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Introduction
In recent 3 years, Japanese Yen has depreciated against USD rapidly, from 78.6 USD/JPY in 2012 to about 120 USD/JPY in 2015. Will Japanese Yen continue to depreciate against USD? This question is worth researching. This study will be totally divided into two parts. The first part aims to analyze the past performance that how much JPY appreciated or depreciated against USD between Jan 1st 2015 to Oct 31st 2015 and the reason about this past performance. Meanwhile, through different methods, the second part try to forecast exchange rate of USD/JPY in the future at the end of 2016.

JPY/USD from Jan 1st 2015 to Oct 31st 2015
According to the following Figure 1, the close exchange rate of JPY/USD in Jan 1st 2015 was $0.00835/¥ and it was $0.00829/¥ in Oct 31st 2015. It seemed that the exchange rate remain stable within the 10 months, while the big fluctuation existed during this period. The lowest close exchange rate JPY/USD was $0.00796/¥ and the highest one was $0.00861/¥. Specifically, if a speculator used 1,000,000 Yen to buy dollar at the highest exchange rate and sold these dollar for Yen at the lowest exchange rate, he would obtain 1,081,714 Yen at the end, whose profit was much higher than depositing in the bank. Therefore, the fluctuation between JPY and USD made the exchange rate hard to predict. In addition, the percentage of change in exchange rate was – 0.72% during this period. It indicated that JPY had depreciated 0.72% against USD from 1/1/2015 to 31/10/2015. Notably, JPY suffered depreciation against USD beginning form 2012 and it depreciated almost 30% against USD in the whole year in 2012.

In this study, we think that easy money policy is one of the major reason which caused depreciation of Japanese Yen during these years. Since 2012, “Abenomics” is used to stimulate Japanese economy development. According to Financial Times Lexicon (2013), “Abenomics” is based on “three arrows”, fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. Abe advocate to set inflation targeting at 2% yearly, negative interest rates, broadening public investment and revision of the Bank of Japan Act. All these measures attempt to create quantitative easing policy and stimulate Japanese economic development. According to Bank of Japan (2013), the bank announced that they would buy ¥60 - ¥70 trillion of bonds per year beginning form 4th April 2013 and the amount increased to ¥80 trillion in 2014. As a result, the money supply of Yen increase and the demand of Yen decrease. Meanwhile, Japanese people put their money in equity or debt rather than in bank because of negative interest rate. Therefore, Yen depreciated rapidly in the recent year against USD. Additionally, trade deficit is the second major reason cause depreciation in Yen. Figure 2 pointed out that the trade deficit has narrowed since Feb 2015. It even achieved trade surplus in March and October. The narrowing trade deficit indicated that deprecation of Yen would gradually stop. The change of exchange rate JPY/USD between Jan 1st and 31st Oct in 2015 also prove this opinion.

The next part is about the analysis of prediction in exchange rate JPY/USD in 5 different ways.

Forecast of USD/JPY from Dec 1st 2015 to Dec 31st 2016

Technical Analysis
In the technical analysis, this study try to use two technical indicators to forecast exchange rate of USD/JPY. The first one is Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), one of the simplest and most effective momentum indicators available. This study will not include the complex calculation about MACD but just discuss future exchange rate by the usage of MACD. The most common MACD signals are signal line crossovers. Once the MACD line turns up (down) and crosses above (below) the signal line, it represents that Yen will depreciate (appreciate) against USD. Besides, centerline crossovers are the prevalent signal in MACD. A bullish centerline crossover happens when the MACD line moves above the zero line to become positive and vice versa. For example, in the Figure 3, MACD line was below the signal line after June (the first mark) and Yen had continually appreciated against USD until July. Therefore, it could be observed in Figure 3 that the MACD line moved above the zero line to turn positive on Nov. Although MACD line is approaching the signal line, the trend is still strength enough for MACD line keeping on the positive side. It indicates that Yen will continue to depreciate against USD within recent future.

The second method is to forecast the exchange rate by Simple Moving Average. The implied rational is that if the exchange rate of USD/JPY is above the moving average, Yen will continue to depreciate and vice versa. Therefore, according to Figure 4, exchange rate of USD/JPY is higher than SMA (20), which indicates that Yen will go on depreciating. Meanwhile, exchange rate of USD/JPY remains above SMA (250). It shows that Yen will depreciate in the long term. As a result, at the end of 2016 Yen will depreciate based on technical analysis.

