...Volatility in Emerging Equity Market (Kse): The Relative Effects of Country and Global Factors Mohammad Faisal Rizwan* and Safi Ullah Khan** This paper focuses on the role of macroeconomic variables and global factors on the volatility of the stock returns in an emerging market like Pakistan. The paper uses two multivariate models, multivariate EGARCH and Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) models to investigate the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, industrial production, money supply, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index and 6-months LIBOR on stock prices in Pakistan’s equity market. The estimate shows that domestic macroeconomic variables have varying degrees of importance in explaining the relationship between stock returns and volatility in Karachi Stock Exchange. The empirical results also show that the two global factors, MSCI World Index and 6-months LIBOR, variables used in this paper explain the stock returns in KSE. An important conclusion drawn from the results is that macroeconomic variables exhibit asymmetric effects on returns volatility. Overall, the results show that Pakistan’s stock market is partially integrated as shown by the significant role of both country and global factors. Field of Research: Finance 1. Introduction Studies on the link between macroeconomic variables and stock returns are broadly divided into two groups based on the level of market integration. The first strand promotes the view that markets are generally integrated and...
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...has been experiencing disappointing performance in terms of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and the general development of her economy. As a result, there’s no improvement in the level of poverty. In the 90s, came the era of globalization which connotes external opening and increased role of markets domestically (i.e. the market economy). To the developing world, market economy is a modern way of turning the economy around. The essence of globalization is to move the economy towards external liberation, focusing on market oriented economic system, export-led strategy and stabilization of the economy. In Nigeria, it was the era of structural adjustment programme in collaboration with the IMF and World Bank. The governments in the developing world, believes that it is more desirable to globalize which simply means to open up the economy and penetrate international markets. In time past, the world economy has undergone a fundamental shift towards an integrated and coordinated global division of labour in production and trade. In the 1950s and 1960s, productions were within national boundaries. The increase of oil prices in the late 1970s and the contractionary monetary policies of the United States during 1979 and 1982 period led to the increased interest rates and consequently indebted developing countries found they unable to service their debts. Continual refinancing was the only way to avoid default. By the end of the mid 1980s, there were both internal and external balances...
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...Understanding Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia By now, the tectonic damage left by the global financial crisis of 2007-09 has been well documented. World per capita output, which typically expands by about 2.2 percent annually, contracted by 1.8 percent in 2009, the largest contraction the global economy experienced since World War II. During the crisis, markets around the world experienced colossal disruptions in asset and credit markets, massive erosions of wealth, and unprecedented numbers of bankruptcies. Five years after the crisis began, its lingering effects are still all too visible in advanced countries and emerging markets alike: the global recession left in its wake a worldwide increase of 30 million in the number of people unemployed. These are painful reminders of why there is a need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book serves this purpose by bringing together a number of innovative studies on the causes and consequences of financial crises and policy responses to them. Although there is a rich literature on financial crises, there has been no publication since the recent financial crisis providing in one place a broad overview of this research and distilling its policy lessons. The book fills this critical gap. It covers a wide range of crises, including banking, balance-of-payments, and sovereign debt crises. It reviews the typical patterns prior to...
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... References 13 -14 1. Introduction Macroeconomics can be best understood in contrast to microeconomics which considers the decisions made at the level of a specific subgroups or individuals. Macroeconomics considers the behavior of an economy at the aggregate level or how all of these decisions sum together. It looks at the bigger picture and involves the study of the economy as a whole. More specifically, it is a study of national economies and the determination of national income. The study of macroeconomics are focusing on several factors that are: * Real output – determine the reason of the economic growth and their differences between various countries. * Productivity – the average labour productivity. * Economic growth – causes of decline and growth. * Unemployment – types, reason and how to overcome it. * Inflation – Causes, reason of different rate either from time to time and from one country to another. In order to greasing the engine of the economy, government used several policies such as: * Financial or monetary policies to influences supply of money in their economy. * Fiscal policy such as taxes and government expenditure. * Income policy to control prices and wages. * Supply-side policy which focuses on the aggregate supply and how to increase the production. Macroeconomic are one of the mechanism to forecast economic conditions to help consumers, firms and governments...
