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Measles Mathematical Model

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UCI Program in Public Health Seminar Series
Andrew Noymer, Ph.D. and Katelyn C. Corey
“I’m going to Disneyland”, Or: what levels of vaccination are necessary for measles control and eradication?”
Monday, May 4, 2015
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Calit2 Auditorium * Presentation is based on a mathematical model of measles transmission in developing countries * Rescheduled seminar due to Stéphane Helleringer, Ph.D inability to attend * Corey UCI public health major, fall graduate school in UCLA * Noymer Ph.D in sociology from UCBerkeley * M.Sc., London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine * Is now an associate professor in population health and disease prevention in public health school UCI * Ross Model of malaria, 1911 * Dm/dt = bf’ (1-m) vm * Where m is malaria rate in humans, b is mosquito bite rate, f = Pr (infectious|infected) f’ for mosquitos, density of mosquitos: a: overall u: infected, v is the recovery rate, h is the hatch (birth) rate of mosquitos * 2 equation ODE model * Feedback loop * This equation had remained influential to this day * You do not get measles twice * Kermack-mckendrick model

* Measles is a viral disease of humans caused buy the measles virus * Highly contagious * Family of paramyxoviridae * Prodrome period * Said it came 10,000 years ago when we tried to domesticate wild dogs * Vaccine preventable * R0 measures how highly contagious a pathogen is * R0>16 * Can change from population to population * No single R0 for measles * Related to canine distemper virus and other morbilliviruses * Measles is not like chicken pox, the rash is different * Affects epithelial tissue * Measles causes viral exanthema (morbilliform rash). Cough, fever, runny nose, and...

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