Intelligence Mission on ISIS Report

Chye Yue Zhang

SCTY 415 Studies in Intelligence II

Abstract
The threat of terrorism became very real when it caught the United States off guard and seized the attention of the rest of the world on the 11th of September 2001, using four hijacked airliners led by a terrorist organization named al-Qaeda in an attempt to conduct suicide missions of prominent landmarks of the U.S. The Twin Towers in New York were destroyed while the Pentagon in Washington D.C. suffered damage that took a year to repair. The total fatalities amounted to almost 3,000 while twice the amount of people were injured. Since then, most nations in the world have become wary of terrorist and militant groups and the potential threats that they pose. This can be seen by the tightened national securities of many countries especially on every possible stations and ports of all modes of transport that a terrorist may pose a threat to. At this point of time, although the al-Qaeda is no longer a prominent terrorist threat, another established and independent militant organization by the name of the Islamic State (IS) got the world concerned about its activities in the Middle East which in turn affected and continues to affect the rest of the world through its twisted beliefs and brutality. This paper aims to define this currently infamous group’s beliefs and objectives, how it works as an organization, how it is a threat to many countries all over the world, and the methods to effectively bring it down.

Introduction
What is ISIS?
The subject of this paper have gone by many names over the past few years. These names include the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), or more commonly just simply the Islamic State (IS). Being made up of fundamentalist Sunni Muslims and foreign jihadists, the organization wishes to form a single islamic state in the Middle East under a strict sharia law (Rowen, 2014). Due to its unorthodox activities in the Middle East, leaders of the world, especially those of neighbouring nations, grew concerned about the group’s existence and the immediate threats that it poses to the Middle Eastern countries. These activities include the release of photos and videos showing captured prisoners being beheaded or savagely killed, ruthlessly seizing control of territories in the region, destruction of cultural heritage and ancient artifacts in Iraq and Syria, and also recruitment of foreign jihadists through social media. The subsequent paragraphs will elaborate more about the terror organization.
Formation of the Islamic State
The IS was a terrorist group that started in 2004 as a part of al-Qaeda based in Iraq, hence it held the name the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). A jihadi group by the name of Jabhat al-Nusra was formed by ISI member Abu Muhammad al-Joulani in 2011 and became the leading group to fight in the Syrian conflict with the support of ISI (Tran, 2014). ISI’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi saw the opportunity for the ISI to be expanded into Syria after Jabhat al-Nusra’s power grew in the country. This move eventually formed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) (Tran, 2014). Even though ISIS had similar beliefs with the al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden of being radical anti-Western militant groups devoted to establishing an independent Islamic State in the region, ISIS have proved to be much more effective and brutal in its methods. This led to ISIS breaking away from the al-Qaeda and became an independent militant organization in the early 2014 (Thompson, Greene & Mankarious, 2015).
The Islamic State’s Beliefs and its Ultimate Aim
With its ultimate aim of forming an Islamic state under a single sharia law largely in the Middle East over the region of Turkey, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and even beyond, under a single Caliphate representing the Muslim community, the self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi continues to expand his control slowly in surrounding territories by force and recruiting jihadists from other parts of the world who has similar beliefs by broadcasting a series of obscene killings and destroying of ancient artifacts to make his statements. Although started out as a group within al-Qaeda, the differences in ideology and strategies caused the latter to distance itself as the former grew violent and intolerant even towards fellow Muslims (Rowen, 2014). Since the clean breakaway of ISIS from al-Qaeda in 2010, Baghdadi emerged as the leader. James Phillips, The Heritage Foundation’s senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs noted that “Unlike al-Qaeda, which saw itself as a revolutionary vanguard and focused its propaganda efforts on like-minded Islamist militants, ISIS is a mass movement led by a new generation of Islamist revolutionaries who have developed a much broader propaganda effort.” He added that ISIS’ efforts are broadcast through a range of digital platforms, usually the social media, to urge young Muslims to embrace the group’s radical Islamist ideology by joining the “caliphate” (Johnson, 2015).
