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Internatioanl Marketing

In: Philosophy and Psychology

Submitted By ravicf960
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Scenarios planning is the main technique to study the future, and it have been used since long time by the government planners, corporate managers and military analysts, as important tool to help them in making decision to face the uncertainty. The idea of scenario planning is to establish about possible future where it can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers. Today the scenarios planning they have become extremely popular. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003).
Scenario planning
is
a
group‐based
decision
making
tool, which
has
its
roots
in
post‐
WWII
military
planning
and
the
petroleum
industry
of
the
1970s such as Royal Dutch Company.
Unlike
its
cousins, 
forecasting
 and
 prediction, 
 scenario
 planning
 does
 not
 attempt
 to
 project
 future
outcomes
 based
 on
 data
 from
 the
 past.
 
 These
 methods
 can
 often
 lead
 to
 “tunnel
vision”, 
 due
 to
 their
 preference
 of
 one
 outcome
 over
 another. Scenario
 planning, 
 as
 described
 by
 Peter
 Schwartz, 
 Chairman
 of
 Global
 Business
Network
(GBN),
“…is
a
tool
for
better
decision
making…Business
and
governments
employ
this
tool
because
it
helps
them
to
make
better
strategic
decisions.”

 (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010) The History
of
Scenario
Planning
Scenario
 planning
 arose
 out
 of
 a
 need
 to
 plan
 for
 futures
 filled
 with
 much
uncertainty.
This
uncertainty
is
particularly
magnified
in
military
operations,
which
is
 why
 scenario‐type
 planning
 can
 be
 traced
 back
 to
 19‐century
 military
 planners.
Military
operations,
by
their
very
nature,
are
fraught
with
all
kinds
of
uncertainties.
Your
enemy
is
constantly
trying
to
deceive
you
and
hide
his
movements
from
you.
Factors
 beyond
 your
 control,
 such
 as
 weather,
 frequently
 change.
 The
 combined
actions
 of
 thousands
 upon
 thousands
 of
 men,
 over
 vast
 distances,
 often
 lead
 to
unforeseen
 consequences.
 For
 these
 reasons,
 military
 planners
 often
 take
 the
approach
 of
 envisioning
 multiple
 different
 stories
 of
 what
 might
 happen
 in
 the
future,
 known
 as
 scenarios,
 and
preparing
a
 plan
for
what
 to
do
 if
those
 scenarios
come
to
pass.
 ( Chermack, T. J. 2003). 
.
 


Scenario planning is still used widely across the globe, where a lot of companies still using it, not only that a lot of government uses scenario planning such as Singaporean government. And it has a lot of advantages by using this approach. ( Mietzner & Reger, 2005)
Firstly it has multiple futures where the strength of scenario is that it not only define one future but several realisable future placed side by side with other possible scenarios. Here we can use the example the US army force where they make a lot of option ahead of them before entering any country. And try to study the future to get the best outcome as possible. In here it is important to note that ‘foresight’ concepts differ from ‘forecasting’. In the past, efforts were often made to forecast the future as precisely as possible. Nevertheless, different developments in linked to the fields should leave open several possible developments. (Lyons, J. V. 2008)

Secondly, scenarios expose up the mind to previously unimaginable possibilities and challenge long-held internal beliefs of an organisation; moreover, the use of scenarios can change the corporate culture, convincing its managers and leaders to reconsider radically the hypotheses on which they have grounded their strategy. The best example can be used here is adidas sport company. Where after their changed how the culture thinks the company profits went up and they have been on the top for several years in there industry. (Lyons, J. V. 2008)
Another benefit of scenario planning , scenarios are an suitable method to recognise ‘weak signals’, technological discontinuities or disruptive events and include them into long-range planning; as a consequence, the organisation is better prepared to handle new situations as they arise and to promote proactive leadership initiatives. Where the scenario planning can help the company or the organization to change from weak points to make it strength point. As we know apple where Steve jobs could manage to make Apple from less than ordinary company to the one of the best company in the globe, by adapting technological scenario planning. ( Mietzner & Reger, 2005)
Another function of scenarios beyond the planning aspect is improving communication: scenarios can lead to the creation of a common language for dealing with strategic issues by opening a strategic conversation within an organisation; this aspect is emphasised especially by( van der Heijden 1996).
Another function beyond the planning feature is the coordinating function: during the scenario process the goals, opportunities, risks, and strategies are joint between the members which supports the organisation and employment of actions. In fact, the organisational learning and the decision making process is improved. Where the BP giant British company improved the their decision making process, and helped the to balance the interest of the organisation and the employee, after using scenario planning. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003).
Lastly the great number of different scenario techniques points out that the ways of building a scenario are very flexible and can be used to the specific task/ situation. Where it was always the solution of the Giant company Shell for almost all there situation, or problem.

