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Macroecons

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Subject Code: ECON10003 | Subject Name: Introductory Macroeconomics | Student ID Number: 642782 | Student Name: Jesslyn Ethelind Ng | Assignment Name or Number: 1 |

Question 1

a). For the March 2013 to March 2014 period, Australia experienced a decrease on its GDP growth from 3.1% to 2.7%, whereas United States, experience a significant GDP growth from 1.6% to 3.1%. For the December 2013 to March 2014 period, Australia experienced an increase of GDP growth from 2.3% to 2.7%, while United States also experience an increase from 2.3% to 3.1%.

b). Australia Category | Seasonally Adjusted | Trend | | Value ($m) | Percentage (%) | Value ($m) | Percentage (%) | Final Consumption expenditures | | General Government | 68449 | 0.4 | 68422 | 0.3 | Households | 209845 | 0.6 | 209729 | 0.5 | Total Gross Fixed Capital Formation | | Private | 86023 | -2 | 87453 | 1 | Public | 18292 | -0.6 | 17460 | -5 | Export | 90734 | 2 | 92121 | 4.8 | Import | 76845 | -1.6 | 77003 | -1.4 |

Export has the highest growth of rate in Australia both in seasonally adjusted and trend with 2% and 4.8%. And Private gross fixed capital formation has the lowest rate of growth with -2% in according to seasonally adjusted, whereas according to trend public gross fixed capital formation has the lowest rate of growth with -5%.

United States Category | Percentage of Changes (%) | Personal Consumption expenditure | 1.2 | Gross Private Domestic Investment | | Net exports of Goods and Services | Import | 2.2 | Export | 9.2 | Government Consumption expenditures and gross investment | -0.1 | Change in Private inventories | 2.82 | Export has the highest rate of growth in United States while Government consumption expenditures and gross investment has the lowest rate of growth with -0.1%.

c). Mining is the largest industry sector in the March quarter 2014, while Financial and insurance services is the second largest industry sector.
And mining also the industry, which experiences the highest rate of growth from March 2013 to March 2014.

Question 2

The three leading indicators:
Consumer Sentiment (confidence index)
Retail Sales yoy (annual)
Business Confidence index

In the first quarter (January 2014 to April 2014), both U.S and Australia Consumer Confidence index decreases. While in the second quarter (April 2014 to July 2014), U.S Consumer Confidence index increases, whereas Australia decreases.
From January 2013 to January 2014, U.S Consumer Confidence index increases from 74 to 82, this means that consumer’s consumption increases. While the Australia Consumer Confidence index decreases from 106 to 104, this means that consumer’s consumption decreases.

In the first quarter (January 2014 to April 2014), both U.S and Australia Consumer Confidence index increases. While in the second quarter (April 2014 to July 2014), U.S Consumer Confidence index moved up and down throughout the quarter and end on the same place it started, whereas Australia decreases.
From April 2013 to April 2014, both U.S and Australia retail sales increases, these mean that the consumer’s consumption throughout the one year increases.
With U.S retail sales increases from 3 to 4, and Australia retail sales increases from 3 to 5.

In the first quarter (January 2014 to April 2014), U.S Business Confidence index decreases, after fluctuate up in the middle of the quarter, while Australia begin the quarter by steadily dropping, then started to increase not long after the beginning of Quarter 1. While in the second quarter (April 2014 to July 2014), both U.S and Australia Business Confidence index increases.
For January 2013 to January 2014 period, both U.S Business Confidence index and Australia’s increases compare to the start of the year. This means that there are more business investments going on in this period.
With U.S Business Confidence index increases from 4 to 6, and Australia Business Confidence also increases from 4 to 6.

In Conclusion, for United States, the Consumer Confidence index and retail sales increase at higher percentage that the increases in Business Confidence index. This means that U.S people allocate their income to consumption rather than investment. For Australia, the consumer confidence index and retail sales also increase at slightly higher percentage than the increase in business confidence index; this means that Australians allocate their income to consumption more than to investment.
Comparing the graph of both U.S and Australia, in three different leading indicators, Consumer Confidence index, retail sales and Business Confidence index, both U.S and Australia may experience growth in real GDP for the rest of the year. They have similar economic growth, because both U.S and Australia people allocate their income more on consumption than on investment. In the case of Consumer Confidence index, Australia has a higher index compare to U.S. For Retail sales, Australia also has slightly higher index compare to U.S. And for Business Confidence index, U.S has a much higher index compare to Australia. These means that Australia consumer consumption grow more that their investment. While for U.S, their investments grow more than their consumer consumption.

REFERENCE:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence (2014, www.tradingeconomics.com, Thomson Reuters, University of Michigan, Westpac Banking Corporation, Melbourne Institute)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales-annual
(2014, www.tradingeconomics.com, U.S Census Bureau, Australian Bureau of Statistics)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/business-confidence
(2014, www.tradingeconomics.com, National Australia Bank, Institute of Supply Management)

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/1D45684501575F51CA257CEC001D0A30/$File/52060_Mar%202014.pdf
(4 June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics)

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm (July 30, 2014, U.S Department of Commerce)

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