Methods of Intelligence Collection
Many would have known by now that the U.S. have been utilizing drone operations to carry out air strikes and hunt down top ISIS terrorists (JPost.com staff, 2015). However, in order not to cause unwanted destruction of buildings and innocent citizens, lesser collateral damage as possible, and to confirm that a target is within range of air strikes, it has become of utmost importance that reliable intelligence is provided to the military or any independent initiatives conducting such campaigns so that they can exterminate the desired targets embedded in local populations as effectively as possible. Ex-special security officer of the United States Navy who has worked in the office of the Secretary of Defense, the Bureau of Diplomatic Security at the Department of State, the office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, and as a contractor for the Department of the Army, Robert Caruso (2014) noted that “at this current day and age, the adversary is not a state. They are ruthless, resourceful, and adept at weaving themselves into the fabric of their societies, making themselves virtually undetectable until they strike.” Therefore, it is of extreme importance to have proactive elements in clandestine services that even the United States do not adequately possess to effectively identify current and future threats. Intelligence collection is also extremely important as deep knowledge of today’s enemies is vital to understanding them, and defeating them (Caruso, 2014).
Covert operations. As explained in the previous paragraph, the use of human intelligence (HUMINT) will seem to be very useful in the fight against ISIS despite its drop in percentage among the intelligence collection methods worldwide. These clandestine operations should also be focussed in collecting HUMINT on high-quality targets overseas that are in no way connected to diplomatic entities. That way, the sources can provide information on strategic intent instead of just purely tactical and capability-based intelligence (Caruso, 2014). Such HUMINT collection techniques may include covertly spying on potential ISIS targets, breaking into ISIS headquarters to retrieve information, and deploying undercover agents to conduct covert interrogations. Covert interrogators may pose as harmless and friendly citizens to ask subtle questions while hiding the true ulterior motives.
Overt techniques. While interrogations can be carried out covertly, it can also be done overtly to collect valuable HUMINT. Captured ISIS militants or suspects can be interrogated for any information regarding their contact with the terrorist organization. Although it may not be advisable to deploy military troops for patrol openly in danger zones such as ISIS controlled territories, surveillance can still be carried out using surveillance drones to locate important ISIS camps and collect imagery intelligence (IMINT) to distinguish viable targets. The utilization of the U2 spy planes are unadvisable as there is a risk of the pilot getting caught in the case of any failures occurring mid-flight.
ISIS have been depending on social media in its recruitment by reaching out to the rest of the world with videos and images of shockingly sadistic violence designed to inspire and recruit people with borderline personalities to join them or carry out their personal terrorist attacks at where they live. Therefore, it is logical to limit the spread of such propaganda by suspending most of ISIS-related social media accounts and also spread a counter-propaganda at the same time (Berger, 2015). The suspensions can cripple the reach of ISIS to potential candidates in other parts of the world but should also allow enough collection of significant open-source intelligence (OSINT).
Assets involved. Judging by the covert and overt techniques advised in the paragraphs above, the assets needed for these intelligence collection methods to be effective can be easily deduced. Firstly, there is a need to deploy clandestine operatives and the equipment necessary to aid in various operations to collect the required human intelligence. These operatives are best to be chosen from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as they are well trained and should be conversant in covert operations such as break-ins and interrogations. Next, overt interrogations of prisoners and suspects can be done more effectively with the use of a polygraph so that spilled information can be verified before taking them into account. Lastly, the use of surveillance drones such as the RQ-11 Raven and strike drones such as the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper are essential for intelligence gathering, target elimination, and preventing the ISIS from advancing into more territories.
The Islamic State as an Organization
ISIS Organizational Structure
As the terror organization became increasingly established over time, ISIS started implementing governing structures to rule the territories it holds. Such governing systems are ironically alike some of the western counties whose values ISIS rejects, the only difference is a council to consider who should be beheaded in the place of democracy (Thompson et al., 2015). Despite having such a strong military force to choose its top candidates from, most of those who hold positions within the organization have provied to be battle-hardened veterans of the insurgency against the United States many years prior (Tran, 2014). Figure 1 provides a clear overview of how the organization is being run.

Figure 1. Leadership of the ISIS. The anatomy of ISIS: How the 'Islamic State' is run, from oil to beheadings (Thompson & Shubert, 2015).
