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International Finance Mini Case

In: Business and Management

Submitted By nguyendieulinh
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Question 3: Create a financial analysis of Santiago’s choices and use it to make a recommend a solution to his problem.
- Phân tích trường hợp cần USD của ông Santiago:
Ông Santiago là một người kinh doanh dược phẩm, công việc của ông yêu cầu một nguồn cung đô la lớn để thanh toán các đơn đặt hàng. Tuy nhiên trong thời gian Tổng thống Venezuela Hugo Chavez cầm quyền và đưa ra các chính sách thay đổi trên các lĩnh vực kinh tế, tài chính cụ thể là kiểm soát vốn làm những người kinh doanh như ông Santiago khó có thể tiếp cận được nguồn đô la cần thiết. Ông Santiago đã tham gia kêu gọi phản đối Tổng thống Chávez do đó bị CADIVI không cho phép hoán đổi đồng Bolivar (đồng tiền của Venezuela) thành Đôla.
Trong khi đó, Santiago có một hợp đồng phải thanh toán 30.000 đôla Mỹ các sản phẩm dược từ các nhà cung cấp Mỹ. Do không mua được Đô la từ CADIVI ông đã buộc phải tìm kiếm nhiều các nguồn thay thế nhằm thực hiện nghĩa vụ thanh toán bằng đồng Đô la của mình, mặc dù các cách thức này tốn kém hơn và không hợp pháp. Kể từ khi chính sách kiểm soát vốn được ban hành, việc tìm kiếm mua bán đồng đô la đã trở thành hoạt động hàng tuần của Santiago. Ngoài con đường chính thống mua bán đồng đô la qua CADIVI, Santiago còn có thể mua bán đồng đôla thông qua thị trường chợ đen và thị trường xám với mức giá cao và chứa đựng nhiều nguy hiểm tiềm ẩn.
- Ngày 10.03.2004, Santiago đã nhận được CADIVI cho phép mua 10.000 đô la với tỷ giá chính thức Bs1920/USD, đồng thời Santiago sẽ phải trả cho CADIVI thêm 1 khoản phí 500 Bolivars cho mỗi đồng đô la mua được. Như vậy, tỷ giá thực sự mà Santiago phải trả để mua 10.000 đô của CADIVI là Bs2420/USD. Số tiền mà Santiago phải bỏ ra là:
10.000 x 2420 = 24.200.000 (Bs)
Còn 20.000 đô la còn thiếu, Santiago nên giải quyết bài toán tài chính này như thế nào để mang lại lợi ích cao nhất? * Trường hợp 1: Mua tại thị trường chợ xám (tính theo tỷ giá ngày 11/03/2004 là Bs 3.400/USD)
Số tiền Santiago phải trả là:
3.400 x 20.000 = 68.000.000 (Bs) * Trường hợp 2: Mua tại thị trường chợ đen (tính theo tỷ giá ngày 11/03/2004 là Bs 4.080/$ (chênh lệch 20% với thị trường chợ xám))
Số tiền Santiago phải trả là:
4.080 x 20.000 = 81.600.000 (Bs)
Chênh lệch giá cả giữa hai thị trường xám và đen:
81.600.000 – 68.000.000 = 13.600.000 (Bs)
Dễ dàng nhận ra rằng Santiago nên lựa chọn phương án mua tại thị trường xám vì sẽ giúp ông tiết kiệm được 13.600.000Bs
Tuy nhiên, để chọn ra phương án tổi ưu, Santiago cũng cần phải cân nhắc đến các yếu tố khác như: giới hạn thời gian của các hóa đơn thanh toán, chi phí để thực hiện các giao dịch không hợp pháp, các rủi ro không lường trước…

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