...Advances: Decision Analysis Structure 7 Page 1 of 45 Ch 08 060502 V06 Developing Objectives and Attributes Ralph L. Keeney Abstract The fundamental objectives of any decision problem should define why the decision maker is interested in that decision. However, listing a complete set of the fundamental objectives for a decision is not a simple task. It requires creativity, time, some hard thinking, and the recognition that it is important. This chapter offers many suggestions to help do the task well and provides criteria to appraise the quality of the resulting set of fundamental objectives. For an analysis of the alternatives in terms of these objectives, an attribute to measure the achievement of each objective is required. Good attributes are essential for an insightful analysis. This chapter also includes many suggestions to help identify or construct useful attributes as well as criteria to appraise the quality of the resulting attributes. Collectively, the fundamental objectives and corresponding attributes provide the basis for any objective function and for any discussion of the pros and cons of the alternatives. CONTENTS Objectives and Attributes Identifying Objectives Listing Values Specifying Objectives from Values Structuring Objectives Desirable Properties of Fundamental Objectives Advances: Decision Analysis Structure Basic Concepts about Attributes Desirable Properties of Attributes Unambiguous Comprehensive Direct Operational Understandable ...
Words: 12160 - Pages: 49
...Supply Chain Network Analysis and Design: Location Analysis PROC 5820 7 May 2014 Summary The principal thesis of this paper is to discuss location analysis and its role in supply chain network analysis and design. The emphasis of site location is of strategic importance to all organizations seeking to maximize profits and minimize costs. The logistics/supply chain network design has six major planning steps in the process of designing a comprehensive logistics/supply chain network: The first step is to define the logistics/supply chain design process. The second step is to perform a logistics/supply chain audit. The third step is to examine the logistics/supply chain network alternatives. The fourth step is to conduct a facility location analysis, followed by the fifth step, which is to make decisions regarding network and facility location. The sixth and final step is to develop an implementation plan. Location analysis is also discussed in terms of the advantages and disadvantages of globalization and major location site factors. The discussion then describes the methods for evaluating major location site factors and making location decisions based on the evaluation. The paper concludes with discussing different modeling approaches and the need for comprehensive planning. (Reid and Sanders, 2010) (Coyle, J., Langley, C., Novak, R., Gibson, B. 2013) Introduction As stated by Jeff Karrenbauer...
Words: 3038 - Pages: 13
...The Application of Decision Trees by Companies and its Advantages and Disadvantages Management science uses different ways of approach to solve management problems. Management science which is also referred to as decision analysis is part of a core of business. Decision analysis is a method used in the business firm to help managers resolve uncertainties in making investment decisions. It helps them make choices, take risks, and gain information that is needed. The decision tree can be simple or complex. It shows a combination of choice with different possible events. The usage of decision trees has helped various companies to determine the best alternative, which yields the greatest monetary gain. An example of a decision tree applied in real life is by the Oglethorpe Power Corporation (OPC). It was used in deciding whether to invest in a major transmission system. Firstly, three groups were established. The first group consists of a senior management team which helps review ideas, recommendations and make a decision based on the approach. Then, we have the analytical team which is responsible for conducting the analysis and analyse the ideas and recommendations given. The last group consists of the OPC experts who helps solve specific topics which have been brought up during the analysing process. The first step in decision analysis was identifying the problems that may arise accurately which were conducted by the analytic team. Major decisions, uncertainties, flaws...
Words: 2103 - Pages: 9
...Framework for Marketing Decision Making “What do we do well?” “What do buyers need?” “What are competitors doing?” “Where should we compete?” “How should we compete?” I. Situation Analysis A. Internal 1. The Organization’s Goals and Objectives 2. The Organization’s Strengths and Weaknesses B. External 1. Customer Analysis 2. Competitor Analysis 3. PEST Analysis C. Identify Key Problems & Opportunities 1. Perform SWOT Analysis 2. Set Priorities 3. Develop an Overall Assessment II. Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning (STP) A. Identify Relevant Markets and Segments B. Select Target Markets and Target Segments C. Develop Positioning Strategy III. Determine Marketing Mix Alternatives A. Product (Goods and/or Services) B. Price C. Place (Distribution) D. Promotion (Advertising and Promotion) E. Evaluation of Alternatives IV. Implementation, Adaptation, and Renewal A. Implement Decision B. Monitor & Control C. Adapt & Renew Figure 1 Framework for Marketing Overview The framework for marketing - the process for implementing the Value Cycle - is illustrated in Figure 1. The basic steps are outlined on the previous page and each is developed more fully in the pages that follow. It is best to begin with a brief overview. The first stage, the Situation Analysis, combines internal analysis of the organization with external analysis of its customers and the competitive...