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...1.4 4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3 5 5.1 Participation of Global Trade Association Foreign Direct Investment Currency Valuation Structural Changes Free Trade Policy Close Economic Partnership Arrangement with Mainland China Availability of Venture Capital 4.2 Hong Kong MARKET CHALLENGES AND TRENDS China’s Challenges 5.1.1 Inflation 5.1.2 Government Interference 5.1.3 Social Unrest 5.1.4 Unbalanced Regional Development 5.1.5 Low Domestic Consumption 5.1.6 Poor Technology & Substandard Products 5.2 Hong Kong’s Challenges 5.2.1 Global Markets 5.2.2 Emerging Markets in Asia 5.2.3 Increasing Competition 5.2.4 Change of Export Business 6 HONG KONG SUSTINAED COMPETITION POSITION 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 Better Trading Cooperation Doing-Business Climate Better Transportation Means Advanced Info-Communication Network Skillful and Technical Manpower 7 CONCLUSION REFERENCES & APPENDIX Macroeconomics Individual Paper 2 DSME 5011 - Economics Clara Tak-Wai LAW EXECUTIVE SUMMARY China becomes the 1st exporter in the world after 25% rise in 2009 and export is the major contribution of its economic development in the past decades. Accelerated growth of the world export share was to 40% from 8% in 5-years time. The combined factors driving China’s success are the participation of the World Trade Organization (hereafter called “WTO”) in 2001 to open up the bilateral trading with the U.S. and other countries, restricted currency policy and effect of globalization process. As considered...
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...Market Liberalization… with Chinese Characteristics: Can the Chinese Yuan become a Global Reserve Currency? Abstract China’s economy is growing ever larger, but is that enough to get the Chinese Renminbi (more commonly known as Yuan) to be accepted as a global market currency? This paper will look into the liberalization, but with Chinese characteristics, of five determining factors in becoming a country who’s currency is a global reserve currency. These factors are as follows: economic size, macroeconomic policies, flexible exchange rates, financial market development, and finally having an open capital account, and will ultimately prove the China is not quite the rising economic power some believe it to be (citation, 2012). Market Liberalization… with Chinese Characteristics In China, it is currently the year of the dragon, a symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power. With this symbol of fortune and power many Chinese are hoping for a year of economic prosperity, especially for the growth of the Renminbi, or more commonly known as the Yuan. In recent years, China has maintained that it’s “special” economy is pursuing a “market economy, but with Chinese characteristics”. Some of these characteristics include encouraging more of an international use of the currency, while being famous for their inflexibility with exchange rates, and not fully opening up the economy to the free flow of capital. However, the Yuan’s acceptance as a reserve currency...
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...Chapter 12 - Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis CHAPTER TWELVE MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS CHAPTER OVERVIEW This is the one of three chapters that covers fundamental security valuation. This chapter introduces a topdown approach to fundamental security analysis. It covers the first two components: macroeconomic and industry analysis. The textbook begins with a global analysis, particularly with respect to how the performance of domestic firms is influenced by international economic performance. The chapter’s main focus however is on aspects of the U. S. economy that affect security returns, including fiscal and monetary policy. In addition, a brief presentation of the determinants of interest rates is covered. The chapter concludes with a discussion of industry analysis that includes classifications of industries, information sources, the industrial life cycle and a Porter framework that can be used to analyze industry competition. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Upon reading this chapter, you should have a basic understanding of some of the macroeconomic factors that affect security prices. That is, how fiscal and monetary policy affect interest rates and security prices. And some industry groups are more affected by macroeconomic factors than others and the characteristics of an industry that affect its competitiveness. CHAPTER OUTLINE The top-down approach to fundamental analysis begins with analyzing the economy. Expected economic performance will influence...