As mentioned in the previous sections, the militant organization that is striking fear into the hearts of leaders around the world is lead by caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his cabinet of advisors. Baghdadi is regarded as mysterious due to how little is known about the ruthless leader except to have been born in Iraq in 1971 and to have earned a Ph.D. in Islamic Studies in Baghdad (Rowen, 2014). He is also known to have joined the insurgency after the invasion of Iraq by the United States in 2003 (Gunter, 2014).
After having survived multiple drone attacks and past civil wars, managing to unify militant groups in 2 different countries under one, recruited an army of jihadis from all over the world, conquered many cities from Syria to central Iraq, Baghdadi appointed few of his trusted followers to assist him in leading the organization. Directly reporting to him, Baghdadi’s two deputies that oversee ISIS’ opertions in Syria and Iraq are Abu Ali al-Anbari and Abu Muslim al-Turkmani respectively (Thompson & Shubert, 2015). As reported by Thompson & Shubert (2015), “the two deputies deliver orders to the governors in charge of the various sub-states in Syria and Iraq under ISIS control, who then instruct local councils on how to implement the executive branch's decrees on everything from media relations and recruiting to policing and financial matters.”
Also reporting directly to the top of the organizational chart, the Shura council is the caliphate’s religious monitor, appointed to make sure that all the local councils and governors are sticking to ISIS’ version of Islamic law. According to the Terrorism Research and Analysis Consortium’s (TRAC) Sounthern Africa Director Jasmine Opperman, “The Shura council also has the power to censure the leadership for running afoul of its interpretation of Sharia law” (Thompson & Shubert, 2015). She added that significant executions or operations that may cause ISIS to gain further prominence are subjected to the Shura council’s approval.
Also directly under the caliph, the Islamic State’s political leadership includes a cabinet of functionaries who are resposible for finances, military activities, intelligence, internal security, weapons, communications, prisoners, etc.
How ISIS Functions Under its Leadership
Overtime, ISIS have proved tthat it is evolvng into a government whose decision-making cannot be separated from its military capabilities (Thompson & Shubert, 2015). In order to create a sturdy organization, ISIS’ leader Baghdadi has drawn lessons from the failures of other militant organizations such as the al-Qaeda branch in Yemen whose pool of leaders depleted after being attacked by drones sent by the United States (Schmitt & Hubbard, 2015). A diplomat monitoring ISIS whom was not named noted “ISIS has learned from that and has formed a structure that can survive the losses of leaders by giving midlevel commanders a degree of autonomy. In that structure, the overall operation would not be immediately affected if Mr. Baghdadi were wounded or killed” (Schmitt & Hubbard, 2015).
On top of that, Baghdadi also learnt lessons from the leaks provided by ex-National Security Agency contractor, Edward Snowden on how the U.S. collects intelligence on militant threats. As a result of his findings, ISIS now has his leaders use couriers and encrypted channels that the Americans and its allies cannot decode, to exchange important information (Schmitt & Hubbard, 2015). Although many materials were seized during a U.S. commando raid in Syria in May 2015 that provided many of these information, there is still much to uncover about how the organization operates under its leadership and how it interacts with its growing number of allies and followers from the other Middle Eastern countries (Schmitt & Hubbard). It is also not known who will be next in line in the case of the death of Baghdadi.
ISIS Capabilities
ISIS Military Capabilities
ISIS military manpower. Through the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Centre’s (ITIC) assessment, as of late 2014 where ISIS is at one of its peaks comparing with its status thus far, there was a total of approximately 25,000 operatives in the 2 countries it controls the most, namely Iraq and Syria. 12,000 of them are of Syrian and Iraqi nationals while the other 13,000 are from the fellow muslim countries and western countries (ITIC, 2014). This numbers were at its peak due to the attractiveness caused by results of ISIS’ military successes and self-declaration of the Islamic Caliphate. The rise of its revenues and assets (e.g. infrastructure, oil fields, etc) after expansion of its territories were also pulling factors in its recruitment for those who expected higher salaries (ITIC, 2014). It is more logical to provide staus and figures when the adversary is at its peak so that expectations would not be compromised and adequate preparations can be made.
The U.S. intelligence agencies internal reports also stated that ISIS have been able to replace its troops it has lost in the past year almost efforlessly due to its strong recruitment, despite 1 billion dollars being spent in the fight against the group in the past year forked out by the western, Iraqi, and Syrian governments (Fisanakis, 2015). This figure was compared using the organization’s current strength with that of August 2014 when the Obama Administration initiated the campaign of launching airstrikes on ISIS. The almost-identical figures showed that there is no significant degradation on the manpower of the terror organization (Fitsanakis, 2015).