Words: 3223 - Pages: 13
...benefits (Cernauskas, Grey, Hemphill & Segal, 2011). The Qualitative data has a nonnumeric value and the variables for this data set consist of gender, position and department (Cernauskas et al, 2011). The two categories together provide the statistical data for the AIU staff analysis. Use of Statistics and Probability in the Real World The probability theory has survived for over three hundred years and it has grown to be a major part of everyday life (Vidal, n. d.). We have all made decisions based on the simplest activity such as picking straws or rolling dice. However, decisions are also based on likelihood of an event or simply by a hunch (Cernauskas et al, 2011). There are substantial ways that statistics are being used today ranging from areas in genetics, economics, and medicine. Another important use for statistics is for education; the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) provides analysis and reports on the data collected in regards to the condition of education in the US as well as the conducting and reporting of educational activities worldwide (National Center for Statistics, n. d.). Congress relies on the reported statistics; according to NCES (n. d.), this analysis is used for the purpose of educational funding among states; state and local officials are also users of this information for...
Words: 1270 - Pages: 6
...no option to select his major before student graduate from high school. Because of this this reason, I did not consider the about my major until I received the matric from San Jose State University. I found a note in this envelop when I opened it. It said student must declare his major before sophomore, so I only had one year to make a decision. The note also emphasizes the importance of major decision for you future, so I would do some research and analysis to find the best area of interest for me. I selected Industrial Technology as my major, and I believe my major decision is under control in the matter. I was really interested in the field of engineering and automation control system, so I prefer to be an engineer. While I understand the decision was not made by your passion because sometime your decision may not the test answer. For that reason I tried to spend my summer time to work in a real factory. I found a non- pay internship in a testing laboratory. For a security reason, I could not do the real test, but I could write down the date on the lab manual. I attended more than ten test during the summer time. The test usually needed two days for setting up and data entry, and take couple day to run the whole process. I remember the longest testing time was a corrosive test. In this test, the machine used highly concentrated salt frog to sprat a life boat. The chief testing engineering measured the thickness of the paint and compute the life time of the boat. I treated...
Words: 625 - Pages: 3
...“A Study on Purchase Decision Making Of Life Insurance Products” [Submitted on: 22.12.2014] Submitted to: Prof. Anamika Prepared by: Jayajeet Das Group-2 Roll No.-14DM012 Sec-A PGDM (2014-16) Institute of Management and Information Science, Bhubaneswar Acknowledgements “First and foremost, I avail this opportunity to express my profound sense of sincere and deep gratitude to Prof. Anamika for her valuable and meticulous supervision during the preparation of this Project Report. Last but not the least I extend my support to all my group members and respondents whose kind cooperation & support helped me to bring out the study report in a successful manner. Abstract Insurance occupies an important place in the complex modern world since risk, which can be insured, has increased enormously in every walk of life. This has led to growth in the insurance business and evolution of various types of insurance covers. This research aims at determining consumers’ attitudes towards buying life insurance products and to understand their purchase and repurchase intention. This research was conducted in Bhubaneswar of Odisha taking a sample of 75 LIC and other private insurance customers. Respondents for this survey were selected using random sampling. The survey was done by all our group members. The analysed data has been presented in the form of table, bar graphs and pie-charts. This study also analyzed the repurchasing intention of policy holders. The survey...
