviations of daily exchange rate return for AU$/US$ and AU$/SWF are 50 basis points and 100 basis points respectively. The historical correlation between the two exchange rate returns is 0.5.
a) If the daily exchange rate returns for both AU$/US$ and AU$/SWF follow a normal distribution and independent across dates (i.e., the serial correlation in daily exchange rate returns is zero), what is 10-day VaR for the bank’s aggregate holdings of two currencies?
b) Assume for this question that the daily exchange rate returns for AU$/SWF do not follow a normal distribution and not independent across dates either. Based on the historical data, there is typically 5% of chance that SWF will depreciate by more than 150 basis points relative to AU$ in 10 days, and there is also 5% of chance that SWF will appreciate by more than 100 basis points relative to AU$ in 10 days. What is 10-day VaR for the bank’s SWF position?

2. Foreign exchange risk
a) OZ Bank issues a one-year Australian certificate of deposit to finance a US$1 million investment in one-year fixed rate U.S. bonds. The interest rate of AU$ CD is 5% per annum. and the yield to maturity of the US bond is 10% per annum. Currently, spot exchange rates are

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