ISIS weapons. Apart from its healthy manpower, ISIS’ weapons are also a factor that made its army powerful. Past encounters and human intelligence have gathered that most of the organization’s weapons and ammunition were looted or captured from the Iraqi and Syrian military. ISIS possesses light arms such as motars, anti-tank and anti-aircraft launchers and missles, various types of rockets, and even machine guns mounted on vehicles (ITIC, 2014). ISIS have also acquired heavy machinery such as tanks, artilleries, armoured vehicles, and shoulder-launched, Scud, and air-to-surface missles (ITIC, 2014).
ISIS heavy machinery. Going in-depth of its prominent weapons, artillery, and heavy machinery systems, ISIS has approximately 30 T-55 and 5 to 10 T-72 Soviet intiated tanks (as shown in Figure 2.), in addition to self-propelled artilery and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (ITIC, 2014).

Figure 2. ISIS fighters on Russian tanks in Al-Raqqah (ITIC, 2014).
Through covert interrogations of local residents in Aleppo, there are claims of sightings of ISIS owning 3 MIG-21s and 1 MIG-23 captured from the Syrian air force base of Al-Jarrah (ITIC, 2014). Open source intelligence on ISIS social media accounts also suggests that the adversary troops are trained in using anti-aircraft systems called MANPADS (manportable air-defense systems) to prevent enemy aerial attacks (ITIC, 2014). This fact has been a concern as it endangers any Iraqi, Syrian and even the U.S. helicopter and airplanes that are on special missions in their vicinity. It is also unknown of how many of these anti-aircraft the ISIS posses.
ISIS’ use of chemical weapons. Lastly, there have been reports as of October 2014 suggesting that the Islamic State have been using chemical weapons against its enemies such as the Kurdish forces at Ayn al-Arab (ITIC, 2014). A doctor also claimed that he treated patients in Kobani who had symtomps of being exposed to chlorine gas and possibly another unknown chemical weapon which were first used during World War I. Such symtomps include burns on parts of the patients’ bodies, burning eyes, sore thorats, respiratory problems, and vomiting as shown in Figure 3. (ITIC, 2014).

Figure 3. Pictures of wounds taken in Kobani, posted on social networks by Kurdish activists suggesting the use of chemical weapons by ISIS against the Kurds (ITIC, 2014).
ISIS Financial Capabilities
Since late of 2012, ISIS have secured huge cashflows from oilfields in eastern Syria. It also got cashflows from smuggling raw materials retrieved from the territories it has seized and valuable antiques from archaeological digs (Tran, 2014). Moreover, after the successful control of Iraq’s second largest city Mosul in the summer of 2014, ISIS’ total assets grew from an approximate $875 million to $2 billion (Tran, 2014). Having seized more than half of Syria’s oil assets, in addition to other several oil fields it controls in Iraq, it was estimated that oil in the black market is possibly making ISIS up to $3 million a day (Thompson et al, 2015). As of late 2014, the organization made its revenues by selling its oil from its oil fields, sells wheat, does extortion, collect taxes and fees in its territories, loot from homes of people who fled, and through ransoms and donations. These actvities have allowed them to ean a total of $3 to $6 million a day (ITIC, 2014). Apart from the above mentioned big-scale activities, ISIS also increased its revenue by selling souvenirs as part of a propaganda campaign on websites and even Facebook pages (ITIC, 2014).
Besides buying military equipment, investing huge amounts of money in the civilian infrastructure of the local populations and in maintaining the governmental and organizational systems in Iraq and Syria, ISIS still has to pay its operatives their salaries. These operatives are paid $200 to $600 individually depending on their nationality and family size (ITIC, 2014).
ISIS Tactics
ISIS Territorial Tactics
As mentioned earlier in the report, countless sources believes that the self proclaimed Caliph Baghdadi wants to achieve a system where all the Muslims in the world live under one Islamic state ruled by sharia law.