Words: 2425 - Pages: 10
...“Roger Federer arrives at this year’s US Open in the midst of a new chapter in his storied career,” Stephen Tignor uses rhetorical strategies to convince Federer’s fans that he (Federer) had won the Wimbledon title because of the successful changes he had undergone since winning the last major trophy. Tignor asserts that the influence of Federer’s mother, his twin daughters, and the hiring of a new coach were the reasons he had won the Wimbledon title (Tignor 27). To achieve his goal of convincing the audience, Tignor utilizes a variety of rhetorical strategies: description, comparison and contrast, narration, process analysis, and augmentation. These rhetorical strategies combine to convince Federer’s fans that he was able to win the Wimbledon title because of the influence of the changes he had introduced in his life. While using description as a rhetorical strategy, an author uses figurative language and sense details to support a given assertion concerning a person or object of discussion. Tignor in the article argues that Federer’s twin daughters, his mother, and the new coach were the reason why he had won the Wimbledon title after failing in the previous attempts to win a major title in tennis (Tignor 27). Tignor asserts that in his previous wins and losses, the three persons had not attended his matches; the Wimbledon win was their first attendance. Tignor describes how the twins (Myla and Charlene) were tangling in front of Federer’s mother, Lynnette (Tignor 27)...
Words: 1205 - Pages: 5
...regulations and manned the vessel with a qualified crew. Additionally, Ocean Carriers ensured adequate supplies and stores onboard, supplied lubricating oils, scheduled the repairs, conducted overall maintenance of the vessel, and placed all insurances for the vessel. Need for Analysis In 2001, Ocean Carriers was in a predicament and it was essential that the company conduct detailed analysis before making major decisions. Ocean Carriers was in negotiations with a charterer for a three-year time charter starting in 2003, but the vessels in Ocean Carriers’ current fleet could not commit to a time charter beginning in 2003. The company’s ships were either already leased during that period or were too small to meet the customer’s needs. It is also noteworthy that there were no sufficiently large capsizes available in the second-hand market. Ocean Carriers had to decide how to handle this situation with the charterer and thorough analysis was certainly necessary. General Recommendation We have conducted our own analysis of Ocean Carriers and we have determined that the company should have terminated the negotiation with the charterer and avoid involvement in the project. Problem Confronting Ocean Carriers The major dilemma facing Ocean Carriers in 2001 was whether or not they should commission a brand new 180,000 deadweight ton ship for delivery in early...
Words: 670 - Pages: 3
...Analysis: Providing Good Care to Dying Patients: Paper 2 Jaime Holtgrewe Chamberlain College of Nursing NR 449 Evidence Based Practice February 2013 Clinical Question In my group, the focus of research is based on the following clinical question: What are the best practices for end of life care? Within the group, research is driven to focus on enhancing care for end of life patient, including collaboration with physicians and surrogate decision makers or a power of attorney (POA), as well as pain management policies. However, all aspects of care for end of life patients are taken into consideration when determining which facet is most important. The group’s research consists of quantitative and qualitative articles focusing on transitioning to hospice programs, new measures of care, acceptance of death and experience of caregivers for the dying patient. According to the Journal of Health Politics, Policy & Law (2008), three of every four Americans do not fear death as much as they fear being in pain at the time of death. End-of-life care can be a challenge requiring the full range of a family physician's skills. Significant pain is common but is often undertreated despite available medications and technology. Physicians must overcome their own fears about using narcotics and allay similar fears in patients, families and communities. Drugs such as corticosteroids, antidepressants and anticonvulsants can also help to alleviate pain. A considerable amount of research...
Words: 1438 - Pages: 6
...Running head: Improving Decision Making Skills Improving Decision Making Skills Effective Organizations: Theory and Practice Improving My Decision Making Skills This week’s assignment required students to complete a test to gauge decision making skills. I scored a 69 which suggests that I have an excellent approach to decision making. This score implies that I have the ability to start the process of decision making and have the ability to solicit a variety of solutions to resolve the problem. This score also says that I analyze the available options with great detail and attempt to make the best decision with the information presented to me. An area where I could improve was identified as following up with my decision and putting a plan into action after a decision has been made. I agree with the findings of this test due to me preferring to make informed decisions. I would rather have all possible information that could affect the outcome before coming to a conclusion. In general, decision making is a daily part of life. For example, most people decide what to wear each day, what to eat for breakfast and which route to take to work. These may appear to be simple decisions to make, simply because they only affect the person making the decision. On a larger scale, major decisions have to be made in the workplace. These decisions are important because they can affect many different aspects of a business. Decision making in the workplace...
