...FT SPECIAL REPORT World Economy Friday October 12 2012 www.ft.com/reports | twitter.com/ftreports Hopes turn to fear and uncertainty Answers to the big issues facing the global economy depend mainly on events in the US and eurozone, writes Chris Giles Meeting of minds: logo for the IMFWorld bank events beginning in Tokyo today Bloomberg Inside » Growth glitches FT specialists report from the eurozone, China, the US and the UK Pages 2, 3 If Obama wins . . . or Romney Some differences seem more symbolic than real Page 4 Cash conundrum The IMF and World Bank have plenty of money but face new challenges Page 5 A threat of double-dip recession is stalking the world economy. Advanced economies are struggling to raise insipid growth rates, while the fast-growing emerging economies cannot maintain their previous momentum. If anything goes wrong – and there are known potential shocks in the coming months – the risk is rising of a dangerous economic slide. The Brookings Institution-Financial Times Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery shows a steep drop in 2012 so far, leading professor Eswar Prasad of Brookings to describe the global economy as “on the ropes”. In the International Monetary Fund’s twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, published this week, Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief economist, said the world economy was hamstrung by uncertainty, which was pre- venting companies from investing and households from spending. “Worries about...
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...WP/13/266 Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff WP/13/266 © 2013 International Monetary Fund IMF Working Paper Research Department Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten1 Prepared by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Authorized for distribution by Stijn Claessens December 2013 This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Abstract Even after one of the most severe multi-year crises on record in the advanced economies, the received wisdom in policy circles clings to the notion that high-income countries are completely different from their emerging market counterparts. The current phase of the official policy approach is predicated on the assumption that debt sustainability can be achieved through a mix of austerity, forbearance and growth. The claim is that advanced countries do not need to resort to the standard toolkit of emerging markets, including debt restructurings and conversions, higher inflation, capital controls and other forms of financial repression. As we document, this claim is at odds with the historical track record of...
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...single-currency bloc expected to be negligible. Problems in some of the Eurozone’s big economies are worrying analysts. The situation in Italy, for instance, is quite dramatic, with the economy stagnating. In France, high public deficits are a big worry; such a policy could not be continued for much longer. Underperforming fellow Eurozone nations could affect Germany’s own economic growth prospects, since they are the customers for most of Germany’s exports; it is expected that Germany’s gross domestic product will expand by just 1 percent in 2015. Despite the evident problems in Eurozone, Germany and France are determined to restore a confidence to the Euro.’ Discuss the statement, and use examples to justify your opinion. 1.0 Introduction The Global Financial Crisis or the ‘great recession’ as it is now known has been widely regarded as the worst global recession since the end of the Great Depression (Drezner, 2014). The events following the collapse of the US housing market and the subsequent financial meltdown has had consequences on a global scale, nowhere is this more evident than in the Eurozone (Allen & Ngai, 2012). The Eurozone, made up of 19 EU member states that have adopted a common currency and monetary policy, have faced increasing levels of public debt, economic stagnation and civil unrest (Ucler et al. 2015). Problems are further compounded by the fact that there...
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...from the advanced economies will lead to growth although domestic conditions may also interfere with the growth. Although many emerging markets have started to benefit from increased external demand their domestic growth has been slower than expected, this has been attributed to political uncertainty, policies and bottlenecks, which has affected investments negatively. These countries include Brazil, Russia, Middle Eastern countries and North African Countries. (World Economic Outlook Update, January 2014) In the U.S, federal budget deficit has fallen and banks are recapitalizing and working off bad loans. There will be no additional fiscal austerity at the federal, state and local government level meaning that there will be no budget cuts, spending will likely remain the same or go up stimulating the economy, and accelerating GDP from an average of 2.2 in the last four years to 2.4 in 2014 and 3.2 in 2015. (World Economic Outlook Update, January 2014) IMF forecasts’ that Japan will grow 0.4 % to 1.7% (Tally 2014). The economic growth in China is expected to moderate from 7.7 to 7.6% in 2014. This is mainly due to the rising cost of capital and slowing credit growth caused by policy measures. India’s growth is also picking up due to stronger external demand....
