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Minimum Wage Analysis

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Maybank IB Research
PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

Economics & Market Update

2 May 2012

Minimum Wage

Labour Day “Gift”
Another SRI delivered. PM Najib announced the country’s minimum wage policy on the eve of Labour Day. The National Minimum Wage Policy is part of the Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRI) for Human Capital Development under the Economic Transformation Programme. The minimum wage is set at MYR800-MYR900 per month with some allowances or fixed cash payments allowed to be considered in the calculation for minimum wage. It will be enforced six months from the date the Order is gazetted and will benefit 3.2m private sector workers (26%) out of the 12.3m total employment in the country. Impact on inflation should be gradual. Labour costs account for 9% of total production costs for the whole economy. But with only 26% of workers to benefit from the minimum wage, this group, at most, constitutes only 2.4% of total production cost, we estimate. According to a World Bank study in 2011, Malaysia’s wage growth (2.6% p.a.) was slower than productivity growth (6.7% p.a.), implying the capacity to implement minimum wage without causing excessive inflation rate pressures. We expect a gradual impact on inflation and maintain our inflation rate forecasts of 2.7% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Gradual implementation to help manage the impact. The impact on other macroeconomic variables like employment and investment can only be gauged after some time since this is the first time an economywide minimum wage is being implemented. The Government is obviously trying to manage and mitigate any adverse impact by gradually implementing minimum wage. The 6-12 month enforcement timeframe means that the minimum wage will come around the time for Budget 2013, where there might be announcements of measures and incentives to incentives and assistances for employers – especially SMEs and

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