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Lufthansa

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Caso 3.5 Lufthansa

El caso Lufthansa se trata sobre evaluar una acción financiera que tomo en su entonces presidente Herr Ruhnau en el Enero del 1985. La acción era comprar una flota de 20 aviones tipo jet a Boeing por un monto de $500,000,000 pagaderos contra entrega en un lapso de un año. El dólar en su momento se encontraba en el mejor precio de la historia y se mantenía incrementando de esta manera el cambio en su momento (enero 1985) era de DM 3.2/$.
Las opciones que tenía en su momento el Sr. Ruhnau, eran: 1. Permanecer al descubierto 2. Cubrir la exposición completa con contratos a plazos. 3. Cubrir una parte de la exposición y dejar el resto sin cubrir. 4. Obtener dólares en su momento y mantenerlos hasta que se deba efectuar el pago.

El señor Ruhnao utilizo la opción 3, protegiendo el 50% de la inversión a DM3.2/$ y dejando el resto al incognito si sube o baja el cambio de DM/$.

Para mala fortuna de Lufthansa y el señor Ruhnau sucedió lo que él pensaba que iba a suceder el dólar tenía que devaluarse y para enero del 1986 cuando tocaba hacer los pagos el cambio era de DM2.3/$ de esta manera los costos de las opciones eran los siguientes:

Alternativas Tipo Relevante Costo total en DM 1. Descubierto DM 2.3/$ 1,150,000,000 2. Cobertura 100% DM 3.2/$ 1,600,000,000 3. Cobertura 50/50 ½ DM 2.3/$ + ½ DM 3.2/4 1,375,000,000 4. Compra de dólares cierre DM 3.2/$ 1,246,000,000

Viendo que en se nota que la acción del señor Ruhnau había ocasionado pérdidas a Lufthansa por 225,000,000 DM mas los 129,000,000 por la cobertura del 50%, los directivos llamaron a Ruhnau para cuestionarlo sobre especular imprudentemente con el dinero de la empresa.

Preguntas del caso:
Se acuso a Herr Ruhnau de cometer los siguientes cuatro errores: 1. Comprar los aviones Boeing en el momento inoportuno. El dólar americano estaba en un máximo histórico cuando se efectuó la compra en enero de 1985.
Respuesta: Creo en lo particular que si eran necesarios los aviones debido al crecimiento que estaba teniendo Lufthansa aparte ningún otro directivo se negó a la compra de los aviones. Recurrente al dólar es cierto estaba en su máximo histórico pero ese máximo histórico incremento aun mas como data el caso un mes después del convenio de compra lo que significa que si se hubiera pagado todo en febrero 1985 hubiera sido más catastrófico la perdida ocurrida. De esta manera nadie podía predecir también si el dólar iba seguir incrementando o bajar en un futuro. Debido a esto creo que está bien realizada la compra.

2. Elegir cubrir la mitad de la exposición si esperaba que el dólar cayese. Si hubiera seguido sus instintos o sus expectativas, habría dejado la cantidad completa sin cobertura.
Respuesta: Debido que el solo tenía una corazonada de lo que podía suceder con el dólar americano a futuro el no podía arriesgarse a dejar la deuda sin cobertura. Existe un dicho muy claro para este caso y es que nunca tenemos que poner todos los huevos en la misma canasta. Así que en lo particular yo igual forma hubiera tomado la misma decisión del 50/50 porque tenía que asegurar una parte y dejar la otra para especulación.

3. Elegir contratos a plazo como herramientas de cobertura en lugar de las opciones. La compra de las opciones de ventas habría permitido a Herr Ruhnau protegerse de los movimientos adversos en el tipo de cambio a la vez que conservaba la flexibilidad de cambiar al contado los marcos alemanes por dólares americanos si el mercado se movía en su favor.
Respuesta: Esta opción es bien difícil de concebir debido que el precio que pagaban los franco alemanes era el 6% del monto a contraer. Creo que el costo era demasiado alto de haberse no devaluado el dólar americano. Recordemos que Ruhnau solo tenía hipótesis sobre lo que sucedería con la tasa de cambio entre DM/$ eran situaciones que no estaban a sus manos. Así que él no quiso arriesgarse tanto a pesar que si sucedía que el dólar bajaba drásticamente el solo deja terminar el periodo y comprar los dólares normales al precio pero eso significaba perder los 96,000,000 en su momento que se habían pagado de prima.

4. Comprar aviones Boeing, Alemania, así como los otros países importantes de la Comunidad Económica Europea tiene un interés conferido en el riesgo compartido con Airbus. El principal rival de Airbus era Boeing en la fabricación de grandes aviones civiles para largas distancias.
Respuesta: Haber comprado tanto Airbus como Boeing tenía la misma relevancia debida que se iba a negociar con otro tipo de divisa no iba ser DM a DM e igual forma siendo este el caso hubieran salido perdiendo. Más que todo se tenía que mirar las necesidades como aerolíneas y mirar cual empresa satisfacía sus necesidades.

Dadas estas críticas, ¿debe despedir el consejo de Lufthansa a Herr Heinz Ruhnau como presidente? ¿Cómo justificaría Ruhmau sus acciones y en consecuencia, como justificaría no perder su trabajo?

Respuesta: En lo particular como miembro del consejo de Lufthansa no despediría a Herr debido que el hiso la mejor decisión financiera en su momento debido que no podía especular mucho sobre la tasa de cambio de DM/$ ya que eso no dependía de el sino de las transacciones internacionales de ambos países. El protegió el dinero en un 50% y arriesgo el otro 50% siguiendo su instinto de que el Dólar americano tenía que devaluarse pero lo que él no sabía era cuando debido que tenía cinco años de venir en contante valúo y era lo único que le indicaba a el que tenía que parar. El mostrando que hubiera pasado en un aspecto pesimista siguiendo la devaluación que había tenido el DM/$ entre los años 84-85 que en cualquier caso de estudio seria la tasa que los financieros utilizarían la mas reciente para proyectar el comportamiento futuro del dinero asi que ellos hubieran utilizado la cobertura a plazo en un 100%.

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