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Lufthansa Case Study

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Jan. 19, 2011
Lufthansa Case Analysis
Lufthansa’s chairman, Herr Heinz Ruhnau, purchased twenty 737 jets from Boeing (U.S.) in January 1985. The agreed price of the jets was $500,000,000 payable in one year. The U.S. dollars has been rising steadily and rapidly since 1980, and was about DM3.2/$ in January 1985 (Chart 1). Chart 1- DM/$ Exchange Rate 1980-1985
Herr Ruhnau believed U.S. dollar will depreciate very soon based on its appreciation in last 5 years. That is, exchange rate between DM and USD will favor Lufthansa when the company pays $500,000,000 to Boeing. However, it would be too risky to leave the whole amount uncovered. In order to hedge some risk, Herr Ruhnau used forward contract to cover 50% of the payment, and left the other 50% uncovered.
There are five alternative hedging ways to choose: 1. Remain uncovered
It is the maximum risk approach.
If e= DM2.2/$ by January 1986, payment to Boeing would be DM= 2.2 * 500 million= DM 1.1 billion
If e= DM 4/$ by January 1986, payment to Boeing would be DM= 4* 500 million= DM 2 billion 2. Full forward cover
This approach would lock in an exchange rate of DM 3.2/$. Payment to Boeing would be DM= 3.2 * 500 million= DM 1.6 billion 3. Partial coverage
Cover part of the payment with forward contract. Like Herr Ruhnau did, 50% covered by forward contract, DM= 3.2 * 250 million= 0.8 billion. If e= DM 2.2/$ in January 1986, total cost would be 0.8 billion + 2.2 * 250 million= DM 1.35 billion 4. Foreign currency options
A put option on the DM at DM3.2/$ would lock in DM 1.6 billion and a cost of option premium= 6% * 1.6 billion= 96 million
Total cost of a put option on DM is DM 1.696 billion 5. Obtain the U.S. dollar now and hold until payment is due
Obtain the $500 million now and hold the funds in an interest bearing account until payment is due. This would require Lufthansa to hold

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