Figure 4. A map purportedly showing the areas ISIS plans to have under its control within five years has been widely shared online. As well as the Middle East, North Africa and large areas of Asia, it also reveals ISIS' ambition to extend into Europe. Spain, which was Muslim-ruled until the late 15th Century, would form part of the caliphate, as would the Balkan states and eastern Europe, up to and including Austria (Hall, 2014).
Since the ambitious objective shown in figure 4 is considered a long term one, Baghdadi plans to first establish a caliphate spanning Syria and Iraq (Tran, 2014). As such, ISIS tactically built a headquarter in each of the countries in order to spread its ideas, have a firm hold of the territories it controls in the country, and conduct its planning there. These ‘capitals’ are chosen usually due to its size, resources, and location. In Syria, the IS headquarters is in Raqqa while its counterpart in Iraq is located in a city called Mosul where dams, oil fields, military equipment are rich in these areas. Figure 4 shows how the ISIS militants march into a city it has taken over since its establishment of a caliphate last year.

Figure 5. ISIS militants have formally declared the establishment of a caliphate, or Islamic state, in the vast stretches of the Middle East that have fallen under its control (Hall, 2014).
Due to the airstrikes conducted by the U.S. and its allies, in addition to the ground offensives by the local troops over the past year, ISIS was not able to retain much of its territories for long. As a result, it has lost territory in some areas and gained it in others (Gilsinan, 2015). In order to effectively analyse how ISIS is expanding in its territories, one may be able to have a better picture on its tactics. Over the past year, the main territories it has lost include the northwestern Syria along the border wih Turkey, outside Baghdad, and near the Iraqi city of Tikrit (Gilsinan, 2015). On the other hand, despite its resistance, it was able to expand its control over some territories as well. These territories include central Syria near Palmyra, and in Iraq near Ramadi which is the capital of Anbar province (Gilsinan, 2015). That being said, there are still somewhat different estimates of the change of the territories under ISIS control over the past year. The U.S. Defense Department indicated that the Islamic State have lost its privilege to operate freely in 25 to 30 per cent of Iraqi territory, while its influence in Syria remains mostly unchanged. It was also highlighted that ISIS have lost an approximate 9.4 per cent of its territory in the first half of 2015 (Gilsinan, 2015). Figure 5 shows a clear estimated map of the location and number of airstrikes up till 30th of September 2015, the zones where ISIS is free to operate (i.e. areas where ISIS does not necessarily posses defensible control, but its forces are free to roam and operate with low risks), and zones under ISIS control (i.e. areas where ISIS have a large degree of defensible control and any counter-ISIS force would be faced with serious ISIS resistance).
Figure 6. The rapid advance across Syria and Iraq by militant fighters from Islamic State (IS) in 2014 threw the region into chaos and led to US air strikes against their key positions (BBC News, 2015).
After much analysis, ISIS has found to be able to thrive more in areas with Sunni Arab as a majority of its population but was not as successful in areas where Sunni Arabs are a minority. This is further proven when its control over Kurdistan and near Baghdad has appeared to be traded for its holdings in central Syria.
Military Tactics
When Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul was taken over by ISIS, there were 30,000 men from the Iraqi army opposing only 3,000 ISIS militants. However, the Iraqi army decided to flee, as they are mostly inexperienced and badly trained Shite soldiers. This also proves that the ISIS militants are well trained and mentally prepared to fight as compared to the force opposing them.
First and foremost, the militants have strong religious beliefs that they are fighting for a just cause, that each of their acts are dictated by god and not by their free will. This gives them the willingness to engage in combat, the contempt for danger and death, for there can only be two possible outcomes: victory or death. With this mindset instilled in them, their ruthlessness publicized by sophisticated media apparatus tend to install fear and demoralize their opponents even before the battle (Invisible Dog, 2014).
Next, the weapons ISIS uses are of those that produce far greater firepower than their enemies. As mentioned in the military capabilities earlier in the report, these weapons come from the Iraqi and Syrian military left over after battles. However, most of its weapons are from the illegal market where the ISIS can easily access and splurge on weapons with high firepower due to its vast accumulated wealth. Such weapons include, artillery, tanks, fighter jets, chemical weapons, etc.
