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Intelligence Analysis

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Chris Fagin SCTY 385: Intelligence Analysis, Writing, and Briefing FINAL EXAM—SPRING 2008 50 Questions—3 points each (150 points total / 15% of final grade)

1. With respect to intelligence requirements and the National Security Council, who is the final adjudicator within the intelligence community for collection requirements on the National Level? a. President of the United States b. Secretary of Defense c. Secretary of State d. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) e. Director of Central Intelligence (DCI)

2. Identify the “stakeholders” for the target-centric process. a. Collectors, Processors, Analysts, Force Modernization Staff b. Collectors, Processors, Policy Makers, Force Modernization Staff c. Collectors, Processors, Investigators, Policy Makers d. Processors, Analysts, Force Modernization Staff, Policy Makers e. None of the above

3. What are the 3 major components of a “system?” a. Structure, Function, Endstate b. Structure, Function, Process c. Structure, Process, Endstate d. Definition, Function, Process e. Definition, Process, Endstate

4. What is the purpose of a “Normative Model?” The purpose is to describe a best or preferable course of action.

5. Identify the major shortcoming of the traditional intelligence cycle. The traditional Intelligence Cycle is different because it fails to link customers’ process and intelligence professional

6. Identify the two major reasons that all intelligence targets are complex systems. They are dynamic and evolving. They are nonlinear, in that they are not adequately described by a simple structure such as a tree diagram or the linear structure previously illustrated for the traditional intelligence cycle.

7. Differentiate between a Single Target and a Target as a Complex System. A single target is some like a BMP in Afghanistan, no matter how you try and change it; it is still going to be a BMP. A Target as a Complex System is like Pablo Escobar. Each level of his drug cartel had its own sublevel and many different components. You could target one part of it and still not get all of it unless you knew the many levels and that would take time.

8. TRUE / FALSE: The “synthesis / analysis paradigm” is the heart of the intelligence process?

9. What is the difference between a physical and conceptual model? A physical model is a tangible representation of something. Things like a map, globe, calendar / the earth and time. Conceptual models are invention of the mind or abstract thoughts.

10. List the four items never incorporated into a model. Ethnocentric Bias Wishful Thinking Parochial Interests Premature Closure

11. Define Accessibility according to the CARVER methodology. Accessibility is ease with which a target can be reached, either physically or by standoff fire.

12. According to the CARVER methodology, what factor considers public reaction in the vicinity of the target—both on a domestic and international level? E- Effect-on-Population

13. When establishing the needs for defining an intelligence problem, what four major questions need to be answered? What is happening? Who are the key players involved, what is their intent, and what are their capabilities. Where are the key people and things located? What is inside a facility or thing?

14. What is the most important step in the intelligence process? a. Developing trust in your contacts b. Knowing what the customer wants as a final briefing product c. Understanding the problem accurately and in detail d. Resourcing funds to collect on the target e. Projecting early warning signs of threats

15. What is a KIT? An EEI? An SIR and a PIR? KIT= Key Intelligence Topics EEI = Essential Element of Information SIR= Specific Intelligence Requirements PIR= Priority Intelligence Requirement

16. What does “Strategies-To-Task” mean when defining the intelligence problem? It help to understand the problem accurately and in detail.

17. For a Time-Event Chart, what does a triangle represent? Rectangle? Triangles are used to show shifts in method of operation or change in ideology. Rectangles are used to indicate significant events or activities.

18. What is the purpose of an Association Matrix and what does it represent? To displays a relationship between individuals. It reflects associations within a group or similar activity, and is based on the assumption that people involved in a collective activity know one another.

19. What does an Activities Matrix reveal? Activities Matrix reveal an organization’s membership, organizational structure, cell structure and size, communications network, support structure, linkages with other organizations and entities, group activities and operations, and national or international ties.

20. How does an analyst use a Link Diagram? Analyst uses the link diagram to support investigate efforts in terrorism, counterintelligence, and criminal activity, and to graphically portray pertinent information from the association matrix and activities matrix, independently or synthesized.

21. What is gap analysis the process of? Identifying and prioritizing gaps based on the importance of the underlying need and size of the gap. Classifying gaps as to their nature: do they occur in collection, processing, analysis, or dissemination. Sorting gaps as either short term, for current collection systems “tuning” or long term, for new capabilities development.