Current Account Consideration
According to Figure 5, it exhibits that the trade balance and current account balance in Japan. Comparing with Figure 6, American trade balance and current account balance, Japan is theoretically expected to appreciate against USD because Japan is running a current account surplus and America is running both deficit in trade balance and current account balance. However, if we expand the time series and focus on the exchange rate between USA and Japan, it is difficult to determine that whether Japanese Yen is appreciate or depreciate against USD. Since 1991, U.S. has been already running trade deficit but Yen keeps depreciating in the recent 3 years. Therefore, this implies that current account consideration is a less important factor to affect exchange rate between Yen and USD.

Forward Rate and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP)
Forward rate analysis and UIRP analysis are linked so we put it together to discuss. In the forward market about foreign exchange rate, forward contract is people’s expectation in future exchange rate between two currencies. In Figure 7, there are spot exchange rate at Nov 2nd and 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month forward rate of Yen/USD. It is obvious that 6 - month forward exchange rate of ¥/$ (122.28) is higher than spot rate (120.75) on 2nd Nov. This indicates that investors expect Yen will depreciate against USD in 180 days.
For the 6 - month forward contract, we calculate its forward premium as the following formula: f180, ¥v$ = [F180 (¥/$) – S (¥/$)] / S (¥/$) × 360 / 180
180 - Day forward exchange rate of Yen/USD is 122.28 ¥/$
Spot rate is 120.75 ¥/$.
Finally, we compute the forward premium is 2.53%.
Thus, we can conclude that USD will appreciate against Japanese Yen in the future because 180 - day forward premium is positive. In the other words, Yen will depreciate against USD.

Similarly, we use UIRP to forecast the future exchange rate between Yen and USD. The reason why this study choose UIRP for analysis is that IRP is covered and the future exchange rate is already locked at F (¥/$). Meanwhile, the transactions costs and capital controls influence accuracy of IRP. Whereas, UIRP is uncovered and it is formed based on investors’ expectation. In reality, UIRP is mostly to be hold but IRP cannot. As a result, we use the following formula to analyze.
(1 + i$) / (1 + i¥) = E(S$/¥) / S$/¥
E(S$/¥) represents the expected exchange rate of USD ($) against JPY (¥).
There are other conditions’ information: i$ = 0.37%, i¥ = 0%, S$/¥ = 0.00828.
So we can compute the expected exchange rate of USD against JPY is 0.00831. It is obvious that Yen will appreciate in the future by comparing with E(S$/¥) and S$/¥ (0.00831 > 0.00282).

Monetary policy
In recent year, Japanese government has published many money easing policy to stimulate economic development. As mentioned in the past performance part, Bank of Japan continued to increase 80 trillion Yen yearly in order to achieve 2% inflation rate. This will definitely augment the supply of Japanese Yen. On the other hand, US Federal Reserve signals December rate rise more likely and American economy is still powerful. Therefore, because the decrease in demand of Yen and increase in supply of Yen, Yen will depreciate against USD. It should be noticed that monetary policy normally influence the most on the exchange rate among these factors. Hence, strong trend of depreciation in Yen is destined.

Conclusion
Based on the comprehensive consideration on the five forecasting ways, we conclude that Japanese Yen will depreciate against USD from Dec 1st 2015 to Dec 31st 2016. Although UIRP does not support our conclusion but other four analysis obtain the same conclusion. Technical analysis and monetary policy provide strong evidence to prove our opinion.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Reference list 1. Bank of England (27 May 2013). Quantitative easing – injecting money into the economy. Retrieved from: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Pages/home.aspx 2. Definition of Abenomics (2013). Financial Times Lexicon. Retrieved November 25, 2015 from http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=abenomics

3. Forward Rate: Forecasting future spot exchange rate of USD/JPY. Retrieved from: http://www.hsbcnet.com/gbm/fwcalc-disp#

4. Introduction of the "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing" (2013). Bank of Japan . Retrieved November 26, 2015 from http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf

5. Powell, B. (January 26, 2015). Falling Prices Are Bad for You. Newsweek.
Retrieved from: http://www.newsweek.com/falling-prices-are-bad-you-
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6. Technical Analysis: Forecasting USD/JPY based on MACD. Retrieved from: http://www.aastocks.com/sc/forex/quote/chart.aspx?symbol=USDJPY 7. UIRP: Japan 1-year government bond interest rate. Retrieved from: https://ycharts.com/indicators/japan_1_year_government_bond_interest_rate

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