The ISIS also grants its commanders in operations a lot of flexibility. The organization only gives a specific target and the commander will be able to make the call and decide how to carry out the operation (Invisible Dog, 2014). There is therefore a decentralized command and control system and tactics, strategies and operations are as one. This type of command and control system uses a bottom-up approach rather than a top-down one where it relies on the commanders’ combat skills and not the organization’s (Invisible Dog, 2014).
Lastly, after the airstrikes began, the ISIS has been extremely careful when they carry out their plans and operations. For example, they moved their headquarters to the ground while reducing their size and multiplying them. They have also spread their troops and moved to cities where they can mix with the local population, avoid using mobile phones and radio communications, and plant their flags everywhere to confuse their enemies. They move their key figures on motorbikes instead of cars and burn tires or oil to create black fumes to avoid air strikes. During battle, they use conventional tactics of planting mines and setting explosive traps (Invisible Dog, 2014).
Other Tactics
ISIS have also released a video early this year which showed ancient Iraqi artifacts being destroyed by the militants with sledgehammers, pickaxes and jackhammers after its taking of Mosul. This is considered a tactic employed in cultural genocide to eradicate any hint of Iraq’s non-Muslim culture so that they can reform the region into a single caliphate (Mendoza, 2015). These cultural artifacts include 3,000 years old statues in the Mosul Museum and rare ancient books and manuscripts from the Mosul Public Library. Figure 7 shows ISIS militants in an attempt to destroy the statues in the Mosul Museum. The attack on people’s cultural works can be tantamount to attacking its very identity and one can only imagine the pain felt by the Iraqis at the destruction of their national treasures. Figure 7. The destruction of ancient Iraqi artifacts – a tactic employed in cultural genocide – is part of the Islamic State militants' efforts to reform the region into a single, homogenous Muslim caliphate under its control (Mendoza, 2015).
ISIS Threat
Threat to the Middle East
With all of its power concentrated in Iraq and eastern Syria, it is straight forward to deduce that ISIS poses the most threat in the region. Most of its influence also affects the nations in the Middle East. Moreover, ISIS plans to expand its control of territories in the region by taking over Iraq and create a Sunni Islamist State that will be able to initiate military operations at other neighbouring states such as Jordan and Lebanon (Misztal & Michek, 2014). On the other hand, in contrary to popular beliefs that ISIS poses a highly possible threat to central Middle East and the Gulf, the reality is likely to be somewhat different. It may be true that ISIS still pose an immediate threat to Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but reports show that these communities are deeply empowered, as compared to the disenfranchised Sunni Arab population in Iraq and the neglected Sunni Arab groups of eastern Syria. The governments of these two nations will be able to depend on its allied tribal groups to protect the areas in which ISIS will seek to take over (Hawes, n.d.). To the north and east of ISIS, it will prove to be even more difficult to infiltrate as they face populations in Turkey and Iran that are also, for different reasons, likely to be extremely resistant to is blandishments (Hawes, nd.). Although its threats are more viable in Lebanon, there is an offset of shared interests in the county due to the leading Shia, Christian and Sunni political groups in it (Hawes, n.d.). Due to the wars caused by ISIS in the Middle East the past year, hudreds of thousands of people have fled in fragile boats in hopes to cross the Mediterraneant to Europe. Most of these people came frome Iraq, Syria and Libya where most of the fightings were concentrated at and they are willing to risk their families’ and their own lives on the dangerous trip, abandoning Islam for Christianity, athism, or liberalism (Reuters, 2015).
Threat to the West
The ISIS threat to Europe became more imminent when the terror organization released a video in February 2015 that showed its militants taking the lives of 21 Egyptian Christians on the Mediterranean shores of Libya (McDonald-Gibson, 2015). This is the same coastline where many people tried to set sail in insubstantial boats as discussed in the previous paragraph. The video also indicated by one of the militants that ISIS threatens to conquer Rome. When such a high record numbers of people are fleeing to the harsh sea in hopes to seek sanctuary in Europe, it is putting a political and economic strain on the nations. This is because the fact that migrants who survived the journey come ashore raises concerns that ISIS could also be sending its militants to Europe hidden among refugees (McDonald-Gibson, 2015).
