Submitted By LaNesha2012

Words 1145

Pages 5

Words 1145

Pages 5

La Nesha H.Tyler

MTH 540:

Strayer University

Scientific management is based on the applying systematic approaches to solving problems and making decisions. This guide to decision making provides a number of mathematical techniques derived from varied sources such as natural science, mathematics, engineering and statistics (Taylor, 2010). One such technique used in scientific management is the Forecasting method. A Forecast provides a reasonable prediction for a future event. Being able to predict the future can provide a valuable asset for any organization. Predictions will not always be one hundred percent accurate, but they can be a reasonable guide to making decisions based on systematic data. Taylor, 2010, discusses two widely used forecasting methods; time series analysis and regression. This project will present information on forecasting in the form of a storyboard.

This project will provide an overview of forecast methods, how forecasts are measured, and identify different types of forecasting methods. According to author Bernard W. Taylor, 2010, “a variety of forecasting exist, and their applicability is dependent on the time frame of the forecast, the existence of patterns in the forecast, and the number of variables to which the forecast is related” (p.682). Time frame classifies forecast into three different categories, short –range, medium-range, and long-range forecast. Short-range forecast are forecast such as Weather forecast in that they predict daily, or weekly short-range outcomes. Medium-range forecast are typically a month to a year, and Long-range forecast are long-term patterns that are considered trends. These Forecasts are documented and observed from one to two years (Taylor, 2010). It is very important to make reliable predictions, and using forecasting, but the further out the prediction the less accurate the…...

...JET Copies Case Problem Assignment #1 MAT540, Strayer University Assignment#1: JET Copies Case Problem According to the discrete distrubution, the number of days (y) needed to repair the copier is as follows (where “R2” is a random value in the excel sheet between and 0 and 1): 0 < R2 < .2, then it takes 1 day .2 < R2 < .65, then it takes 2 days .65 < R2 < .9, then it takes 3 days .9 < R2 < 1, then it takes 4 days James estimated that the time between break-downs was probably between 0 and 6 weeks, with the probability increasing the longer the copier went without breaking down. For simulating the interval between successive breakdowns: f(x) = x/18, 0 ≤ x ≤ 6 weeks where x= weeks between break-downs f(x) = x²/36, 0 ≤ x ≤ 6 weeks where x= weeks between break-downs f(x) = random number1 (R1) = x²/36 x = 6*sqrt(R1) 3. For simulating the lost revenue every day that the copier is out of service, select a random number (R3) between 2000 and 8000, since it is estimated that they would see between 2000 and 8000 copies a day. They will charge $0.10 per copy. Therefore, the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service is equal to R3*.1*repair time. The amound of revunue lost is approxiamtely $12,934.80. Please see the attached excel sheet. In order to estimate the revenue lost for the one year of operations the simulation has been performed. The estimates indicated that the copies sales were between 2000 to 8000...

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...Running head: Jet Copies Case Study 1 JET COPIES CASE STUDY James C. Kessler Strayer University Introduction to Management Science Math 540 Dr. Yaw Kyei January 3, 2013 Jet Copies Case Study 2 Days-to-Repair I typed the name jet copies into the A1 slot. Then I made the letters bold and used the cells section to increase the row height and the column width. I also increased the font size. I then typed in the probability of weekly demand section. Increasing the font size and making it bold. I set up three columns, P(x), cumulative, and repair time. This was taken from the table that was given. Because we need 52 weeks of information I set numbers for 60 weeks, starting with column E6. I then went to G6 and typed in =RAND() to start a random number sequence and hit enter. I then clicked on G6 and right clicked and held down to set up 60 random numbers. I then went to the clipboard section and clicked copy. Then we clicked on F6, then right clicked, then clicked on past special, then clicked on values, then clicked ok to set the values we would use. Then I left clicked on G6, then clicked on delete, then clicked entire column to remove. To develop the probability of breakdowns I had to assume values for P(y). We were given six operating times and given .33 as the highest probability, we then assumed the others with the total equaling 1.00. I then set up the cumulative column, and the operating time to...