Scenario planning is an instrument for raising awareness of the likelihood of a range of different ways in which the future may reveal, built on some of the factors through which the outside world affects us. The factors of high uncertainty, project those factors forward and develop creative divisions to describe what affects that projected future may have on an organisation. For better understanding, we can compare an organisation to a ship. Even a small ship (or organisation) takes time to turn or stop or even to change direction. ( Mietzner & Reger, 2005)
There are three main reason that made scenario planning successful and have a lot of advantages the three fendemntal reason are:
Take the Long-View. The day-to-day work of most organizations is ambitious by near-term concerns, from quarterly profits to 1-3 year planning prospects. Though, in realism, most strategic choices — from new product concepts to shifts in policy to new leadership — are choices that will play out a long way into the future. (Lyons, J. V. 2008)
Think from the "Outside-in". Most organizations are astonished by discontinuous events because they spend their time and effort thinking about what they are most familiar with: their own organization. They think from the inside — the things they can control — out to the world in which they operate.
Embrace Multiple Perspectives. The introduction of multiple perspectives — different voices that will shed new light on your strategic challenge — helps you better understand and challenge your own assumptions while painting a bigger picture of an issue or idea. Following these principles makes it more likely that the scenario work will be successful in challenging current assumptions and conventional wisdom. This, in turn, opens doors to new insights. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003).

In contrast to these stated strengths, scenario techniques have several weaknesses or disadvantage of scenario planning such as. The repetition of scenario is very time-consuming. Therefore, there could be a wish to shorten scenario building to a half-day or one day activity. However, this may not give participants enough time. And it won’t give to effective result that it should give. (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010)
A more qualitative approach has to put a strong importance on the selection of appropriate participants/ experts, and in practice this could not be an easy task to accomplish. Thirdly further, it should not be ignored that a deep understanding and knowledge of the field under investigation is absolutely necessary. Data and information from different sources have to be collected and interpreted which makes scenario building even more time-consuming. ( Mietzner & Reger, 2005)
Senario planning is still being used in today’s world famous example occurred in South Africa in 1991, when the creation of the Mont Fleur scenarios catalyzed a nationwide discussion about the possibilities for post-Apartheid South Africa. These scenarios were developed as the political negotiations between the ANC and the apartheid-era National Party were taking place. The scenarios were presented as alternative outcomes of difficult decisions that the key stakeholders in South Africa would have to make (e.g. reconciliation versus revenge, the role of private property, minority rights for whites). The dialogue that stemmed from these scenarios enabled the stakeholders to think through the implications of their decisions and consequently adjust their strategies. ( Chermack, T. J. 2003).
In recent years, scenario thinking has become one of the most popular strategy and long-term thinking tools, used by many of the world's top companies, influential government agencies, and community organizations and foundations to make sense of and succeed in a turbulent, uncertain world. (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010)

In Conclusion scenario
planning
 offers
 us
 this
 opportunity
 by
 allowing
 us
 to
 see
 a
 microcosm
 of
 the
corporate
 culture
 in
 action.
 On
 the
 casual
 side
 of
 that,
 scenario
 planning
 can
 be
 a
lengthy
 and
 involved
 process,
 depending
 on
 how
 it
 is
 implemented.
 It
 can
 be
 a
workshop
run
over
two
weekends,
or
it
can
be
a
lengthy
strategic
process
spanning
months.
 Obviously,
 if
 your
 real
 goal
 is
 simply
 to
 find
 out
 how
 an
 organization’s
culture
works,
you
may
want
to
choose
the
shorter
variety, There
 are
 many
 opportunities
 to
 observe
 the
 culture
 in
operation,
from
the
topics
they
choose
to
study,
to
the
way
that
the
team
members
interact
with
each
other,
to
the
way
they
choose
to
implement
the
results. (Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. 2010)

Word count 1892
Body word count 1100

Reference list

Chermack, T. J. (2003). A theory of scenario planning. (Order No. 3095454, University of Minnesota). ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, , 206-206 p. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/305319696?accountid=12528. (305319696).
Lyons, J. V. (2008). The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the pacific northwest.(Order No. 3308209, Gonzaga University). ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, , 185-n/a. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/304353850?accountid=12528. (304353850).
Mietzner , D., & Reger, G. (2005). Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight. Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning, 1(2), Retrieved from Int. J. Technology Intelligence and Planning

Schlegel, G. L., & Murray, P. (2010). Next generation of S&OP: Scenario planning with predictive analytics & digital modeling. The Journal of Business Forecasting, 29(3), 20-23,28-30. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/871417184?accountid=12528 van der Heijden, K. (1996) Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester

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