Words: 672 - Pages: 3
...Risk Paper #1 – New Vehicle Purchase Risk Assessment Introduction Whenever considering a major purchase in life one must carefully consider the risks associated with making these purchase decisions. These decisions should be treated as projects in such a way that proper planning, analysis, risk assessment and contingency should all be aspects of the purchase process whether formal or informal. Purchasing a new vehicle, like so many other major purchases (likely the second largest purchase one may make in their lives behind purchasing a new home), is no exception. Several risks accompany these decisions, these risks rank from high probability – high risk to low probability – negligible risk. Analysis Many factors contribute to the frequency and likelihood of risks as well as the severity of these risks. When considering purchasing a new vehicle careful consideration must be taken before signing a contract and driving the vehicle off of the lot. Each buyer will undoubtedly rank these risks differently; however the following analysis represents how one individual may assess these risks. Risk 1 – Needs Family and career needs are typically a high priority not only when purchasing a new vehicle, but also when considering the necessity of a new vehicle. Possibly one’s family is growing and the two seat sports car just will not cut it anymore. When considering a new vehicle this is often a priority for young families and must be considered as a high priority risk, making sure...
Words: 849 - Pages: 4
...who helped directly or indirectly, for the successful completion of this term paper. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement…………………................................ | Page1 | Table of Contents……………........................................ | Page 2 | Introduction……………………………….......................... | Page 3 | Body………………..……………………………….................... | Page 4-16 | Conclusion……………………………................................. | Page 17 | Bibliography..……………………………........................... | Page 18 | INTRODUCTION Decision making can be regarded as an outcome of mental processes leading to the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice. Human performance in decision making terms has been the subject of active research from several perspectives. From a psychological perspective, it is necessary to examine individual decisions in the...
Words: 3045 - Pages: 13
...resource conditions. Managerial Decision Making • Management decisions often involve the projection of consequences into a highly uncertain future. • Management decisions have enormous variety and most decisions depend on the decision context. • Management decisions can relate to both repetitive and unique situations. • Management decisions often have to be taken on an imperfect knowledge of underlying phenomena. • Management decisions often have to be taken on basis of untested cause-effect relationships. Data for Managerial Decision Making • All the data required for taking good managerial decisions is rarely if ever available or complete. • Data used can range from subjective to objective. • Data used can range from quantified to judgmental. • Probability judgments, expectations and intuitions are needed to prop up management decisions. Good Managerial Decision Making • Managers often need to create new responses to managerial situations never experienced before. • Good managerial decisions making requires the ability to accumulate, classify, analyze and build upon a variety of earlier managerial situations and the managerial responses that were then evoked. • Managerial experience can over time build the intuition of practicing managers and help them improve judgmental ability to take better decisions. Case Analysis as Pedagogy Case analysis is a major pedagogy in management as: • ...
Words: 508 - Pages: 3
...(4) can lead to an increase in understanding and decrease in uncertainty, is called an information. Information is valuable because it can affect behavior, a decision, or an outcome. For example, if a manager is told his/her company's net profit decreased in the past month, he/she may use this information as a reason to cut financial spending for the next month. A piece of information is considered valueless if, after receiving it, things remain unchanged. For a technical definition of information see information theory. Data analysis is a practice in which raw data is ordered and organized so that useful information can be extracted from it. The process of organizing and thinking about data is a key to understanding what the data does and does not contain. There are a variety of ways in which people can approach data analysis, and it is notoriously easy to manipulate data during the analysis phase to push certain conclusions or agendas. For this reason, it is important to pay attention when data analysis is presented, and to think critically about the data and the conclusions which were drawn. Raw data can take a variety of forms, including measurements, survey responses, and observations. In its raw form, this information can be incredibly useful, but also overwhelming. Over the course of the data analysis process, the raw data is ordered in a way which will be useful. For example, survey results may be tallied, so that people can see at a glance how many people answered...
Words: 2607 - Pages: 11
