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Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond the Election, by Charles Soludo on January 25, 2015 / in Elections 2015, Viewpoint 9:41 am / Comments
I need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony. Having had my own share of public service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy. But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns.
In September 2010, I wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and published by Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections, literally everything we hinted at has happened. Part of my motivation for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not happening.
The presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim. A plan without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance and the strategy to fix it.
In response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in a year. Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by corruption-free, cost-effective means. Did I hear that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this programme alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.
I have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP, given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their programmes. Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc? I remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he reeled out figures about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.

*Jonathan and Buhari
Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’. Austerity? This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices. History repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government, oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period, Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982, the National Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity Measures) Act in one day— going through the first, second, and third readings the same day. The austerity measures included the rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears. Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’. General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and restoration of discipline the cardinal point of their administration which lasted for 20 months. I am not sure they had a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although it must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they left office was a just46%— according to the Federal Office of Statistics).
We have come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong choices. We have always known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling. First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating.
I note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external debt, and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global financial and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion. Recall also that our exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves. My calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign reserves should have been between $102 –$118 billion and exchange rate around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125 per dollar.
Third, the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom had no parallel in the world. While the Obasanjo administration bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current government has sold and constricted it. What debt relief did for Nigeria was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities of the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its public policy. How have we used the independence? Through our own choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor institutions/governments which are organized under the Paris club but largely to private agents which is even more volatile. We call it domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what percentage of it is held by foreign private agents? And I understand the Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed of capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in foreign reserves. I am just smiling!
In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over $50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69% in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%. This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.
One theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order. First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon.
We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!
One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi. He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty—- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238% deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening.
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor— Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period. Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom. Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written press conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this the record to defend? Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of government as policymakers and most government institutions have largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for another day.
So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best, laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect them and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the gallery and just to pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law and due process. Getting things done in a democracy requires complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature, labour, the media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched. Second, the size, structure and institutions of the economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy, especially the capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding constraints and discipline on any regime. Third, dealing with most of the other issues— insecurity, unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc, require increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending when the economy is on the reverse gear?
If oil prices remain between 40- 60 dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime guarantees that foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with the attendant exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private sector with vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the current government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural adjustment’. With falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can see any belated attempt by the government to deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty labour. I worry about regime stability in the coming months, and I do not envy the next team.
The seeming crisis is not destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and mineral rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the margins. In totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do more of the same, with minor amendments on the system of sharing and consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the system for productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to implement the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for at least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not heard anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.
In Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the capacity to overcome severe challenges. The first was under President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP). I want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at 42% in 1992.
Under our democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy (with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income growth for the decade). His regime consolidated and deepened the market economy structures (consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new awareness and boom in the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence from the World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and privatization including the unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural revolution that saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors; establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and growth of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption, etc). The economy roared to average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70% in1999 to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of the economy and chairman of the economic management team— which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily. In other words, he did not outsource economic management.
We expected that the next government after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the 7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty slogans without content or direction.
Let me suggest that the fundamental challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed around the goal of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to have a dent on unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to deliver this within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends in oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security, power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve this objective.
So far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs. This sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants into the labour market per annum exceed two million. If it was intended as a joke, APC must please get serious. On the other hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for doing so is a Job Board— another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the limits.
I heard one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to have added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60% of graduates of our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why many of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they would have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league of the best 200 universities in the world. That would have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system of coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day. Only the President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan. Let us know how you arrived at the figures. Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him, and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation.
Surprisingly, none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the naira the de facto currency of ECOWAS or the international financial centre that can attract more than $100 billion per annum. Where is the strategy for orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the economy during this downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by Nigeria refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union is not even being mentioned. President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not understand the import of that? It will be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic alliances within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity.
If Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”. Most people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would vote for President. He responded: “If they no rig the election, na Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his next response sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see another face for that villa”. But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief and the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc. As a first point, Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent, credible agenda that is consistent with the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible development agenda to Nigerians.
The second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and transform from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to build a true political party with a soul from the patchwork of political associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to govern. This should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of people held together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure how many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces. The lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and mobilize capacities for national transformation. In Nigeria’s history, the two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be magnanimous in victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for the rescue mission.
If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him a second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown. As a friend summed it: the devil you know is better than the angel you do not know. One person assured me that we would see a ‘different Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of history on his presidency so far. I just pray that he is right. In that case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two issues:
First, beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with the sing-song of transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name in history. Propaganda won’t do it.
Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria. He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not re-elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few years. On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded economic management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to identify seven iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same framework to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr. President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko tree, that stands out. Think about this. The beginning of wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that he is racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not looking great. You need a team of big and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working!
Under the executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a federal coordination of the economy, and that function is performed by the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy. All major economic institutions of the federal government are, by law, chaired by the Vice-President including the national planning (see functions of the national planning commission as coordinator of federal government economic and development programmes), debt management office, National Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman of National Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the federal planning and coordination. Then the Constitution mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and state governors as members—to coordinate national economy between federal and states. No minister is a member of NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of our constitution and the role of the VP. Of course, the buck stops on the desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that you are in power, truth will only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this bitter truth.
Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!
Chukwuma Charles Soludo, CFR, was former CBN Governor.
- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/01/buhari-vs-jonathan-beyond-election-charles-soludo/#sthash.k31eCxGK.dpuf