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...GKCA Update 1st to 31st Dec Starred Articles 01 UN recognizes Palestine as a non-member observer state Dec World > Palestine The United Nations General Assembly has finally voted in favour of recognizing Palestine as a non-member observer state. Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, had earlier stated this recognition as the last resort to maintain peace and harmony with Israel. This recognition means that, Palestine can now participate in UN debates, join the affiliated bodies and have a voice in world affairs. The votes were as follows: 138 nations voted in favour of Palestine while 9 voted against the country. 41 nations chose to abstain from the voting procedure. The Palestinian reaction to the UN decision was ecstatic and celebratory parades were seen on the streets of Ramallah in Israel. However, some countries are against the decision. Israel said that this decision by the UN will put the peace process between Israel and Palestine “backwards”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his plans to expand settlement buildings in Palestinian territory despite the UN decision. The U.S. has said that the UN bid was "unfortunate". Opponents of the bid say a Palestinian state should emerge only out of bilateral negotiations. The countries of the world reacted majorly in support of Palestine. Countries like Britain, France, Spain, Sweden and Denmark made appeals to ambassadors in Israel to ask Prime Minister Netanyahu to reconsider his plan to erect close to 3...
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...The International Bond Market Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Yu Zhang 130023326 University of Dundee College of Arts and Social Sciences School of Business April 2014 Content Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 2 Literature review.................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 3 Data and Methodology....................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Data.............................................................................................................................................. 10 3.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 4 Four Central Banks’ Unconventional Monetary Policy Announcements Details ........ 13 4.1 Important Announcements........................................................................................................ 13 Table 1 Important announcements by the Federal Reserve ............................................................ 13 4.2 Quick Summary: .....................................................
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...Country Profiles Forex Traders' Guide to Major Economies Today we're going to take a trip around the world, but it ain't gonna take 80 days. If you're fast enough to keep up, we can probably get around in just 80 seconds! ...Not! In any case, we'll make sure you learn about the nitty-gritty of each major economy and what makes its engine go. For each country that we will be touring, we'll start off with a quick peek at the important facts and figures, followed by an overview of its economy. Once that's out of the way, we'll visit the country's central bank to find out some of their secrets. In this section, we will explore the powerful monetary policy tools central banks employ to control the country's economy. Hopefully, we'll stumble into the room where they keep their printing plates and we can sneak out the back door and sell it on the black market. We're kidding - we're here to teach you how to trade forex the legal way. After that, we'll discuss the important characteristics that differentiate that country's local currency from all the rest, as well as hard-hitting economic indicators for that country. To keep the trip interesting, we'll be dishing some trivia every now and trading tactics that will prove useful later on when you go off on your pip-catching adventure! And as we promised, this very exclusive field trip is covered by your scholarship. No need for travel visas and no need to buy a travel fanny. Although if you're paranoid like Huck, then go...
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...Financial Scandals and the Role of Private Enforcement: The Parmalat Case Law Working Paper N° 40/2005 May 2005 Guido Ferrarini University of Genoa, Centre for Law and Finance and ECGI Paolo Giudici Free University of Bozen and Centre for Law and Finance © Guido Ferrarini and Paolo Giudici 2005. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. This paper can be downloaded without charge from: http://ssrn.com/abstract=730403 www.ecgi.org/wp ECGI Working Paper Series in Law Financial Scandals and the Role of Private Enforcement: The Parmalat Case Working Paper N° 40/2005 May 2005 Guido Ferrarini Paolo Giudici This Working Paper is based upon a draft prepared for the EU Corporate Law Making Conference (Cambridge, October 29-30, 2004) organized by Harvard Law School and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich). The authors are grateful to Gerard Hertig, Mark Roe, Donald Langevoort, and other conference participants for helpful comments. Drafts of this paper were also presented at the Yale Law School Alumni Meeting on October 8-10, 2004; at a meeting of the Associazione Via Isonzo held in Milan on October 10, 2004; and at a seminar at the Institute of Law and Finance (ILF), University of Frankfurt, on January 18, 2005. The authors are grateful to Theodore Baums, Andreas Cahn, Carmine Di Noia, Jon Macey,...