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... to simulate lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer questions in the case study. 5. Last to determine how confident this report is in the answers and what are the limits of the study? Creating repair time probility using excel P(x) | Cumulative | Repair Time | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.65 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.90 | 4 | 1.00 | | | The first part of creating the probability of breakdowns was supplied by Jet Copies. Based on repair time this report used the following information in creating repair time probability. This represents the probability of repair and the corresponds in days. Based on the simulation, the average repair time in days is three. This is a list of $591 per day. Generate the Intervals between Successive Breakdowns To determine the intervals between break down I used a formulas of 6 times the square of the random number created in excel. Using this formula times the number of copies generated times 10 cents times the number of days between breakdown equals revenue. The average number of weeks between breakdowns is four weeks. Average revenue per day is $15,046 between successive breakdowns. This number is based off of this simulation. Lost Revenue for each day the Copier is not working To calculate this in excel, the simulation used the random number of copies between 2000 and 8000 times the...

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... revenue for each day, first I generated random number for each days based on the repair time using IF tool. RN for Day1 is IF(y>=1,RAND(),0) RN for Day2 is IF(y>=2,RAND(),0) RN for Day3 is IF(y>=3,RAND(),0) RN for Day4 is IF(y=4,RAND(),0) Then I used formula of z=6r+2 Copies lost day1 is 6*RN for day1+2 Copies lost day2 is IF(y>=2,6*RN for day2,0) Copies lost day3 is IF(y>=3,6*RN for day3,0) Copies lost day4 is IF(y=4,6*RN for day4+2,0) Revenue Lost Day1 | Revenue Lost Day2 | Revenue Lost Day3 | Revenue Lost Day4 | 572.19 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 716.79 | 527.03 | 0 | 0 | 578.18 | 226.13 | 0 | 0 | 406.24 | 200.81 | 0 | 0 | 262.29 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 786.81 | 421.22 | 0 | 0 | 733.80 | 729.89 | 556.836 | 0 | 277.33 | 313.74 | 0 | 0 | 356.64 | 684.30 | 558.6975 | 0 | 359.85 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 517.35 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 542.38 | 437.53 | 0 | 0 | 772.69 | 774.60 | 475.6403 | 671.2482 | After finding the copies lost during the repair time, I calculated lost revenue from day1 to day4. Lost revenue for each copy is $0.10 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. Total Revenue Lost | 572.19 | 1243.82 | 804.30 | 607.05 | 262.29 | 1208.04 | To find the annual lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year, I added lost revenues from day 1 to day 4 and then added all total lost revenues for 52 weeks. The annual lost......

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...JET Copies Case Problem There are two deliverables for this Case Problem, the Excel spreadsheet and the written description/explanation. 1. Days-to-repair: assume that the number of days needed to repair a copier is random, we can generate a random number denoted r2 between 0 and 1: 0 < random value < 0.2, then it takes 1 day 0.2 < random value < 0.65, then it takes 2 days 0.65 < random value < 0.90, then it takes 3 days 0.9 < random value < 1, then it takes 4 days 2. Intervals between successive breakdowns: The probability distribution of the random variable varies the times between 0 to 6 weeks, with the probability increasing as time goes on. This can be approximated by the function f(x)=x/18, for 0≤x≤6, where x= weeks between machine breakdowns Therefore the distribution function is: F(x) = x²/36 for 0≤x≤6 If we set this equal to another random number r that is between 0 and 1 then r = x²/36 => x=6√r 3. Lost revenue: the number of copies sold per day is a uniform probability distribution between 2000 to 8000 copies, r3 is a random number between 2000 and 8000. To get the amount of business lost on a particular day is r3*repair time, and the lost revenue is then equal to 0.1*r3*repair time, and charge $0.10 per copy. 4. These are the results after running the simulation in Excel: 1.Repair Distribution | | | | | | | P(x) | Cumulative | Repair Time | | | | | | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1.00...