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...November 20, 2012 Good morning. I am here to inform you the next report about nutrition on people in nowadays. We are going to mention recently surveys made by Herbalife International of America where state how people from the XXI century are taking care of their bodies. Then, how nutrition can affect your life and how you can improve it with Herbalife natural products. Starting consuming nutritional products is necessary to have a good life away from diseases and the products from Herbalife are the solution. Let’s start with the next statement “The most Americans don’t get enough vitamins and nutrients” according to recently surveys made by scientist from Herbalife International of America. The surveys stressed the lack of vitamins and nutrients people have stopped eating and instead of it, they started eating junky food like for example McDonald, or BurgerKing. In my personal experience when I was thirteen I had problems with my overweight and high blood pressure. It was mainly because my family just did not know about the risk of fast food, neither did I. It was a dream to being eating all that tasty but at the same time fatty food. Until, the doctor told me to stop eating it and to start a balance diet full on vitamins and nutrients. I was fighting against it for the next three years after the doctor told me to do that, so my mother find this company Herbalife International of America and we decided to give it a try. We’ve discussed about the how junk food can easily...

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...The School Access to Emergency Epinephrine Act (S.1884 and H.R 3627) is a bill that will inspire states to enact laws that will permit schools to keep stock epinephrine (epipen) in the school medicine cabinet. The epinephrine will not be prescribed for any particular student and will be readily available for any student having anaphylaxis. The bill will also allow school staff to administer epinephrine without any liability. Moreover, any school that adopts this legislation will be given preferences when applying for asthma related government grants from health and human resources department (TheHill.com, 2012). Just recently, a first grader, Amarria Johnson of Virginia State died after experiencing an episode of anaphylaxis from eating peanut. Her death could have been prevented, but the school had no epinephrine on hand to save her life(TheHill.com,2012).According to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (2011),the delay in using epinephrine is closely associated with death from anaphylaxis,expecially anaphylaxis resulting from peanuts allergy (niaid,2011).Symptoms of anaphylaxis include itching ,swelling of lips and tongue, tightness of throat, skin hives, vomiting, diarrhea ,cramps, shortness of breath, cough, wheezing, weak pulse, dizziness and passing out (niaid,2011). According to Gregory Nancy (July 2012), about eight percent of American children are affected by allergies. Six million children have food allergy and about forty percent of......