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...robin blackburn THE SUBPRIME CRISIS I n the summer of 2007 many leading banks in the us and Europe were hit by a collapse in the value of mortgage-backed securities which they had themselves been responsible for packaging.* To the surprise of many, the poisonous securities turned out to constitute a major portion of their ultimate asset base. The defaults fostered a credit crunch as all financial institutions hoarded cash and required ever widening premiums before lending to one another. The Wall Street investment banks and brokerages haemorrhaged $175 billion of capital in the period July 2007 to March 2008, and Bear Stearns, the fifth largest, was ‘rescued’ in March, at a fire-sale price, by JP Morgan Chase with the help of $29 billion of guarantees from the Federal Reserve. Many of the rest only survived by selling huge chunks of preferred stock, with guaranteed premium rates of return, to a string of ‘sovereign funds’, owned by the governments of Abu Dhabi, Singapore, South Korea and China, among others. By the end of January 2008, $75 billion of new capital had been injected into the banks, but it was not enough. In the uk the sharply rising cost of liquidity destroyed the business model of a large mortgage house, leading to the first bank run in the uk for 150 years and obliging the British Chancellor first to extend nearly £60 billion in loans and guarantees to its depositors and then to take the concern, Northern Rock, into public ownership. In late January Société...
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...Threat of fiscal dominance? A BIS/OECD workshop on policy interactions between fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management after the financial crisis Basel, 2 December 2011 Monetary and Economic Department May 2012 Papers in this volume were prepared for the joint BIS and OECD workshop on “Policy interaction: fiscal policy, monetary policy and government debt management”, held in Basel on 2 December 2011. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or the central banks represented at the meeting. Individual papers (or excerpts thereof) may be reproduced or translated with the authorisation of the authors concerned. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2012. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1609-0381 (print) ISBN 92-9131-135-9 (print) ISSN 1682 7651 (online) ISBN 92-9197-135-9 (online) Preface The massive expansion of central bank balance sheets to contain the worst financial crisis in living memory raises questions about the theory and practice of monetary policy. The persistence in many advanced countries of large fiscal deficits and the prospect of high public debt/GDP ratios for many years is likely, at some point, to create policy dilemmas not only for central banks but also for public debt managers. Some countries have already had to cope with higher...
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...THE EURO IN CRISIS Objective Of Study The objective of the following study is to understand and analyse the recent euro debt crisis which led to the temporary fall of the euro. Through this study, attempt has been made to single out EU member countries and the events in those countries that led to the crisis. Policy recommendations have also been stated to further help the main objective of dissecting and understanding the problem. INTRODUCTION Over the last two years, the euro zone has been going through an agonizing debate over the handling of its own home grown crisis, now the ‗euro zone crisis‘. Starting from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and more recently Italy, these euro zone economies have witnessed a downgrade of the rating of their sovereign debt, fears of default and a dramatic rise in borrowing costs. These developments threaten other Euro zone economies and even the future of the Euro. Such a situation is a far cry from the optimism and grand vision that marked the launch of the Euro in 1999 and the relatively smooth passage it enjoyed thereafter. While the Euro zone may be forced to do what it takes, it is unlikely that the situation will soon return to business as usual on its own. Yet, this crisis is not a currency crisis in a classic sense. Rather, it is about managing economies in a currency zone and the economic and political tensions that arise from the fact that its constituents are moving at varying speeds, have dramatically different fiscal capacities...