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... coordinator choose and manage his/her activities. 1.3.4 Cost Allocation One of the most difficult problems for the energy manager is to try to reduce energy costs for a facility when the energy costs are accounted for as part of the general overhead. In that case, the individual managers and supervisors do not consider themselves responsible for controlling the energy costs. This is because they do not see any direct benefit from reducing costs that are part of the total company overhead. The best solution to this problem is for top management to allocate energy costs down to “cost centers” in the company or facility. Once energy costs are charged to production centers in the same way that materials and labor Committee Chairperson (often EM Coord. Personnel Rep. Dept. A Rep. Dept. B Rep. Mgmt. Rep. EM Tech. Hourly Emp Hourly Emp. Committee Rep. B A Figure 1-9 Energy Management Steering Committee. 20 Guide to Energy Management are charged, then the managers have a direct incentive to control those energy costs because this will improve the overall cost-effectiveness of the production center. For a building, this allocation of energy costs means that each of the tenants are given information on their energy consumption, and that they individually pay for that energy consumption. Even if a large building is “master metered” to reduce utility fixed charges, there should be a division of the utility cost down to the individual customers. 1.3.5......

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...Executive Summary Going public’s main advantage is to provide liquidity and access to raise capital in the future, however, it can lead to problem in control of management and is expensive. There are Free Cash Flow techniques and relative valuation techniques that we can use to value Jetblue’s share, however we are going to use the Free Cash Flow technique for this case as this is an IPO and the company had no history whatsoever that we can rely on except by using its similar competitor statistics and assumptions to value Jetblue. In conclusion, we have calculated that using Free Cash Flow technique, the share price is $57 and therefore the current range of $25 to $27 is underpriced and that they should increase it to $56 to $58. Case We can use several valuation techniques to value JetBlue’s shares which are the Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) method, Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) method and relative valuation techniques such as price earnings ratio (P/E), EBITDA multiple, price cash flow rations (P/CF), price book value ratios (P/Bv) and price sales ratio. An Initial Public Offering is when a company initially offers shares of stocks to the public, which is also known as going public. An IPO is the first time the owners of the company give up part of that ownership to stockholders. The advantages of Initial Public Offering are associated with liquidity, monitoring, credibility, access to markets and to be able to raise capital in the future. On the other hand, the...

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...Advanced Human Resources Case Study: Assessment Code: HMP1 Student Name: Mari K. Norris Student ID: 000248937 Date: 5/7/2012 Mentor Name: Brianna Koucos Between 1999 and 2004, I resided in Fairfield, CA and worked at an International Real Estate Company that gave me the opportunity to do a lot of traveling from the Bay Area, all over the US and Internationally. Prior to that, I had done quite a bit of traveling with my Mother, who believed that a well rounded child grew up with lots of different cultural experiences. As a young adult I loved to travel, but getting there was the part that I did not like. Airlines, with not much differentiation between each one, would crowd you into a plane like cattle. It never failed that the person in front of you would lay their seat back and you would have a complete stranger in your lap for a few hours or you would feel that you were so crowded in that you would have to try to make yourself as small as possible, just so that you did not get ran over by the refreshment cart or have the person next to you touch you for the whole flight. What was lacking, and still is in most cases is customer service and respect from the company for both their employees and their customers. Because of that, you can imagine my elation in 2000 while traveling down Highway 101 in the Bay Area, to see a billboard for a new airline that believed in customer service. They stated that their planes had more legroom, that their people were...

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...Case Study Using Information Technologies at Federal Express Federal Express, founded in 1971, handles an average of 3 million package-tracking requests every day (http://about.fedex.designcdt.com). To stay ahead in a highly competitive industry, Federal Express focuses on customer service by maintaining a comprehensive Web site, FedEx.com, to assist customers and reduce costs. For example, every request for information is handled at the Web site instead of going to the call center saves roughly $1.87. Federal Express has reported that customer calls have decreased by 83, 000 per day since 2000, which saves the company $57.56 million per year. In addition, each package-tracking costs Federal Express three cents; by using Web site instead of the call center to handle these requests, costs have been reduced from more than $1.36 billion per year to $21.6 million per year. Another technology for improving customer service is Ship Manager, an application installed on customers’ sites so that users can weigh packages, determine shipping charges, and print shipping labels. Customers can also link their invoicing, billing, accounting, and inventory systems to Ship Manager. However, Federal, Express still spends almost $326 million per year on its call center to reduce customers’ frustration when the Web site is down or when customers have difficulty in using it. Federal Express uses customer relationship management software called Clarify in its call centers to make customer...