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...Enrico (“Rico”) Bandello who epitomized the rise and fall of the gangster. Edward G. Robinson was the first Gangster star in this genre. These career criminals live double lives as respectable business men, who defy the law, and are tough who also operate under a cloak of fear portrayed as respect. The popularity and appeal of these films during the 30’s was divided among the public. Some would see these films as a sort of participation in the rebellion against a failed government and others would see them as revenge against the bad guys. Hollywood would put the gangster in a mostly retributive frame with the negativity of the gangster myth ratifying the belief in the public enemy system. This would be seen as the result of the collapse of law enforcement in a society or loss of morality, and ultimately social disorder. William Wellman’s The Public Enemy (1931) starred James Cagney as the fast talking and cocky Tom Powers and his most famous line, “I’m on top of the world Ma!” This is an example of a well dressed man with street smarts who is a criminal bootlegger and womanizer. One of the films most controversial and pivotal scenes is when Tom Powers assaults his floozy girlfriend with a grapefruit by slamming it into her face at the breakfast table. Howard Hawkins “Scarface: The Shame of a Nation” (1932) starred Paul Muni as a Immature, power hungry, monstrous and beastly hood in prohibition era Chicago, whose character was loosely based on Al Capone. This is the first......

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... Contents Title Page Dedication Prologue CHAPTER ONE: Republicans and Democrats CHAPTER TWO: Values CHAPTER THREE: Our Constitution CHAPTER FOUR: Politics CHAPTER FIVE: Opportunity CHAPTER SIX: Faith CHAPTER SEVEN: Race CHAPTER EIGHT: The World Beyond Our Borders CHAPTER NINE: Family Epilogue Acknowledgments About the Author Also by Barack Obama Copyright Prologue IT’S BEEN ALMOST ten years since I first ran for political office. I was thirty-five at the time, four years out of law school, recently married, and generally impatient with life. A seat in the Illinois legislature had opened up, and several friends suggested that I run, thinking that my work as a civil rights lawyer, and contacts from my days as a community organizer, would make me a viable candidate. After discussing it with my wife, I entered the race and proceeded to do what every first-time candidate does: I talked to anyone who would listen. I went to block club meetings and church socials, beauty shops and barbershops. If two guys were standing on a corner, I would cross the street to hand them campaign literature. And everywhere I went, I’d get some version of the same two questions. “Where’d you get that funny name?” And then: “You seem like a nice enough guy. Why do you want to go into something dirty and nasty like politics?” I was familiar with the question, a variant on the questions asked of me years earlier, when I’d first arrived in Chicago to work in low-income neighborhoods. It signaled......

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...Insurance for All: A Dream Come True Medical coverage in Africa is very low. Worst still, the underprivileged are excluded even from this very low coverage. For our dream to transform Africa into an island of prosperity to become reality, a number of initiatives such as providing medical coverage for the poor are necessary. This can be possible through the MC²s, which are actually rural development micro-banks whose mission is to drive the economic growth of the underprivileged, and because the underlying principle of the MC² approach is the pooling together of a community’s material and intellectual resources to promote its welfare. For the purpose of better understanding it is necessary to define micro-insurance and mutual association. A Mutual Association can be defined as “a not-for-profit-making and non compulsory association of people driven by solidarity and who through their contributions and by their democratic decisions undertake provident funding and mutual help to cover themselves against social risk.” Micro-insurance is a form of insurance requiring very low premiums from subscribers and whose objective is the optimum satisfaction of personal needs. Principles of A Mutual Association To achieve our objective to provide medical coverage to low and very low income people, we rely on the principle of collecting small amounts from every community member to ensure optimum satisfaction for the individual and the community as a......

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...No âmbito do trabalho proposto em aula, optamos por desenvolver a vertente da “República e Ordem: centenário da Guarda Nacional Republicana”. No seguimento, iniciámos a investigação, sendo que nos focámos, primeiramente, em obras gerais e, mais tarde, em bibliografia específica. Assim sendo, com o desenvolver da pesquisa, fomo-nos interessando pelo papel das Guardas precursoras da Guarda Nacional Republicana (Guarda Real da Polícia, Guarda Municipal) na Revolução de 5 de Outubro de 1911, e posteriormente, na composição da Guarda Nacional Republicana, ou seja, centrámo-nos no facto da Guarda Nacional Republicana ser a sucessora das extintas Guardas Municipais. Por conseguinte, tentámos desenvolver uma pesquisa que reunisse informações dos primórdios das forças de segurança pública até à criação da Guarda Nacional Republicana como a conhecemos. Pode-se dizer que a primeira instituição legal com funções de policiamento foi o Corpo de Quadrilheiros, que havia sido criado na sequência da crise de 1383-85, cuja direcção recaía no Condestável do Reino D. Nuno Alvares Pereira. Muito mais tarde, já no século XVIII, foi criada, pelo Marquês de Pombal, a Intendência-Geral da Polícia da Corte e do Reino, instituição que já contava, em larga medida, com uma organização bastante moderna. De seguida, em 1801, Pina Manique , intendente-geral da Polícia, criou a Guarda Real da Polícia de Lisboa, uma fusão do militar e do policial, que tinha por função velar pela execução da lei e......