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...Long-term Finance and Economic Growth Working Group on Long-term Finance The views expressed in this report are those of the Working Group on Long-term Finance and do not necessarily represent the views of the individual members of the Group of Thirty. ISBN 1-56708-160-6 Copies of this paper are available for $49 from: The Group of Thirty 1726 M Street, N.W., Suite 200 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel.: (202) 331-2472 E-mail: info@group30.org; www.group30.org Long-term Finance and Economic Growth Published by Group of Thirty© Washington, D.C. 2013 Table of Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Glossary .............................................................................................................................................................................................6 Foreword ..........................................................................................................................................................................................8 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................................................10 Working Group on Long-term Finance ................................................................................................................
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...서울대학교 法學 제51권 제3호 2010년 9월 125∼180면 Seoul Law Journal Vol. 51 No. 3 September 2010. pp. 125∼180 글로벌 금융위기와 금융산업의 구조재편* - 금융산업의 역사와 발전전략 1) 金 和 鎭 요 약 ** 이 논문은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 진행되어 온 미국과 유럽 금융산업의 재편 동향을 정리하고 그로부터 정책적 시사점을 찾기 위한 것이다. 특히, 미국에서 투자은행업과 상업은행업을 재분리하려는 개혁 움직임이 2010년 7월에 제정된 미국의 금융규제 개혁법에 어떻게 반영되었는지를 역사적 배경과 함께 살펴보았다. 현재 국내에서 진행 되고 있는 유니버설뱅킹과 메가뱅크 논의가 미국과 유럽에서의 움직임으로부터 어떤 영향을 받을 것인지를 진단하였고 미국과 유럽의 주요 은행들의 사례를 검토하였다. 이 논문은 미국에서의 논의는 미국 특유의 정치적 상황의 부산물이므로 미국에서의 제도변화 동향에 지나치게 민감하게 반응하지 않으면서 메가뱅크 계획보다는 유니 버설뱅크 계획을 추진하는 것이 바람직하다고 결론 내린다. 이 논문은 상업은행업과 투자은행업간의 업무 경계획정 기준은 상업은행은 국가가 제공하는 안전망의 보호 하에 있기 때문에 그를 망각하지 않는 범위 내에서만 영업활동이 허락되어야 한다는 것으로 설정하자고 제안한다. 주제어: 상업은행, 투자은행, 유니버설뱅킹, 미국 금융규제개혁법, 헤지펀드 * 이 논문은 필자가 2010년 4월과 8월에 각각 한국금융투자협회에 제출한 연구보고서의 일부에 기초하였다. 이 논문에 귀중한 코멘트를 해 주신 심사위원님들께 감사드린다. ** 서울대학교 법과대학⋅법학대학원 부교수. 126 서울대학교 法學 제51권 제3호 (2010. 9.) I. 머리말 1. 문제 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 새로운 국제금융질서를 모색하기 위한 범세계적인 노력이 전개되고 있다. 특히, 자본시장과 금융회사들에서 발생한 리스크가 적절히 통제되지 못하고 금융위기의 직접적인 원인이 되었으므로 이에 관한 문제의 포착과 해법의 발견에 많은 노력이 기울여지고 있다. 과도하게 복잡해지고 지나친 레버리 지를 사용한 금융상품의 거래 비중이 높아졌으나 그에 대한 각국 정부의 감독부족과 시장 투명성 확보 실패, 금융회사의 내부통제 기능 마비가 문제였음이 지적된다. 통상 서브프라임 모기지 시장의 붕괴와 파생금융상품의 과도한 판매와 유통이 금융 위기의 직접적인 원인이 되었다고 지적되나1) 글로벌 금융위기는 아직도 계속되고 있기 때문에 그 원인에 대한 본격적인 학술적인 연구는 아직 출현이 이르다. 금융 위기의 과정과 거대 금융기관들의 몰락, 구조조정을 다루는 책과 논문들이 이제 서서히 등장하고 있을 뿐이다. 아마도 이는 후세의 역사가들에게 1차 세계대전의 원인이 어디에 있었는지를 규명하는 작업처럼 어려운 과제가 될 것이다. 글로벌 금융위기의 발원지인 미국에서는 포괄적인 금융개혁이 진행되고 있으며 그 중 가장 중요한 것으로 상업은행업무와 투자은행업무를 다시 분리시키려는...
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