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Metabical

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Submitted By emont31
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1. ¿Cómo se compara Metabical con las actuales opciones de pérdida de peso?
Es un medicamento por prescripción médica que se concentra en un nicho de mercado, que son las personas que quieren perder peso en forma moderada. No está prometiendo que atacara la obesidad se enfoca en tratar desordenes metabólicos. Además está ofreciendo ser el medicamento que validada por la FDA y ocasiones daños o efectos secundarios pequeños, y no está dirigido en una persona con altos niveles de obesidad, como ha pasado con la otras soluciones del mercado, Que no son validados por la FDA y que son clasificados como suplementos alimenticios. Metabical, será el primero en su ramo de medicamentos ya que está diseñado para gente con un índice de masa muscular entre 25 y 30 (sobre peso) aprobado por la FDA ya que para estos rangos no existe ningún tipo de medicamento, todos estaban enfocados a Obesidad y Obesidad Extrema entre 30 y 40 de índice de masa muscular; los medicamentos de los rangos altos (Sibutramina y Orlistat), han presentado con contraindicaciones importantes de hígado y vesícula por lo cual solo estaban autorizados a un rango distinto de Índice de masa muscular.
Este será un medicamento que ataque dos puntos al suprimir el apetito por un lado y por otro contará con un bloqueador de absorción de grasa. Meta bical ha dado resultados en 12 semanas perdiendo las personas de 10 a 30 libras. Se estima que además de enfocarse a la pérdida de peso se logrará generar mejores hábitos alimenticios en los consumidores, ya que tiende a causar molestias cuando se ingieren alimentos en acceso o altos en calorías además de que en sus pruebas se demostró que el peso reducido logró ser mantenido hasta 3 años después de haber tomado el tratamiento.

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2. ¿Cuáles son los pros y los contras de los métodos de pronóstico presentados por Printup? Si usted tuviera que estimar la demanda de este producto. ¿Cómo lo haría?, ¿Cómo sería su pronóstico de demanda para los primeros cinco años?
Los métodos de demanda presentados por Printup son:

1) Plantea la demanda en base al número de gente con sobrepeso en EUA (con índice de masa corporal entre los 25 y 30) y acercándose a los de un rango del 35%, pero de los cuales solo el 15% estaría confortable con comprar medicamento para este propósito. Estima obtener el 10% del mercado el primer año y 5% adicional hasta llegar al 30% en el quinto año. 2) Usa los resultados obtenidos por la encuesta de CPS, basándose nuevamente en el número de gente con sobre peso en EUA, solo tomando en cuenta al 12% que está listo para comprar inmediatamente el producto. Estima obtener el 10% del mercado el primer año y 5% adicional hasta llegar al 30% en el quinto año.

3) Se enfoca al mercado objetivo, el cual es dirigido a Mujeres entre 35 y 65 años con Índice de Masa Muscular entre 25 y 30. Esto implica 3.4 millones de usuarios potenciales. Con este escenario espera tener el 30% del mercado en el año 1 incrementando en 5% hasta llegar al 50% en el año 5.

Información del caso Harvard *

Los escenarios que demuestran más estabilidad son el primero y el último. El segundo nos da un mercado muy agresivo tomando una base muy amplia, es importante mencionar que la publicidad del producto y el mercado objetivo está representada en el último escenario.

Algunos de los contras de los pronósticos de Printup, se relacionan con que no toma en cuenta todos los determinantes de la demanda. Por ejemplo ella claramente toma en cuenta para sus pronósticos el número de consumidores en el mercado (N), el precio de los bienes relacionados (Pr) como el Alli, sin embargo este puede adquirirse sin prescripción a diferencia del Metabical, y otros métodos de reducción de peso que no van necesariamente ligados a pagar consultas médicas para obtener la prescripción del Metabical.

Hablando del ingreso del consumidor meta (M), éste no es tomado en cuenta por Printup para sus pronósticos, el ingreso además es muy importante para determinar la elasticidad precio de la demanda, sabiendo que cuanto mayor sea la proporción del gasto que ocupa la compra de un bien mayor es su elasticidad precio, hallar la elasticidad precio de la demanda le permitirá a Printup tener mayor control del rango de precios que ella puede manejar en su propuesta.