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...Hardware Components |Components |Devices |Requirements Met | |Input Device |Wireless Keyboard |Create text documents with flexibility | | |All-in-One Scanner |Create digital copy of files | | |HD Web Cam w/ Mic |Create video and still image files | | |5-in-1 Card Reader |Creates copy video, still image files | | |Wireless Mouse |Allows flexibility of selection device | | | | | | | | | |Output Devices |23”HD 3D LED Monitor |High quality visual presentation | | |Wireless Laser Printer |High quality hardcopy presentation ...

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...APA TIPS I have graded your papers and looked at all the clinical logs, preceptor evals except those I sent an email to let them know what I am missing. So no email needs I got all "your stuff" I am returning your papers as an email attachment. I made corrections to help. I am not so strict with APA in that this is a little harder as a clinical paper. Know in the future APA gets graded tighter and tighter. So here are the most common mistakes made- I thought I sent an email early in the semester with some helpful hints, but maybe not. Keep these in mind it's what I see most often 1. Do not use etc. say and others or includes some of the following 2. With numbers if it's less than ten spell it out one two three and so on, 10 and above use it as 10, 11,12 unless If a sentence starts with a number you must spell it out. Example- One hundred percent of ...., Sixteen is the ...  Of course there are those exceptions like referring to the Twelve Apostles  If numbers are measurement then use them as is 5 minutes, 3 cm, 2 ml 3. What you write is always past tense it's over and everything could be completely different by the time someone reads it. You conducted a microsystems assessment and the findings were. When you include an article the author reported, the study demonstrated,  4. Check your outlines you always need a running head,  title page with the name of the paper, course name and number, your name, school name, instructor's name, date, headings and reference page is......

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...Developing Conceptual Framework Is An Impossible Possibility Accounting Essay Accounting is playing an important role in nowadays society. It provides financial information to the user to make business decision. However, accountants have to follow accounting standards when they are providing the information. We may question what the principle of those standards is. Financial accounting theory was created as the principle in making standards, and conceptual framework for accounting built up. This essay is going to talk about whether developing a conceptual framework is an impossible possibility. In order to talk about this, I am going through some history of accounting, the definition and compare the conceptual framework under different standards. Accounting was created for thousands years ago. It dates back more than 7,000 years which is the time of ancient Babylon, Assyris and Sumeria. (Friedlob, G. Thomas & Plewa, Franklin James, 1996) At that time, people did accounting for their personal need. With the change of the times, accounting no longer work for personal need. People need common standards for stakeholders to use when making decisions. Countries built up Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to set up rules for accountants to do accounting. When the business is becoming bigger, people find out that it is hard to understand other countries' accounting report. People need international standards, so some international standards come out, Such as......

