應 用 經 濟 論 叢 ， 89 期 ， 民 國 100 年 6 月

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The Dynamics Analysis and Simulation of the Macro Economic Behavior of Taiwan’s Invigorating Economy Consumption Voucher
Wen-Chin Wei∗

Abstract
Given the severe global economic downturn, countries are using a variety of possible economic policies to try to help their economies recover. This study adopts system dynamics from the dynamic perspective to investigate how Taiwan’s decision to issue time-limited consumption vouchers will influence macro economical behaviors. The simulation led to following primary results. First, in regard to the highest marginal propensity to consume (MPC = 0.3) and the lowest substitution rate of consumption (SR = 0.6741), the distribution of the consumption voucher will generate the biggest multiplier coefficient (0.6830) and Y (GDP). Second, as SR increases by 1%, the multiplier effect decreases by 0.44%. Third, the contribution percentages of consumption vouchers on the first, second, third, and the accumulated total of these three quarters of private consumption in 2009 ranged from 2.13-2.55, 0.25-0.30, 0.19-0.22, and 0.86-1.02 of a percentage, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution percentage of consumption vouchers in the first, second, third and the accumulated total of these three quarters of GDP in 2009 ranged from 1.36-1.63, 0.15-0.18, 0.11-0.13, and

∗

Assistant Professor, Department of Public Finance & Taxation in National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Taiwan, Republic of China (R.O.C.). Corresponding Author. Tel: (07)3814526 ext. 6216, Email: wwc@cc.kuas.edu.tw.

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Dynamics Analysis and Simulation of the Macro Economic Behavior of Taiwan’s Invigorating Economy Consumption Voucher

0.51-0.61 of a percentage, respectively. Fourth, when the government adopts a constant budget policy, the increased distribution of consumption vouchers will