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Joan Holtz

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Case 6.1: Balance Of Payments-
Q1) What are the major concerns from the external sector?
Ans) Rising CAD is a major concern from the external sector. The current account has consistently been in deficit since 2004-05. The CAD has increased from -0.3% of GDP in 2004-05 to an estimated -4.2% of GDP in 2011-12. The CAD as a percentage of GDP in 2011-12 has reached an alarmingly high rate. We are in a situation of rising CAD in the midst of a slowing economy. A sharply deteriorating merchandise trade balance is largely responsible for the worsening CAD. The merchandise trade balance has increased from -13.7 in 2003-04 to -189.8 in 2011-12. . Invisibles have had a moderating influence on the current account. The balance on invisibles has been positive throughout the decade, and has increased from 9.8 in 2000-01 to 111.6 in 2011-12.
Q2) What is the sustainable level for CAD?
Ans) A sustainable current account balance is defined as the balance that would stabilise the net foreign asset (NFA) position of a country at some benchmark level. The “External Sustainability” (ES) approach is similar to approaches on public debt sustainability and relies on an inter-temporal budget constraint for the economy, which requires that the present value of trade surpluses is sufficient to pay for the country’s outstanding external liabilities. One simple way that the constraint can be satisfied is by ensuring that the size of net foreign assets is stabilised relative to the size of the economy, thus preventing assets or liabilities from growing without bound. Q3) What are your suggestions for short term?
Ans) In the short term, we must encourage capital flows to cover the current account deficit. Boosting investor confidence remains the key to attracting capital flows. Fiscal consolidation, reducing inflation, and further “careful” liberalisation of capital inflows could all contribute towards creating an environment conducive to domestic and foreign investors. The recent decisions to allow 51% FDI in multi-brand retail, 49% FDI in aviation by foreign airlines and the increase in the limit on foreign investment in government securities to $20 billion are welcome steps in this regard.It is important that foreign investors perceive the economy’s fundamentals to be strong and continue to be willing to demand Indian fi nancial assets. We need to be proactive in attracting capital flows. That is indeed the short-term solution because curtailing current account deficit in the short run is going to be tough.
Q4) What are your suggestions for medium term?
Ans) In the medium term, we can regard to pushing our exports, the framework should comprise various elements. Further diversification of exports along the product space and across markets can help boost exports. We need to move beyond the role of the exchange rate in thinking about strategies to increase competitiveness of our exporters. In this regard, measures to improve the domestic infrastructure in ports and airports and to reduce barriers to domestic movement of goods are essential. On the import side, reducing our dependence on oil imports remains a perennial challenge. Oil imports constitute about 30% of overall imports. Raising fuel prices can potentially decrease consumption, increase fuel efficiency and reduce our dependence on imports. Increasing incentives for oil and gas exploration could also serve to reduce our dependence on imports of oil. Controlling inflation will have an impact on gold imports. Increasing domestic production as in the case of coal will again help to contain imports. We must diversify the product-base as well as the markets.
Q5)What macroeconomic and external sector policies would you suggest?
Ans) Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange rate depreciation, assuming plausible export exchange rate elasticity can boost exports and reduce the CAD. But we need more work to pin down the precise elasticity. The strength of the effect will depend among other things on the pass-through from exchange rates to prices charged by exporters
Fiscal policy :Fiscal consolidation can serve to increase domestic savings, and reduce CAD.
Controlling inflation : Through fiscal and monetary policies, they can help translate the nominal depreciation of the rupee into a real one, and can potentially boost exports and also reduce imports of gold.
Addressing supply bottlenecks.

Link: http://eac.gov.in/reports/art_india.pdf

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