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...Team 5 Charter TEAM MEMBERS 1. Awura Adwoa Ofosu-Anim 2. Tonia Ikharo 3. Asad Zuberi 4. Joshua Sanni     MISSION STATEMENT “Making effort to be involved in the learning process by working as a team for a common goal” VISION STATEMENT “To stand out in our endeavors” COMMON GOALS We will work together to effectively achieve tasks and team assignments.   I. Rules of engagement: 1. Meetings 2. Communication 3. Team members’ responses 4. Conflict Resolution 5. Leadership 6. Decision Making process MEETINGS Team members have to arrive 10 minutes before any scheduled meeting so that prior issues are discussed. Team meetings will be held at least once weekly and details will be sent out to members at least 24 hours before the scheduled time to allow ample time for preparations. COMMUNICATION We will be communicating via emails, our team whats app group, Skype, text messaging and phone calls. Each member is responsible to execute assigned roles and provide prompt feedback. TEAM MEMBERS’ RESPONSES Team members have a duty to always carry out assigned tasks and provide prompt feedback and should inform the team should in case they encounter any issues while carrying out such individual tasks, so that we can work our way around such hitches before deadlines. LEADERSHIP Informal leadership is practiced within the team. A facilitator role will be assigned prior to each meeting and rotated every time to give a chance to all team members to......

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...5.0 STRATEGIC INITIATIVES UNDERTAKEN BY CSC STEEL HOLDINGS BERHAD IN E-RECRUITMENT 5.1 ERP system CSC Steel Holding Berhad uses ERP systems to provide human resources management module within the enterprise and good human resources management, the main function covers the whole process of human resource needs, such as Attendance Management and General Affair Management. 5.1.1 Attendance Management * Mainly use to manage the employees attendance including shift work maintenance, attendance in-out time record, change shift, lateness and also leave application. CSC Steel Group can determine whether or not a business will be successful in the future. They must keep a track of employees. Monitoring attendance helps in the long term for a business, as an employer will be able to tell which employees arrive early, which arrive late and who has the most absences without any valid reason. This could help an employer in deciding which employees are most suitable to work in the business, having employees who arrive to work on time means that the day-to-day tasks of the organization will be fulfilled. Employees within an organization should know about their employer’s attendance and absence policy, so that they are aware of what is required of them. 5.1.2 General Affair Management * Function including employees’ data control & recruitment management system. Employers perform administrative tasks to ensure that their staffs can work efficiently. Equipment and machinery used in......

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...Conservatism Favours Pragmatism Over Principle.’ Discuss (45 Marks) Conservatism, like many other political ideologies has many factions within it. Traditional conservatism, especially paternalistic conservatism very much favours a pragmatic approach. This is the belief that behaviour should be shaped in accordance with practical circumstances and goals rather than principles, beliefs or ideological objectives. However with the introduction of the liberal new right conservatism due to the conservative view of economic and social breakdown, things have started to look a lot more ideological and challenged the pragmatic nature of conservatism. This is where the debate arises. Traditional conservatives undoubtedly favour a pragmatic approach rather than stick to the core ideologies of conservatism. Burke famously said ‘a state which doesn’t change cannot conserve’ which perfectly explains the traditional conservative favouritism towards pragmatism. If a government does not change in order to help all aspects of society and bring in some kind of social reforms there will be revolt by the poor of the country. Conservatives hold this belief due to the belief that humans are naturally imperfect and therefore limited intellectually. Society is too complicated for human’s to fully understand and can therefore never fully understand the political system. Traditional conservatives are therefore suspicious of abstract ideas and systems of thought that claim to understand how......

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...Economy of a nation is a widely accepted indicator of the prosperity shared by the people of that country. We are acknowledged to be one of the fastest in climbing our economy ladder. While our economy is ranked third by the purchasing power parity and ninth in attaining a nominal GDP, we as citizens of a responsible nation, are working harder than ever before, and rejoicing the statistical improvements pertaining to these economic jargons. However, we still are unaware, by and large, of the disparity between what we call the progress in creation of wealth and the true measure which comprehensively defines the overall well being of human life in a society. The human development index (HDI) is now invariably accepted as the ‘real’ parameter to work upon, before being considered in the league of developed nations. In 2011, India was ranked 134th on the human development index. It is needless to point out that literacy and quality of education, makes a very important contribution to the improvement of HDI for a nation. Indian education sector needs to be revamped at a mass scale. The education sector in our country is bi-partite, where public participation is paralleled by a private section. The government participation started right after independence, with the aim of fulfilling the expanding educational needs of a newly made, yet poorly literate nation. Given the fact that missionaries, charitable lot of schools and other not-for- profit organizations have done their best,......

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