Another ISIS strategy that proves to be a threat to the European countries even till now is the recruitment of its younger population who are radicalized either online or on the battlefield. The European Union law enforcement agency, EUROPOL is concerned about its citizens who have returned home after travelling to the Middle East to fight alongisde the jihadist organization in Iraq and Syria. “Although not all of them are radicalized enough to the extent of staging an attack at home upon their return, but a number of them have that potential” as highlighted by Rob Wainwright, the direcor of EUROPOL (McDonald-Gibson, 2015). The concern of this imminent threat is further backed up by the occurrences in Belgium when a French opened fire in a Jewish Museum killing four people in 2014, and when the police caught two Belgiums who were in the midst of plotting an attack on police officers on the streets of Belgian cities earlier this year in January (McDonald-Gibson, 2015).
Despite its activeness in fighting ISIS, the United States may not necessary be exposed to the risk caused jihadist organization as much as the nations in Europe. Government officials did however worry that the Americans or Europeans that went to fight with ISIS will return to U.S. to carry out attacks. This possibility has yet to occur and is later deemed that it may never occur (Misztal & Michek, 2014).
Threat to the Rest of the World
ISIS also pose a threat more or less on a worldwide scale mostly because of its gruesome videos it released over the months and its recruitment of foreign fighters with similar beliefs from countries all over the world. Till the mid of the current year, there were nearly thirty thousand fighters from a hundred countries all over the world recruited to join the ISIS ranks, according to a report to the UN Security Council. Figure 8 shows the number of fighters per million people in the population recruited to join the ranks of ISIS.

Figure 8. Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria: Where Do They Come From? (Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 2015).
Conclusion
In summary, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or in short, the Islamic State (IS) aims to represent the entire musim community under one Islamic State ruled by sharia law. Through its beliefs, it has successfully recruited many of its troops from nations all over the world. As a result, it poses a threat to many countries worldwide who are concerned that the organization’s twisted and brutal mindset will pollute into youngsters’ minds and in turn join the IS or conduct and independent attack at home. Despite having a relatively small miitary force compared to its adversities, the ISIS is still able to maintain its superiority with great firepower it purchased in the black markets with the wealth it got from selling oil. Known for its unorthordox methods that are considered inhumane to many from the videos it released over the past year such as the beheadings and torture of its prisoners, governments worldwide are growing concerned on the organization’s influence and are striving to take it down mostly with air bombing campains.
Recommendations and Opinion
As included in the body of this report, the ISIS have not been weakened much despite all the efforts such as airstrikes conducted by the superpowers and ground resistance by the Middle Eastern allies. This is due to its strong recruitment on people with similar beliefs, its wealth accumulated mostly from selling of oil produced by the oil fields it controls in its territories, its firepower brought from the black market, and its military tactics involving well-trained troops that has beliefs that are in line with the bigger organization. ISIS have also learnt to avoid enemy detection so so ensure that they are not easy targets for air strikes. These tactics were elaborated earlier in the report under its Military Tactics.
After much research before finalizing the report, the seemlingly strong organization of the Islamic State has weaknesses that can be exploited too. Even though the military of the Iraq, Syria and the neighbouring nations may not be as well-trained as the militants of ISIS, governments from the west can extend their help to conduct trainings and planning of tactics. Resources can also be shared among them as long as diplomatic relations are forged for a single unanimous cause of defeating ISIS. Intelligence agencies can also work together as the resourceful Western nations will not be able to collect better intelligence than the Middle Eastern nations on ISIS due to their locations and cultural differences.
The resources of ISIS should also be discontinued in order to prevent them from accumulating wealth and buying weapons and equipment. Such methods can be temporarily disabling the oil fields, discouraging buyers to purchase oil from ISIS, and possibly cut off ties of ISIS from the illegal market.
Lastly, despite efforts to suspend ISIS-related social media accounts, ISIS still has other ways to promote its beliefs and small successes. Therefore, it is important for individual nations to conduct a counter propaganda to educate their own citizens, especially youngsters of ISIS’ wrongdoings to prevent them from being inspired or recruited.
In conclusion, I believe that the fight against ISIS and eventually defeating it will not be an overnight affair. Therefore, the most effective foremost step to take is for Western nations and Middle Eastern ones to forge ties and implement an effective campaign against ISIS. With the resources and military expertise of the West and the assessibility to ISIS and the understanding of culture of the Middle Eastern allies, it is definite that there will be a better chance of ensuring mission success in the battle against ISIS.

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