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...JetBlue Case Study What does it take to make money in this industry? - High load factor per Available Seat Mile (ASM) - High fuel usage - Low fuel cost - Labor utilization - On-time arrivals - Maximize Revenue per ASM - Reduce Cost per ASM - Minimize DOT (complaints) - Minimize Bags lost - # customer JVD - Be in the top JD Power or other customer surveys/reviews - Maintain a excellent Airline safety record: # of flights/safe landings - Be profitable - Maintain a high Stock Price - Maximize Airplane Utilization (hrs) - Consistently providing high service standards at in a cost-effective manner. What is jetBlue’s strategy? - JetBlue is positioned to capture business from small and medium-sized businesses as well as leisure travelers - “We’re a new kind of low-fare airline, with deep pockets, new planes, leather seats with more legroom, great people and innovative thinking. With our friendly service and hassle-free technology, we’re going to bring humanity back to air travel.” - “The strategy was to use new airplanes, offer great personal service, create a state-of-the-art revenue management system, and a single class of service with fares averaging 65% less than the competition” - Differentiation by: o being adequately capitalized from the onset o owning new aircraft and not leasing o tailoring customized employment packages to employees vis-a-vis a standardization approach o “improve the passenger experience with technology, and would...

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...JetBlue Case Study Just 2 years after its inception in April 2002, JetBlue Airways remained profitable and was growing aggressively despite the terrorist attacks that occurred in September 2001. Together with co-lead manager Morgan Stanley, the JetBlue board was ready to set a price range, which they initially decided should be $22-$24, but facing excess demand, they increased the price range from $25 to $26. However, most of the group anticipated huge demand. In 1999, CEO David Neeleman announced his business plan and was convinced it would be successful on account of his strong commitment to innovation in people, policies, and technology. He attracted David Barger, former VP of Continental Airlines, as JetBlue’s president and COO and John Owen, former VP and treasurer of Southwest Airlines, as JetBlue’s CFO. He had strong support by many, especially the venture-capital community. He swiftly raised $130 million in funding from high profile firms such as Weston Presidio Capital, Chase Capital Partners, and Quantum Industrial Partners. The main problem facing JetBlue managers was the pricing policy. Morgan Stanley reported that the deal involved a severe excess of demand. Given this fact, some thought that the current pricing range was too low and that by raising the price, it would instill confidence into the market. In contrast, some thought raising the price would endanger the success of the deal. Management thought a successful offering involved not only raising short...

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...1. Number of days needed to repair the copier. Machine Probability of Cumulative Random number repair time repair time P(y) probability range, r2 1 0.2 0.2 0.00 - 0.20 2 0.45 0.65 0.21- 0.65 3 0.25 0.9 0.66 - 0.90 4 0.1 1 0.91 - 1 2. Intervals between successive breakdowns: The probability distribution of the random variable varies between the times of 0 to 6 weeks, with the probability increasing as time goes on. This can be approximated by the function F(x) = x/18, for 0”x”6, where x= weeks between machine breakdowns Therefore the distribution function is: F(x) = x²/36 for 0”x”6 Lost revenue: Since the number of copies sold per day is a uniform probability distribution between 2000 to 8000 copies, r3 is a random number between 2000 and 8000. To get the amount of business lost on a particular day is r1, r2 and r3 are random number picked, as well as repair time, and the lost revenue is then calculated by their charging price of $0.10 per copy. Simulation Random Times between Cumulative S. Random Repair S. Random Z= 6r + 2 Lost Revenue Breakdowns r1 bkdowns X (weeks) time r2 time (y) r3 Z Copies # $ 1 45 4.02 4.02 61 2 19; 65 9.04 9040 904 2 90 5.7 9.72 11 1 51 5.06 5060 506 3 84 5.5 15.22 19 1 17 3.02 3020 302 4 17 2.47 17.69 58 3 63; 85; 37 17.1 17100 1710 5 74 5.16 22.85 30 2 89; 76 6.56 6560 656 6 94 5.82 28.67 95 4 71; 34; 11; 27 16.58 16580 1658 7 7 1.58 30.25 38 2 10; 59 8.14 8140 814 8 15 2.32 32.57 24 2 87;......