22. TRUE / FALSE: An enigma is a form of a knowledge gap?

23. TRUE / FALSE: Tactical intelligence deals with issues that require immediate action.

24. TRUE / FALSE: Strategic intelligence deals with long-range issues.

25. “I & W” generally stands for what with respect to the analytical spectrum? Indication and Warning

From the Decision Matrix (DECMAT) below answer questions 26-31:

Safety (x 2) Cost Availability Technology Totals
| | | | | |
|4 (8) |3 |3 |2 |12 (16) |
| | | | | |
|3 (6) |5 |2 |4 |14 (17) |
| | | | | |
|2 (4) |2 |4 |5 |12 (14) |

COA 1

COA 2

COA 3

Note: Higher number is better on scale

26. What is the best COA from this DECMAT without weighting? With weighting? COA 2 COA 2

27. What factor is most important with “weighting?”

a. Safety b. Cost c. Availability d. Technology

28. What COA is the worst based on the DECMAT? COA 1&3

29. Which COA is most available? COA 3 30. Which COA costs the most? COA 2

31. Which COA has the best technology? COA 3

32. SIGINT stands for? NSA stands for what in relation to SIGINT? Signature Intelligence National Security Agency is the federal that agency that uses this primarily

33. IMINT stands for? NRO stands for what in relation to IMINT? Imagery Intelligence National Reconnaissance Office is the federal agency that uses this primarily.

34. MASINT stands for? Name one form of MASINT technology being used. Measurement Geophysical

35. COMINT stands for? What are the two major sub-elements of COMINT? Communications Intelligence TELINT and ELINT

36. HUMINT stands for? DIA stands for what in relation to HUMINT? Human Intelligence Defense Intelligence Agency

37. OSINT stands for? What is the greatest source of OSINT? Open Source Intelligence The World Wide Web

ASSOCIATION MATRIX: Questions 38-42 [pic]

38. SUSPECT—A is potentially affiliated to whom? Suspect H&S

39. SUSPECT—D is positively affiliated to whom? Suspect G, H&O

40. SUSPECT—J is potentially affiliated to whom? Positively affiliated to whom? Suspect M, N&S Suspect K

41. Who is SUSPECT—S affiliated to? Suspect A, J, K, M, &N

42. SUSPECT—H is potentially affiliated to whom? No one

ACTIVITIES MATRIX: Questions 43-50

[pic] 43. Who has weapons experience? Smith, Ontwon, Walid, and Deng

44. Who takes part in nightlife activities? Smith Ontwon, Dnerst, Lafayette, Walid

45. Williams is associated closest to whom from this matrix? Deng, Tikriti Or Deng, Walid, Ontwon, and Smith I couldn’t read the matrix due to some of the letters not being legible.

46. Smith is associated closest to whom from this matrix? Ontwon, Walid, Williams, and Deng

47. What activity is Taylor suspected of? Culture/Political Events

48. Neesen might be connected to which of the following individuals? Williams and Deng

49. Who are couriers? Suspected couriers? Wenyok and Arabal Neesen and Tikriti

50. Who buys weapons? Karloff

EXTRA CREDIT (6-points each):

1EC. With respect to technology—explain the statement “the advantage of being number two.” If you are number one then you have to work out all of the bugs and problems that you will have be creating and putting it into production. By being number two you have seen someone else do the hard work and you learn from their mistakes.

2EC. Who is Robert M. Clark? Why is he important to intelligence analysis? Dr. Clark is the author of the book 'Intelligence Analysis: Estimation and Prediction' published in 1996 and of 'Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach', published in 2003. Robert M. Clark served in the USAF as an Electronics Warfare Officer and Intelligence Officer; in CIA as an analyst and Chief of the Directorate of Intelligence's Analytic Support Group; and was President and CEO of Stac, Inc., a technical intelligence and software company. He holds a Ph.D in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, with postdoctoral studies in communications engineering, and a J.D. from George Washington University. He is a Presidential Interchange Executive, a Professional Engineer, a member of the Virginia State Bar, and a Patent Attorney. He currently is a faculty member of the Intelligence Community Officers' Course.

ADKINS / MAY 2008

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