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...Economics for the Global Manager BUS610 AIU Abstract This paper’s objective is to discuss the differences between microeconomics and macroeconomics and examples of each. It will discuss a personal microeconomic example with the factors that contributed to the decision. It will also discuss an example of a macroeconomic phenomenon and the results of the decision. Economics for the Global Manager Microeconomics is an analysis of how individuals and firms will make themselves as successful as possible in a world of shortages and the penalty of those individual decisions for markets and the entire economy. It will study how individuals and firms make decisions and how the individual decisions will affect markets (Perloff, 2012). Macroeconomic is an analysis of the performance of the whole economic system. It can forecast the national income by studying the major economic factors that have predictable patterns or trends and the influence they have on one another. The factors used are prices, balance of payment positions, gross national product, and employment / unemployment (Macroeconomics, 2013). The difference between microeconomics and macroeconomics is clear. Microeconomics is the study of the individuals / firms markets. It looks at the allocations of resources and the prices of goods. Macroeconomics is a study of the whole economic system. It looks at gross national product and how it affects unemployment. A microeconomic phenomenon example is taking a looks...
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...Topic: China’s financial liberalization Title: China’s financial liberalization and the policy transformation towards openness Author: Xuepan Cheng 4136801 Abstract This paper focused on the research of China’s financial liberalization reform in order to discuss the economic and financial effects casted by financial liberation. Also the article pointed out the current problems of China’s financial system and provided suggestions for implementation. The main argument of policy suggestions for China is to further lower down the financial limits, so that China will be able to build a better foundation for financial liberalization. Also the effective and constant supervision and modification of the financial regulation system is also necessary for maintaining a healthy macroeconomic environment and continuing capital flows. While the economic globalization, and financial liberalization has become a major tendency that attracts a lot of people’s attention in world economic development since the 1980s, the financial liberation and reform has become a necessity for China to develop it’s financial market and economy wellbeing. 1. Introduction China, as one of the fastest expanding economy in the world, is largely owing to the economic globalization, and financial liberalization since the 1980s. Economic globalization refers to the fact that economic resources (goods, capital, labor, technology, information and other transactions) flow from one country to another. This tendency makes...
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...O C C A S I O N A L PA P E R S E R I E S N O 1 2 3 / F E B R UA RY 2 011 THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS by Ettore Dorrucci and Julie McKay OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES NO 123 / FEBRUARY 2011 THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS by Ettore Dorrucci and Julie McKay1 NOTE: This Occasional Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. In 2011 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €100 banknote. This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1646277 1 European Central Bank, Ettore.Dorrucci@ecb.europa.eu, Julie.McKay@ecb.europa.eu. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The authors would like to thank, outside their institution, A. Afota, C. Borio, M. Committeri, B. Eichengreen, A. Erce, A. Gastaud, P. L'Hotelleire-Fallois Armas, P. Moreno, P. Sedlacek, Z. Szalai, I. Visco and J-P. Yanitch, and, within their institution, R. Beck, T. Bracke, A. Chudik, A. Mehl, E. Mileva, F. Moss, G. Pineau, F. Ramon-Ballester, L. Stracca, R. Straub, and C. Thimann for their very helpful comments and/or inputs. © European Central Bank, 2011 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany...
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...This First Quarter Review is being made in a macroeconomic environment that has changed significantly since our April policy announcement. At that time, there was some optimism about the sustainability of the global recovery, however modest the pace may be. This was reinforced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts published earlier this month, which suggested that global growth would be marginally higher than their April 2010 projection. While most of that would come from emerging market economies (EMEs), the advanced economies would hold steady. However, in the aftermath of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and other visible soft spots in Europe and the US, there is renewed uncertainty about the sustainability of the recovery. 2. In contrast, on the domestic front, the recovery has consolidated and is becoming increasingly broad-based. There are rising concerns about capacity constraints being reached over a wide range of sectors. While inflationary pressures have also risen, the performance of the monsoon so far has been significantly better than during last year. While rainfall is still below the long period average at the all-India level, it has been enough to induce a significant increase in sown area across a range of crops, the high prices of which have been a source of great worry. 3. The dominant concern that has shaped the monetary policy stance in this review is high inflation. Even as food price inflation and, more generally, consumer price inflation have...