Lo recomendable es trabajar sobre el escenario de demanda 1) ya que este no es tan agresivo como el segundo además de mostrar un mercado mucho más amplio que solo enfocarse a las mujeres que estén dentro del rango mencionado del Índice de Masa Muscular, ya que se ha demostrado que en la actualidad, el hombre actual también esta preocupado por su apariencia y salud, de tal forma que usar el escenario 3) estaría dejando fuera un mercado potencial para el medicamento.

3. ¿Qué consideraciones deberían tomarse en cuenta el tomar decisiones sobre la cantidad de contenido en los paquetes? ¿Qué tamaño del paquete recomendaría usted?
Debemos tomar en cuenta la frecuencia con la que las personas regresan con el doctor para pedir la receta, el dinero que el individuo deberá pagar, la posibilidad de no terminar el tratamiento por ir a comprar tantas veces el productos, los paquetes que ofrece los producto sustitutos, y los estándares que la industria farmacéutica ha establecido para establecer las dosis requerida. Pudiendo ser semanal o una dosis para tres meses.
Si comparamos los costos por productos “farmacéuticos” presentados en el Anexo 2 del caso, tenemos un costo de entre $190 Alli y $300 OTC para 3 meses de producto, lo cual hace relativamente más caro Metabical al ofrecer en el mejor de los casos de acuerdo al anexo 3, producto para 4 semanas en $300 y hasta $600 bajo el escenario de marginar de acuerdo al excedente que el mercado está dispuesto a pagar año contra año en el cuidado y mantenimiento del peso.| y además daría un flujo de efectivo de entre $50 y $150 dólares dependiendo del escenario de precios que decida la compañía
4. ¿Qué estrategia de precios sugeriría usted a Printup que explorara? ¿Cuáles son las ventajas y desventajas de cada estrategia? ¿Qué precio recomendaría usted?
Printup, propone tres estrategias de precios:
La primera estrategia consiste en realizar el “pricing” en base al mercado, esto quiere decir tomar como base el precio de un medicamento similar al Metabical $ 75 por 4 semanas. La gran ventaja de realizar esto es que toma en cuenta la demanda de los precios de los bienes relacionados o sustitutos y permite ser competitivos en costo para el cliente. La desventaja es que no será competencia si no determina la elasticidad precio para determinar que tanto puede subir el precio.
La segunda estrategia que consiste en colocar el margen de ganancia de acuerdo a los productos actuales de la compañía los cuales ganan el 70% en promedio, por lo cual el precio debería ser $125 x 4 semanas. La ventaja de este modelo es que el margen de utilidad es muy importante y ayudaría a lograr el retorno de inversión inicial más rápido. La desventaja es que este incremento de utilidad es de 75% con respecto al precio del bien sustituto o parecido, y pone atrás en el mercado por lo que deberá sacar la elasticidad del precio del producto y considerar los determinantes de la demanda
El tercera estrategia estuvo basado en asumir que gente con sobre peso gasto más que los años anteriores en salud por lo que el precio alcanzaría $150 por 4 semanas. La ventaja de esta estrategia es que se podría asumir un incremento del 100% contra el precio del medicamento más parecido. La desventaja es que se debe determinar si existe una modificación en el ingreso de la población objetivo o al menos del mercado, para ver si este incremento en el gasto corresponde a un incremento en el ingreso del consumidor.

5. ¿Qué impacto sobre la rentabilidad tiene su decisión de precios? ¿Cuál es la ROI para los primeros cinco años para cada estrategia de precios identificada?
Datos a considerar $1.2 millones costos fijos, $23 Millones gastos MKT y $400 Millones investigación y Desarrollo

Escenario de demanda 1)

Escenario de demanda 2)

Escenario de demanda 3)

De acuerdo a los cálculos anteriores, la mejor rentabilidad así como el mejor retorno sobre la inversión sin duda se tiene en el escenario 3) con el mayor precio de venta con un ROI mayor. Es importante mencionar que hemos asumido recuperar la inversión en 5 años; de mover este dato a un menor plazo la tasa del ROI disminuirá.

6. Bibliografía
“Metabical: Pricing, Packaging and Demand Forecasting for a New Weight-Loss Drug, John A Quelch, Heather Beckham, Harvard Business School, April 14, 2010.

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