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... Market Growth In this segment the organization is well-established, so it is easier to get attention and exploit new opportunities. Best strategies are joint ventures and strategic alliances. * Stars- High Market Share / High Market Growth In this case, the business is well-established. There are strong opportunities, and hard work can realize them. Best strategies are for investment, growth and expansion. * Question Marks- Low Market Share / High Market Growth There are uncertain opportunities. They are not generating much due to low market share but they are in high growth markets so they have potential. GE / McKinsey Matrix | Business Unit Strength | | High | Medium | Low | | | High | Invest/growth | Selectivegrowth | selectivity | | Medium | Selectivegrowth | selectivity | Harvest/divest | | Low | selectivity | Harvest/divest | Harvest/divest | The GE/McKinsey table The GE / McKinsey maps strengths of SBU on a grid of the industry and the SBU's position in the industry. The GE matrix has the axes as "Industry Attractiveness" and "Business Unit Strength" It then shows the location if it high, low or medium within those scales. Business level: we look at ways to make the company to succeed. A choice is made based on what enhances organizations competitive position. It focuses on identifying and generating strategies that help business have a solid and...

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...Forecasting Methods La Nesha H.Tyler MTH 540: Strayer University Scientific management is based on the applying systematic approaches to solving problems and making decisions. This guide to decision making provides a number of mathematical techniques derived from varied sources such as natural science, mathematics, engineering and statistics (Taylor, 2010). One such technique used in scientific management is the Forecasting method. A Forecast provides a reasonable prediction for a future event. Being able to predict the future can provide a valuable asset for any organization. Predictions will not always be one hundred percent accurate, but they can be a reasonable guide to making decisions based on systematic data. Taylor, 2010, discusses two widely used forecasting methods; time series analysis and regression. This project will present information on forecasting in the form of a storyboard. This project will provide an overview of forecast methods, how forecasts are measured, and identify different types of forecasting methods. According to author Bernard W. Taylor, 2010, “a variety of forecasting exist, and their applicability is dependent on the time frame of the forecast, the existence of patterns in the forecast, and the number of variables to which the forecast is related” (p.682). Time frame classifies forecast into three different categories, short –range, medium-range, and long-range forecast. Short-range forecast are forecast such as Weather forecast in...

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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem For the first component of the case, I was asked to find the number of days needed to repair the copier. To begin, I used the RAND() function in Excel to produce random values for column B9:B22. Once the RAND() function produced values, I copied and pasted just the values in column B9:B22 (to ensure the values would stay frozen and not continue to change). Once I had the random probabilities, I used the table given with the case (entered in cells A1:C6) to find the number of days need to repair. To find this information I used Excel function VLOOKUP, which matched the random probability to the cumulative probability column and whichever column the random fit into, Excel used the corresponding repair time (days) from column C. The VLOOKUP function was used and the information was entered into cells C9:C22, giving the information of number of days needed to repair the copier. The second component, we were asked to find the interval between successive breakdowns. To solve for the time between breakdowns, I used the maximum number of 6 weeks. In cell D9, I used formula 6*SQRT(B9) to find the time between breakdowns in weeks. I copied and pasted this formula into cells D10:D22. Since the problem only wanted to find the cost of breakdowns over a year, I also included a cumulative breakdown time. In this column, cell E9 equals cell D9, cell E10 equals D9+D10, cell E11 equals E10+D11, and so on for cells E12:E22. The third...

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