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...to have in the same economy. These three conditions are: fixed exchange rate, free capital movement and an independent monetary policy. A nation can only chose any two of these factors; it depends on the choice of the nation. According to results of the analysis the governments which have tried to achieve all three factors have failed badly. Impossible trinity gives the choice to a nation, to choose two among three factors which are known as independent monetary policy, free capital flows, exchange rate stability. The impossible trinity:- The impossible trinity is a set of three desirable factors which a country wants to achieve but as a matter of fact only two factors are possible to achieve. Its economical diagram is as the following:- Theoretical derivation:- The official representation fundamental the theory is the uncovered Interest Rate Parity condition which condition that in nonattendance of a risk premium, arbitrage will make sure that the reduction or approval of a country's money, another will be equivalent to the nominal interest rate degree of difference between them. Since under a dowel, the swap rate cannot alter, short of depression or desertion of the dowel, this means that the two countries' supposed notice rates have to be steady. This in revolve implies that the peg state has no aptitude to set its supposed interest rate, and hence no self-governing financial policy. The only way then that the state...
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...deals with the idea of relevance to the contemporary business, in order to improve a complete understanding of the supply distribution matters opposite the business organisation and the environment that it functions in. It uses various economic theory and other quantitative methods to scrutinise a business organisation and the issues that influences the enterprise with the labour and its market. Question 1 Business Economics is a useful toolbox for understanding the business environment and making better decisions. Consider you are the managing director of a manufacturing company based in UK; describe the different aspects of the business that you should be looking at from an economics perspective in order to run the company efficiently. Consider both the microeconomics and macroeconomics perspectives. The entire business organisations around the globe have one similar goal and that is to increase the profit. By scrutinising the demand of the clients, supplying good quality and suitable supply, the profit can be maximised. Conversely there are various microeconomic and macroeconomic factors that affect this process. These factors significantly affect the sales and production level of a business organisation1. The following are few of the economic factors that affect the efficiency of a business organisation. All these factors are interconnected to each other. * Demand and supply: Two of the main factors that affect the efficiency of an organisation are demand and...
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...India and the Global Financial Crisis What Have We Learnt? 1 - Duvvuri Subbarao _________________________________________________________ Thank you for inviting me to deliver the 2011 K R Narayanan Oration. It is an honour to which I attach a lot of value. President Narayanan 2. Late President Narayanan was a distinguished diplomat, a reputed parliamentarian, a capable minister and above all an erudite scholar. Born at the very bottom of India’s social pyramid, he rose on to occupy the highest office in the country with no assets other than hard work, integrity and humility. ‘A working President’, as he described himself, he never allowed dogma to overwhelm his beliefs and convictions. 3. President Narayanan was in office from 1997 to 2002, a time when globalization, as we are experiencing it in the current times, was taking root. At the banquet he hosted for the visiting US President Bill Clinton in New Delhi in March 2000, President Narayanan remarked: “Mr. President, we do recognise and welcome the fact that the world has been moving inevitably towards a one-world... But, for us, globalization does not mean the end of history and geography, and of the lively and exciting diversities of the world.” This was a thoughtful remark. As much as globalization may be inevitable, history and geography need not be destiny. If we learn the lessons of experience, we will not repeat the same mistakes. This indeed is the topic for my 1 K.R. Narayanan Oration by Dr. Duvvuri...
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...June 10, 2014 KENNETH S. ROGOFF CURRICULUM VITAE Economics Department, Littauer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138-3001, 617495-4022, FAX: 617-495-7330, email: krogoff@harvard.edu Webpage: http://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff Birth date: March 22, 1953 Married to Natasha Lance Rogoff, two children (Gabriel and Juliana) EDUCATION Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ph.D., February 1980 Doctoral Dissertation: Essays on Expectations and Exchange Rate Volatility. Yale University, B.A./M.A. summa cum laude, Honors in Economics, May 1975. PROFESSIONAL POSITIONS Professor of Economics, Harvard University, September 1999 – present; Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, January 2004 – present. Chief Economist and Director of Research, International Monetary Fund, 2001–2003. Director, Harvard Center for International Development, 2003–2004. Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Princeton University, 1992–94; Charles and Marie Robertson Professor of International Affairs, 1995–1999. Professor of Economics, University of California at Berkeley, 1989–1991. Associate Professor of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1985–1988. Economist, International Finance Division, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1980–1983; Section Chief, Trade and Financial Studies Section, 1984. Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Oct. 1982 – Sept. 1983. VISITING POSITIONS BP-LSE Visiting Centennial Professor, London School...
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